***OCTOBER 2012 Gold and Silver Stocks/Options/Futures trading thread***
roadrunner
Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
This is a continuation of the monthly trading thread to discuss the trading of PM-related stocks, options, and futures.
Gold continued to follow the zig zaggy pattern of the past 2-3 weeks. Last night it dropped to the bottom half of the trading range by hitting $1763, one dollar above my target range of $1755-$1762. The last 3 half cycles for gold have been 3 days each. So following the 3 day hit to $1736, a 3 day up cycle made sense. And by hitting just above $1790 this morning, it rallied right on cue. This last 3 day cycle was very similar to last week's Tu-Friday from $1751 to $1787. Now we see if we get another 3 day consolidation as the $1790/$35 lines continue to be strongly defended. I took a modest Nugt position on Friday but got cold feet over the weekend the more I thought about it. The bounce this morning was the perfect time to exit. Then initiated a Dust position since it had just filled the gap down at $22.70 and it didn't seem like there was momentum to get back above $1790. The drop to $1774 was too good to pass up so dumped the Dust. Now looking for things to settle out again. It still makes sense for October to follow a more bullish path into the 15th or so. But it doesn't seem like this latest bounce from $1736 to $1791 was necessarily more than just another higher order B wave bounce. Maybe gold spends the better part of October sitting in this trading range box of $1700-$1800 as it consolidates the rapid +$200 gain since August 14th. The summer move was only +$120 and it consolidated sideways for 5-10 weeks depending on how you measure it. This current one is only 2-3 weeks old. And since that summer pull back was more a flat, it tends to favor this next one being a sharp (ie C leg ending much deeper than B leg). Interesting to note as well that both gold and silver put in expanding wedge patterns over the past 2-3 weeks (ie potential broadening tops). GDX and GDXJ failed to make it back to their earlier highs, though GDX did fill it's higher gap left from last Monday's initial drop. Some FEDspeak this morning boosted gold from $1768 to $1791. How many times can they say QE3 and get a boost out of it? Last month's Fed minutes get published this Thursday. Guess we can expect another bounce when they say the same thing once again. Today's 15 min gold chart looks exactly like the 15 month weekly chart. Very odd coincidence. Suggests that the $1770-$1772 support level is pretty strong.
In looking back over the last 10 Octobers there were 4 down months, 3 up months, and 3 even. But of note is that of the last 6, 5 of those showed a move up into mid month (ie to miners OE week). If 2012 is following the 2006 or 2007 scenarios, October could be primarily an up month. Those were years where things were coming off a long and/or deep consolidation. One analyst mentioned that of the past 25 years or so, 70% of Octobers have been ended lower than they started. While that's true, I also don't see what the seasonals from the bear market in the 1980's and 1990's has to do with the past 10 yrs of a bull market. And with October often being a Jeckyll and Hyde type month, it can easily end lower, though often doing so by making a new high first in mid-month. But I won't rule out a sharp correction taking out that $1736 low sometime later this month. Miners lagging since last Monday, silver having broken below its 6 week uptrend line, dollar continuing to make higher lows, potential broadening top patterns in silver and gold, and a moon change put me on guard right now. Silver first broke below the line on the 23rd. Today was a backtest of that line, though on lower momentum. Gold is still holding above its 6 week uptrend line. But if not for that late August dip to $1646, it would be below trend as well, identical to silver. Depends a lot on how you draw that 6 wk uptrend line.
