Seems like prices are slowly grinding lower

Bayard1908

Proof Mercury dimes and proof Walking Liberty halves have been consistently going down for 5 years or more. Proof Liberty nickels and proof three cent nickels have been down for a couple years. Proof Franklin halves seem to be drifting lower now. Proof Seated Liberties in some denominations are also starting to struggle.

Overdate

Some of the possible reasons:

Lingering recession
Aging and shrinking of collector base (young people are more into social networking, video games)
Shift of collector interest to expensive bullion coins and modern commems

BustHalfBrian

Values will fluctuate - That's just how the rare-coin market works.

But I do agree that we shouldn't expect to see an increase in these coins' values any time soon. "Young people" around my age (I'm 16-years-old - gasp!) generally aren't interested in anything as enriching as numismatics, so seeing these coins gain popularity (or any other coins, for that matter) isn't likely.

Like Overdate pointed out, unfortunately, the collector base is shrinking. But I guess there's no way of knowing what the future will hold, eh? We can only hope for the best.

GrumpyEd

I think the drops over the last 2-3 years are mostly from the lingering recession and focus on PMs.
On top of that is the dropping collector base and maybe shift away from collecting by sets but those trends are slower than the latest drop from the recession. I don't think the recession is going away regardless of what the news says.

High end or primo stuff does better.

daOnlyBG

I suspect that anything under $2,000 or so in present value will gradually decline in the next 5-10 years, mainly because of investors trading coins like a "commodity" and less so as a numismatic "investment." I'm not suggesting that coins valued at or under $2000 today will lose complete numismatic value- I just think more and more investors will pay less attention to coins we find interesting here and more attention toward those inexpensive silver dimes and half dollars.

Having said that, I'm very bullish on commodity prices throughout the next year- especially if Obama wins the election (weak dollar --> higher values in precious metals). Coin roll hunters and metal detecting folks know what they'r up to..

Justacommeman

A lot of supply hit the MS/PF Walker market( white coins) in higher grades the past couple of years. It seems the supply is finally come off the market and prices have stabilized here at least.

MJ

Manorcourtman

Haven't Proof Buffs and early Lincolns suffered also? When I look at them now it seems like they are down from a couple of years ago. Maybe it's my fading mind, dunno

1Mike1

<< <i>Haven't Proof Buffs and early Lincolns suffered also? When I look at them now it seems like they are down from a couple of years ago. Maybe it's my fading mind, dunno >>


You're right about the Lincolns. I don't know about the Buffs.

oreville

There has been a gradual decline in interest for quality proof coins vis a vis quality mint state coins over the past 20 years or so.

For example, I hardly have any interest in high grade proof coins of the 19th and 20th century eras. Yet, I go ga-ga over condition rarity mint state coins of the same era. I own probably close to 1000 nice slabbed mint state coins of the era. Proofs of the same era? Total? Probably 10!

Why? Proof coins were made to look nice. Ho-hum. But mint state coins were struck for commerce and not made to look nice. So when a beautiful high grade mint state coin is found, that is something special.

I remember collectors of the 1970's drooling over proof seated liberty heads, proof barbers and proof Liberty Head nickels and ignoring their mint state brethen. Now, it is the opposite as the condition rarity mint state cousins are so much rarer.

But there will come a time when proofs will stage a little comeback but it will only be little.

The mind set of the collector has changed.

Only proof gold and proof silver dollars, to a lesser extent, has held up well.

wondercoin

Over the (same) past 5 years, a number of the modern gold, and even platinum coins, have doubled, tripled and even quadrupled! These prices are grinding higher and higher in many cases. As great classic coins have as well in many cases.

It's all about buying the RIGHT stuff and, in many cases, not depending upon the collecting public to finally get back into collecting this or that. That day may never come in this decade.

Just my two cents.

Wondercoin

oreville

Interesting what wondercoin states.

There seems to be an opposite happenstance in that there seems to be more interest in proof modern bullion coins than their mint state cousins.
That seems to be a normal and typical reaction of new collectors who are attracted to the glitter and beauty of the proof coins versus the ordinary looking mint state coins.

Will that someday change as well where collectors with increasing experience begin to appreciate the ordinary mint state bullion coins for what they are and that a spectacular looking mint state bullion coin will someday outpace the proof coin cousin?

I do not know because these mint state bullion coins were NOT made for commerce but instead sold to collectors so quality control was high for minting them and they were saved as profusely as the proof versions.

hammer1

I'm in the declining collector base camp. Perhaps the reason for the moderns escalation is not due to collectors, but rather speculators. Which makes it an unstable market.

HalfStrike

This may be too simplistic but the losses being heaved on the next generation via the current proof sets coming out of the mint may be part of the reason there is no interest in more classic proofs. There are just too many modern proof sets out there and most people have learned they are dead ends as far as investments go.

renomedphys

<< <i>Why? Proof coins were made to look nice. Ho-hum. But mint state coins were struck for commerce and not made to look nice. So a beautiful high grade mint state coin is found, that is something special. >>



This was me 5 years ago, until I discovered "rare" proofs, which to me, are quite desirable. It all started with a proof 1916 MPL with a mintage of 600. Now I'm on the lookout for nice Proof Flying Eagles and Large Cents, with mintages well under 100.

