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Market Report: 2012-S Proof Silver Eagle 75th Anniversary PCGS PR70 First Strike Set
goldmart
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Market Report: 2012-S Proof Silver Eagle 75th Anniversary PCGS PR70 First Strike Set
The 2012-S Proof Silver Eagle 75th Anniversary PCGS PR70 First Strike Set has, for the most part, flown under the radar among the general collector base, and could result in remorse buying later on.
The PCGS PR70 First Strike 75th Anniversary set is a product that many sophisticated investment-minded collectors may have overlooked and should still strongly consider, even at current market prices.
In this article, we are going to present the insider-type prominent dealer trading network information we are aware of, analyze technical and fundamental market data, and project a future outlook for the PCGS PR70 First Strike 2012-S 75th Anniversary set.
2012-S 75th Anniversary Set History:
I, and other other dealers monitoring the 75th Anniversary Set, were shocked at the number of dealers and large wholesalers (who typically deal in modern issues and PCGS modern issues) who failed to "do" the 75th Anniversary Set because of the Mint’s unlimited offering during its one-month sales window.
In our opinion, the sales system the U.S. Mint implemented set the tone and unintentionally set up the collector-base majority for the classic “not interested now” but remorseful—"I wish I bought when I had a chance"—buying scenario later. Not only did many of the top dealers fail to participate, but much of the general collecting public didn't buy-in either.
We believe that remorse-buying market psychology will play a big role in the future, and we are anticipating that the average collector who hasn't bought in—even at todays prices—will regret the fact, chase the market, and eventually purchase sets in the future . . . possibly at higher market prices.
PR70 First Strike History:
Speaking of psychology, another major factor that played a role in the shortage of PCGS PR70 First Strike Sets was that initially the PCGS Population Report rumored to have a very low grade-through rate for PR70 First Strike sets.
I know, first hand, that when dealers heard of the initial grading results, many of them—as well as some of the collector base submitters— were intimidated by the prospect of having their coins graded by PCGS, and instead opted for sending their sets to a different TPG, which initially had a much higher rumored PF70 grade-through rate.
Market Facts and Data:
Are fresh, Sealed-Box PCGS First Strike eligible sets obsolete?
Over the last couple of weeks there has been an absence of PCGS First Strike eligible sealed-boxed sets offered on the prominent dealer trading network among dealers.
In fact, I have seen ZERO sealed-box First Strike eligible sets offered for sale on a prominent dealer trading network.
I have also noticed an absence of fresh unsealed sets, the strongest indicator to me, that dealers simply don’t have any available.
Here’s a case in point: One prominent dealer on the trading network was short and only needed 100 fresh sets to fulfill a small order (he didn’t need First Strike eligible or sealed sets—they just had to be fresh). This dealer ran a buy message over 6 consecutive days offering to buy up to 100 fresh sets at $185 per set, with no success. The dealer ended up raising his bid to $200, upon which we filled his order because he is a friend.
I had been watching his buy message intently, and neither I nor the dealer could believe how long it took to fill his 100-set order, even at such a generous buy price.
It appears that dealers don't have sealed, First Strike eligible sets available. We assume they have all dried up!
Major Modern Coin Retailers don't have sets for sale!
Another surprise is that two of the largest online modern coin dealers don’t have any PCGS PR70 First Strike sets available for sale. In fact, one major modern coin dealer that we very much respect completely pulled its PCGS PR70 First Strike Sets from their website after the first week of grading, and have not brought them back.
The other major modern coin dealer appears to have sold a bunch of sets at a very low price, and then sold a second group—again at considerably less than fair market price. This dealer has been sold out for about 3 weeks—while continuing to advertise an outdated price.
Current Market Conditions and Comments:
eBay
The current market status of PCGS PR70 First Strike 75th Anniversary sets on eBay appears to be moderate. The market has not yet been flooded with buyers, but those that are buying are paying strong prices— in the range of $439 per set; at the same time, there appears to be a definite shortage of sellers, roughly 4-5 dealers who are consistently offering PR70 First Strike sets. The average number of sets listed on eBay is appears to be roughly 20 listings at any one time.
