Topps increased their production run significantly in 1980?

ClockworkAngel

So we all know Topps and the rest don't release production numbers. I'm not sure the harm in releasing production numbers 30-40 years old but so it is.
PSA has turned into a reliable source for us to try to gauge and guess these numbers just by sheer volume of cards graded.

One interesting thing I noticed....

There have been a fairly similar number of the major Rookie Card Hall of Famers of the 70's graded. Winfield, Brett, Yount, Molitor, Ozzie, etc. None of them exceed 5,000 cards. Suddenly you get to 1980, and there have been 11,776 Rickey Hendersons submitted. it would stand to reason that anyome that has any of those card would sub them, but obviously there are many many more Hendersons out there. It's not like someone would sub a Henderson and not an Ozzie right?

Do you think that means that Topps doubled their production run in 1980? Why else would there be double the Hendersons to the Ozzie Smiths?

handyman

Those numbers dont show all the truth. Also take into fact that in say for example 1975, more moms or collectors lost or threw away there cards. So that can explain why there are only 5k of X 1975 Rookie Vs 11K of x rookie 1980.
There are other factors you need to use in this equation.

Dpeck100

In terms of the Ozzie Smith keep in mind that card comes off centered in many cases so less would be graded in relation to the Henderson which has much better centering on average.

Probstein123

I'd 1974 and 1975 were the first big jumps...1980 then had more huge jumps, a 1980 schmidt was practically in every pack

EAsports

The notoriously bad centering on the Ozzie there are so many more Hendersons graded than Ozzies.

Not that I don't think that production didn't increase, just that basing your hypotheses on that is probably flawed.

mattinglymint23

Thanks for crushing my hopes on a strong sale of my recently graded psa 8 Henderson

Aric

I love the topic of production numbers. I've got a work-in-progress spreadsheet of production numbers of some modern sets that I plan on posting in the near future. I think you guys will be surprised at how low the production is, even for common stuff like Topps Chrome.

As far as the pop report, another thing to think about is that a lot of cards being submitted are cards that have been ripped from packs recently. So I think the numbers you see, especially as it increases now that we are 20 years into the era of card grading, are more a measure of what is available in unopened packs versus what was printed.

handyman

You cant say that and not share! JK.
But would love to see some of the numbers you have come up with on the modern stuff.

wallst32

I didn't check any others but the 75T Brett POP is 5700+.

Grading is more or less for advanced collectors who are less likely to submit cards in lower grade. It's comparatively much harder to find higher grade 75T versus 80T so it would make sense that there are more submissions for the 80T Henderson. On the flip side I bet you'll find a lot more EX or lower Brett rookies than Henderson.

Guys like Eck and Ozzie tend to have lower POPs because they weren't always considered "star" cards. Even Nolan Ryan did not get popular until around 88-89. I remember my local card shop owner telling me he was spending hours at night going through his literally hundreds of 60s-70s monster boxes to pull Ryan cards when he started getting hobby recognition. Ryan was barely a "star" card 87 and prior. Dealers were probably less likely to go back and search for your Ozzies and Ecks.

ClockworkAngel

That makes sense. People are more likely to send in a high grade card and the Henderson is easier to get centered

Why do you guys think Topps won't release the production numbers?

corncobb

The population report is also tainted by the "Crack and resub" program

detroitfan2

<< <i>I'd 1974 and 1975 were the first big jumps...1980 then had more huge jumps, a 1980 schmidt was practically in every pack >>



Mike Schmidt was a double print in 1980 which is why he was so plentiful.

olb31

<< <i>Plus I have a sub of 5,000 Ozzie Smiths waiting to go in so ... >>



Dang, that beats my 2,500 mike schmidt rookies I just submitted last week.