POLL: How long until LEGEND sells the 1794 SP66 $1?

keyman64

People have been talking about, the owners have spoken and now you can cast your vote!

magikbilly

Poll, not contest?

Just kidding

Eric

keyman64

<< <i>Poll, not contest?

Just kidding

Eric >>

I thought about it but I am a low-roller, not a high-roller. Maybe someone else will want to step up to sponsor a contest and create a contest thread of the closest guess of the exact date that it sells? And another contest for the amount that it sells for next time? But to start that thread now when it could be several years out seems a bit ambitious.

Moldnut

I wouldnt think someone would put out that kind of money without a buyer already in mind.

PreTurb

Yup, that's a lot of money tied up.

CoinZip

<< <i>I wouldnt think someone would put out that kind of money without a buyer already in mind. >>

LanceNewmanOCC

.
guess i'll take the opposite position.

it is a fantastic marketing tool for the brand

possibly can make many millions just from saying "we own the most valuable coin in the world that sold at auction"

no less than 3 years

just imo
.

Lakesammman

It's such a personal decision - I'd flip a 1913 5c in a heart beat - ugly design, questionable origins, made famous by early hype - - the 1794 $1 is a killer coin and would be much harder to part with.

magikbilly

<< <i>.
guess i'll take the opposite position.

it is a fantastic marketing tool for the brand

possibly can make many millions just from saying "we own the most valuable coin in the world that sold at auction"

no less than 3 years

just imo
. >>



Hi Lance,

From watching, reading online and here I am inclined to agree with you. Bruce said something to the effect that the fame of having/buying the first $10 mill coin was worth 500K and I also read it was somehow considered as a brand, representation or image thing for Legend. 3 years seems a good number.

Best wishes,
Eric

Justacommeman

I think you guys are wrong. Unless Laura and TDN are blowing smoke up my tukas which I seriously doubt they aim to keep this piece. They want to own it for all the right reasons. For sure it was not bought with customer in mind. Legend was the customer for this coin. Laura couldn't have been more adamant or direct to me. Same with Bruce.

People will believe what they want to believe no matter what. It makes for good conversation. Carry on

MJ

Justacommeman

I'll take all action within reason on those who polled at 2 years or under. PM me with your terms

MJ

keyman64

My thoughts are these. 7-10 years maybe but they would be smart to hold it for 10+. My fancy opinion.

JohnnyCache

I voted 7-10 years.

10 years may be just the sweet spot to release this coin to a new buyer.

coindeuce

I can see their timeline following the reappearance of either the 1933 Saint or the Class I 1804 Dollar in the market. These coins are among the few that currently have the potential to eclipse the 1794 Dollar in a global market for ultra rarities. I would even consider the 1787 Brasher Doubloon(EB on breast) as a formidable candidate.

7Jaguars

Pity the next buyer. Worth 500k to own it, might be worth multiples of that not to in the wrong economy.
Congrats to them on the buy though.

RYK

I think this poll is in poor taste.

keyman64

<< <i>I think this poll is in poor taste. >>

Sorry you think so RYK. I see why you might think that but I have clearly stated what I think in this thread and I did NOT go with a short time frame guess...which would be in poor taste. I hope they own it for 10+ years especially so it can stay in the United States of America! I certainly do not want it sold off to Asia. I just thought it might be fun to revisit a thread like this when the coin does come up for sale again so we can see what people were thinking way back when, that's all. Only the best of intentions here. I find this time in numismatics to be quite exciting and only wish the best for the buyer and seller.

LochNESS

I chose 15+ years because:

They are genuine coin lovers not just for-profit business. This is the ultimate coin and they had to have it.

Their press release clearly states this dollar will be the flagship of their brand and marketing.

I would be surprised if they sold it.

shorecoll

You can love coins as much as you want, but if you get the chance to make a 50% flip in a week, a business should do that. $5M would be worth $5M in advertising, as opposed to $500k.

