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And then there was 29xx ...Again...
LukeMarshall
Posts: 1,911 ✭✭✭✭✭
What is the general consensus at this price level?
Buy?
Sell?
Hold?
Is anyone waiting for $27, or even sub?
Are any of you all backing up the proverbial truck?
What about the Sellers? Or are your hands staying strong?
I'm just wondering what people are thinking.
Buy?
Sell?
Hold?
Is anyone waiting for $27, or even sub?
Are any of you all backing up the proverbial truck?
What about the Sellers? Or are your hands staying strong?
I'm just wondering what people are thinking.
It's all about what the people want...
0
Comments
Silver Slumps To Biggest 3-Day Drop In Over A Year
Good time to be 3X ultra short.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Tomorrow may do the same if lower. I still feel its a better deal than that TV.
I don't have the expertise yet to be able to understand how to spot strong upswing momentum,
or note the change to an upswing vs a short spike back,
but I completely get what Derryb and others say about that technique.
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
<< <i>I have my finger on the trigger. >>
+1
Don't go crazy with money you can't afford to loose, or get caught up in this..
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
Now that is the best advice anyone has given here in quite awhile. It's all speculation, go into it as such.
I'm always buying Sterling, just finished wrapping up two local deals on flatware sets of maybe 150 ozt. Not happy about it every day, but when they call I have no choice since I hold myself out as a buyer. Especially when I'm pretty certain silver will fall at least another couple bucks real soon before I expect it to stablize. It takes me almost 2 mths to turn sterling into Silver bars. It's tough to buy when I know I'm loosing 300 up front. I figure it will come back though. This country financially is truly built on a house of cards.
Had two people come back in today with silver flat ware sets I had gave em a price on last week, today they decided to sell it.
I tell em, Sorry, price is off a couple of bucks, here the new price. they either sell or they wait. one waited, one sold.
I keep stuff shipped constantly and have ever since the price of silver crossed $30 bucks the first time around.
I lost one time substantially on a 100 z silver bar as I bought it the morning of a significant drop that never came back till months and months later.
I myself am not selling any silver right now, and probably not for a while.
The market sentiment feels very low as it has been for a while now. Sometimes though, that is the perfect buying opportunities.
I guess that for now I'm in the keeping the powder dry club, although I've been known to have an itchy trigger finger
But never mind all that, I hope everyone is enjoying their holidays!
It's all about what the people want...
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Dang QE. I thought it was guaranteed to push the metals higher. >>
Not with the way December had been setting up with back to back Treasury auction weeks coupled with FOMC and OExp week. That was a bad brew that I warned against
back in November. The weekly indicators in GDX and GLD were still not fully bottomed as of early this week. There was more to do as yesterday and today showed.
Lots of rumors out there. One of them was John Paulson had to dump lots of GLD and miner shares from his account for redemptions. The big boyz could have easily
piggy backed on his need to sell. Someone behind the scenes was ready to sell for maximum carnage, and sell they did. Could have been just paper, some physical or a combo
of both. 6 month cycle low was due in Nov/December. It just managed to get extended out into later December just like 2011. The QE will eventually find its way back into
gold and commodities. This is a long battle that takes months and years, not weeks. But there's no doubt in my mind that this hit was well choreographed to follow the FED
QE announcement and discourage all gold/silver holders. The hits this week were under the same plan. It is what it is. Prices by January will probably come right back to where
they were before the FED announcement. It will be the same old same old.
<< <i>Dang QE. I thought it was guaranteed to push the metals higher. >>
Patience grasshopper. Capital gains tax rates trump QE.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I knew it would happen.
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
<< <i>
<< <i>Dang QE. I thought it was guaranteed to push the metals higher. >>
Patience grasshopper. >>
Yeah. Let's revisit this down the road a ways once things have settled out and the posturing is complete. Fiscal cliff - Mayan Friday - QE4 - Abe spinning up the Nikkei - Gun control.....way too much on the plate right now to get a good read. I knew the end of this week would be a cluster....and I wasn't disappointed. Derryb had it nailed weeks ago.
<< <i>
<< <i>Dang QE. I thought it was guaranteed to push the metals higher. >>
Patience grasshopper. Capital gains tax rates trump QE. >>
I guess we can always find an excuse..
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Dang QE. I thought it was guaranteed to push the metals higher. >>
Patience grasshopper. >>
Yeah. Let's revisit this down the road a ways once things have settled out and the posturing is complete. Fiscal cliff - Mayan Friday - QE4 - Abe spinning up the Nikkei - Gun control.....way too much on the plate right now to get a good read. I knew the end of this week would be a cluster....and I wasn't disappointed. Derryb had it nailed weeks ago. >>
No offense but blah blah blah. 3 months ago the talk was QE
Pushing prices higher and higher. Now people are down 15 to 20 percent. Perhaps eventually you will be proven correct. But right now there's a whole lot o suckers* out there
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I cleared out a pile of Saints at a show on Dec 9th to make room for some fresh buys after the Dec carnage. Was happy to take advantage of the run up in MS64/65 Saints.
