you don't pay 28% on the sale of $2000. You pay tax only on the profit.
You don't pay tax on the amount of the sale in 2013 either. Only on the profit, as noted.
As far as "less metal" does it really matter how many oz. I have as long as I end up with the same dollar amount of metal?
Yes, it does matter. I'd rather have more metal because it will appreciate faster before tax than the tax bite will take out of it. That's my opinion anyhow.
Also, effective 2013 a new 3.8% tax on investment income for higher earners thanks to new health care law.
Yes, but that's true no matter which approach you think is best.
This is a good debate, because I've been wrestling with the question of what happens after Jan. 1, 2013 in terms of taxes. Since I'm not yet retired, I have less time propensity to trade and my primary cash flow is still from my employment. Hence, for me it's not as critical to generate profits yet.
Profits. Does anyone still make a profit, or is that frowned upon now?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>The global gold trade has been heavily finance via the yen. The yen has broken a multi year up trend. The correlation between the yen and gold will continue until equilibrium is achieved. The choice of believing the newsletter writers or the markets is yours. >>
Agree. But don't you expect Japan will act to counter this move?
Nice apocolypse. >>
The yen has broken its uptrend. It will be weak for a long time. It may have even ended its 20 year bull run. Gold will eventually stabilize and break the corrolation, but as your graph depicts (predicts), lower process are coming.
<< <i>As far as "less metal" does it really matter how many oz. I have as long as I end up with the same dollar amount of metal?
Yes, it does matter. I'd rather have more metal because it will appreciate faster before tax than the tax bite will take out of it. That's my opinion anyhow. >>
Gold appreciates in dollars, not ozs. Taxes are based on dollar amount not ozs. Its no different than a stock, number of shares is irrelevant - it's dollar value that matters. Stock value increases in dollars, not shares.
<< <i>Also, effective 2013 a new 3.8% tax on investment income for higher earners thanks to new health care law.
Yes, but that's true no matter which approach you think is best. >>
You avoid this additional tax only if you liquidate before 2013. Another reason to take profit now.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I'd generally agree with that analysis. The only think I wouldn't fully agree with is Swenlin's 3 yr uptrend line being recently broken. While that is true, it's only a 2 point line, possibly indicating the start of a new trend. The better 3 yr uptrend line has numerous touches and failed back in May. Gold backtested that line in September. But's it's been under the 3 yr uptrend for the past 8 months. Silver could drop in the mid-$28's and still be above its 3 yr uptrend line. The trend line from silver's 2004, 2006, and 2008 peaks is currently projecting a cap on its 2013 price. A conservative upper channel line from the 2008 bottom would hold silver to about the $43 region in 2013. The fact that silver (and gold) put in sharp wave 2 corrections in 2008 would suggest that both of them are putting in flat corrections during this wave 4 (2011-2013?). I don't think we'll see silver violate the $26 level.
<< <i>You really want the truth? OK. The Yen. Not conspiracy. Not profit-taking. Not the lack of the end of the world. Its the Japanese Yen. >>
Actually, the dollar index is inversely driving the price of gold. While the yen inversely affects the dollar index (with an index weight of 13.6%) the euro is a bigger inverse influence on the dollar index (with an index weight of 57.6%). What this means is that the euro has 4.23 times the influence on the dollar index (and gold prices) than does the yen.
Add the euro and the dollar index to the chart.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>You really want the truth? OK. The Yen. Not conspiracy. Not profit-taking. Not the lack of the end of the world. Its the Japanese Yen. >>
Actually, the dollar index is inversely driving the price of gold. While the yen inversely affects the dollar index (with an index weight of 13.6%) the euro is a bigger inverse influence on the dollar index (with an index weight of 57.6%). What this means is that the euro has 4.23 times the influence on the dollar index (and gold prices) than does the yen.
