Home Precious Metals

China currently recasting large gold bars

derrybderryb Posts: 36,790 ✭✭✭✭✭
Latest from Jim Willie

"The Chinese are removing thousands of metric tons of gold bars from London, New York, and Switzerland. They are recasting the bars, no longer to bear weights in ounces, but rather kilograms. The larger Good Delivery bars are being reduced into 1-kg bars and stored in China. It is not clear whether the recast project is being done entirely in China, as some indication has come that Swiss foundries might be involved, since they have so much experience and capacity.

The story of recasting in London is confirmed by my best source. It seems patently clear that the Chinese are preparing for a new system for trade settlement system, to coincide with a new banking reserve system. They might make a sizeable portion of the new 1-kg bars available for retail investors and wealthy individuals in China. They will discard the toxic USTreasury Bond basis for banking. Two messages are unmistakable. A grand flipped bird (aka FU) is being given to the Western and British system of pounds and ounces and other queer ton measures. But perhaps something bigger is involved. Maybe a formal investigation of tungsten laced bars is being conducted in hidden manner."

"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

«1

Comments

  • mhammermanmhammerman Posts: 3,769 ✭✭✭
    Well, the Chinese probably don't want to lose 20% of their exports by trashing our economy but then again, they might see it as a good way to come back after the devestation and buy the place up...people gotta eat. The weights and measures idea has some merit but it seems that they are going through a lot of work just to have convenient units. I like the idea of creating a new world financial order by the Chinese and that would be a rational plan and much to the way of their philosophy "All war is based on deception."

    Chinese export countries

    English Weights and Measures
    The French Metric system

    Got GOLD?
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,100 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Wilie lives in a world all unto himself. He has my sympathies.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 32,115 ✭✭✭✭✭
    At $20.67 an ounce, or $35 an ounce, 400 ounce bars made good sense.

    At $1600 an ounce, kilo bars (32.15 tr. oz) are more practical.
    Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,790 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Wilie lives in a world all unto himself. He has my sympathies. >>



    "Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years."

    He is a lot smarter and more experienced than most here, including you and I.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,100 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Wilie lives in a world all unto himself. He has my sympathies. >>



    "Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years."

    He is a lot smarter and more experienced than most here, including you and I. >>



    How do you know what I know? How do you know my experiences? Do you know who I know?

    There are lots of smart people who are off their rocker. They live in a little world consumed by manipulation and conspiracy theories. They know nothing other than the stacks of propaganda that litter their office. I dont think Wilie knows how to have fun. And for this he has my sympathies.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • tneigtneig Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭
    If I were them, its what I would do. Make my nation more independant.
    COA
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,790 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>How do you know what I know? How do you know my experiences? Do you know who I know? >>


    I read your posts.

    Don't get me wrong, the new guys here need a contrarion point of view thus they fall into the pitfalls of a bad investment decision. Knowledge is everything with PMs. A variety of opinions increases that knowledge.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,100 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I dont think they need a contrarian point of view as much as they need a realistic one. Im not against PMs, I just view them realistically. People can and do lose money with them--even if held till death.

    A little realism and humility goes a long way in understanding and knowledge.

    Wilie "touts" his PhD. For what reason? To make him sound more credible? Like people respect PhDs? I've met more than my share of whacky PhDs, as im sure you have.

    Did he use is "superior" grasp of statistics--as he professes, to calculate with 89.97% confidence that China in recasting gold bars (which we dont even know is true) in an effort to create a new currency? Wilie is thought provoking, but that is all.


    Some stats for Wilie to chew on. Where does he stand?


    http://www.iqcomparisonsite.com/IQtable.aspx
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • fishcookerfishcooker Posts: 3,446 ✭✭
    There's nothing more dangerous than a PhD with a hammer... image
  • carew4mecarew4me Posts: 3,470 ✭✭✭✭
    Not one of these geniuses can tell you what spot will be in 4 weeks.

    Loves me some shiny!
  • streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Wylie writes a newsletter. He's no fool. He is still benefiting off his recommendation of gold before it sprouted wings. He will use that gold recommendation until the day he dies.

    He is still 2 cents short of a dime.

    If this WORLD WIDE recession lasts a little longer...WHICH IT WILL.....3-7+ years IMHO.....China will implode. They can't even begin to pay for their still as yet to be determined unfunded mandates.
    It's a lovely country but it's in trouble. The list of their troubles is very long. And...they get along with no one. Most people who do business with them are very careful for a reason.
    Have a nice day
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,790 ✭✭✭✭✭
    the facts remain:
    China is the world's second largest economy
    China has the world's fastest growing economy

    Speaking of ability to to pay unfunded mandates, I would suspect the US is the world leader.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    China still holds the record for the shortest list on record.

