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Collector coins will beat bullion over the long run
boxeldercoin
Posts: 69
Hi, If this has been said before please excuse me as I am new here. I feel that collector coins, such as key date coin and condition rarities will beat bullion over the long term. I am not saying that you should not buy bullion when the time is right but when it does go up sell and take a profit as sooner or later bullion will go back down. The trick is to know when to buy and sell. I have a lady here in the Rapid City, SD who was sold a bill of goods that silver never goes down and was buying silver up to May 2011 when silver hit $50 a ounce. When silver started to drop she found out the hard way about bullion. The same thing happened in the late 70's early 80's with silver. Back then some dealers were saying that silver would never go down and a few years later I was buy silver at $4 an ounce. Talking about the 70's and 80's makes me feel old but for you young folk out there I remember buying one ounce gold coins for $35 and was told buy my dad I was getting ripped off. History does repeat itself and listening to older collector never hurts and that is why I am a firm believer in belonging to coin clubs and attending as many coin show as possible. A lot can be learned by walking around a coin show and listening to the dealers. If nothing else by listening to the dealers talk you will learn who you want to deal with and who is full of B.S. Jim
Hi, I am a ANA, Central States, South Dakota, Black hills coin and stamp club member. My wife and I are both collectors for around 45 years.
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``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Over the long term we are all dead so not sure it matters all that much (LOL). I mostly care about the short-term and to some extent the intermediate term.
My bullion returns have CRUSHED my collector coin returns over the past 5-6 years. Is 5-6 years short term, mid-term or long-term? That depends on a lot of factors (including the age of the person involved I guess).
At least one paid newsletter (which I read) believes Obama has been the greatest thing for gold over the past 4 years and, if re-elected may continue that trend (and everyone is entitled to their opinion and I am not endorsing that view here, just pondering about it). But, hypothetically, if one believed that ... would they be better to worry about "long run" issues involving collector coins or try to attempt to "cash in" on their belief over the next 4 years (assuming he is re-elected today)? Alternatively, if Romney wins, might that be a negative for gold compared to an Obama win? Place your bets and we can all discuss how it turned out same time 4 years from now!
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Collector coins will beat bullion over the long run... if and only if:
you have an excellent eye for quality and
you have a good idea of which series/market is currently undervalued
you know how to grade properly
you have the time to research past prices and are able to spend hours finding coins that fit your strict criteria
you know how/where to get top dollar when selling your coins, and have the time to do so. Coins/collectibles are not nearly as liquid as bullion.
and so on.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Timing of your buys/sells is key. I remember well, not having a lot of cash, and really "wanting" a nice 1908-S MS64 RB cent I saw for sale. Traded in a 1 oz gold piece for it (worth 425 at the time) and like $50 cash. I still have the cent, love it, looks great in my collection -- HOWEVER -- I really should've kept the gold, and saved up to buy the cent. Lesson learned!
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Of all of these, I have the most fun with my job and numismatics.
any general group of collector coins up that amount. Assuming that the mania stage has yet to transpire, bullion will continue to out distance 95-99% of numismatic coins.
Well selected pop top moderns or other monstrous registry set coins might be able to compete. But it takes a sharp mind and tremendous market skills to pull it off (ie a Wondercoin).
Collector coins as a rule didn't beat bullion in the 1970's either. My one personal example was a gem 1867-s quarter that went up 16x from 1975 to 1980. Yeah, it
outperformed bullion. But coins like that were in the upper 1% of all US coins. Having been a collector during that 1972-1980 run up, I owned no coins at any time that outperformed
bullion. I made a few doubles and triples, but no 6 or 8 baggers. And not surprisingly, the same thing has happened from 2002-2008 and 2002-2012. Hmmm...must be a trend or I'm
just an idiot.....could be both. Of course had I been "smart" enough to overpay for that 1867-s quarter at auction in 1975 I could have beaten bullion. It would have been nice to turn
$1850 into $30,000. It wasn't to be. I had a 2nd chance at that coin in March 1977 for $5000 but refused to pay 3X the price in just 2 yrs. I also didn't have $5K just laying around.
