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1986 fleer basketball sealed wax box
cardcollector2000
Posts: 152
I think this will one of the most valuable items of the modern era because people keep ripping them open to get the GEM MT 10's when this stuff really starts to dry up I belive sealed wax boxes will reach 30k in the next 5 years or so. sealed boxes used to be around 10k a few years ago now they are 14 to 16k . I hope BBCEX gets one soon as I will buy it . Unless Fritcsh cards is sitting on a 100 cases these will be worth a ton of money
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-A sealed case would be a real investment. I remember years ago, I think Mark Murphy had a few? And Dave and Adams card world have handled a few of them. I think they were $125,000? but now if you'd multiply the box price (14-16 k) times 12, you get closer to $180 k. Plus a possible unopened premium.
That case of 72/73 Topps boxes on the BBCE site was pretty crazy. I think they sold out of those.
<< <i>I think a sealed case will be worth 300k to 500k in the next 5 years unless there is a huge find then no it will stay at around 125k to 150k >>
That's a really optimistic price on the high end but I could see it happening on the lower end for the unopened premium BUT......the premium would be limited as individual boxes are inspected and authenticated to ensure proper sequencing....
I was just going through a Becket from 2001 and Dave and Adams had packs for about $280......roll back to 1991...and I think boxes were running about $40....lol....so who knows!
1. More bang for the buck could be had back in the late 90s with these around $200 a pack considering Jordan 9s went for about $2,500 then and Jordan 10s were well in the five figures. Today, the 10s seem to hit around $7,500 to $9,000 while the 9s have settled in around $1,500.00. Given the still relative number of raw of these that will be graded, I can only see these dropping further.
2. PSA 10s of the other stars have dropped considerably as well. These will continue to drop.
Despite the rather precipitous drop in graded card prices, packs have almost doubled in price in about the last 10 years. To me, the prices seem overinflated given those factors. Even if you hit a Jordan 10 out of a box, you would be hard pressed to break even.
Of course, my perspective is from the "it will be purchased to be opened" view point. Things, admittedly, could be viewed differently looking at it just from the perspective of remaining unopened. However, I personally cannot see the product climbing even higher given the number of cards from the set that have been graded.
What is not in dispute is the set is extremely popular and will remain popular. It therefore would not surprise me if the unopened skyrockets but in my view, given the parameters above, I think it would be a gamble to invest this heavily in a relatively new product and expect it to continue to climb.
So I will sit back and wait for the bump of this thread in 2017.
But also keep in mind that people have bought this box from 10,000-14,000 over the last few years. If this box were to go to 20,000-25,000 all of a suden. Then I think there will be a serge of sellers to cash in on a good potential profit. Bringing the box value back down again. It will not just keep going up and up. It will go up and down. But I agree it will go overall at a steady increase.
Take the 1961-62 Fleer BK for an example. Way more scarce than the 1986. There are not cases and cases of this stuff sitting in closets like the 1986 Fleer BK right now. There may be 1 or 2. And I would think there are at least 20+ cases of the 1986 BK sitting around. yet the 1961 Packs only go for 3x an 1986 Pack. Those 1961s have slowed down on price if you think about it. If the 1986 were ever to be a 1,000.00 pack then you must think the 1961s would be 5,000 yet they are far from being that. I can see the 1986s setteling at 450-500 in the next 7 years. But a 30,000 box wont happen for a long long time.
I know a few people that are sitting on a few cases and if it were to go up to 500 a pack I bet there would be about 5 cases to hit the market during that year. But the jordan would have to be bringing 25k like it once did. And I also think that is hard to imagine with there being so many 10s in the market. Also look what happend when that PSA 10 hit over 11,000 this year. We has a serge of 10s come out. Same thing will happen with the wax. Which is why its at 375.00 now a pack.
<< <i>No chance the 86 wax are way overpriced at 375. It was the only packs that could not sell on the latest pack rips. Way to many cards out there, tons of stuff still to be graded. Not sure how an 86 pack is worth more than a 75 topps baseball pack. >>
The 75 Baseball lacks the sheer amount of HOF rookie cards that 86 Fleer has. It also lacks a rookie of a living legend like Jordan.
