2013 What to expect with British Coins :)

petitioncrown

The same question is being asked from many coin collectors / investors as we move into the last quarter of 2012. What will be in 2013?

A report read:
If you could choose only one alternative investment, which of the following would it be?
Art 24%
Automobiles 19%
Coins 39%
Horses 6%
Wine 12%
Total Votes: 4946
Not a Scientific Survey

Numismatics being an asset class, what can we look forward to in 2013 /2014?

First I would like to go back to the 1970’s a period were many of the dealers had full sale lists with all different qualities of British Coins. It was a period were many of the old collections had been sold and the local British collectors were able to develop their hobby with little disturbance from overseas or the internet bringing a new transparency & information to the collector.

Confidence in financial tools has dropped to an all-time low, from 2008 the world economics changed, we begin to ask is the capitalist way we looked at the future changed irrevocably?

Central Banks are printing ‘fiat money’ supporting banks and he owners instead of banks rasing funds in the free market. Several hundred banks in Europe requiring support.
There is no exact way of valuation other than willing seller willing buyer and as we move towards the end of 2012 in a volatile economic environment the principals have not changed.

As with all the art market quality is in demand above all else, fashion in collecting habits change but quality is demanded. Numismatics is no different and has a strong collector base.
There is always a downside; interest could increase to make it attractive to hold deposits with yielding bonds or other instruments. If interest rise to act as a normal financial tool gain which hem must do the mortgage rate will increase and we could have pressed the ‘self-destruct’ button.

Coins have an intrinsic value, gold coins and bullion and other collectables.

Should a small number of new collectors worldwide start collecting then prices of quality will triple in a short period.
As a fact coin values of quality over a medium term 10+ years have had in access of 8% compound growth.
Should the market slow or even decrease the definitive number of quality pieces in the market for collectors will not increase to meet cosumer demand.

www.petitioncrown.com
www.petitioncrown.comCoins 39%Coins 39%

JCMhouston

Yes, it looks like another year of record price increases coming for the rare and high grade pieces.

LochNESS

I swear I read a post just like this a couple months ago, and also started by a newbie. Same person? Spam?

RobP

No, he isn't spam. Relative newbie to this forum maybe, but he's probably got a few decades on most collectors here.

7Jaguars

Yes, no doubt.

However, as much as I love English coins, I am not at all confident that what is a collector item (a coin) is really that great an investment at least prognostically for the next year. I can see major famous rarities may do alright but I see low to mid range coins being at severe risk of price erosion and think this has even begun to some degree.

Coins after all do not produce revenue, they generate NOTHING on their own. In some ways similar to the crazy real estate runups in this country in the early to last mid-decade. At times there is a ho-hum attitude toward even the rarities. As I see it, just because many coins have risen substantially in past years is no guarantee that similar performances can be promised.

Also, with rare coins, their bullion content is minimal. A sovereign has only $400-450 or so worth of bullion and if one was purchased at $15k USD, that is hardly much backing...
And by the way, where did the 39% figure come from? I would not expect that by any means on any wide basis.

Also, I believe the demographics are rather poor as we see, at least to my knowledge, an inverse pyramid (kind of like Buick buyers) where there are not replacement numbers of numismatists for those lost with age. Also, if the market sags, that reflects demand lag and so on the classic supply versus demand curves prices should drop.


But this is not Doom and Gloom, just reality. I love my coins, and have done very well mostly on paper and certainly with those I've sold or traded but do not assume it will continue - in fact in some ways I do hope the market sags a bit and drops prices.

WillieBoyd2

Horses have to be fed.

However, for the right-wing gloom-and-doom types, horses would make a good investment.

You can eat them.

coinkat

Buicks are quite popular in China- seriously

As for the question- I have no idea

I am still trying to figure out why certain British coins are valued the way they currently are