Jim Halperin was smart enough to pick that up for that price and hold it in his NERCG rare coin fund I for
buy the coin for $9650 in 1986 when it reappeared at auction. That was a no brainer. In fact my high bid was $14,500 or just under half the former high.
Got gold?
I tried inventive ways to collect bullion to make it interesting. My last try was to buy moderately patina circulated AG morgans, and AU peace. I accumulated several hundred, but the only thing that excited me ways the heft of the bags and the look of all that old silver. Well, they all went when I had an opportunity to buy a 2011 IE challenger, and I do not regret it.
So, little to zero bullion, all things collectible with a main interest in tying them to history. Bullion to me is about as interesting as eating cardboard now. Also, I never had the stomach to flip coins, as it diminished my view of coins as a collectible, and I didnt want to turn a hobby into a part time job.
I did used to have a problem with not focusing my collection, but now I always ask myself if this piece will fit in my collection. I have very few duplicates of anything but peace dollars, because I feel they are undervalued and you can pick up some terrific deals buying them raw, not much above bullion.
<< <i>What works for me is a a traditional stock-heavy retirement account to which I contribute regularly, a few bonds, a little real estate, some bullion, some collector coins, a few non-traditional investments, and a heavy dose of continuing education in my field to stay competitive and develop my primary asset which is .......... me, and my ability to earn a paycheck.
Of all of these, I have the most fun with my job and numismatics. >>
there you go, me too for all of the above
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Wondercoin
Edited to add ... DerryB made an excellent point, as did RR.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>Gold up about $40/oz in past 24 hours? Kind of tough for "collector coins" to compete in short run / intermediate term - no?
Wondercoin
Edited to add ... DerryB made an excellent point, as did RR. >>
Yes gold and silver do bounce up and down faster than collector coins and I feel the risk is greater then rare coins. Wasn't it last week that gold dropped $40 and ounce also. And silver was $50 and ounce two years ago when I was at Central States show in May. I do believe buying bullion if the price is right is a good idea but to blindly buy bullion at any price like this lady did here because you think bullion will always go up is a mistake. I remember when silver was $4 an ounce and having dealers who would not buy 90% silver at any price. I tried to sell one dealer a $500 bag of walkers back then and was turned down at three times face and was told to just keep them which I did. We have had a long run of higher bullion prices but sooner or later the bubble will burst. History will repeat itself. And as far as selling rare coins I get around three to four letters a month from major auction houses wanting me to sell my rare coins for me so there must be a demand for rare coins. Ha.com calls me also about once every two months. The hard part for me anyway is the emotional attachment I get to rare coins that I know I will have a hard time replacing if I sell them. Jim
What do you think is a good annualized expected return for collector coins?
Here are the 10 year charts for the PCGS 3000 and gold:
<< <i>boxeldercoin,
What do you think is a good annualized expected return for collector coins?
Here are the 10 year charts for the PCGS 3000 and gold:
Hi, I honestly think the gold and silver run is close to being over and will drop in the next year or two. When it drops I will buy bullion again but as long as gold and silver are high I will stick to rare date coins. Maybe I am right or maybe I am wrong but I remember when in the 1980's people paid $800 an ounce for gold and had to wait until three years ago to break even or make a little money. Having to wait 25 to 30 years to break even is not what I call a good bet. And anyone out there that bought silver at $50 an ounce two years ago, how long will those people have to wait to break even. And yes the gains in bullion can be great but if bought at the wrong time the loss can be even greater. When gold jumps up a few years back was great for me as I was buying gold for over 20 years and had a average cost of $175 an ounce. And yes selling the gold was good for me as it allowed me to retire at age 52. But that does not mean I will buy now with prices as high as they are now. And at this time I think collector rare coins are a bargain and selling below their value. Will I buy gold and silver again, you bet I will bit I will buy when silver is $15 or lower and gold is at $600 or less. Until then my bet is with rare date coins. Jim
<< <i>
<< <i>boxeldercoin,
What do you think is a good annualized expected return for collector coins?