Add the euro and the dollar index to the chart. >>
As you can see the Euro topped 3 1/2 years before gold. Not nearly the correlation as the YEN. So even with a weighting 4x that of the YEN, the Euro did not have as much influence. The reason for this is the carry trade.
a 25% drop in the euro, even with a 25% rise in the yen, will result in a rise in the dollar index. This rise in the dollar index will normally result in lower gold prices. This means lower gold prices in the face of a strengthening yen. The correlation between the yen's price movement and gold's price movement is result and not a cause. The euro is the largest influence on the dollar index and the dollar index currently drives gold prices.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
What is really interesting in these charts, that is missed by everyone is their predictive nature. Look how the yen peaked a year before Abenomics. Not shown but easily found is the fact that the US stock market peaked a full year before the financial crisis in 2008.
Markets are not stupid. They are proactive, not reactive. They are bigger than any other entity.
<< <i>a 25% drop in the euro, even with a 25% rise in the yen, will result in a rise in the dollar index. This rise in the dollar index will normally result in lower gold prices. This means lower gold prices in the face of a strengthening yen. The correlation between the yen's price movement and gold's price movement is result and not a cause. The euro is the largest influence on the dollar index and the dollar index currently drives gold prices. >>
This means lower gold prices in the face of a strengthening yen.
Gold rose when the YEN strengthened and dropped when it weakened.
As seen in the charts below, there has been little correlation over the last year while the euro tumbled and "influenced" the dollar higher.
It should be quite obvious to that the line depicting the YEN is almost exactly the same as the line depicting gold, this is more than coincidence. Gold has followed the chart of the yen much more closely (almost identical) than that of the Euro or the dollar. Why do you refute this?
<< <i>It should be quite obvious to that the line depicting the YEN is almost exactly the same as the line depicting gold, this is more than coincidence. Gold has followed the chart of the yen much more closely (almost identical) than that of the Euro or the dollar. Why do you refute this? >>
Talking point #2: I don't refute that yen and gold price movements have followed the same path. I refute that one is driving the other as someone stated in the thread. Yen (and 4X more so the euro) determine the dollar index. Perceived dollar strength/weakness is the current driver of gold prices. As I pointed out earlier it is very possible that, in the face of euro weakness, the yen could strengthen at the same time the dollar index strengthens (because of the weakening euro) which would cause gold to weaken. Under this scenario would a stronger yen be driving gold in the opposite direction? Far from it. It's the "sum" of foreign currency movements that determine dollar index and the euro's role is 4X that of the yen. In fact, euro price movement (57.6% of the dollar index) carries more weight on the index than all five of the remaining index components combined. Euro drives the dollar index, which currently drives gold in the opposite direction. The remaining index components (including the yen) only determine how far by adding to or subtracting from the euro's affect on the index.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Euro drives the dollar index, which currently drives gold in the opposite direction
Maybe the dollar drives the dollar index. Ever think about that? The second part of your sentence has been proven incorrect, which is plainly evident in the chart.
I like the "perceived" crap. Like its all fake. Ask the Australians how they like their US vacation this year. Tell them it wasnt expensive, just perceived to be expensive. LMAO.
<< <i>Euro drives the dollar index, which currently drives gold in the opposite direction
Maybe the dollar drives the dollar index. Ever think about that? The second part of your sentence has been proven incorrect, which is plainly evident in the chart.
I like the "perceived" crap. Like its all fake. Ask the Australians how they like their US vacation this year. Tell them it wasnt expensive, just perceived to be expensive. LMAO. >>
I won't bother to explain the dollar index, even you should know how that works. Note that I said "currently" drives gold in the opposite direction and with few exceptions history shows this to be the modern norm. If you don't understand the role participant perception plays in markets you should avoid markets.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Euro drives the dollar index, which currently drives gold in the opposite direction
Maybe the dollar drives the dollar index. Ever think about that? The second part of your sentence has been proven incorrect, which is plainly evident in the chart.
I like the "perceived" crap. Like its all fake. Ask the Australians how they like their US vacation this year. Tell them it wasnt expensive, just perceived to be expensive. LMAO. >>
It's about the Aussies had to buck up. For years they have been annoying me on their cheap US vacations.
Mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Comments
You don't pay tax on the amount of the sale in 2013 either. Only on the profit, as noted.
As far as "less metal" does it really matter how many oz. I have as long as I end up with the same dollar amount of metal?
