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Monitoring the transformation of Ryan Howard into Dave Kingman
Objectivity
Posts: 169
in Sports Talk
First, lets get this out of the way...Ryan Howard had one season that Dave Kingman never could approach...and one or two more that are just a tad out of Kingman's reach. Other than that he has been doing a good impersonation of Dave Kingman, and it has been said previous to signing his big contract that he was morphing into Dave Kingman.
This thread is a watch to see if he is indeed morphing into Kingman.
Lets look at his last four years(2009-2012) and compare Kingman to him at the same age...
Here are their OPS+
AGE......HOward.....Kingman
29.........141............132
30........127............146
31........126............128
32........106............123
Total.....129............134...during that time period
Now lets look into the future. Obviously, Howard's numbers are not there, but time will tell.
33.........?................99
34.........?................79
35.........?................133
36.........?................104
37.........?.................90
Total.....?.................104......during this time period
When it is all said and done it is sure looking that during Howard's 13 year career as a starter, that the last nine of those years may well be a pretty darn good Dave Kingman impersonation.
That sure is a lot of money to be paying him.
This thread is a watch to see if he is indeed morphing into Kingman.
Lets look at his last four years(2009-2012) and compare Kingman to him at the same age...
Here are their OPS+
AGE......HOward.....Kingman
29.........141............132
30........127............146
31........126............128
32........106............123
Total.....129............134...during that time period
Now lets look into the future. Obviously, Howard's numbers are not there, but time will tell.
33.........?................99
34.........?................79
35.........?................133
36.........?................104
37.........?.................90
Total.....?.................104......during this time period
When it is all said and done it is sure looking that during Howard's 13 year career as a starter, that the last nine of those years may well be a pretty darn good Dave Kingman impersonation.
That sure is a lot of money to be paying him.
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Baseball, even though we disagree on the rings with QB's, in my absence, you carry a good torch in analyzing baseball. I've silently read many of your posts with pride over the recent past.
If I recall, I believe we disagree on post season baseball players too, and you are one of the guys I like to debate. So I will take this time to use Ryan Howard as another example of the myth of the post season baseball player. Those guys who outperform their norm are simply a product of randomness. Howard should have retired after they won the WS...instead, the law of averages caught up to him and he suddenly became awful in the post season. Kind of the way it happened to Bernie Williams. Williams could have retired as Babe Ruth after his first few post season...but the law of averages caught up to him too.
I remember fondly those days of Jaxxr's analytical methods that made Kingman on par with Honus Wagner.
Eddie Murray was recently in the news too. Now there is no way Jaxxr can resist!
<< <i>Perkdog, as always, a pleasure. We have disagreed on some sports topics...but always the most humble respect to you. >>
Right back atcha my friend!
Always, always a pleasure to see you posting.
AVG .219
OB% .295
SLG% .423
OPS+ 91
Winpitcher, you may have been right in asserting I was wrong in that Howard was transforming into Kingman...he is heading for Mick Kelleher territory
<< <i>Why do you keep changing your screen name? >>
When I start posting too much and getting into the fray a little too much, I 'retire' the name to keep myself in check, until I am ready to try again and I start over.
Also, I have to keep myself from banging my head on the wall too much when responding to the nonsense that is posted in the threads pertaining to Rice and Ryan Howard...my head can only handle a certain amount of brick time!
<< <i>
<< <i>Why do you keep changing your screen name? >>
When I start posting too much and getting into the fray a little too much, I 'retire' the name to keep myself in check, until I am ready to try again and I start over.
Also, I have to keep myself from banging my head on the wall too much when responding to the nonsense that is posted in the threads pertaining to Rice and Ryan Howard...my head can only handle a certain amount of brick time! >>
The verdict is finally in:
Howard did indeed turn into Kingman after his(Howard's very short peak)
From age 33-, no need for the question marks:
..........Howard........Kong
33.........115................99
34.........92...............79
35.........96................133
36.........85................104
37.........Fired...............90
Total.....96.................104......during this time period
Ryan Howard's OPS+ was a Kingman 'lite' 96 and he got fired before he could complete it.
He turned into Kingman quickly.
Even for the back of the baseball card guys:
Howard ended up with 382 HR and 1,194 RBI
Kong 442 and 1,210.
Dave could really launch some moon shots.