Here are the 10 year charts for the PCGS 3000 and gold:
Hi, I honestly think the gold and silver run is close to being over and will drop in the next year or two. When it drops I will buy bullion again but as long as gold and silver are high I will stick to rare date coins. Maybe I am right or maybe I am wrong but I remember when in the 1980's people paid $800 an ounce for gold and had to wait until three years ago to break even or make a little money. Having to wait 25 to 30 years to break even is not what I call a good bet. And anyone out there that bought silver at $50 an ounce two years ago, how long will those people have to wait to break even. And yes the gains in bullion can be great but if bought at the wrong time the loss can be even greater. When gold jumps up a few years back was great for me as I was buying gold for over 20 years and had a average cost of $175 an ounce. And yes selling the gold was good for me as it allowed me to retire at age 52. But that does not mean I will buy now with prices as high as they are now. And at this time I think collector rare coins are a bargain and selling below their value. Will I buy gold and silver again, you bet I will bit I will buy when silver is $15 or lower and gold is at $600 or less. Until then my bet is with rare date coins. Jim >>
I have heard this for about 3 or 4 years running. Respectfully please pick an actual date that the bullion market will drop enough to reach your buy levels of: silver is $15 or lower and gold is at $600 or less
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
My collector coins may or may not increase in value. That is not why I purchased them.
The bull run in PMs may not continue but I am happy with gains to date.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>boxeldercoin,
What do you think is a good annualized expected return for collector coins?
Here are the 10 year charts for the PCGS 3000 and gold:
Hi, I honestly think the gold and silver run is close to being over and will drop in the next year or two. When it drops I will buy bullion again but as long as gold and silver are high I will stick to rare date coins. Maybe I am right or maybe I am wrong but I remember when in the 1980's people paid $800 an ounce for gold and had to wait until three years ago to break even or make a little money. Having to wait 25 to 30 years to break even is not what I call a good bet. And anyone out there that bought silver at $50 an ounce two years ago, how long will those people have to wait to break even. And yes the gains in bullion can be great but if bought at the wrong time the loss can be even greater. When gold jumps up a few years back was great for me as I was buying gold for over 20 years and had a average cost of $175 an ounce. And yes selling the gold was good for me as it allowed me to retire at age 52. But that does not mean I will buy now with prices as high as they are now. And at this time I think collector rare coins are a bargain and selling below their value. Will I buy gold and silver again, you bet I will bit I will buy when silver is $15 or lower and gold is at $600 or less. Until then my bet is with rare date coins. Jim >>
I have heard this for about 3 or 4 years running. Respectfully please pick an actual date that the bullion market will drop enough to reach your buy levels of: silver is $15 or lower and gold is at $600 or less >>
Hows this, July 6, 2014 at 4:03pm, Ha, Ha,
I'm still curious what you think the expected return on collector coins will be in the long run.
If you think gold is going to drop by 65%, theoretically, you might believe collector coins will beat bullion if collector coins drop by just 64%.
Trying to get some frame of reference here.
<< <i>boxeldercoin,
I'm still curious what you think the expected return on collector coins will be in the long run.
If you think gold is going to drop by 65%, theoretically, you might believe collector coins will beat bullion if collector coins drop by just 64%.
Trying to get some frame of reference here. >>
Good point
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< <i>
<< <i>boxeldercoin,
I'm still curious what you think the expected return on collector coins will be in the long run.
If you think gold is going to drop by 65%, theoretically, you might believe collector coins will beat bullion if collector coins drop by just 64%.
Trying to get some frame of reference here. >>
Good point >>
I feel that RARE collector coins might drop but not as bad as bullion. If you see a drop in bullion that might see more people buying collector coins and key dates moving their price upwards. They can always mine more silver or gold but they can't make more 1909-s VDB's or 1901-s Barber quarters. There are only so many key date rare coins out there and as demand goes up so will the price. As our economy gets stronger and times get better the price of bullion will drop. The trick is to guess what level it will drop to. This has happened many times in the past and will happen again. And as far as rare coins or anything else buy what is rare and the price will go up. As in stocks, I bought stocks when it crashed a few years back, not after it started to rebound. Most people invest to late, they jump on the band wagon when the trip is almost over. The trick is to get on board before the trip starts, this way you make huge profits. And as far as rare coins a friend once told me to buy coins so outstanding that even in a poor coin market everyone will look at your coins and go "WOW I MUST OWN THAT COIN". We have all seen coins so outstanding that we pay what we have to to own that outstanding coin. And remember when it comes to coins, quality over quantity.