Major Online Retail Dealers
As for the online retail market, the major dealer we mentioned previously—and who we highly respect—has removed PCGS PR70 First Strike Sets from their site completely, while the other major retail dealer is still sold out.
Currently there appear to be only 3 online coin dealers who are currently offering sets for sale: a very respectable online modern coin dealer in Utah; a very respectable online auction company in California; and a third website. (There might be a few other dealers that have sets for sale, of which I am not aware; no offense to those dealers, but I just have been too busy to look at everyone's websites)
PCGS Population Report
At the release of this article the most current PCGS Population Report from September 9, 2012 indicates only 3,454 possible PR70 First Strike Sets. In this past week there have only been 210 PR70 First Strike sets added to last weeks population report of 3,244 sets; a far less amount of sets added than I initially had project .
We also predict that a few hundred more sets will be added over the following weeks and predict a soft total estimate around 3,800 PR70 First Strike sets graded by October 1st.
Sealed-Box First Strike Eligible Sets
These sets in quantity appear to be obsolete! We have been running buys during the past week, and have only been able to purchase a handful of sets here and there.
Currently, there is one dealer on the prominent dealer trading network attempting to buy sealed-box First Strike eligible sets at $190 of which I think it is unlikely that they will be able to buy sets in large quantities from other dealers because I simply don't believe that dealers are holding sealed-box First Strike eligible sets in any significant quantities.
Current Dealer Positions
Where are all the PR70 First Strike sets?
Of the 3,454 possible PR70 First Strike sets, only a relatively small number are being held by a handful dealers.
Besides our position, there are only a few other positions of quantity that we are aware of among dealers: two who have positions of approximately 150 sets each, and two others who have positions of approximately 100 sets each.
Other than these, the PR70 First Strike sets appear widely dispersed among a small fraction of the general collector base who recognize value.
Numbers by Comparison
Considering our estimated population of PCGS PR70 First Strike 75th Anniversary Set to be approximately 3,800 sets by October 1st, when compared to the approximate 7,800 PCGS "70" First Strike 25th Anniversary Set, the 75th Anniversary set looks very attractive, having less than a 1:2 set ratio.
Our Projected Outlook:
Extremely bullish.
Given all the info we have obtained, the availability of PCGS PR70 First Strike Sets appears to be drying up fast. The relatively obscure number of sets—scattered among a handful of dealers—does not seem to be adequate to satisfy the future demand we are predicting after the general collector base realizes they missed out on a very rare First Strike 70 set.
We anticipate a supply problem, going forward, for PCGS PR70 First Strike Set. And with the U.S. Mint beginning its second wave of shipping 75th Anniversary sets (which will be Non-First Strike material) toward the end of September, we expect the growing demand for First Strike sets to only increase because PCGS First Strike Sets are what the collectors are going to want!
Open Disclosure:
The preceding Market Report contains only the opinion of the authors, and does not constitute any advice, recommendation, or guarantee regarding any investment or future price.
Both Goldmart.com, and Nick VanderLaan, the author of this Market Report, have a vested interest in PCGS PR70 First Strike 75th Anniversary Sets. All information provided is factual, and contains no misrepresentations to the best of our knowledge.
Goldmart.com is a dba of Legacy Precious Metals Inc., a featured PCGS Authorized Dealer
The 2012-S Proof Silver Eagle 75th Anniversary PCGS PR70 First Strike Set has, for the most part, flown under the radar among the general collector base, and could result in remorse buying later on.
The PCGS PR70 First Strike 75th Anniversary set is a product that many sophisticated investment-minded collectors may have overlooked and should still strongly consider, even at current market prices.
In this article, we are going to present the insider-type prominent dealer trading network information we are aware of, analyze technical and fundamental market data, and project a future outlook for the PCGS PR70 First Strike 2012-S 75th Anniversary set.
2012-S 75th Anniversary Set History:
I, and other other dealers monitoring the 75th Anniversary Set, were shocked at the number of dealers and large wholesalers (who typically deal in modern issues and PCGS modern issues) who failed to "do" the 75th Anniversary Set because of the Mint’s unlimited offering during its one-month sales window.