Any improvement in sovereign debt? Real interest rates? M2? M1? M0? Otc derivatives? Fed Balance sheet? GDP? Real unemployment? Food stamp line getting shorter?
Ok, same old fundamentals. Gold is now 7 months from it's last major low in May, pretty similar to the 7 months in 2008 and every other earlier consolidation. Weekly charts are
horrendously oversold. They probably won't be for much longer. PMs....carry on.
What gold or silver prices are 15-20% lower? I'm looking back at the $1797 October gold high. Anyone that was stupidly buying there is down 8% today. Are you looking back to
the $1923 high from September 2011 (-14%)? If we're doing that let's go back to the January 1980 high and see how poorly gold has done yoy. Fwiw, I don't know anyone who bought
gold above $1900. No doubt there's someone who did with the intention of sitting on it, but probably not on this board. A friend of mine from California bought at $1850 back in Sept
2011 against my wishes. I told him if he needed to bail to get out this past Sept/Oct as it hit the $1790's for a few days just after the Long Beach show. As long as we're looking for
"hard to find people" let's see if we can find some AAPL buyers who got in at $680 or Green Mountain Coffee buyers who got in at $100 in 2012. The gold owners at $1797 are doing quite
a bit better than those folks. But we can discuss "Bread and Circus" another time.
I don't need an excuse. Logic and reason have always worked pretty well for me.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Dang QE. I thought it was guaranteed to push the metals higher. >>
Patience grasshopper. >>
Yeah. Let's revisit this down the road a ways once things have settled out and the posturing is complete. Fiscal cliff - Mayan Friday - QE4 - Abe spinning up the Nikkei - Gun control.....way too much on the plate right now to get a good read. I knew the end of this week would be a cluster....and I wasn't disappointed. Derryb had it nailed weeks ago. >>
I agree. Now we can start checking off that list:
Fiscal Cliff - we're already over
Mayan Friday - in 29 hours we can check off
QE4 - sorry folks that's to "Infinity"
Gun Control - we're already there- check off
So the lone remaining event will be QE4 to Infinity.
Fiscal Cliff fears ain't over until the scalawags in Washington reach a deal....no matter how dumb it may be.
Ben's last fomc statement was a QE4 speech because he basically took off the infinity and relinked QE to an inflation rate (2.5%) and an unemployment rate (6.5%).
Now it's QE to infinity unless either of those 2 conditions is met. Heck, they could get the 6.5% unemployment by simply shrinking the participation rate further. If they
can eliminate the entire workforce, the participation rate wouild be 0%, but so would unemployment be 0%. Problem solved! At 0% unemployment they wouldn't even
have to send out soc security or pension checks.
Silver was over 35, now under 30. That be 15%, even with the "new math" they now teach in schools.
Point is that in Sept everyone was saying you gotta buy silver cuz QE to da moon. Well, phoey on that. EVERYONE who bought after the QE3 announcement is now underwater.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Dang QE. I thought it was guaranteed to push the metals higher. >>
Infinity, schminity.
"Deficits don't matter."
Full steam ahead.
<< <i>What gold or silver prices are 15-20% lower
Silver was over 35, now under 30. That be 15%, even with the "new math" they now teach in schools.
Point is that in Sept everyone was saying you gotta buy silver cuz QE to da moon. Well, phoey on that. EVERYONE who bought after the QE3 announcement is now underwater. >>
Losses (and profits) only occur at time of sale. Being underwater at the moment shouldn't matter to a long term player. Silver price volatility normally puts most buyers underwater at some point in the first year of ownership. It's what those owners do at that time that makes them or breaks them. Underwater IMO is a time to buy more.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>I feel like Rodney Dangerfield.
There's no magic in forecasting silver will go up and then go down. This is what silver prices do. The magic is knowing exactly when it will make a noticeble turn. Since I can't figure that out I will continue to play short term trends. Short term trend is nothing more than two steps in one direction for every one step in the opposite direction.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>
<< <i>What gold or silver prices are 15-20% lower
Silver was over 35, now under 30. That be 15%, even with the "new math" they now teach in schools.
Point is that in Sept everyone was saying you gotta buy silver cuz QE to da moon. Well, phoey on that. EVERYONE who bought after the QE3 announcement is now underwater. >>
Losses (and profits) only occur at time of sale. Being underwater at the moment shouldn't matter to a long term player. Silver price volatility normally puts most buyers underwater at some point in the first year of ownership. It's what those owners do at that time that makes them or breaks them. Underwater IMO is a time to buy more. >>
So much wrong with this, but I'll just ask, then why has underwater real estate posed such a problem? Don't e buy houses fir long term hold?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>What gold or silver prices are 15-20% lower
Silver was over 35, now under 30. That be 15%, even with the "new math" they now teach in schools.