<< <i>
<< <i>Gold up about $40/oz in past 24 hours? Kind of tough for "collector coins" to compete in short run / intermediate term - no?
Wondercoin
Edited to add ... DerryB made an excellent point, as did RR. >>
Yes gold and silver do bounce up and down faster than collector coins and I feel the risk is greater then rare coins. Wasn't it last week that gold dropped $40 and ounce also. And silver was $50 and ounce two years ago when I was at Central States show in May. I do believe buying bullion if the price is right is a good idea but to blindly buy bullion at any price like this lady did here because you think bullion will always go up is a mistake. I remember when silver was $4 an ounce and having dealers who would not buy 90% silver at any price. I tried to sell one dealer a $500 bag of walkers back then and was turned down at three times face and was told to just keep them which I did. We have had a long run of higher bullion prices but sooner or later the bubble will burst. History will repeat itself. And as far as selling rare coins I get around three to four letters a month from major auction houses wanting me to sell my rare coins for me so there must be a demand for rare coins. Ha.com calls me also about once every two months. The hard part for me anyway is the emotional attachment I get to rare coins that I know I will have a hard time replacing if I sell them. Jim >>
Seems to me you have formulated a theory and now have neatly fit everything else to support with it regardless of the data presented by historical coin and bullion charts. If you
really feel bullion is due for a dump you should be buying short ETF's (UGLD, USLV) or selling silver or gold futures short. Much better leverage. When have falling bullion prices been great for the rare coin investment market? If you really feel bullion is headed down, rare coins probably isn't the place to be. The fact that you tried to sell $500 face of desireable Walkers at the bottom of the silver market ($4/oz) doesn't surprise me that a sale was tough. Had you had those same Walkers in Jan-April of 2011 people would have tripped over themselves to buy them...same comment in Jan-March 2008 or Jan-April 2006. The problem doesn't seem to be the coins, but your timing. I recall having the only graded MS65 1846 seated half back in spring 1988. I paid $3800 for it raw out of auction a few months earlier. I tried to get $4500 it for it with no luck. Even better it was a rarer Tall Date variety. Today that is a pop 1 coin worth $30K or more. I ended up selling it for $4200 to the only dealer who made me an offer...I need the cash flow more than the coin. It wasn't the coin or me, but the fact that the market stunk in early 1988. My March of 1990 that same coin was worth $10K to $12K and easily saleable. I also recall buying 4 PCGS boxes of MS65 1881-s dollars fresh out of a bag around 2002-2003 when they were worth a piddly $75 each. No one wanted them. And these were killer coins. I ended up selling them for $76 each just to get rid of them. Who figured that a couple years later they'd be $125 again and selling like hot cakes? And by 2011 they hit $225. Again, it's about the timing, not that MS65 Morgans stink all the time.
Auction houses have an insatiable demand to keep listing lots for sale. It's how they make money and survive. Then can't ever get enough. They'll just have more auctions if needed. They don't care what the coins sell for or if you get killed, as long as they get their 5-10%. This is why Stacks made so much consistent money from the 1930's to the 2000's. They just churned lots over and over regardless of market conditions. Heritage may be the only auction house that gets all the coins they need as the others keep on fighting over a shrinking market share. One could say the rare coin bubble burst in 1980 or possibly 1990 as most prices for "investment" coins haven't made it back to those benchmarks. Makes me wonder why one would think we're guaranteed higher prices going forward as more and more coins are graded and made available to the market place. Considering that rare coins made a 12 yr rally from 1996 to 2008 why would one think that we couldn't be in 6 yr downtrending period much the same as 1990-1996? Will rare coins buck the deleveraging that's coming in 2013-2014 while most people will be very frugal with their money (ie think 2009-2010 round 2 as another 4 yr cycle rolls through)? Most "rare" coins aren't that irreplaceable when you really look at it. I've only got 40 yrs of doing this on my side, but what do I know? You should have tried selling some of your rarities in Jan-August 2009, that would have been eye-opening for you. Coins that would have elicited a "I have to buy that from you," in the first half of 2008 quickly turned to "no thanks" in 2009. As far as the 09s-vdb or 1901-s 25c being rare...how many do you want? A simple 1858-0 or 1859-0 seated quarter in Fine at $50 is >5X rarer than a AG/Good 1901-s. Rarity depends on the reference being used. I'd rather have a roll of Fine-XF 1859-0's than a roll of Good 1901-s quarters....assuming I'm the one paying for them.