I think Laura stated the terms, they would sell it as part of a "serious" collection. So if someone gave them $25M to put together a serious collection including that coin, it might go in <1 year.

IMHO.

PerryHall

How long did they have the 1913 Liberty nickel before they sold it?

PerryHall

<< <i>I think this poll is in poor taste. >>



Is it in poor taste for a coin dealer to hype a new purchase here and ATS?

giorgio11

The 1794 dollar is a fantastic marketing tool for Laura, Bruce, and Legend. I suppose she/they will ride it for all it's worth, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. As far as I have seen, news of the new world record has not crossed over into the mainstream media (has anybody else seen such coverage yet?), but just imagine how much name recognition Legend is going to get from owning this coin. And keeping it.

I don't think it's a stretch to think that over the years the 1794 silver dollar might replace the 1943 copper pennies in the popular imagination as the iconic coin of our time. I know I sent the video to my dear Sis in Dallas who knows zilch about coins. She got a big kick out of it and had all kinds of questions about why it was so valuable.

I would like to see the eyeball count on Legend over the next few months; any marketer would bet that it's gonna zoom!

Best Regards,

George

Jcarney

Until the return can beat the market substantially. No one thought this had anything to do withcoin collecting, did they? This is big money investing.

roadrunner

<< <i>I think you guys are wrong. Unless Laura and TDN are blowing smoke up my tukas which I seriously doubt they aim to keep this piece. They want to own it for all the right reasons. For sure it was not bought with customer in mind. Legend was the customer for this coin. Laura couldn't have been more adamant or direct to me. Same with Bruce.

People will believe what they want to believe no matter what. It makes for good conversation. Carry on

MJ >>




The same general reasoning was given for long term ownership of the Seated Dollar set. But a peaking coin market and an offer that was too good to be refused resulted in a sale.
I don't expect anything different with the 1794 $. After all, it's only business. Businesses can't let their coins become too personal, especially a $10 MILL one. How many times
per year does Legend turnover their inventory? While the 1794 will draw in many new clients and continue to support the 6 and 7 figure coin market, the mileage gained eventually
starts to peter out. 6 months to 2 years is the optimum range, starting with summer ANA. In any case the coin isn't going to be held on to any longer than the current bull market
in coin rarities. Whether that's 2015, 2017, or 2019 remains to be seen. I certainly don't expect the current love of high priced rarities to last another 10-20 yrs. A cooling off period
has to be on the horizon. We're now at the 16 year point in the current rarities bull market cycle. What happens when the stock market eventually tanks this year or next year? Won't
that have a liquidity effect on big dollar US coins? Coins have done ok during the recessionary rebounds of 2002-2008 and now 2010-2013.

It's never in poor taste to hype a coin as long as you have the goods to support it. That would seem to be the case here. But I certainly understand the reasoning to state that they
were apparently willing to go as high as $15 MILL if needed (Legend Market Report). If a $15 MILL offer popped up tomorrow I think the coin would be gone. Or even $12-$13 MILL.
No one can know what other potential buyers are out there lurking. Many of them want to see a dealer step up to support a new price level before they do. There are enough big players
out there to whom a $10 MILL or $15 MILL price tag is meaningless.

tradedollarnut

If a $15 MILL offer popped up tomorrow I think the coin would be gone. Or even $12-$13 MILL.

No. The coin is NFS. Sure, realistically everything is for sale for life changing money depending on the circumstances at the time, but $5M profit is not life changing money for Legend.

Sorry that some see this as hype. Exactly who here would we be marketing the coin to? Instead, see it for what it is - genuine excitement over owning such a coin.

keyman64

<< <i> If a $15 MILL offer popped up tomorrow I think the coin would be gone. Or even $12-$13 MILL.

No. The coin is NFS. Sure, realistically everything is for sale for life changing money depending on the circumstances at the time, but $5M profit is not life changing money for Legend.

