PCGS prices as indicator

coinaesthetics

As I have over 100 coins in a PCGS Set Registry, I regularly track changes in the Current Value assigned (which reflects, I've assumed, mostly recent auctions). Of course, these CVs are retail prices, mostly too high. So in estimating true market value, I back out ten percent of the CV total, which might be too little discounting for the more common, lower-value coins, maybe too much discounting for some of the better high-end coins, say, over $7,500. But, as I have 15 - 20 coins in the latter category and most are strong even for the grade, I think the sum comes close to overall market value. (I've noticed that some specially nice and tough coins go above CV prices, even HAMMER above.) I'd like your opinion: Is my valuation using PCGS prices realistic or optimistic? Also, I've seen a general decline in CVs in recent months -- mostly in lower-value coins, not surprisingly. Do you think this reflects a slightly weak or bearish market now, mainly at the lower end? More broadly, does this valuation method do what some naive coin folk do: give too much weight to the big-dog GS? (PS: For NGC and ANACS coins, I just average out archives of similar-for-the-grade-seeming coins, taking care to back out BPs.)

RedTiger

Overall, 10% back of PCGS guide might be okay for insuring the collection. If a collector is looking to sell and solicits dealer offers, 40% back of PCGS guide or lower is a more realistic ballpark. So it depends on what number you want, a likely wholesale value if the coins needed to be sold quickly, or a likely replacement value for insuring the collection, or something in between.

If thinking about selling, a collector that takes the significant time and energy to sell at retail will get more than the typical wholesale offers. Another possible route for a seller is to consign the collection and pay the consignment fees and/or auction fees. As always the disclaimer is that PCGS guide prices tend to be on the high side, and it is just a guide. Real world prices can be all over the place. If you bought the coins, you know what you paid for them. If you bought them at retail venues (dealers and auctions), I suggest subtracting 20% of purchase price to get an estimated wholesale number. It might be more than 20% on some common items, especially if raw, possibly less on high value easy to sell coins. Then there are market fluctuations over time to take into account. Other sources such as auction prices realized, dealer offers to buy and coins offered for sale will also give indications as to real world prices. To get a net number for liquidating a collection, subtract out estimated fees and shipping.

Steve27

It really depends on the type of coins and the POPs. But the best way to tell what they're worth is to look at recent auction sales at ebay, Heritage, Teletrade, etc.

illini420

Totally depends on the coin. There are many coins right now where I'd pay double the PCGS Price Guide price! There are also many coins where I wouldn't even pay 50% of the PCGS Price Guide. Remember it's only one of many guides to consider in attempting to value your coins.

LindeDad

Simple fact is if you bought the coins at or very near the price guide then the data is probably true and useful in your case.
If you bought the coin for 20% of the price guide then it is not very likely the price guide is correct.
But one has to keep in mind the changes in precious metal coins base or melt value.
Also what one gets at sale depends greatly on the effort input into the sale and who the buyer is.

coinaesthetics

Thanks for your thoughtful reply, RedTiger. I've been valuing based on very long-term plans with no current plan to sell, but appreciate all your observations and insights on selling conditions. If your warning about dealers offering an extreme lowball of 40% of PCGS is valid, well, I guess I'll have to stay away from dealers, but I recognize the gap between the way buyers value coins and the sometimes-predatory perspectives of some sellers.

coinaesthetics

Good, commonsensical observations, LindeDad. I have bought a few coins -- fairly big ones -- well below the Guide, and did discount them appropriately, so I'm with you there.

derryb

price guide is generally optimistic. There are individual exceptions.