In our opinion, the sales system the U.S. Mint implemented set the tone and unintentionally set up the collector-base majority for the classic “not interested now” but remorseful—"I wish I bought when I had a chance"—buying scenario later. Not only did many of the top dealers fail to participate, but much of the general collecting public didn't buy-in either.
We believe that remorse-buying market psychology will play a big role in the future, and we are anticipating that the average collector who hasn't bought in—even at todays prices—will regret the fact, chase the market, and eventually purchase sets in the future . . . possibly at higher market prices.
PR70 First Strike History:
Speaking of psychology, another major factor that played a role in the shortage of PCGS PR70 First Strike Sets was that initially the PCGS Population Report rumored to have a very low grade-through rate for PR70 First Strike sets.
I know, first hand, that when dealers heard of the initial grading results, many of them—as well as some of the collector base submitters— were intimidated by the prospect of having their coins graded by PCGS, and instead opted for sending their sets to a different TPG, which initially had a much higher rumored PF70 grade-through rate.
Market Facts and Data:
Are fresh, Sealed-Box PCGS First Strike eligible sets obsolete?
Over the last couple of weeks there has been an absence of PCGS First Strike eligible sealed-boxed sets offered on the prominent dealer trading network among dealers.
In fact, I have seen ZERO sealed-box First Strike eligible sets offered for sale on a prominent dealer trading network.
I have also noticed an absence of fresh unsealed sets, the strongest indicator to me, that dealers simply don’t have any available.
Here’s a case in point: One prominent dealer on the trading network was short and only needed 100 fresh sets to fulfill a small order (he didn’t need First Strike eligible or sealed sets—they just had to be fresh). This dealer ran a buy message over 6 consecutive days offering to buy up to 100 fresh sets at $185 per set, with no success. The dealer ended up raising his bid to $200, upon which we filled his order because he is a friend.
I had been watching his buy message intently, and neither I nor the dealer could believe how long it took to fill his 100-set order, even at such a generous buy price.
It appears that dealers don't have sealed, First Strike eligible sets available. We assume they have all dried up!
Major Modern Coin Retailers don't have sets for sale!
Another surprise is that two of the largest online modern coin dealers don’t have any PCGS PR70 First Strike sets available for sale. In fact, one major modern coin dealer that we very much respect completely pulled its PCGS PR70 First Strike Sets from their website after the first week of grading, and have not brought them back.
The other major modern coin dealer appears to have sold a bunch of sets at a very low price, and then sold a second group—again at considerably less than fair market price. This dealer has been sold out for about 3 weeks—while continuing to advertise an outdated price.
Current Market Conditions and Comments:
eBay
The current market status of PCGS PR70 First Strike 75th Anniversary sets on eBay appears to be moderate. The market has not yet been flooded with buyers, but those that are buying are paying strong prices— in the range of $439 per set; at the same time, there appears to be a definite shortage of sellers, roughly 4-5 dealers who are consistently offering PR70 First Strike sets. The average number of sets listed on eBay is appears to be roughly 20 listings at any one time.
Major Online Retail Dealers
As for the online retail market, the major dealer we mentioned previously—and who we highly respect—has removed PCGS PR70 First Strike Sets from their site completely, while the other major retail dealer is still sold out.
Currently there appear to be only 3 online coin dealers who are currently offering sets for sale: a very respectable online modern coin dealer in Utah; a very respectable online auction company in California; and a third website. (There might be a few other dealers that have sets for sale, of which I am not aware; no offense to those dealers, but I just have been too busy to look at everyone's websites)
PCGS Population Report
At the release of this article the most current PCGS Population Report from September 9, 2012 indicates only 3,454 possible PR70 First Strike Sets. In this past week there have only been 210 PR70 First Strike sets added to last weeks population report of 3,244 sets; a far less amount of sets added than I initially had project .
We also predict that a few hundred more sets will be added over the following weeks and predict a soft total estimate around 3,800 PR70 First Strike sets graded by October 1st.