Unless you had somehow got your hands on the Star cards, most of us had been waiting for a nice Basketball card set to released.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< <i>There will probably always be a decent demand for this product to an extent just based on the consolation prizes that you get in the packs. Assuming everyone who buys the packs to rip are trying to get a minty fresh Jordan, you'd have to say that if you don't hit a Jordan your odds is still pretty good at pulling any number of HOF rookies. It's probably pretty rare to rip a pack and be left holding all commons. I have that happen to me a lot when I buying vintage baseball. Much more difficult to pull a good card. I would guess the excitement and manageable disappointment with the 86 Fleer will keep people buying for years. >>
I was thinking the same thing along the lines of "consolation prizes" but then I considered the fact that so many HOF RC's in that set as well as 88-89 have really dropped since the early 90's, and I dont see a reason why any of them would go back up. Maybe Barkley in the 86-87 set, but that is all I can see. Drexler, Malone, Thomas, Wilkins? There is scant regional demand for them at best. So if those prices continue to decline, which has been the historic trend, then you are really just chasing the Jordan RC and sticker.
Go to the pop report and figure out the relative percentages/VCP $$ of Jordan PSA 5 - 10, apply those percentages at VCP$$ to the number of Jordan's you get per box, and then add that up. Then add up approx 3.5 x $200, which is the going rate for NM sets on ebay w/o the Jordan, to come up with a reasonable price for a wax box assuming you would rip it now.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
The 75 Baseball lacks the sheer amount of HOF rookie cards that 86 Fleer has. It also lacks a rookie of a living legend like Jordan.
Actually, the 75 Topps baseball set contains more HOF RCs than any other baseball set from the 1970s with Brett, Yount, Carter and Rice all HOFers.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
-I think there's been an unopened gambling "premium" since 1999/2000 when the 86 fleer packs were $200. You have pack breaks on youtube. Pack breaks organized over the internet. There are less supply of other packs to open "for fun".
I think there were more vintage packs to open for fun 20-25 years ago (i.e. 61 Fleer use to be more available from 1990-95). I seem to remember more 70/71 Topps packs. Remember when those were $150-175?
A lot of vintage packs have been opened up, so if you ask yourself, what can I gamble on for fun.....86 Fleer comes to mind.
-Jordan also has a huge international base. And the NBA has become much more popular overseas. The guys playing in the 61 Fleer set have been pretty much forgotten about. There are more modern collectors also of 80's and 90's material vs the 60's.
I think the 86 fleer pack really fills a void in the last 25 years of packs. First set, tons of rookies. If you have $350-500 to "gamble" with at the National on a pack, what are you going to pick? And you want something exclusive. Probably 86 Fleer.
TheClockworkAngelCollection
<< <i>Just not going to be a high enough demand to pay 30K for a box. Not gonna happen. I think there are much better options as far as unopened stuff goes...any of the OPC stuff from the 70's, 84 and 86 football, and even 70's Topps Baseball is better and much rarer >>
I agree with you somewhat clockworkangel but the OPC stuff is rare but there is no real high demand for it except for advanced collectors. Every kid man and women all over the world Know who Jordan is. they dont know who jerry rice dan marino john elway is excpet for in the usa for the most part. as for the OPC baseball not alot of people from those 70's sets are in high demand I mean ask 100 non serious collectors what would they rather own a 1971 OPC nolan ryan PSA 10 or a jordan rookie PSA 10 . I would guess almost all would want a Jordan rookie. Thats why the Jordan is worth alot now is for that reason tons of Jordans probably between 50 and 100 thousand made or more but the demand is far greater then that for Jordan rookies
Also like the opinions of others on his original prediciton, especially statement by CDsnuts of "0% chance an 86/87 fleer wax box will command 30k in the next 5 years" and others agreeing.......well $29,500 is close enough I would guess.
