How much does grade matter?

MattyC

There is a BGS 10 card being offered for sale on the BST boards, and it got me thinking...

There is a huge premium for cards in BGS 10 holders, when there are seemingly identical examples in PSA 10 and BGS 9.5 holders (some with "10" subgrades) that can be had for a mere fraction of the cost.

Similarly, there is a huge premium for PSA 10 cards, when there are seemingly identical examples in PSA 9 holders that can be had for a fraction of the cost.

So I want to put it out there: is it madness to buy a PSA 10 instead, of an under-graded PSA 9? Is it madness to drop $5000 for a BGS 10, instead of $500 on a BGS 9.5 or PSA 10?

I know beauty is in the eye of the beholder-- or is it too often in our hobby all about the holder?

I for one cannot tell the difference between some PSA 10s and the best 9s. Nor can I detect-- with the naked eye, when a card is in-hand or being viewed on a wall-display-- the difference between a BGS 10 and the strongest cards in GEM MT holders of either company.

Ignoring any impulse to have the best grade, and instead looking at the card, has saved me a bundle over the years and allowed me to have a much broader collection.

To be clear: I am not saying that a truly PRISTINE or GEM MT card isn't an amazing thing-- those cards when deserving of the grade are gorgeous. But it seems to me that if one looks long enough they can find a card that is, if not the same, then so close that it is so very hard to justify the enormous cost difference.

I mean, you reach a point where you are paying a huge price for such an infinitesimal difference (and in some cases virtually no difference). Paying a big difference in money for a big difference in condition makes total sense to me, but paying a big difference in cash for a small difference in condition just doesn't sit as well for some reason.

In the end I wonder if psychology is the main impetus behind purchasing an exorbitantly-priced BGS 10 or PSA 10, as opposed to their strongest counterparts one grade below. Is it a competitive need to say one "has the best?" But it seems like the premium paid for some cards in the most elite grade is a high price to pay, to brandish a sticker applied by someone who at the end of the day is just another human being with an opinion.

There are some cards where the price in those elite grades is not a factor for any given budget, so it's easy to pull the trigger in those cases. But, for example: a PSA 10 Henderson costs $10,000. I have seen a few. And I know I have seen a very small handful of 9s in my time that look every bit as good (or better) that cost $300. So again I wonder-- for a personal collection, not as a professional seller-- why ever buy that 10? If someone showed me the 10 he copped for 10K, and someone next to him showed me the virtually identical 9 he copped for $300, let's just say I would not be wowed or impressed by the former's purchase.

I think that Registry collecting can often be the cause for such purchases as well, since it fosters "competitive collecting."

itzagoner

<< <i>Is it a competitive need to say one "has the best?" >>



here is your answer. in the form of a question.

MattyC

I hear ya. But it should always be the best card (and ideally at the best price), not the best holder (at the relatively worst price).

Edit to add:

Case in point— I own a Reggie Jackson RC. It is a PSA 8. I am not a huge fan of its centering. I would like to upgrade it.

Now let's suppose an 8.5 comes up that looks exactly the same, but resides in an 8.5 holder. If I buy the 8.5 I may feel like I've just upgraded, but if I know the truth in terms of the cards in the holders, have I really upgraded-- or have I just wasted some money?

Foo3112

I personally wouldn’t spend that much on a card of someone who isn’t even in the hall of fame (obviously your referring to the Mattingly). But to each their own. Collect whatever makes you happy and if you have the funds, then I don’t see an issue with it. I can assure you there is a difference between a Henderson PSA 9 and a 10, the same way there’s a difference between an 8 and a 9. Now as far as a PSA 10 and a BGS 10 - A BGS 10 is suppose to be flawless in pretty much every aspect as to where a PSA 10 has a little tiny bit of wiggle room from perfection from what I have seen personally. I guess BGS 10's are for people who must have the absolute finest (which is fine and dandy) but I still like my 10's in PSA holders.

itzagoner

the .5 grade, particularly the 8.5 grade has some complexity, which i've learned along the way, so let's apply it here......

it seems the mid-grade doesn't always appeal in the minds of buyers, because it's NOT a 9, so it feels as though the attitude is "if it's not good enough, well....."

so then you need to address presentation.

does the 8.5 REALLY look that much better? or is it just a card being rewarded for attributes based on the current system.

this goes around the concept of "winning", which is what ultimately drives those who participate most actively in the Registry.

if it's just about the card itself and how well it presents, then plenty of cases could be made for a standard 8 being a BETTER choice than a similar 8.5, unless there is proof within the marketplace that the higher grade would be a wiser investment and consistently performing well.

