According to Exit Polls....

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According To Exit Polls, Nobody Will Make The Baseball Hall Of Fame

Barry Petchesky

The results of 2013 Baseball Hall of Fame voting will be announced on Wednesday, and this year represents a unique ballot. Steroid users, suspected steroid users, a cocaine user, a catcher, Jack Morris. Want a preview? Baseball Think Factory has compiled the votes from every writer that made their vote public (including two who aren't voting at all), and the results are only shocking if you somehow didn't read our headline.

The 2013 Hall Of Fame Ballot Collecting Gizmo is being updated daily, and as of now has 84 full ballots—nearly 15 percent of the total. That's a much larger sample size than election day exit polls, though it is self-selected. Here's the top 10, with 75 percent required for induction:

71.4 - Biggio
69.0 - Bagwell
65.5 - Piazza
63.1 - Raines
61.9 - J. Morris
46.4 - Clemens
46.4 - Bonds
39.1 - Schilling
39.1 - Trammell
35.7 - L. Smith

Nobody gets a plaque! (Except for three Veterans Committee selections, all of whom have been dead for at least 74 years.) We predicted this result, but it'd still be a shock to see Craig Biggio left out. He's a sportswriter's wet dream, atop a ballot without any sure things. But I suppose proximity to PED suspicion is damning enough these days.

If you're curious about accuracy, exit polls proved remarkably prescient last year. Both BBTF's (scroll down to comment #10 to see their 2012 predictor) and a second ballot tracker had Barry Larkin as the only man in, both nailing his percentage in the high 80s. There are still plenty of uncounted ballots, but Craig Biggio is going to need a surge or Cooperstown will be kind of lonely this summer.

scotgreb

IMO it is very possible, if not likely, that the BBWAA has no elections this year.

I think Jack Morris is the most likely.

CocoaBeachDodgers

I have always felt pretty strongly that this is the year for Astro fans. Biggio and Bagwell going in together would just be right!
No others have a chance this year! IMO

thekid8

Biggio has a better than average shot and based upon last years numbers the only hold over that has a good shot is Morris


Jack Morris 382 (66.7%)
Jeff Bagwell 321 (56.0%)
Lee Smith 290 (50.6%)
Tim Raines 279 (48.7%

Ironmanfan

I think Biggio will get in; not surprised that the others will fall short

IMF

CocoaBeachDodgers

<< <i>Biggio has a better than average shot and based upon last years numbers the only hold over that has a good shot is Morris


Jack Morris 382 (66.7%)
Jeff Bagwell 321 (56.0%)
Lee Smith 290 (50.6%)
Tim Raines 279 (48.7% >>



This is Bagwell's third year, where it is Morris's 14th year I beleive, 2000 being his first. I think Morris will continue getting skipped as many players have passed him up. I probable should not have said that nobody else has a chance, but I don't like their chances.

cardsnbeads

The Baseball Writers should stripped of their voting power.

stown

<< <i>The Baseball Writers should stripped of their voting power. >>



POTD!

thekid8

<< <i>

<< <i>Biggio has a better than average shot and based upon last years numbers the only hold over that has a good shot is Morris


Jack Morris 382 (66.7%)
Jeff Bagwell 321 (56.0%)
Lee Smith 290 (50.6%)
Tim Raines 279 (48.7% >>



This is Bagwell's third year, where it is Morris's 14th year I beleive, 2000 being his first. I think Morris will continue getting skipped as many players have passed him up. I probable should not have said that nobody eles has a chance, but I don't like their chances. >>



Morris and Blyeven very similar voting patterns

CollectorAtWork

I think someone will get in as Baseball will want someone to be there during the HOF induction ceremonies (that is still alive). Has it ever happened before where there were no living HOFer to be inducted? I think Biggio will get in. He has 3000+ hits and hasn't been obviously linked to the steroid era. I would vote Morris in myself, but none of the others for this year.

Dboneesq

Something to think about for the upcoming years:

Future Hall of Fame Weekends will usually be held over the last Sunday in July in upcoming years. The 2013 Induction Weekend will be held July 26-29 with the Induction on July 28.

Provided that they remain retired, the following is a partial list of former Major League ballplayers who will become eligible for consideration by the BBWAA for election into the Hall of Fame in upcoming years. Players who are eligible have played 10 seasons of Major League Baseball and have been retired from for five full seasons. For example, those players eligible for consideration in 2014 will have played their final game in 2008. Those players eligible for consideration in 2015 will have last played in 2009, etc.

2014: Moises Alou, Armando Benitez, Sean Casey, Jose Cruz Jr., Ray Durham, Damion Easley, Keith Foulke, Eric Gagne, Tom Glavine, Luis Gonzalez, Scott Hatteberg, Jacque Jones, Todd Jones, Jeff Kent, Jon Lieber, Esteban Loaiza, Paul Lo Duca, Greg Maddux, Matt Morris, Mike Mussina, Trot Nixon, Hideo Nomo, Jay Payton, Kenny Rogers, Richie Sexson, J.T. Snow, Shannon Stewart, Frank Thomas, Mike Timlin, Steve Trachsel, Jose Vidro

2015: Rich Aurilia, Aaron Boone, Paul Byrd, Tony Clark, Carlos Delgado, David Dellucci, Jermaine Dye, Alan Embree, Darin Erstad, Kelvim Escobar, Cliff Floyd, Nomar Garciaparra, Brian Giles, Tom Gordon, Eddie Guardado, Randy Johnson, Mark Loretta, Pedro Martinez, Ramon Martinez, Doug Mientkiewicz, Kevin Millar, Troy Percival, B.J. Ryan, Jason Schmidt, Gary Sheffield, John Smoltz, Julian Tavarez, Jarrod Washburn, David Weathers

2016: Garret Anderson, Brad Ausmus, Jim Edmonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Mark Grudzielanek, Trevor Hoffman, Chan Ho Park, Mike Sweeney, Billy Wagner

2017: Pat Burrell, Vladimir Guerrero, Jorge Posada, Manny Ramirez, Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Varitek, Tim Wakefield

2018: Brian Fuentes, Chipper Jones, Hideki Matsui, Omar Vizquel