Well technically my prediction was in 5 years, so if they hit $30k after 2 years then fall below that after another 3 years I will be correct.
<< <i>Also like the opinions of others on his original prediciton, especially statement by CDsnuts of "0% chance an 86/87 fleer wax box will command 30k in the next 5 years" and others agreeing.......well $29,500 is close enough I would guess.
Well technically my prediction was in 5 years, so if they hit $30k after 2 years then fall below that after another 3 years I will be correct. >>
George W. approves of that math..lol..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
$150 per pack around 1994 - I thought "that" was outrageous. What the hell do I know?
Actually, he said it would hit $30k within 5 years. He did not say it would be at $30k at the end of 5 years
Find a nice PSA 9 Jordan for $2300-2800 with a chance to bump to a 10. This guarantees me a nice Jordan.
Buy packs that are from a fresh box and have them sealed by BBCE - find a clean box from them as well at some point.
Buy other stars from the set like Magic, Barkley, Ewing...
Sit and wait for things to explode in the future.
I like the way you think. Also, I said a "roughly" 0% chance- hardly an absolute statement.
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Had been on there for months.
Anyone know if it sold?
<< <i>Seems as if the "not sealed" but opened wax case of 12 1986 Fleer basketball boxes that was listed for $300,000 is no longer listed on Ebay.
Had been on there for months.
Anyone know if it sold? >>
Looks like it sold offline, it's showing "This listing was ended by the seller because the item is no longer available."
<< <i>Looks like it sold offline, it's showing "This listing was ended by the seller because the item is no longer available." >>
would be interesting to try and find out. no longer available is just one of the options you clan pick when ending an auction listing early, others include things like "error in the listing" and a couple others.
would be good to know if this thing really did sell - who's in for a forum multi box purchase or even a single box break?
I thought this was a good read starting back from 2012. Funny how folks were saying there was zero chance of this box reaching the 30K mark and I know that these boxes were indeed selling at 44K at this years National. Just goes to show you - never underestimate the power of these Fleer Boxes or Jordan rookies.
Just a heartwarming feel good story. I don't see a decline whatsoever. Sky's the limit on unopened.
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Collection: https://flickr.com/photos/185200668@N06/albums
I read this and think of how much I miss reading Lee’s (CD Nuts) and Neil’s (itzagoner) posts.
Cool revisit and Whew glad to see I was on the over $30k side of the debate back then that would have been embarrassing.
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Anyone here have a complete 86F wax box?
I know someone here who does but I'll let them say they have it. Maybe they may not want that information shared.
Here's the guy quietly sitting on a couple sealed cases.
That's all this hobby needs, 86 Fleer Bkt Ball cases smelling like some cheap stogey.
Time for some FeBreeze.
I've had two, both BBCE. Sold one and kept the better of the two.
IG: goatcollectibles23
The biggest lesson I've learned in this hobby, and in life, is that if you have a strong conviction, you owe it to yourself to see it through. Don't sell yourself, or your investments, short. Unless the facts change. Then sell it all.
You're my hero. If you don't mind, can you share some pictures of both, what made one better than the other and how long you held onto the one you sold before you got rid of it?
I don't think I have any pictures of the first box, but I'll check my files.
First box was a BBCE authentic 36 pack box, which means the packs are legit and untampered, but the packs are not in the box in the same order as from the factory. These are typically called Frankenstein boxes. Paid $32k, sold for $42k.
Second box is a BBCE authentic wax box from the Sherburne find, with a Jordan RC on top of one of the packs. I also have the original factory case the box was located in. I have this item brokered for sale through BBCE right now on their website with great pics and story behind the find. This box is as close to FASC as any box yet discovered. I'm looking to sell this box to buy a Jordan game used jersey. Pic below.
IG: goatcollectibles23
The biggest lesson I've learned in this hobby, and in life, is that if you have a strong conviction, you owe it to yourself to see it through. Don't sell yourself, or your investments, short. Unless the facts change. Then sell it all.