That said, I totally get what you are saying. Really nice MS coins, especially in denominations that circulated heavily, are rare as hen's teeth.

Billet7

Everything I collect always seems to go up. Course I don't collect proofs.

EagleEye

I think it has more to do with the way prices are figured and reported. Used to be that dealers bids and dealers bids alone set the market. Now prices are gathered from auction sales. For items that are numerous in a certain grade like Proof Merc dimes in PR65, prices will gradually sink because the buyers are usually dealers or collectors trying to buy below the market price. Then the retail buyers see the prices and don't want to pay too much more either. It's a downward cycle that can only be broken when a dealer steps up and tries to promote the market.

rays

For many 19th century series, high-grade proofs are more common than high-grade mint state pieces as the former were specifically saved. I personally have never been much excited by proofs, no matter how rare.

Bayard1908

<< <i>A couple of points:
proof coins with a mintage of 600 is not at all rare and is easy to acquire since many were saved. >>



You have an interesting perspective, one that I don't happen to share. The total mintage of all pre-WWI proofs, in all denominations half cent through double eagle combined, is less than the mintage of the 1909-S VDB.

rays

<< <i>

<< <i>A couple of points:
proof coins with a mintage of 600 is not at all rare and is easy to acquire since many were saved. >>



You have an interesting perspective, one that I don't happen to share. The total mintage of all pre-WWI proofs, in all denominations half cent through double eagle combined, is less than the mintage of the 1909-S VDB. >>



Which would you rather have:

1. 1909-S VBD 1c in PCGS MS65 RED;

or

2. All the Merc proofs in PCGS PR-65

?

MrEureka

Another factor at play: If something gets so easy to collect that it's not challenging, it gets less interesting to collect, and it may become less valuable as a result. It's also interesting to think that the increasing ease in collecting some things may have led many people to collect more difficult series, thus leading to a third "bifurcation" of the coin market. In other words, not only is there a bifurcation between top quality coins and dreck, and between top rarities and common stuff, but also between the easy-to-collect and the difficult.

originalisbest

Haven't studied the issues enough to know exactly the price trends; in general, I'd agree with oreville. In particular with proof Mercs, they are most definitely a promotable coin -- I distinctly recall seeing a Coins ad from Devonshire Rare Coin Gallery in about 1985 (never ordered from them, but always looked at their ads. Were they any good?) offering a gem proof merc for like $595, and lamenting that I'd probably never be able to afford one (after all, I was 14 and a newbie collector.) How times have changed! :-D Yet, I still have no proof Mercs in my collection -- I wouldn't mind owning one, but it's not really on my radar at the moment.

originalisbest

<< <i>Another factor at play: If something gets so easy to collect that it's not challenging, it gets less interesting to collect, and it may become less valuable as a result. It's also interesting to think that the increasing ease in collecting some things may have led many people to collect more difficult series, thus leading to a third "bifurcation" of the coin market. In other words, not only is there a bifurcation between top quality coins and dreck, and between top rarities and common stuff, but also between the easy-to-collect and the difficult. >>



You may have something there Andy, thinking of Barbers in particular, and the somewhat difficult (to very, very difficult) task of finding a lot of the issues in original, unmessed-with F to XF, for which uncs (if you have the money) of the same are relatively easier to source.

roadrunner

Just too many graded now. And the numbers will only rise over time. Without increasing collectors/investors/speculators to balance this, price only has one way to go.
While the trend to high grade moderns is in full swing, there's no guarantee how long it continues and if those higher prices are maintained. I'm still not a believer in the
huge price differences between MS/PF68-MS/PF70 moderns.

JCMhouston

As Eagle eye mentioned, they are just waiting for a well timed promotion. I've only been collecting since the early 70's, but in my limited experience coin prices go up, then they go down, then they go up and just repeat as required. Matte proof lincolns got promoted a couple of years ago and prices went crazy, now they are going back to normal. Once it was blast white Morgans, then brightly colored Morgans, at times it has even been classic commems.

fastfreddie

<< <i>Just too many graded now. And the numbers will only rise over time. Without increasing collectors/investors/speculators to balance this, price only has one way to go. >>



I know this may seem a bit off but I kind of feel the same way about my mid. to high grade business strike seated quarters.

More are being graded which pushes the common and unsightly to Ebay and alike combined with a small or smaller collector base.

Can these be doomed too except for the very high grade, exceptional eye appeal, and R6+ coins?

Mowgli

With respect to Liberty Nickels I think the prices on proofs has fallen because the ones being offered are not that nice. Trying to find a nice, non-splotchy coin is hard to do. I do not believe these coins sell for bid when surfaces are clean and the coin is white. Likewise on Walker proofs - clear coins bring better prices than ones with haze in the same grade. It could be hat prices are falling but it seems like quality is down as well.

Walkerfan

I will just comment on a broader level, since I am not really into proofs and I never have been. I like proofs and they are produced better and are thus more eye-appealing. They were minted in very low numbers but they were saved more BUT they STILL can be very RARE.