Let's not put the horse behind the cart. It's the PM's bull market of 2001-2012 that pulled rare coins along, not the other way around. There are hundreds of millions or even billions of people around the world that hold gold as both jewelry and investment, especially in Asia. US rare coins are a tiny blip in comparison. You can easily sell your 1 oz AGE for full market price in Hong Kong tomorrow. Try that with a handful of rarer US coins. But who knows. Maybe the Chinese and Indian citizens will stop buying gold jewelry/gold coins and demand rare US numismatic coins instead. When your typical "rare" US coin (like a MS65-67 Barber quarter) outperforms bullion from 2001-201X I will be the first one to write about it. Can't help but notice that the market peak in 2008 on the PCGS3000 was 72,000. Fwiw the 1989 market peak was 180,000. Hmm, 19 yrs to lose 40%? I know bullion from 1989 beat that. One thing I find very odd on the PCGS3000 chart is that from the 1989 peak there was a 5 wave down leg into 1993, and then a fairly flat rise into 2008. Most market corrections from that kind of monstrous peak have a secondary down leg somewhat similar to the first one (ie 1989-1994). Prices have been very sedate the past 19 years, not exactly what one would expect in a recovery to bull market. That's why I think the 1996-2008 was possibly just a dead cat bounce from the intial drop from 1989. This is all part of the process of wringing out 40-50 yrs of inflationary pressures on various types of assets, possibly including rare coins. What is concerning is that on the 10 yr PCGS3000 chart is that the general uptrend line from 2005-2011 has been broken. That needs to be regained fairly soon before it wanders too far from the trend line.
Don't fall in love with your coins....just have fun with them.
<< <i>I started out investing in bullion and switched to collectible coins. Quite a few times I "invested" is silver, mainly, and some gold, and have done well when I sold, but I have only been a collector since 2002.
I tried inventive ways to collect bullion to make it interesting. My last try was to buy moderately patina circulated AG morgans, and AU peace. I accumulated several hundred, but the only thing that excited me ways the heft of the bags and the look of all that old silver. Well, they all went when I had an opportunity to buy a 2011 IE challenger, and I do not regret it.
So, little to zero bullion, all things collectible with a main interest in tying them to history. Bullion to me is about as interesting as eating cardboard now. Also, I never had the stomach to flip coins, as it diminished my view of coins as a collectible, and I didnt want to turn a hobby into a part time job.
I did used to have a problem with not focusing my collection, but now I always ask myself if this piece will fit in my collection. I have very few duplicates of anything but peace dollars, because I feel they are undervalued and you can pick up some terrific deals buying them raw, not much above bullion.
Tallpaul, a terrific looking car -- hope you enjoy it! You should PM roadrunner from this thread if you want to talk cars, as he (as you might surmise from his name) likes and I know used to wheel and deal in, classic Mopars -- not sure if he does currently, but am betting he's still a "car guy" deep down.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>I'll take bullion. >>
Leave it to DE59 to state in 3 words what it took me 3 paragraphs to explain.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Gold up about $40/oz in past 24 hours? Kind of tough for "collector coins" to compete in short run / intermediate term - no?