Sorry that some see this as hype. Exactly who here would we be marketing the coin to? Instead, see it for what it is - genuine excitement over owning such a coin. >>

Good for you guys! I'd like to see that coin stay in the USA for a loooong time!

roadrunner

<< <i> If a $15 MILL offer popped up tomorrow I think the coin would be gone. Or even $12-$13 MILL.

No. The coin is NFS. Sure, realistically everything is for sale for life changing money depending on the circumstances at the time, but $5M profit is not life changing money for Legend.

Sorry that some see this as hype. Exactly who here would we be marketing the coin to? Instead, see it for what it is - genuine excitement over owning such a coin. >>




It's only a few days after the sale. We know it's "NFS" today. Let's revisit the discussion 6 months to 2 years from today. Selling/flipping it today might actually be counterproductive
to Legend. If you're going to tell one's customers that holding great coins longer term is beneficial, then selling out on the 1794 so soon would not support that philosophy. If there's
a real offer out there soon, and I'm sure there is, it will be out there in 6 months to 2 years as well. Holding the coin for 6 months is worth Millions in publicity and potential contacts
and customers down the road. That cannot be reaped in just a few days or weeks of ownership. That I do get. The seeds have been sewn. Now the water will be applied over the
coming months. Eventually harvest time will arrive. If I owned it I'd handle it the exact same way. So I'd probably change my orig statement somewhat. If there was a strong offer
out there I'd tell them to come back in 6 months for another round of discussions. Play hard to get.

ColonelJessup

<< <i>Yup, that's a lot of money tied up. >>



Nope. Cost of money is very cheap right now. If you've got good financing the carrying charges are small. At 3% per for 5 years the cost basis of the coin is now $11.5M

Maybe you buy a bank for $$250K and borrow$10M from the Fed at .25%. Cost basis after 5 years (with bank thrown in free) = $10,375,000. Paid $1M? Cost now $11.25M

Highly simplisitic descriptions of possibly complicated scenarios. Meant more to illustrate a point about the leverage of large capital aggregates. This is a example of a manner in which, as in The Great Gatsby, it may be said that "The rich are different than you or me".

DrPete

Congratulations Legend on the purchase of this most interesting and esteemed coin. What a thrill to own such a coin! I hope to see it some day, but such valuable coins require the utmost security, so I don't know what chances there are to see the coin in the near future.

Given what this coin is, I anticipate there a number, albeit small, of collectors out there that would be able to purchase this coin at a profit for Legend, at whatever timeframe that is. I consider this the ultimate "TROPHY" coin.

Have fun with your coin(s).

drei3ree

<< <i>

<< <i>Yup, that's a lot of money tied up. >>



Nope. Cost of money is very cheap right now. If you've got good financing the carrying charges are small. At 3% per for 5 years the cost basis of the coin is now $11.5M

Maybe you buy a bank for $$250K and borrow$10M from the Fed at .25%. Cost basis after 5 years (with bank thrown in free) = $10,375,000. Paid 1M? Cost now $11.25M

Highly simplisitic descriptions of possibly complicated scenarios. Meant more to illustrate a point about the leverage of large capital aggregates. This is a example of a manner in which, as in The Great Gatsby, it may be said that "The rich are different than you or me". >>



WOW...

mrpotatoheadd

<< <i>If you're going to tell one's customers that holding great coins longer term is beneficial, then selling out on the 1794 so soon would not support that philosophy. >>

Dealers and collectors typically buy coins for different reasons. A dealer can buy and resell right away without there being any contradiction in them telling their customers that holding coins for longer periods is beneficial.

ColonelJessup

<< <i>Congratulations Legend on the purchase of this most interesting and esteemed coin. What a thrill to own such a coin! I hope to see it some day, but such valuable coins require the utmost security, so I don't know what chances there are to see the coin in the near future.