Sealed-Box First Strike Eligible Sets
These sets in quantity appear to be obsolete! We have been running buys during the past week, and have only been able to purchase a handful of sets here and there.
Currently, there is one dealer on the prominent dealer trading network attempting to buy sealed-box First Strike eligible sets at $190 of which I think it is unlikely that they will be able to buy sets in large quantities from other dealers because I simply don't believe that dealers are holding sealed-box First Strike eligible sets in any significant quantities.
Current Dealer Positions
Where are all the PR70 First Strike sets?
Of the 3,454 possible PR70 First Strike sets, only a relatively small number are being held by a handful dealers.
Besides our position, there are only a few other positions of quantity that we are aware of among dealers: two who have positions of approximately 150 sets each, and two others who have positions of approximately 100 sets each.
Other than these, the PR70 First Strike sets appear widely dispersed among a small fraction of the general collector base who recognize value.
Numbers by Comparison
Considering our estimated population of PCGS PR70 First Strike 75th Anniversary Set to be approximately 3,800 sets by October 1st, when compared to the approximate 7,800 PCGS "70" First Strike 25th Anniversary Set, the 75th Anniversary set looks very attractive, having less than a 1:2 set ratio.
Our Projected Outlook:
Extremely bullish.
Given all the info we have obtained, the availability of PCGS PR70 First Strike Sets appears to be drying up fast. The relatively obscure number of sets—scattered among a handful of dealers—does not seem to be adequate to satisfy the future demand we are predicting after the general collector base realizes they missed out on a very rare First Strike 70 set.
We anticipate a supply problem, going forward, for PCGS PR70 First Strike Set. And with the U.S. Mint beginning its second wave of shipping 75th Anniversary sets (which will be Non-First Strike material) toward the end of September, we expect the growing demand for First Strike sets to only increase because PCGS First Strike Sets are what the collectors are going to want!
Open Disclosure:
The preceding Market Report contains only the opinion of the authors, and does not constitute any advice, recommendation, or guarantee regarding any investment or future price.
Both Goldmart.com, and Nick VanderLaan, the author of this Market Report, have a vested interest in PCGS PR70 First Strike 75th Anniversary Sets. All information provided is factual, and contains no misrepresentations to the best of our knowledge.
Goldmart.com is a dba of Legacy Precious Metals Inc., a featured PCGS Authorized Dealer
0
Comments
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
<< <i>PCGS First Strike Sets are what the collectors are going to want! >>
I think there are a lot of collectors that just want the coins and the set. That's it.
World Collection
British Collection
German States Collection
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
I knew it would happen.
We may not all agree on it, but it is what it is.
That said, well written, dont think it's a promo, it's factual. Very low grade thru rate of 70's at BOTH services. Yes BOTH services.
I had many 25th Anniversary sets sent thru across the street and in sealed boxes of five - managed to grade thru at around 75%. Good luck with these. 25% if you are lucky.
Add to that the issue with the USM staggered ship dates, many sets aren't even eligible for ER/FS.
<< <i>
<< <i>
Both Goldmart.com, and Nick VanderLaan,
Goldmart.com is a dba of Legacy Precious Metals Inc., and are a featured PCGS Authorized Dealer
If you are an investment-minded modern coin collector and would like to consult with me (Nick) regarding your modern-coin investment portfolio, I can be contacted through our website. >>
Ax the above and it wouldn't look like spam >>
I agree.
Prices do seem to be creeping up on Ebay.
I welcome Nick just as much as anyone. But, there is already enough distain out there for ultra modern coins and the rules are the rules ... no spam. Albeit on Post 1 or Post 10,000.
I believe the proper method to getting a piece like this out to a larger audience (such as this message board) is to post it on one's own website (for example) and if collectors find it interesting, it will find its way here... right?
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
<< <i>"Both Goldmart.com, and Nick VanderLaan, the author of this Market Report, have a vested interest in PCGS PR70 First Strike 75th Anniversary Sets."
I welcome Nick just as much as anyone. But, there is already enough distain out there for ultra modern coins and the rules are the rules ... no spam. Albeit on Post 1 or Post 10,000.