I tend to agree with Oreville. I am enthralled by coins that are condition and/or strike rarity coins that were poorly produced and heavily circulated, so when you find a nice problem free example----you are in AWE. THAT is scarcity and that is VALUE and the demand and prices for such pieces will hold up. IMHO. I certainly don't see such coins getting much lower in price than they currently are and they CERTAINLY will not become more available. An older collector once told me that such coins are 'freaks of nature' and 'they just should NOT exist' and THAT is what collectors pay for in ANY market (coins, comics, art etc. etc.) and that is what grips your attention to them and interest in them.

Now is a GOOD time, as it is a BUYERS market. As far as collector demographics is concerned, this is my feeling----I STILL see collectors in their 20s and early 30s being very much active and MANY of them participate on these boards. Also, the VERY young who are in their teens and such that are only interested in video games and Facebook for example will grow and mature and when they do, I think many (not all but MANY) will find an appreciation for rare coins just as we do. That, in conjunction with market prices rising more in the future, will create an even MORE BULLISH coin market in the future.

Maybe I am wrong (and I hope that I'm not) but I feel quite secure with my money invested in coins---it just feels right and it doesn't scare me, as they have been steady upward performers for the last 50-60 years AND EVEN LONGER. I certainly don't see any LT losses if nothing else.

EagleEye

Compare large cents with mercury dimes. There are at least 5 dealers specializing in large cents and they compete at auction for their coins. There are also collectors buying at auction. This competition solidifies prices and drives them higher. For mercury dimes, they are typically an add-on to dealer's inventory and they only add them if they are attractively priced, unless they are the low pop or rare dates.

There is an underlying collector demand for mercury dimes, but this demand, driven mostly by dealers, is for bargain priced coins rather than overpaying for the right coin. For large cents, the dealers and collectors are willing to pay "too much" for the right coins at auction. (I might add, for Indian cents as well)

originalisbest

Cool observations, Rick -- I tend to agree (and have always loved Indian cents too!)

originalisbest

Overall I agree with realone, when I can afford to buy coins, I do so; really due to other obligations I certainly haven't spent what I used to in the past. However, I've retained most of what I've owned, and still enjoy adding to it in small ways when I can.

cladking

<< <i>I will just comment on a broader level, since I am not really into proofs and I never have been. I like proofs and they are produced better and are thus more eye-appealing. They were minted in very low numbers but they were saved more BUT they STILL can be very RARE.

I tend to agree with Oreville. I am enthralled by coins that are condition and/or strike rarity coins that were poorly produced and heavily circulated, so when you find a nice problem free example----you are in AWE. THAT is scarcity and that is VALUE and the demand and prices for such pieces will hold up. IMHO. I certainly don't see such coins getting much lower in price than they currently are and they CERTAINLY will not become more available. An older collector once told me that such coins are 'freaks of nature' and 'they just should NOT exist' and THAT is what collectors pay for in ANY market (coins, comics, art etc. etc.) and that is what grips your attention to them and interest in them.

Now is a GOOD time, as it is a BUYERS market. As far as collector demographics is concerned, this is my feeling----I STILL see collectors in their 20s and early 30s being very much active and MANY of them participate on these boards. Also, the VERY young who are in their teens and such that are only interested in video games and Facebook for example will grow and mature and when they do, I think many (not all but MANY) will find an appreciation for rare coins just as we do. That, in conjunction with market prices rising more in the future, will create an even MORE BULLISH coin market in the future.

Maybe I am wrong (and I hope that I'm not) but I feel quite secure with my money invested in coins---it just feels right and it doesn't scare me, as they have been steady upward performers for the last 50-60 years AND EVEN LONGER. I certainly don't see any LT losses if nothing else. >>



It is time for collectors and speculators who are thinking long term to start dabbling in some of
the weaker areas. Part of having the "right" coins is buying them when they're actually available
and some of these simply don't show up very often. There will be further demographic pressure
damaging some of these markets (a few have barely started) and there might be further macro-
economic pressures on even the strongest markets.

There is another generation coming along and I sense the pressure is finally starting to add up
significantly. But in some areas the demand won't match the increased supply from demographic
forces for a while yet. Mint state coins will probably continue to enjoy much more demand than
proofs but it's safe to predict there will be numerous and unforeseeable changes over the next
decade (or two). Collectors will always demand beauty, history, rarity, and classic quality even
as the referents for these terms evolve.

librtyhead

Back in the 30's 40's when my Grandfather collected coins there were hardly as many collectors as there are today. The market has ballooned out and is contracting a bit now. I have faith that it will come back, Hopefully in a healthy reincarnation as long as the forgery and fake people are lined up and shot before they scare away the newbies.

Walkerfan

<< <i>Back in the 30's 40's when my Grandfather collected coins there were hardly as many collectors as there are today. The market has ballooned out and is contracting a bit now. I have faith that it will come back, Hopefully in a healthy reincarnation as long as the forgery and fake people are lined up and shot before they scare away the newbies. >>