Gold continued to follow the zig zaggy pattern of the past 2-3 weeks. Last night it dropped to the bottom half of the trading range by hitting $1763, one dollar above my target range of $1755-$1762. The last 3 half cycles for gold have been 3 days each. So following the 3 day hit to $1736, a 3 day up cycle made sense. And by hitting just above $1790 this morning, it rallied right on cue. This last 3 day cycle was very similar to last week's Tu-Friday from $1751 to $1787. Now we see if we get another 3 day consolidation as the $1790/$35 lines continue to be strongly defended. I took a modest Nugt position on Friday but got cold feet over the weekend the more I thought about it. The bounce this morning was the perfect time to exit. Then initiated a Dust position since it had just filled the gap down at $22.70 and it didn't seem like there was momentum to get back above $1790. The drop to $1774 was too good to pass up so dumped the Dust. Now looking for things to settle out again. It still makes sense for October to follow a more bullish path into the 15th or so. But it doesn't seem like this latest bounce from $1736 to $1791 was necessarily more than just another higher order B wave bounce. Maybe gold spends the better part of October sitting in this trading range box of $1700-$1800 as it consolidates the rapid +$200 gain since August 14th. The summer move was only +$120 and it consolidated sideways for 5-10 weeks depending on how you measure it. This current one is only 2-3 weeks old. And since that summer pull back was more a flat, it tends to favor this next one being a sharp (ie C leg ending much deeper than B leg). Interesting to note as well that both gold and silver put in expanding wedge patterns over the past 2-3 weeks (ie potential broadening tops). GDX and GDXJ failed to make it back to their earlier highs, though GDX did fill it's higher gap left from last Monday's initial drop. Some FEDspeak this morning boosted gold from $1768 to $1791. How many times can they say QE3 and get a boost out of it? Last month's Fed minutes get published this Thursday. Guess we can expect another bounce when they say the same thing once again. Today's 15 min gold chart looks exactly like the 15 month weekly chart. Very odd coincidence. Suggests that the $1770-$1772 support level is pretty strong.
In looking back over the last 10 Octobers there were 4 down months, 3 up months, and 3 even. But of note is that of the last 6, 5 of those showed a move up into mid month (ie to miners OE week). If 2012 is following the 2006 or 2007 scenarios, October could be primarily an up month. Those were years where things were coming off a long and/or deep consolidation. One analyst mentioned that of the past 25 years or so, 70% of Octobers have been ended lower than they started. While that's true, I also don't see what the seasonals from the bear market in the 1980's and 1990's has to do with the past 10 yrs of a bull market. And with October often being a Jeckyll and Hyde type month, it can easily end lower, though often doing so by making a new high first in mid-month. But I won't rule out a sharp correction taking out that $1736 low sometime later this month. Miners lagging since last Monday, silver having broken below its 6 week uptrend line, dollar continuing to make higher lows, potential broadening top patterns in silver and gold, and a moon change put me on guard right now. Silver first broke below the line on the 23rd. Today was a backtest of that line, though on lower momentum. Gold is still holding above its 6 week uptrend line. But if not for that late August dip to $1646, it would be below trend as well, identical to silver. Depends a lot on how you draw that 6 wk uptrend line.
0
Comments
"why would a non-voting Fed member go on national TV to talk about his desire to increase the size of QE3 months down the road?"
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>the FED is talking the dollar down in it's latest move to counter the downward sprial of competing currencies. Look for this to strengthen metal prices.
"why would a non-voting Fed member go on national TV to talk about his desire to increase the size of QE3 months down the road?" >>
I feel sick
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
<< <i>the FED is talking the dollar down in it's latest move to counter the downward sprial of competing currencies. Look for this to strengthen metal prices.
"why would a non-voting Fed member go on national TV to talk about his desire to increase the size of QE3 months down the road?" >>
Because he knows QE is useless? He can get same effect by just opening mouth?
I have no opinion on current metals prices. Flip a coin.
The soybean short I alluded to in MJ's econ thread has returned handsomely though.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Linky
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
I was targeting 1800, but I think we spent so much time at $1780 that we'll blow right through $1800. I'm looking at the $1860 for where this next move will stop in the next week or so.
Crickets?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I've got a stock that is $17.80 right now that I think is going to $18.60. Anybody interested?
Crickets? >>
Nugt by any chance? Nugt and Dust seem to dance 3-9% on most days. The low volume ratio of Nugt to Dust (3-4) has made it seem like Dust is getting accumulated...or could
be that the last of the holdouts are starting to bail. The weekly GDX chart shows 3 yr highs in ROC, %B, and CCI. Doesn't seem likely they will reverse and go higher, but you
never know. Today GDX rallied up into the downtrend line and is jammed into a consolidation triangle. The FED minutes today didn't change anything. Maybe the jobs report
tomorrow will. The dollar broke below the key support line of 79.33 briefly but then regained it. It needs to get back above 79.6 to nullify the past week's H&S neckline breakdown.
Next step is in the 78's if that neckline is not retaken. Euro similarly bounced off the 61% fib retrace at 1.303. Dow at just under 13,600 support. Silver and gold still capped around
$1790 and $35. The current action seems like a stalemate though I'd tip it in favor of the bulls with how the dollar is behaving. The dollar hasn't broken down hard yet, but it's close.