I believe the proper method to getting a piece like this out to a larger audience (such as this message board) is to post it on one's own website (for example) and if collectors find it interesting, it will find its way here... right?
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin >>
<< <i>This Market Report is strictly for informational purposes only. Sorry about not using proper forum etiquette; this was our first post, advise taken and acted upon. >>
Ok. Thank you for your response and an interesting report.
<< <i>"Both Goldmart.com, and Nick VanderLaan, the author of this Market Report, have a vested interest in PCGS PR70 First Strike 75th Anniversary Sets." I welcome Nick just as much as anyone. But, there is already enough distain out there for ultra modern coins and the rules are the rules ... no spam. Albeit on Post 1 or Post 10,000. I believe the proper method to getting a piece like this out to a larger audience (such as this message board) is to post it on one's own website (for example) and if collectors find it interesting, it will find its way here... right? >>
What rule is being broken???? I took the liberty of copying and pasting the rules of the forum as provided by Don Willis. I think the OP did his research on the recent PCGS coin related matter and chose to share it with the PCGS audience at large. I personally thought it was insightful and well thought out, but fail to see where this fits the category of Spam. Maybe I am wrong here but if I am please highlight which rule was broken and please explain. Thanks!!
Rule 1) This is not a public forum. This is a PCGS forum paid for by PCGS and provided for PCGS customers to exchange information regarding collecting US coins. We make the rules this is not a democracy.
Rule 2) Anyone posting crude or vulgar pictures or language will no longer be allowed to post. No more warnings.
Rule 3) Anyone attacking another poster or making disparaging personal remarks will no longer be allowed to post. No more warnings.
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Rule 5) If you have nothing to contribute to an OP then do not post. Snide remarks and other negative comments will result in your losing your ability to post. No more warnings.
Rule 6) This forum is about US Coins. If your post is not directly related to US Coins then this is the wrong forum. Do not post it or your posting privileges may be removed.
Rule 7) This is a PCGS forum. Posts promoting or bashing other grading companies or service are not allowed. Those posts will be removed and your posting privileges may be removed as well.
Rule 8) This forum is provided for the education and sharing of information. Not as a personal soapbox. If you want to learn and share information about US Coins you are welcome.
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Rule 10) If you don't like any of the rules outlined above see Rule 1.
11) No one should be allowed to speak well of a modern coin
And by the way Nick is an A+ guy who is easy to deal with and is always true to his word.
<< <i>The regular proofs I got graded are starting to spot already. ~10% of the proofs I got graded have spots developing, those not graded have no spots. I guess it's good I got so few PR70DCAM's.... And those are going for just a little over my cost.
Why is this?! So far, my 2012 proofs are ok, but the 2011 25th anniversary proofs have spots....
<< <i>Nick: Hi. This is wonderful for your website, but SPAM here in this context. Maybe an interested modern collector might link your website in the future if you produce more stories like this one?
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin >>
don't think buyers will believe hype after the Silver Eagle anniv set let down from last fall
<< <i>
<< <i>"Both Goldmart.com, and Nick VanderLaan, the author of this Market Report, have a vested interest in PCGS PR70 First Strike 75th Anniversary Sets."
I welcome Nick just as much as anyone. But, there is already enough distain out there for ultra modern coins and the rules are the rules ... no spam. Albeit on Post 1 or Post 10,000.
I believe the proper method to getting a piece like this out to a larger audience (such as this message board) is to post it on one's own website (for example) and if collectors find it interesting, it will find its way here... right?
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin >>
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Is PCGS attributing the 2012-S Silver Eagle from the Coin and Currency Set? I haven't seen any on eBay yet. >>
Yes I have one set in there right now and wish I had more to send in before the cutoff sept 6. I believe those in first strike will be the sleepers........Enjoy
I used to be famous now I just collect coins.
Link to My Registry Set.
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/quarters/washington-quarters-specialty-sets/washington-quarters-complete-variety-set-circulation-strikes-1932-1964/publishedset/78469
Varieties Are The Spice Of LIFE and Thanks to Those who teach us what to search For.