Yes, it does matter. I'd rather have more metal because it will appreciate faster before tax than the tax bite will take out of it. That's my opinion anyhow.
Also, effective 2013 a new 3.8% tax on investment income for higher earners thanks to new health care law.
Yes, but that's true no matter which approach you think is best.
This is a good debate, because I've been wrestling with the question of what happens after Jan. 1, 2013 in terms of taxes. Since I'm not yet retired, I have less time propensity to trade and my primary cash flow is still from my employment. Hence, for me it's not as critical to generate profits yet.
Profits. Does anyone still make a profit, or is that frowned upon now?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Profits. Does anyone still make a profit, or is that frowned upon now? >>
Only the evil make profit.
I guess that makes me evil.
<< <i>
<< <i>The global gold trade has been heavily finance via the yen. The yen has broken a multi year up trend. The correlation between the yen and gold will continue until equilibrium is achieved. The choice of believing the newsletter writers or the markets is yours. >>
Agree. But don't you expect Japan will act to counter this move?
Nice apocolypse. >>
The yen has broken its uptrend. It will be weak for a long time. It may have even ended its 20 year bull run. Gold will eventually stabilize and break the corrolation, but as your graph depicts (predicts), lower process are coming.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>As far as "less metal" does it really matter how many oz. I have as long as I end up with the same dollar amount of metal?
Yes, it does matter. I'd rather have more metal because it will appreciate faster before tax than the tax bite will take out of it. That's my opinion anyhow. >>
Gold appreciates in dollars, not ozs. Taxes are based on dollar amount not ozs. Its no different than a stock, number of shares is irrelevant - it's dollar value that matters. Stock value increases in dollars, not shares.
<< <i>Also, effective 2013 a new 3.8% tax on investment income for higher earners thanks to new health care law.
Yes, but that's true no matter which approach you think is best. >>
You avoid this additional tax only if you liquidate before 2013. Another reason to take profit now.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartw-atchers/2012/12/golds-weakness-persists.html >>
I'd generally agree with that analysis. The only think I wouldn't fully agree with is Swenlin's 3 yr uptrend line being recently broken. While that is true,
it's only a 2 point line, possibly indicating the start of a new trend. The better 3 yr uptrend line has numerous touches and failed back in May. Gold backtested
that line in September. But's it's been under the 3 yr uptrend for the past 8 months. Silver could drop in the mid-$28's and still be above its 3 yr uptrend line.
The trend line from silver's 2004, 2006, and 2008 peaks is currently projecting a cap on its 2013 price. A conservative upper channel line from the 2008 bottom would
hold silver to about the $43 region in 2013. The fact that silver (and gold) put in sharp wave 2 corrections in 2008 would suggest that both of them are putting in
flat corrections during this wave 4 (2011-2013?). I don't think we'll see silver violate the $26 level.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>What is driving the lower price trend? >>
You really want the truth? OK. The Yen. Not conspiracy. Not profit-taking. Not the lack of the end of the world. Its the Japanese Yen. >>
Someone wanna create a comparison graph of gold and the yen?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>What is driving the lower price trend? >>
You really want the truth? OK. The Yen. Not conspiracy. Not profit-taking. Not the lack of the end of the world. Its the Japanese Yen. >>
Someone wanna create a comparison graph of gold and the yen?
Took almost 2 years to create that chart, LOL, but here it is.
12/22/12.... Gold will eventually stabilize and break the corrolation,
Maybe we have reached that point.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>What is driving the lower price trend? >>
<< <i>You really want the truth? OK. The Yen. Not conspiracy. Not profit-taking. Not the lack of the end of the world. Its the Japanese Yen. >>
Actually, the dollar index is inversely driving the price of gold. While the yen inversely affects the dollar index (with an index weight of 13.6%) the euro is a bigger inverse influence on the dollar index (with an index weight of 57.6%). What this means is that the euro has 4.23 times the influence on the dollar index (and gold prices) than does the yen.
