Example of how a PSA 9 card population can change quickly

PSARich

Here's an interesting example of how a PSA card population can change quickly and I assume impact the card's value. The card is from the 1959 Topps baseball high number series; Bob Turley All Star #570. For the first 20 years of PSA, there were three graded PSA 9 mint. I have two nice ungraded ones and about three months ago I sent one in for grading and got a 9...the population is now at 4. I decided to keep it for my collection instead of selling thinking that history shows this is a pretty difficult card to get a 9 on so there is no hurry to maximize it's selling value. About a month ago I sent in the other and my grades were just posted yesterday...got another 9 so the population is now at 5...or so I thought. When I checked the population on PSA there are now 6 PSA 9's. Therefore someone also got a 9 on this card in the past few months. In a matter of 3 months the population doubled from 3 to 6. First 20 years of PSA grading = 3 PSA 9's, last 3 months = 3 PSA 9's. Just goes to show that what we think is pretty rare isn't necessarily so. We will soon find out what it is worth as one has just put one up for auction. It ends in 9 days and is currently up to $56.

llafoe

If you purchase the one on eBay, you can own 5 of the 6!

jmmiller777

I would say 6 PSA's is still a rare amount. Especially if you own half the population.

addicted2ebay

Interesting topic, I would have to say that even if there were multiple 9's in a population but one person had %67 of them like you do that it would not kill the value. The real value of a card is it's availability and if you and the others have never sold them then it really is much more rare than a pop 2 or 3 that changes hands. Good luck on your auction.

CocoaBeachDodgers

PSARich,

I am glad you created this thread because it reminded me of a thought & I would like to hear from the experts out there on this idea.

There are many examples or cards a person could try this with, but let's use the 1962 Lou Brock rookie PSA 8. Last I checked there was a population of 194, might be a couple more by now. Let's say a young man started buying every one that came up for sale & stashed them away for let's say 30 years. There is quite a demand for this card anyway with collectors that are collecting 1962 Topps, Lou Brock Basic & Masters sets, Post War HOF Rookies, plus many other sets...There will not be a great number of these graded in the future making the availability of this card scarce. Than, in 30 years, the invester could start releasing these cards at quite a premium, probably better than he could of done investing the same amount in a 401K or likewise.

This is just a thought, I am way to old to attempt this great or terrible idea, but I would like to hear from some of you all, and if you decide to try this, just send me one of the centered Brocks!!!

grote15

This topic raises an interesting point. If you own a pop 1 or pop 2 PSA 10 and sub a bunch of cards and get another PSA 10 of that same card, does the new PSA 10 compensate for the decline in value for the other(s) PSA 10 cards? For a common card, where value is tied directly to the pop, I'm not so sure.

Toro

If you own the number one registry and are well off, you could buy any being sold and simply burn the card.

addicted2ebay

<< <i>So......... If you owned 5 of the POP 6 and you cracked 4 of them and got them off the POP report at PSA would you be better off now owning 1 of a pop 2 with four raw "9"'s in your vault?????? >>



Cant see a buyer purchasing a low pop card just to snap it out and risking it getting a lower grade.I am sure that there are population hounds keeping them in there slabs trying to corner the market. If they did pop the cards out do they then contact PSA and inform them to lower the populations? If you could make a 1989 Upper Deck Grifey RC a 1.5 or 2.5 you would have a pop 1, would there actually be a market for it?

TheCARDKid

I think card values have to do with availability.

If there were 3 9's to begin with, and none traded hands (say a few set collectors need it), it would go for a lot of money. I don't follow 59's, but I've seen 58 commons go for thousands of dollars. It really comes down to availability.

If the population goes to 6, and they still aren't trading (and you have 2), then has the value really changed, probably not.

-The only vintage psa 9 or 10 examples I would worry about....like the 52 Bowman Casey Stengel. It went to like, 40 PSA 9's? After 52 Bowman set collectors, and Stengel collectors, and maybe yankees, the demand drops off.

It really depends on how competitive the sets are. If people put away a few 59 sets, and there's only 2 or 3 Turley 9's available, it will still be very valuable.

PSARich

Just to clarify, I do not own the first three that were graded 9 in the first 20 years of PSA. I own 2 of the next three that have been graded 9...... I have 2 of the 6 PSA 9's. I will put one on eBay sometime in the future.

bxb

Rich, I believe there are still lots of high grade raw cards out there relative to the number that are PSA graded, especially for cards 1959 and later.

For example, I used to collect the 1967 Topps baseball set. When I started in 2004, there were about 200 PSA 10s. Now there are 785 and counting, and the values for PSA 10 commons have dropped correspondingly.

From my observations, the newer 10s represent a mixture of quality raw cards, overgraded cards, and artificially enhanced cards that fooled the graders.

The values will reflect supply and demand for the most part, where each set must be analyzed individually.

Take care,

LP

70ToppsFanatic

This one hits home for me, but the card in question is the 1971 Topps #300 Brooks Robinson.

After many, many years the first EVER PSA 9 was graded and came to market in November 2010. In May/June 2011
the second and third came onto the market. Then in January 2012, a fourth one cam eup on the market. Unfortunately
this one was significant over-graded (and it's sale price reflected that).

As of today there are now FIVE examples listed in the pop report. Hard to imagine that after 20 years of none getting
graded as 9s suddenly 5 come through at 9, especially with it being the 1971 black-bordered set.