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2004 Proof Platinum vs 2008 Proof Platinum
wondercoin
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Even today (4 years later), 2004 proof platinum sets have higher bids than 2008 proof platinum sets on the dealer network where a great deal of "action" takes place on proof platinum eagle trading. Yet, 2008 proof platinum is supposed to be the "KING" of the series with a mintage of just 4,020 total possible sets vs. 5,063 total possible 2004 sets. 2008 proof platinum sets are, hand down, the lowest mintage proof platinum ever produced by the US Mint. Yet, even in Eric Jordan and John Maben's recent book on the 50 most popular modern coins, all (4) proof platinum denominations from 2004 are selected by those very smart guys for their top 50 picks and -0- proof platinum denominations from 2008 are selected.
So, what is going on here? Are 2008 proof platinum coins the "sleepers" of the series or destined to be "second fiddle" to the 2004 proof platinum pieces for years and years to come? And, we see this situation more often than one might think ... where a higher mintage modern (often times in the same series) sells for more than a lower mintage modern ... even though we are comparing "apples to apples" as far as being the same metal, same design, etc.
Thoughts?
Wondercoin
So, what is going on here? Are 2008 proof platinum coins the "sleepers" of the series or destined to be "second fiddle" to the 2004 proof platinum pieces for years and years to come? And, we see this situation more often than one might think ... where a higher mintage modern (often times in the same series) sells for more than a lower mintage modern ... even though we are comparing "apples to apples" as far as being the same metal, same design, etc.
Thoughts?
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
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The main reason (IMO) is that the 2004's are more widely distributed and in stronger hands. Initially more of them were bought by collectors and fewer by speculators, before final mintage totals were known. The year 2008, as many of us recall, was speculator heaven for moderns.
This, in turn, leads to more availability for the 2008's. A glance at eBay shows three 2004 $10 proofs for sale, including one in a set of four denominations. By contrast, there are eight 2008 $10 proofs for sale, including three in sets of four denominations. The higher availability of 2008's leads to lower prices, despite their lower mintage.
A secondary factor is that the 2008 reverse design was shared with the lower mintage burnished plats of that year. The 2004 reverse designs were unique to the proofs, meaning that those looking for design rarity might value the 2004 plats more highly.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
In fact, back in 2005 when I started buying 2004 proof sets strongly, I had not purchased a single 2004 proof platinum coin from the US Mint in 2004. That super low mintage in 2004 caught virtually everyone off guard to be sure. True collectors bought most of those 2004 sets in 2004 I believe. Once 2004 sets stopped being sold by the US Mint and the mintage figures were reported, folks had about a 30 day window to gobble up the small quantities of 2004 coins on the market "dirt cheap". Then it was straight up from there for a long time. I think I paid upwards of $8,500/set (raw) at one point in late 2005/early 2006 to buy 2004 sets (against a much lower platinum spot price than we have today). I guess the sets have "settled in" around $4,500 - $5,000 or so now ... clearly the 2008 super low mintage negatively affected pricing on 2004 sets.
One other thing that may be keeping prices higher on fresh 2004 sets as well ... the PR70DC coins are worth more as they are much harder to slab in my experience than PR70DC 2008 proof platinum.
Wondercoin
Nice thought provoking thread Mitch, kudos.
John
John Maben
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perceived supply/demand.....
yes the 2004 has a higher mintage than 2008....yes the 2008 is theoretically harder to make in 70....so the logical man would say ....2008 = more money/better investment....but b/c the perceived supply and demand issue is in play 2004 demands a higher premium....
ok...lets take this forward to 2012....is a 2012 Plat 70 worth 6Grrrrr???? REALLY??? why??? well right now the perceived demand has placed it in that category.....am i buying it....NOPE.... been there, saw that, not biting....
lets roll back the clock....is a Hockey Puck FSDMPL69 set worth 10Gr??????...well one day it was....remember.....
"The illusion has become real. And the more real it becomes, the more desperately they want it. Capitalism at its finest". (thanks GG for the quote)
And, for that matter, don't forget 25th Anniv silver sets in 70 were worth close to $3,000/set at one point early on as well (and not too long ago)
It's all about timing (and not making the same mistake 2x).
But, JM touched on something in his post as well ....
PROMOTION ... 2008 proof platinum could be promoted in the future as there is enough supply out there to get a promotion underway, while 2004 proof platinum has little supply out there and is a highly unlikely candidate for a promotion. And, a promotion could potentially drive the price of the 2008 proof platinum much higher in the future (assuming one ever took place). So, back to my question ....
Is 2008 proof platinum the "sleeper" set of the entire proof platinum complex, especially when it was passed over in JM's recent book on the most sought after modern issues?
Wondercoin
I have a gray sheet from 1995 that shows the price of 1991 $25 gold eagles lower than 1990 $25 gold eagles. That was not "reasonable" and its not that way today. It was created by the market inventory dissipation cycle. My view is that in time the 2008 platinum issues are going to pull past the 2004 issues not counting condition rarity.
Note to that the 1995 gray sheet was 4 years after sales close and the 1990 and 1991 still had not righted themselves. We are 4 years after the sales close of 2008 and the same is true.
I you were a gold eagle guy in 1995 which of the two $25 gold eagles were the best buy at that time? In the short term the market is fickle. Long term it is a finely tuned weighing machine. A 1991 gold half is expensive.
At the Philly ANA show people would ask me what I thought was currently a good value and one of my common answers was "at todays prices I like the 2008 proof platinum eagle halves and quarters".
Wondercoin
Last sale I just saw on ebay was just over $4,600. That was a fast 25% "drop" since you posted.
Wondercoin
In 2008, the data was much more readily available and I am sure that more people bought extras before the 2008s went dark. I know that I did as well. Since 2008, we've seen the number of collectors in the Plat market slowly dwindle (my opinion). Also, I think we are seeing that surplus of speculative overhang from 2008 still being dispersed. Eventually it will be gone. 2008 is the key year.
I knew it would happen.
Box of 20