Add the euro and the dollar index to the chart.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>What is driving the lower price trend? >>
<< <i>You really want the truth? OK. The Yen. Not conspiracy. Not profit-taking. Not the lack of the end of the world. Its the Japanese Yen. >>
Actually, the dollar index is inversely driving the price of gold. While the yen inversely affects the dollar index (with an index weight of 13.6%) the euro is a bigger inverse influence on the dollar index (with an index weight of 57.6%). What this means is that the euro has 4.23 times the influence on the dollar index (and gold prices) than does the yen.
Add the euro and the dollar index to the chart. >>
As you can see the Euro topped 3 1/2 years before gold. Not nearly the correlation as the YEN. So even with a weighting 4x that of the YEN, the Euro did not have as much influence. The reason for this is the carry trade.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So why didnt gold tank in the last year as the dollar ripped higher? The correlation broke down in 2011 when the YEN broke.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Markets are not stupid. They are proactive, not reactive. They are bigger than any other entity.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>a 25% drop in the euro, even with a 25% rise in the yen, will result in a rise in the dollar index. This rise in the dollar index will normally result in lower gold prices. This means lower gold prices in the face of a strengthening yen. The correlation between the yen's price movement and gold's price movement is result and not a cause. The euro is the largest influence on the dollar index and the dollar index currently drives gold prices. >>
This means lower gold prices in the face of a strengthening yen.
Gold rose when the YEN strengthened and dropped when it weakened.
As seen in the charts below, there has been little correlation over the last year while the euro tumbled and "influenced" the dollar higher.
It should be quite obvious to that the line depicting the YEN is almost exactly the same as the line depicting gold, this is more than coincidence. Gold has followed the chart of the yen much more closely (almost identical) than that of the Euro or the dollar. Why do you refute this?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>It should be quite obvious to that the line depicting the YEN is almost exactly the same as the line depicting gold, this is more than coincidence. Gold has followed the chart of the yen much more closely (almost identical) than that of the Euro or the dollar. Why do you refute this? >>
Talking point #2: I don't refute that yen and gold price movements have followed the same path. I refute that one is driving the other as someone stated in the thread. Yen (and 4X more so the euro) determine the dollar index. Perceived dollar strength/weakness is the current driver of gold prices. As I pointed out earlier it is very possible that, in the face of euro weakness, the yen could strengthen at the same time the dollar index strengthens (because of the weakening euro) which would cause gold to weaken. Under this scenario would a stronger yen be driving gold in the opposite direction? Far from it. It's the "sum" of foreign currency movements that determine dollar index and the euro's role is 4X that of the yen. In fact, euro price movement (57.6% of the dollar index) carries more weight on the index than all five of the remaining index components combined. Euro drives the dollar index, which currently drives gold in the opposite direction. The remaining index components (including the yen) only determine how far by adding to or subtracting from the euro's affect on the index.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Correlation is not causation
OJ simpson
Maybe the dollar drives the dollar index. Ever think about that? The second part of your sentence has been proven incorrect, which is plainly evident in the chart.
I like the "perceived" crap. Like its all fake. Ask the Australians how they like their US vacation this year. Tell them it wasnt expensive, just perceived to be expensive. LMAO.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Euro drives the dollar index, which currently drives gold in the opposite direction
Maybe the dollar drives the dollar index. Ever think about that? The second part of your sentence has been proven incorrect, which is plainly evident in the chart.
I like the "perceived" crap. Like its all fake. Ask the Australians how they like their US vacation this year. Tell them it wasnt expensive, just perceived to be expensive. LMAO. >>
I won't bother to explain the dollar index, even you should know how that works. Note that I said "currently" drives gold in the opposite direction and with few exceptions history shows this to be the modern norm. If you don't understand the role participant perception plays in markets you should avoid markets.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Euro drives the dollar index, which currently drives gold in the opposite direction
Maybe the dollar drives the dollar index. Ever think about that? The second part of your sentence has been proven incorrect, which is plainly evident in the chart.
I like the "perceived" crap. Like its all fake. Ask the Australians how they like their US vacation this year. Tell them it wasnt expensive, just perceived to be expensive. LMAO. >>
It's about the Aussies had to buck up. For years they have been annoying me on their cheap US vacations.
Mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......