Given what this coin is, I anticipate there a number, albeit small, of collectors out there that would be able to purchase this coin at a profit for Legend, at whatever timeframe that is. I consider this the ultimate "TROPHY" coin.

Have fun with your coin(s). >>



And have fun they will

But as far as "ultimate" goes.....

Now that more 1933 $20's have shown up

Assuming the 1849 $20 doesn't get privatized.

"Teddy's Coin" (J-1776) has already been valued for more. $15M is now very cheap. Refer to Julian's avatar (and SethChandler's) for images.

No gold for TDN?

Perhaps the Childs-Pogue 1804 $1

The coin is mega-cool. It's sui generis. It's a national historic site. And a friend bought it However, the above may not be a complete list of "ultimate" trophy coins.

But none of this takes away from the splendid coup George and his crew have engineered. A well thought-out plan executed in a bravura perfomance. Historic by any measure, and that $10M number rumbles like India's buying 200 tonnes of gold at $1050.

An enormous brava and bravo Much mazel

Resonances of early Wasserstein Perella

hammer1

<< <i>

<< <i>Yup, that's a lot of money tied up. >>



Nope. Cost of money is very cheap right now. If you've got good financing the carrying charges are small. At 3% per for 5 years the cost basis of the coin is now $11.5M. >>



Even less, due to $10,000,000 cash only able to garner around 2% on a long term jumbo CD (brick and mortar only- no online, nor credit unions for that amount). Gone are the days when bank managers/regional VP's would give you an extra 50-100 basis points for a very large deposit.

2ndCharter

Pity the next buyer.

If someone can afford to put $10-$15 million into a coin, they don't need any pity.

CoinRaritiesOnline

My guess: A few years down the road this coin will be traded for a bushel of other coins.

mrpotatoheadd

<< <i>My guess: A few years down the road this coin will be traded for a bushel of other coins. >>

My guess: If the coin is traded a few years down the road, there will be posts critical of Legend for the decision. And if, instead, they keep the coin, there will be posts critcizing that decision, too.

roadrunner

But none of this takes away from the splendid coup George and his crew have engineered. A well thought-out plan executed in a bravura perfomance. Historic by any measure, and that $10M number rumbles like India's buying 200 tonnes of gold at $1050.

I don't believe that India ever actually purchased 200 tonnes of physical gold from the IMF a few years back. That gold had been held in an IMF approved facility and more than likely that's where it had to stay. That left China out of the mix entirely. IMF approved vaults are in India, France, London, and US. More than likely, that 200 tonnes was an accounting "fix" that needed to be attended to by a previous India gold transaction to rebalance the books. The IMF was looking for mileage as usual to state they'd be "selling" a pile of gold again. I doubt very much that there was any gold to buy and that India was going to be the "buyer" regardless. I'd say TDN's purchase rumbles a lot more than the probably bogus Indian gold buy. At least we do know that they bought the coin.

Unless Legend flips the coin in the next couple of weeks I don't think anyone has anything to be critical about. It's their coin to do with what they want.

oreville

As Yogi Berra said,

when TDN and Legend ......."comes to the fork in the road, they will take it."

Swampboy

<< <i>Exactly who here would we be marketing the coin to? >>



Amen and don't look at me.


What a great place this forum is that we can have a ringside seat to numismatic history.

Type2

They have it sold already i bet. Just waiting for them to send payment.

HoledandCreative

From 2003 thread - What is that one coin that if you owned you wouldn't ever sell no matter how much was offered?

"Amon Carter 1794 Dollar"

Then and now are for sure different times.

leothelyon

Cardinal Collection, acquired via private treaty in May 2010 for the record price of $7,850,000.

New price, $8,525,000 At 28% tax on the profit, did the Cardinal foundation make $486,000 on this coin?

LochNESS

If they are a non-profit "foundation" then they may not have to pay 28% tax or they may, I'm not a CPA but ... anyone know what the incorporated status is of Cardinal foundation?