GDX weekly chart
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Oy vey!!!
This goes back to the thread you started a week again about seeing what you want to see in the charts.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Notice key words such as "looks as though," "could be," "started to," "testing key resistance," and "started a correction."
His four hour charts are four hour time frames covering a much longer period.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
VXX Reverse Split Won’t Halt the Grind Lower
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
<< <i>He is taking a 4-hour chart and extrapolating the data into a weekly prognostication?
Oy vey!!!
This goes back to the thread you started a week again about seeing what you want to see in the charts. >>
I'd only add that they still would convey the same info if put into daily format...possibly weekly format as well.
Dollar did bust a recent H&S necklne. So it's on the ropes for now until it can better 79.6. Author indicates that
oil is for gamblers. Judging on this past week's action for gold and silver, I'd say they are for gamblers as well.
Just as likely that they could correct for another 3 weeks as break out above $1800/$35.50. If I had to pick between
oil and gold/silver, I'd probably go with oil following it's recent bounce off $87.71 showing some pos diverg on the 4 & 8 hr charts.
Gold and silver showing just the opposite. Why should oil be down this much with tensions high in the ME and QE3 on the table? Is this
a PPT/big bank election gambit to keep the price down until Nov. 6th?
<< <i>ya gotta read the words that go with the charts.
Notice key words such as "looks as though," "could be," "started to," "testing key resistance," and "started a correction."
His four hour charts are four hour time frames covering a much longer period. >>
Like I said. Gotta believe it to see it.
Nice guess on NUGT, roadrunner, almost nailed it exactly. But I was referring to gold where I just moved the decimal point to the left by 2 places. My point was to express a rather less than emphatic "WOW" to an $80 move in gold.
True that gold has moved $250 over the last few months, but many, many stocks have had much greater returns even the EVIL Goldman Sachs. GOOG has moved over $200.
Be wary the risk asset trade. And PMs ARE risk assets. Lots of rising wedge patterns out there. And MJs retail trade may be VERY TIMELY.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>anyone notice the VXX 4-1 reverse split on Tuesday?
VXX Reverse Split Won’t Halt the Grind Lower >>
Several ETfs reverse split today. TBT and BIS
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> Nice guess on NUGT, roadrunner, almost nailed it exactly. But I was referring to gold where I just moved the decimal point to the left by 2 places. My point was to express a rather less than emphatic "WOW" to an $80 move in gold.
True that gold has moved $250 over the last few months, but many, many stocks have had much greater returns even the EVIL Goldman Sachs. GOOG has moved over $200.
Be wary the risk asset trade. And PMs ARE risk assets. Lots of rising wedge patterns out there. And MJs retail trade may be VERY TIMELY. >>
While I guessed NUGT, it's been DUST that I've been trying to find a entry point for. It just seems that at some point in the next 1-2 weeks this rally will be in a sharper corrective mode.
Gold moves like a lumbering bohemoth. It's steady and strong at times, but the moves pale next to leveraged ETF's, miners, and stocks in general. If gold makes a solid move of
5% then you can usually expect GDX to be up 10-12% and GDXJ up 12-15%. Other companies in the commodity/industrial sectors will probably have similar returns as well. I don't
expect gold to make an $80 move to the mid-$1800's. And if it does, it will probably be right back here or lower by the end of the month. We talk about gold not so much that its
percentage gains are great, but that its gains will be reflected in much higher leveraged gains throughout the "risk trade" sector. So from that view, +$80 gold is a big deal since it will
often result in a 10-15% gain in other areas....like miners (same comment for -$80 gold). I don't trade GLD or SLV. Petch's view below using BB and longer term Stoch analysis is interesting.
Petch's 6-8 month view of gold and HUI based on weekly full stochs and Bollinger Band analysis
lousy fiat
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
short to long gold ratio to >2.9-1, a high for at least the past year or so. Nugt to Dust volume ratio has been in the 2-3 range the past several sessions which
is extremely low levels for this pair. Normally that ratio is in the 5-12 range. It suggests a lot of Dust accumulation has been occurring as of late. The dollar did
indeed bounce back above the H&S neckline breakdown (ie head fake) to retake the 80 level briefly. I see it's now up to 80.22 as I type. Gap sitting down at 79.33
suggests it isn't going to stray too far in the next couple of weeks. Yesterday's 3 yr TNote auction was strong with a nearly 4-1 bid to cover. Today's 10 yr was strong
as well at 3.26. Tomorrow is the 30 yr TBond auction. As usual, these auctions provided some headwinds for PMs. Next week is options expiration for GLD, SLV, GDX, etc.
