PSA Pop Reports -- always reliable?

MisterE

Hey, guys, I'm wondering what your experience has been with the PSA Pop Reports.

Are they always reliable? A little behind? Really out of date?

Thanks!

Rampage

If behind, it is only by a couple to a few days at worse. As for being up to date? I would imagine it is like the PCGS pops. If you crack a card and resubmit, more than likely that slab you crack is not coming out of the ops unless you hand over the cert.

LochNESS

This has really bothered me more than any other aspect of the grading systems ... all those empty cobweb cert #'s ... not really sure why it gets to me so much, I suppose because of this problem we're discussing where nobody really knows how many unique [coins, cards, comics] have been graded.

If there were a way to identify and delete all the unused cert #'s I bet PSA and PCGS could drop 2 digits from their certs. Maybe 3.

MisterE

Thanks for the responses, guys.

I addition to the cracked/resubbed cards, I also suppose there are some sets that just don't see many submissions, hence the static pop number.

Rampage

<< <i>This has really bothered me more than any other aspect of the grading systems ... all those empty cobweb cert #'s ... not really sure why it gets to me so much, I suppose because of this problem we're discussing where nobody really knows how many unique [coins, cards, comics] have been graded.

If there were a way to identify and delete all the unused cert #'s I bet PSA and PCGS could drop 2 digits from their certs. Maybe 3. >>



They probably could. But, the responsibility is on the shoulders of us as collectors/dealer/etc. If you fail to let PSA/PCGS and other companies know you cracked a card/coin/comic/etc, then how are they suppose to remove the cert number and pop? I agree that it is a bit disheartening, but just the same, at least the pop report is there as a guide or sorts.

LochNESS

The only thing it tells me is that they've had plenty of business. Which of course makes me glad, because I love the services. Yes it's on our shoulders. I have never cracked a slab and resubmitted, but if I were to do so, I would be happy to let them know. I mean, it's not like they would refuse my future business right? It's not against policy, is it?

Rampage

<< <i>The only thing it tells me is that they've had plenty of business. Which of course makes me glad, because I love the services. Yes it's on our shoulders. I have never cracked a slab and resubmitted, but if I were to do so, I would be happy to let them know. I mean, it's not like they would refuse my future business right? It's not against policy, is it? >>



Not against the rules at all. In fact, in the coin world, people do that all the time. Have I ever personally cracked card and resubmitted? No, I have not.

LochNESS

I know people do it all the time, I know it's been going on since the '90s. What I don't know is whether or not our hosts approve of the practice.

corncobb

I think the pop reports are just pointless and very inaccurate.

I myself have crack literally 100's of slabs for my raw sets. I know of others as well who have cracked just
as many or more who don't concern themselves with the pop reports. It useless info IMHO

AwfulBits

I think you can be nearly 100% sure that the population for any PSA 10 is correct. The only way I can see it not being correct is where someone crossed a lower value PSA 10 to SGC or other and then someone else crossed it back. But that is highly unlikely and I can't see anyone taking the risk of doing it with a card of any real value.

I would say the same holds true for any high value card. For example, I find it unlikely that anyone would be crazy enough to crack a PSA 9 52 Mantle in the hopes that it would get a 10. Send it in for a review. Sure. But then if it got the bump PSA would adjust the pop report. I would think this would hold true for any high value cards. the risk just isn't worth the possible downside.

on the flip side - where you have cards that are common in a PSA 9 and are cheap, but that same card in a PSA 10 might be 20 times as much, you'll have people cracking their 9's and taking a chance. Some people need that 10 for their registry set after all and drive up PSA 10 commons to crazy levels.

-Mike

MisterE

So if I'm following you guys correctly...because of the cracking-resubmitting "game"...the actual pop of certain cards could really be lower than the number in the report?

PaulMaul

<< <i>So if I'm following you guys correctly...because of the cracking-resubmitting "game"...the actual pop of certain cards could really be lower than the number in the report? >>



Yes. It definitely is in fact. In the last month, I submitted at least 8 cards that had been cracked out a long time ago. So all of these will contribute to the pop report twice. Like Mike said, it doesn't matter that much since, for a given set, whatever grade is considered very desirable will usually not be cracked out. For Mars Attacks, that might be PSA 7. For Wacky Packages, it might be PSA 9. But the population report will generally be accurate for the very desirable highest grades.

LochNESS

Excellent points by AwfulBits and PaulMaul. The logic seems sound. If someone has a highly valuable collectible they are less likely to crack the slab and resubmit.

However, as every rule as an exception, there are many dealers out there who are willing to crack a $10,000 item in hopes it will re-grade higher as a $15,000 valuation (or better).

What I'm saying is that when the difference between grades is a high enough valuation, there will be resubmissions, even if it's PSA 9, trying to get that perfect 10.

PaulMaul

<< <i>Excellent points by AwfulBits and PaulMaul. The logic seems sound. If someone has a highly valuable collectible they are less likely to crack the slab and resubmit.

However, as every rule as an exception, there are many dealers out there who are willing to crack a $10,000 item in hopes it will re-grade higher as a $15,000 valuation (or better).

What I'm saying is that when the difference between grades is a high enough valuation, there will be resubmissions, even if it's PSA 9, trying to get that perfect 10. >>



It's certainly possible, but dangerous. I haven't re-submitted that many crack outs, but of the ones I have re-submitted, some 8's became 9's and some 8's became 6's, so it's a risky game.

LochNESS

Pictures? Obviously I believe you, but pictures are fun if you have 'em. I am horribly inexperienced when it comes to grading cards and I'm preparing to get rid of a large card album, so I need to practice

flatfoot816