<< <i>
<< <i>Is PCGS attributing the 2012-S Silver Eagle from the Coin and Currency Set? I haven't seen any on eBay yet. >>
Yes I have one set in there right now and wish I had more to send in before the cutoff sept 6. I believe those in first strike will be the sleepers........Enjoy
carp.
missed the FS cutoff
just sold the house so full out purchasing is back on.
Am I going to have to call or do you know if:
1. there is a special label for the set
2. the $5 gets a special label from the currency grading folks?
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Is PCGS attributing the 2012-S Silver Eagle from the Coin and Currency Set? I haven't seen any on eBay yet. >>
Yes I have one set in there right now and wish I had more to send in before the cutoff sept 6. I believe those in first strike will be the sleepers........Enjoy
carp.
missed the FS cutoff
just sold the house so full out purchasing is back on.
Am I going to have to call or do you know if:
1. there is a special label for the set
2. the $5 gets a special label from the currency grading folks? >>
Suppose to have its own label showing CC set and they would not do any offers on grading the 5 dollar bill, I think thats why most of the dealers went across the street to get both graded together. I really had hoped pcgs would do a special, but after a few phone calls I realized it wasn''t going to happen. Wonder if any other board members got these off in time?
I used to be famous now I just collect coins.
Link to My Registry Set.
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/quarters/washington-quarters-specialty-sets/washington-quarters-complete-variety-set-circulation-strikes-1932-1964/publishedset/78469
Varieties Are The Spice Of LIFE and Thanks to Those who teach us what to search For.
<< <i>don't think buyers will believe hype after the Silver Eagle anniv set let down from last fall >>
I agree there was some serious hype at the peak of the 25th Anniversary run, but I respectfully disagree with your comment because there is no hype for the 75th Anniversary PCGS PR70 First Strike Set. The only thing this set has going for it is hard numbers. The 75th Anniversary PR70 First Strike set is rare when compared to the 25th Anniversary 70 First Strike set and possibly in the future collectors who own 25th Anniversary PCGS 70 First Strike Set will eventually recognize how rare these sets are in PR70 First Strike and they will need a 75th Anniversary PR70 First Strike set to add to their collection.
<< <i>
<< <i>Nick: Hi. This is wonderful for your website, but SPAM here in this context. Maybe an interested modern collector might link your website in the future if you produce more stories like this one?
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin >>
don't think buyers will believe hype after the Silver Eagle anniv set let down from last fall >>
What let down are you speaking of?
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Once the 2012's were announced, people no longer had to pay $400 for a reverse proof 70. Those who simply want a reverse proof coin and don't care as much about mintage or year just buy the 2012. This obviously hurts demand for the 2011 set. So the next question I am usually asked is well what happens if they make another reverse proof coin in the future. Its a great question and depends on a ton of variables we can talk for at least 3 hours about . Anyway, unless this is a business for you (like it is for me), buy what you like because you like it. And also , never take anyones word for anything no matter who they are. I urge everyone in coins (and in life) to listen to all opinions they can, double check the facts and premises, and then create your own.
for themselves. I have also stopped buying from the mint for the same reasons. They have just gotten their prices up too high and make it
too hard for the little guy to make a profit on them with the costs on ebay, and for getting them graded, so high as well. You have to buy
hundreds of sets and hope for a bunch of 70's to cover your losses on the 69's. Just a personal business decision on my part but I am sure
other people feel this way also. If you are just a collector and want one set I guess it works out ok with their price though.
In PR70 First Strike, the 2012-S proof Silver Eagle from the *Coin and Currency Set* will likely leave both of the above sets in the dust. Only 9 so far in the pop. report, reportedly not many waiting to be graded, and no sealed FS elegible boxes to be found on eBay.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>I have 7 c&c sets in sealed box. What would be the smartest thing to do with them. All opinions respected. Thank you What is the total number of first strikes graded? And where can u find this info. Sorry I'm a noob to some of this still. Just to get my odds figured out >>
I'd hold them and keep them sealed. There's very little down side from here, but monster upside potential dependent on total C&C sets sold, total 2012-s proofs sold, and number of 70 FS slabbed.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