PSASAP

For better or worse, not everyone takes a common sense approach to buying cards, or buying anything, for that matter. A frenzy usually starts with someone paying an unreasonably high price for something, which gets everyone scrambling to find out if they have the same item, and it's off to the races.

MattyC

Foo,

I agree that as long as anyone is happy with their purchase, all good. To each his own, always.

That said, I'm just wondering in this thread why, if say one does have the funds, one would choose to spend so much more on so little difference; of course I am speaking only to the specific case of choosing between a card in top BGS or PSA grade, and one right beneath it that is exceptionally strong-- a 10 "hiding out" in a 9 holder, as they say.

Take the Henderson for example. One of the 10s has tilt to the naked eye. I can show you a 9 that looks better. In fact, for fun I took many people at random-- hobbyists and outsiders-- and showed them identically-sized scans of both the 10 and the 9, with the grades unseen. I asked which they would pay more for... I kid you not, EVERYONE chose the PSA 9. In this case it would seem that paying a huge premium for "the best," unfortunately meant the best holder, not the card. That's the kind of unique situation graded cards can create in the hobby, an interesting one to kick around.

In the Henderson case, even if a given 10 is better than the most elite 9, and even if I have the money, I just can't fathom how that difference in condition is worth about $10,000. The multipliers in effect with the top grade cards almost beg one to seek and find the strongest examples one given grade below.

itzagoner

<< <i>To be clear: I am not saying that a truly PRISTINE or GEM MT card isn't an amazing thing-- those cards when deserving of the grade are gorgeous. But it seems to me that if one looks long enough they can find a card that is, if not the same, then so close that it is so very hard to justify the enormous cost difference.

I mean, you reach a point where you are paying a huge price for such an infinitesimal difference (and in some cases virtually no difference). Paying a big difference in money for a big difference in condition makes total sense to me, but paying a big difference in cash for a small difference in condition just doesn't sit as well for some reason.

In the end I wonder if psychology is the main impetus behind purchasing an exorbitantly-priced BGS 10 or PSA 10, as opposed to their strongest counterparts one grade below. Is it a competitive need to say one "has the best?" But it seems like the premium paid for some cards in the most elite grade is a high price to pay, to brandish a sticker applied by someone who at the end of the day is just another human being with an opinion. >>



i read and reread this part of your OP and dwelled on it a little, then realized we also have some pretty strong testimony in favor of making the right move at the right time in the manner of Marshall Fogel when he purchased his Mantles....do you think he was feeling competitive or simply trying to reach a virtually unreachable platform by having one of the very best examples known?

i mean, i couldn't imagine him thinking of being in a cost effective position of selecting a 9 instead and being satisfied with that. certainly not as an investment.

MattyC

Well, investment is a whole other story and does bring new factors into the decision to pay more for a top grade card. I'm talking about personal collections, without the intent to sell, but rather to keep and appreciate.

Interestingly though, Fogel hasn't sold his PSA 10 Mick and probably never will. So while I'm sure he wanted to avoid buying something that would decline in value, I'd hazard the guess that he bought it more because he wanted to have the best in his personal collection. What I can say for sure is this: if I had the cash at that level, and was offered both a PSA 9 #311 and a PSA 10... If I truly could not tell the difference to my naked eye, I would not spend an extra million or two for the 10 over the 9.

At the time he purchased his 10 Mick, that hundred or so grand was probably to him the way a PSA 10 1984 Donruss Mattingly is to me now, so it fell into that category I mention in the first post, where the collector just goes, "Well, it's so well within my budget AND accurately graded, why not grab the top grade now as opposed to searching for the strongest card one grade below."

itzagoner

<< <i>I'm talking about personal collections, without the intent to sell, but rather to keep and appreciate. >>



then, by all means, again it's a question which essentially answers itself.

you determine your price point and then find your huckleberry. i've got cards in my own collection which exemplify what i was looking for and i'm just fine not having a dissatisfying example in a higher grade.