Point is that in Sept everyone was saying you gotta buy silver cuz QE to da moon. Well, phoey on that. EVERYONE who bought after the QE3 announcement is now underwater. >>
Losses (and profits) only occur at time of sale. Being underwater at the moment shouldn't matter to a long term player. Silver price volatility normally puts most buyers underwater at some point in the first year of ownership. It's what those owners do at that time that makes them or breaks them. Underwater IMO is a time to buy more. >>
So much wrong with this, but I'll just ask, then why has underwater real estate posed such a problem? Don't e buy houses fir long term hold? >>
People who are in the market for any asset will buy when they see a bargain. I suspect most real estate buyers expect further price decline and are on the sideline waiting. Currently same situation with metals. Current underwater homeowners see no affect unless they plan to sell.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Been shopping but haven't found interesting prices compared to spot. >>
I couldn't find any silver to buy yesterday. Just one maple but I was short a few $.
lol, we agree on something.
People who are in the market for any asset will buy when they see a bargain. I suspect most real estate buyers expect further price decline and are on the sideline waiting
Are you kidding me? Why in the heck would anyone buy when they know more pain is in store from the time of signing their name on the dotted line? That is, if they are thinking clearly. Now if they come across their dream home that has everything they've been looking for for some time, then that's when emotion gets involved and they buy, which is still a bad decision. This logic applies to buying metals in any real quantity as well.
Current underwater homeowners see no affect unless they plan to sell
Well I'll speak for my self. It doesn't necessarrily make me sleep better. To borrow a line...Insanity is believing you don't have a loss until you sell. If you're underwater at any given moment, that is a loss. Here's why, because at some point you have to get above water to make a profit, and how long did that dead money tied up in a dog sit on the sidelines when something else could've been done with it. Not to mention, if you are forced to sell because something comes along where you need the remaining balance, that's then a loss, a real one.
I'm sorry, my $ supply is not infinite. I have to make what I have at any given time be working for me, not sitting waiting for something to happen.
I am eyeballing several pieces of property and I am absolutely not ready to buy any of them. They may be bargains, but not bargains enough.
if you are forced to sell because something comes along where you need the remaining balance, that's then a loss, a real one.
I'm sorry, my $ supply is not infinite. I have to make what I have at any given time be working for me, not sitting waiting for something to happen.
I agree that being forced to sell is never good, but really - who never takes a loss? I want to meet him.
I knew it would happen.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Dang QE. I thought it was guaranteed to push the metals higher. >>
QE3 Silver Impact
"So make no mistake, the Fed's decision to more than double QE3 last week is wildly bullish for silver going forward. The Fed just announced an unprecedented tidal wave of money-supply growth from debt monetization that is going to start hitting our economy's shores in January. The recent silver selling is the result of unrelated bearish psychology, and such extreme sentiment anomalies never last for long."
"Why is QE3 so bullish for the white metal? Because its probable scope dwarfs that of QE1 and QE2, and both of those earlier inflationary campaigns eventually worked wonders for the silver price."
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>Insanity is believing you don't have a loss until you sell. >>
Insanity is counting dead chickens before they hatch.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Good luck finding anyone here on the forum that bought silver at $35 in September and held on to it for a 14% loss.
But somewhere out there in the world are those 1%ers that did buy silver at $35 in Sept following the FOMC and are still sitting on it.
Point is that in Sept everyone was saying you gotta buy silver cuz QE to da moon. Well, phoey on that. EVERYONE who bought after the QE3 announcement is now underwater.
1. QE3 hasn't even started yet. It's a 1-3 year program assuming we don't miraculously get to a 6.5% UE rate. Silver doubled in price over QE1 and again during QE2. Give it time.
2. Silver was already up 25% in 5 weeks from early Aug to the FOMC announcement. That rally was winding down. A correction was going to happen regardless of the announcement.
3. Gold was fairly weak this fall after the Sept rally. Silver was certainly not going to go anywhere with gold locked up.
4. Silver and gold are still transitioning from the deep summer bottoms towards their next C wave advance. These months are for shaking all the weak hands off before that rally. It
doesn't matter really that there was or wasn't a QE3 announcement. We need to see the money too.
Way too early to judge the effectiveness of QE3 on silver. Why is that only silver and gold losses are scrutinized around here? What about Apple or Green Mountain? Why not sugar,
cotton, or uranium? One would think by reading this forum that only gold and silver investors lose money....everyone else in every other market is making money hand over fist. Yet
in the past 10-12 years, PMs have far outpaced most nearly every general investment out there. You'd think they were the biggest losers. I'll agree that everyone that bought silver the
few days following the FED announcement is underwater....if you can find one of them. Gold went sideways from there for 5 days indicating something was wrong. Same for the stock
market. Those stock guys that stayed around lost big too and probably sold out in the Nov bottom accentuating their losses. What about those silver buyers that bought during the
summer in the $20's and sold at $33-$35 in Sept-October? There are probably many more of them around here than 1%ers who bought at $35.