Then the week following is a triple threat end of month OE week with TNote auctions and an FOMC meeting (24th). Back to back weeks should provide more resistance than
this week did. Gold's low today bounced it off the 4 week, upward, parallel consolidation channel. Over the past 2 months gold has been putting in dip lows on a 9-10 day
cycle. We'll see if we get a 3-6 day bounce here as has been the case for the past several weeks. The last 2 cycles have been 6 days up and 3-4 days down.
<< <i>RR, do you recall or do you have any data about how well the commercials did or did not predict the last few big runs in gold? >>
Generally, low levels in the commercials gold futures short to long ratio as well as low levels of open interest have been good predictors or confirmers of imminent rallies.
That worked very well in the late 2008 to spring 2011 rally where the ratio tended to stretch from 1.7 to 4.6. This thumbrule worked fairly well in late Dec 2010 to Jan
early Jan 2011 when the ratio dropped to 1.7 or so as I recall. But during the April - May 2012 crush down in miners, the ratio just kept tanking. I think it bottomed
out in the 1.5's that time. If one can hang on through the bottoming process ratios under 1.9 tend to buying opportunities. And ratios today up in the 2.5 - 2.8 range tend to
suggest peaking. During the last run up in gold into late Feb 2012, I think the ratio declined from 2.8 for a few weeks before the top was in. The correlation is certainly not
perfect, but it's a pretty decent tracking/confirmation tool. Goldseek.com offers a nice summary of the gold, silver, and dollar COT each Friday afternoon. At the bottom
of the page is a link to 3 yrs of historical weekly COT tables. It's pretty easy to call up any particular week close to a gold bottom or low to see how the ratio and OI were doing.
The peaks or troughs in the COT data tend to lead the gold price by 1-3 weeks. In years past the ratio peaked as high as 4.6 but we haven't seen those massive short levels
in several years now. It's basically been living under 3.0 in recent times. Though if this rally keeps motoring into late November or early December it could get back to 3.5 again.
GLD filled the 1st lower gap today at $170. Unfortunately, there's 4 others right below that at 167, 166, 164, and 157. Don't mean to imply they all get filled in October but one, two, or three of them might. The 4 week expanding wedge does engulf the GLD $164 gap ($1700ish) by end of month. That's also where the Ichimoku cloud daily resistance is at over the next 1-2 weeks ($1680-$1720). New moon on Monday. Next week are GLD, SLV and GDX options expiration. Seems like they got a head start today. And if next week keeps the pressure on, the week right after it is another TNote auction week, FOMC meeting, and usual end of month expected "games."
BPGDM has been in bear mode all week with price <8 dma. RSI and W%R had been maxed out for about 2 months, about as long as any miner rallies can last. The Renko chart below shows the recent turn of the saw tooth pattern. I'm expecting GDX and GDXJ to fill their "neckline" breakout gaps at 48 and 22. GSR in an ascending triangle pattern since start of Sept. Today's move was stopped at the very top of the triangle. Funny how this GSR move picked up steam just as the 50/200 dma "death" cross occured. Happens a lot like that. That big gap at 53-54 is a high profile potential.
bpgdm renko chart
<< <i>Meant to post tonight that gold is ready for its next big move tonight or Thursday, but it's already taking off. Resistance levels are 1785.7, ~1790, and 1801.5.
I was targeting 1800, but I think we spent so much time at $1780 that we'll blow right through $1800. I'm looking at the $1860 for where this next move will stop in the next week or so. >>
Opps. Thats ok maybe next Thursday.
Just bustin' chops.
Gold and silver both look to be consolidating the summer moves up. Nothing to trade until there is a significant move out of the consolidation.
The DOW closed right at price, moving average and uptrend channel support. Probably up 100 at the open on Monday.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Oh boy, did someone just "ring the bell"? >>
I hear you. So when silver fell from $50 to $3 back in the 1980's and then from $21 to $9 in 2008, and more recently from $50 to $26 in 2011, those were somewhat riskless enterprises
for those that bought near the tops? Even the relatively safe and sedate HUI managed to fall from around 515 to 151 during 2008. There's a lot more at risk than penny stocks,
options/futures, and leveraged ETF's. I do understand the concept of gold having no counterparty risk though.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Opps. Thats ok maybe next Thursday.