Wondercoin
Edited to add ... DerryB made an excellent point, as did RR. >>
Yes gold and silver do bounce up and down faster than collector coins and I feel the risk is greater then rare coins. Wasn't it last week that gold dropped $40 and ounce also. And silver was $50 and ounce two years ago when I was at Central States show in May. I do believe buying bullion if the price is right is a good idea but to blindly buy bullion at any price like this lady did here because you think bullion will always go up is a mistake. I remember when silver was $4 an ounce and having dealers who would not buy 90% silver at any price. I tried to sell one dealer a $500 bag of walkers back then and was turned down at three times face and was told to just keep them which I did. We have had a long run of higher bullion prices but sooner or later the bubble will burst. History will repeat itself. And as far as selling rare coins I get around three to four letters a month from major auction houses wanting me to sell my rare coins for me so there must be a demand for rare coins. Ha.com calls me also about once every two months. The hard part for me anyway is the emotional attachment I get to rare coins that I know I will have a hard time replacing if I sell them. Jim >>
Seems to me you have formulated a theory and now have neatly fit everything else to support with it regardless of the data presented by historical coin and bullion charts. If you
really feel bullion is due for a dump you should be buying short ETF's (UGLD, USLV) or selling silver or gold futures short. Much better leverage. When have falling bullion prices been great for the rare coin investment market? If you really feel bullion is headed down, rare coins probably isn't the place to be. The fact that you tried to sell $500 face of desireable Walkers at the bottom of the silver market ($4/oz) doesn't surprise me that a sale was tough. Had you had those same Walkers in Jan-April of 2011 people would have tripped over themselves to buy them...same comment in Jan-March 2008 or Jan-April 2006. The problem doesn't seem to be the coins, but your timing. I recall having the only graded MS65 1846 seated half back in spring 1988. I paid $3800 for it raw out of auction a few months earlier. I tried to get $4500 it for it with no luck. Even better it was a rarer Tall Date variety. Today that is a pop 1 coin worth $30K or more. I ended up selling it for $4200 to the only dealer who made me an offer...I need the cash flow more than the coin. It wasn't the coin or me, but the fact that the market stunk in early 1988. My March of 1990 that same coin was worth $10K to $12K and easily saleable. I also recall buying 4 PCGS boxes of MS65 1881-s dollars fresh out of a bag around 2002-2003 when they were worth a piddly $75 each. No one wanted them. And these were killer coins. I ended up selling them for $76 each just to get rid of them. Who figured that a couple years later they'd be $125 again and selling like hot cakes? And by 2011 they hit $225. Again, it's about the timing, not that MS65 Morgans stink all the time.
Auction houses have an insatiable demand to keep listing lots for sale. It's how they make money and survive. Then can't ever get enough. They'll just have more auctions if needed. They don't care what the coins sell for or if you get killed, as long as they get their 5-10%. This is why Stacks made so much consistent money from the 1930's to the 2000's. They just churned lots over and over regardless of market conditions. Heritage may be the only auction house that gets all the coins they need as the others keep on fighting over a shrinking market share. One could say the rare coin bubble burst in 1980 or possibly 1990 as most prices for "investment" coins haven't made it back to those benchmarks. Makes me wonder why one would think we're guaranteed higher prices going forward as more and more coins are graded and made available to the market place. Considering that rare coins made a 12 yr rally from 1996 to 2008 why would one think that we couldn't be in 6 yr downtrending period much the same as 1990-1996? Will rare coins buck the deleveraging that's coming in 2013-2014 while most people will be very frugal with their money (ie think 2009-2010 round 2 as another 4 yr cycle rolls through)? Most "rare" coins aren't that irreplaceable when you really look at it. I've only got 40 yrs of doing this on my side, but what do I know? You should have tried selling some of your rarities in Jan-August 2009, that would have been eye-opening for you. Coins that would have elicited a "I have to buy that from you," in the first half of 2008 quickly turned to "no thanks" in 2009. As far as the 09s-vdb or 1901-s 25c being rare...how many do you want? A simple 1858-0 or 1859-0 seated quarter in Fine at $50 is >5X rarer than a AG/Good 1901-s. Rarity depends on the reference being used. I'd rather have a roll of Fine-XF 1859-0's than a roll of Good 1901-s quarters....assuming I'm the one paying for them.