Guess I deserve that.
If the bullish case is to remain intact, we are looking at 3 possible targets for this retracement: $1756, $1738, and $1720ish. I think these moves were necessary to instill some bearishness into the gold and to put a couple of much-needed red candles into the string of green weekly candles.
Edited to add:
After doing some more studying, it actually looks like the lower target at $1717-1725 is going to be what we get and see later this week. This will be a prime opp to buy.
Also, McLellan has identified a market relationship that makes it appear that copper may be about to surge in the next few months.
There's also an area of breakouts, support, and resistance replete with gaps in the $1685-$1705 range going back to August 2011. Gold's first big dip off the first shot at $1900 was to
$1702. That area holds special significance. That's why I think we might see the $1697 (164 GLD gap) level tagged as well. Even the 50 dma is around the 165-166 level ($1707).
There are nearly 2 full weeks to potentially move gold down through the end of the month. Thursday the 25th is when the "event" headwinds dissipate. Worst case might be
eventually filling the gap at GLD 157 which would equate to a full restest of the 1 year consolidation triangle breakout. That's a big gap down there at 157. That's also close to the
apex of that 17 month symmetric triangle.
The 164 target in GLD is roughly equivalent to silver at $31.50 and GDX hitting 48 (HUI 460-470). I think GDX at 48 is a high probability target this week. And if not this week,
then by the week after next. That level would be a retest of the key support/resistance level of the past 2 years. It broke under it in April and back above it in August.
reasonable 5 following the 10 am London close whacking. 48 in GDX is a little bit closer now. The 2 week gold fan line anchored back to 9/29 was predicting support
this morning at $1740-$1745. But it blew right through it. With 2 weak bounces last night back to $1749 it didn't likely that gold was going to revisit $1750 early this
week. Now looking at resistance at $1740. Silver once again held at the key level of $32.50 which was important support and resistance in early September during the rise.
Stupid technical analysis. Doesnt work. Voodoo. Only see what you wanna see. LOL
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The DOW closed right at price, moving average and uptrend channel support. Probably up 100 at the open on Monday.
Stupid technical analysis. Doesnt work. Voodoo. Only see what you wanna see. LOL
It was up <40 at the open, then gave it all back within an hour. So not up 100 at the open. Couple of head fakes first.
But I will give you that it made the 100 up during the day.
Jumped off the dusty trail during the usual 10 am smackdown a gold hit the lower $1730's. Miners actually took the jolt pretty good. Seeing some capitulation in some of the juniors.
Nibbled on some of my favorites that have already filled their early Sept gaps.
SLV with a 38% retrace of the Aug/Sept run so maybe selling over for now.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Yeah, the miners are getting more interesting, but could easily fail. Not good risk/reward right now.
SLV with a 38% retrace of the Aug/Sept run so maybe selling over for now. >>
Pretty good risk reward during an OE week where beat downs are somewhat expected. Dust did a 6 day gain of 23% or it could have been broken up into three 1 day plays of 10-13% each. The Nugt reaction from yesterday's drop to $1728 was good for 10% in 24 hrs.
Dollar gap from 7 days ago at 79.33 finally got filled. Over those same 7 days the Euro has put in a nice bowl pattern that sort of begs for a handle now. The dollar's 79.33 area is a major support area right now. Dollar looks to have done a 4 pt parallel channel to tag this gap. There are some fan lines intersecting here as well as it being the apex of a much larger triangle. Gold seems to be on last double zig-zag leg from $1729-$1752? The miners showed a quick bounce this morning and the 6-1 to 7-1 Nugt to Dust volume ratio showed that quick buying and profit taking. Dust has fallen back to the bottom of the uptrend channel at $25. The volume ratio is back down to 3.1 suggesting more buying of Dust here after its gap down. GDXJ bounced to cover its gap from yesterday. GDX moved up to tag that important 1yr 52.5-53.0 resistance/gap area yet again. Would think GDX would have one more move down to match the symmetry in the chart from Jan-February 2012. But I also see another bounce higher in GDX Wed morning. A number of the better/leading miners showing strong reversals today. Might be a sign that OE effects are starting to come off. Miners be the 1st out of the gate as they were the first to get hit.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I have mentioned watching the Yen on numerous occasions. Japanese equities could benefit handsomely.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
That opens up the entire area of 75-76 or at least 78.6. Longer term dollar stochs are terrible looking. Starting to look like miners OE "smackdown" week is
about over. There still might be another piggy back correction along with gold next Mon-Wed.
I love this kind of analysis. So many "what if"s. Good stuff.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Either that, or the HFT's are whipsawing volume around like crazy. Why didn't they pick NUGT instead?
I think it's just another manifestation of the current 3-1 short to long commercial position in gold.
Miners may not currrently be interesting but this positioning suggests interest will ramp up very soon.
I checked the other bear ETF's and only ZSL has a similar look to it, though nowhere near as pronounced as DUST.
The NUGT to DUST volume ratio continues to stay in the 3's most of the day. During this morning's rally it briefly was up in the
5's and 6's but was eventually averaged all the way back down to 3.6. Did the same thing yesterday, up in the 5's then back to 3.1 by end of day.
HFT's must be playing those bounces while others are accumulating Dust.
Dollar is toying with the 1 yr 78.6 neckline. If that breaks, look out below. But something tells me that the dollar is going to bounce
soon (pos divergences in 1 hr chart) and that should be the end of this gold B wave bounce off of $1728. Still thinking that $1688-$1710
is a logical bottoming area for this intermediate cycle low. Should be a good entry into Dust towards the end of this week or by Monday....maybe today.
Dust buster?
Because real money always trades the short side. And volume begets volume. The more volume a security trades, the more liquid it becomes. The more liquid, the more volume, and round and round she goes.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
$1738 was right on time. Could have just as easily been a bump to $1766 with an intriguing IH&S brewing on the 10 min chart. But the odds seemed to favor
lower based on the approaching end of the month plus the NY boyz were very intent on capping gold at $1753 yesterday. Exited Dust this morning on the opening pop.
Probably should have rolled right into Nugt at that point figuring on the usual bounce. But with next week's shenanigans coming fast, I'd rather not be caught in the next slide.
Still plan on reloading longs by sometime next week if the Nov/Dec run still looks viable. Yesterday's $1744-$1747 support zone for gold is now resistance. Let's see if the
NYers will let gold sniff at $1750 again. Nice ABC from last evening with the C leg being an impulsive 5 waves. Should do it for today's dip. GDX and Dust both traversed to the
opposite sides of their 3 day trend channels.
Update for end of day: nice rally from Dust right into the close gaining 10% over yesterday. Got out too early today. Who knew while gold bounced higher from the $1738 low that
miners and stocks would continue to get hammered today? Thanks Goog! Another "boring" day for the miners. Dollar pulled back to fill a gap at 79.08 then it was
off the races to 79.40. Next gap is quite a bit higher at 79.75. Seems like a lot for right now. GDX filled its lower gap at 51.63 giving a sort of nice IH&S pattern. Today's hit was
certainly in line with end of OE week weakness as there hadn't been a good hit since last Friday. Closing at the day's low wasn't very bullish. Everything is pointing to more weakness
into next week...which is probably why GDX will probably bounce Friday or Monday. Next week should be interesting with FOMC meeting. Always good for a jolt.
Uncanny resemblance between the June-July GDX correction and the current one...it's July 5th...after today's action maybe it was July 6th!
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>if you think the FED can rescue the mortgage industry take a look at the new ETF MORL. >>
Leverage is a double edged sword. ETF's and ETN's that reset are usually very bad for investors. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i>if you think the FED can rescue the mortgage industry take a look at the new ETF MORL. >>
Leverage is a double edged sword. ETF's and ETN's that reset are usually very bad for investors. MJ >>
but they can sure make money for those that properly use them.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
That chart looks very precise. Looks like the quants got 'hold of it.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>if you think the FED can rescue the mortgage industry take a look at the new ETF MORL. >>
Leverage is a double edged sword. ETF's and ETN's that reset are usually very bad for investors. MJ >>
but they can sure make money for those that properly use them. >>
I would just rather put double the money in the trade. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Wow, GOOG pooped the bed. MJ >>
My favorite stock is rather weak tonight also.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Wow, GOOG pooped the bed. MJ >>
My favorite stock is rather weak tonight also.
Been buying US banks. I was hoping for a pullback today with the washout to add some more. Did not happen.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Knowledge is the enemy of fear