Let's not put the horse behind the cart. It's the PM's bull market of 2001-2012 that pulled rare coins along, not the other way around. There are hundreds of millions or even billions of people around the world that hold gold as both jewelry and investment, especially in Asia. US rare coins are a tiny blip in comparison. You can easily sell your 1 oz AGE for full market price in Hong Kong tomorrow. Try that with a handful of rarer US coins. But who knows. Maybe the Chinese and Indian citizens will stop buying gold jewelry/gold coins and demand rare US numismatic coins instead. When your typical "rare" US coin (like a MS65-67 Barber quarter) outperforms bullion from 2001-201X I will be the first one to write about it.
Don't fall in love with your coins....just have fun with them.
I think you made my point for me better than I did. . You bought a coin for $3800 a a few years later at the right time you said you could have sold it for $10K - $12K. Hell of a profit. I am not great with words but like you said, there is a time to buy rare coins and a time to hold rare coins and a time to sell rare coins. And as far as the 1909-s VDB or the 1901-s Quarter I just used them as a example as newer collectors would know those dates better. I know they are around as I sent 4- 1909-s VDB into PCGS for grading this last week. And yes silver and gold is a good investment at the right time, I just don't think this is the time. I like that you have been collecting for 40 years, as I have been collecting for 47 as I started when I was 7. The main reason I post threads like this is because it makes people think and we get some great post like yours. The other site I use to be on was made up of post like, Guess the grade or how to kill zombie's and my favorite, How to clean or tone your coins. People like you is the reason I moved to this site, great respond to a thread. P.S. If you like seated quarters my favorite is the 1869-s. I owned a great Mint state coin. I know they are not that rare but my wife and I love the bust coins. I think I am getting off the subject so thanks for the post. Jim
In real time, outplaying all the other players is the trick. Just because a person happend to make a few correct calls does not mean he'll be so lucky next time. You're going to feel awfully left out if gold runs up another $5k/ounce in the next 5-10 years. You'll feel like a genius if you see it bottom out to $400 and ounce. Either scenario is possible. There are still forces affecting our little experiment with a fiat currency system that haven't been fully explored yet.
<< <i>In retrospect, it's child's play to recognize opportunity in both markets.
In real time, outplaying all the other players is the trick. Just because a person happend to make a few correct calls does not mean he'll be so lucky next time. You're going to feel awfully left out if gold runs up another $5k/ounce in the next 5-10 years. You'll feel like a genius if you see it bottom out to $400 and ounce. Either scenario is possible. There are still forces affecting our little experiment with a fiat currency system that haven't been fully explored yet. >>
I agree but I do love the game. I think in a few months we will have a better idea of what will happen in the future.
In a few months I think we'll have a better idea of what happened in the past.
Predictable markets have a way of influencing investor behavior to the point that they suddenly again become unpredictable.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
I love a good debate when both sides are being contrarian. For instance, you can always make a case that something is overextended when it has risen for 10-12 years in a row. Like the money supply, and like the debt for instance.
I think a falling gold market is the least of our worries, especially since we appear to be headed toward unlimited and unending money creation. Could there be any other possible outcome besides asset inflation when we've already hit bottom with interest rates and money creation keeps ramping up, even as the debt is going exponential? The math doesn't work any other way.
I agree with DE59.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>When your typical "rare" US coin (like a MS65-67 Barber quarter) outperforms bullion from 2001-201X I will be the first one to write about it. >>
The more relevant issue is the performance of bullion versus rare coins from 2012 into the future. As a general investing rule, I'd rather buy something that has been down for two or three decades instead of something making new all time highs.
Perhaps the best thing about "investing" in rare coins is that they can often be purchased for below market value. Unless you're in the business of ripping the public, gold cannot be purchased at a discount to market value.
<< <i>
<< <i>When your typical "rare" US coin (like a MS65-67 Barber quarter) outperforms bullion from 2001-201X I will be the first one to write about it. >>
The more relevant issue is the performance of bullion versus rare coins from 2012 into the future. As a general investing rule, I'd rather buy something that has been down for two or three decades instead of something making new all time highs.
Perhaps the best thing about "investing" in rare coins is that they can often be purchased for below market value. Unless you're in the business of ripping the public, gold cannot be purchased at a discount to market value. >>
That is some good points you made.
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