    That would be the passenger manifest of moderately successful Western businessmen who will willingly fly on a 20 year old Chinese manufactured airplane.
    Have a nice day
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,790 ✭✭✭✭✭
    China has many flaws but that doesn't change the fact that they are the fastest growing economy in the world and are smartly positioning themselves to challenge the reserve currency status of the US dollar. Anything that affects US dollar affects PMs. Because of the research from those like Willie, investors who keep their head out of the sand stand to profit best in the future.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    China,

    1. Has a billion and a half people.
    2. Has no neighbors it gets along with.
    3. Has 400+ million people who have never seen a doctor.
    4. Has newly built cities that have not yet started crumbling but do have 'air' you wouldn't want to breath.
    5. Has an economy that expands only by the percentage that counterfeit goods account for in the economy.
    6. Has a political system that represses it's residents.
    7. Has 9 ruling families that are continually maneuvering with political gamesmanship.
    8. Has an economy built on cheap export products.
    9. Relies heavily on blocking & censoring internet access to keep it's people uninformed.
    10. Has a citizenry with the highest smoking rate and gambling rate in the world.
    11. When it trades with other countries, it transforms that country into a surrogate. I wonder how that works out when said country wakes up? Ask Canada in about 10 years if the ......Keystone Pipeline doesn't go through.

    I have always found it peculiar that each year, the flu epidemic originates in China.

    Lovely country, I wish them well. By the time it thinks it can overcome the Petrodollar, the USA will be using it's own natural gas, oil, nuclear, coal and solar and hydro and wind for energy. We can feed our own people. Our water is potable. We are basically in a position to be a largely self sufficient country or nearly so for the next 100 years.

    Have a nice day
  • carew4mecarew4me Posts: 3,470 ✭✭✭✭
    Not to mention, while China's growth has been extraordinary, it has been in fact, extraordinary, leading some to question
    "goverment" statistics. (just like our current regime image


    Can't say that I would cheer lead a China collapse though...they seem to have that can do spirit we had in the 1960s.
    Combine that with their willingness to sacrifice, enslave, and experiment on their people, I look for some really
    cool break throughs to come from China over the next 20 years*



    *Assuming we don't have to destroy their infrastructure do to an overt, military initiated energy move.




    << <i>China,

    1. Has a billion and a half people.
    2. Has no neighbors it gets along with.
    3. Has 400+ million people who have never seen a doctor.
    4. Has newly built cities that have not yet started crumbling but do have 'air' you wouldn't want to breath.
    5. Has an economy that expands only by the percentage that counterfeit goods account for in the economy.
    6. Has a political system that represses it's residents.
    7. Has 9 ruling families that are continually maneuvering with political gamesmanship.
    8. Has an economy built on cheap export products.
    9. Relies heavily on blocking & censoring internet access to keep it's people uninformed.
    10. Has a citizenry with the highest smoking rate and gambling rate in the world.
    11. When it trades with other countries, it transforms that country into a surrogate. I wonder how that works out when said country wakes up? Ask Canada in about 10 years if the ......Keystone Pipeline doesn't go through.

    I have always found it peculiar that each year, the flu epidemic originates in China.

    Lovely country, I wish them well. By the time it thinks it can overcome the Petrodollar, the USA will be using it's own natural gas, oil, nuclear, coal and solar and hydro and wind for energy. We can feed our own people. Our water is potable. We are basically in a position to be a largely self sufficient country or nearly so for the next 100 years. >>


    Loves me some shiny!
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,100 ✭✭✭✭✭
    For the next 100 years I would rather live in the USA than China.

    China faces a MASSIVE demographic problem. What does Wilie's research say about that?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>
    China is the world's second largest economy
    China has the world's fastest growing economy
    >>



    Isn't that exactly what was said about Japan in the mid-1980's? Remember, they were going to own the USA and buy the rest of the world, too.

    Those forecasts were because of the most common mistake people tend to make... extrapolating current "trends" and expecting them to continue forever

    China's economy's "annual % growth rate" has been easy to maintain, because so many people there are getting their 1st refrigerator, 1st TV, 1st computer.

    Wait, didn't China cause some huge "Asian Contagion" that staggered the world economy for a while in the late 1990's? 1997 maybe? We're due for another of those this decade perhaps...

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • mhammermanmhammerman Posts: 3,769 ✭✭✭
    2008 Olympics
    Go ahead, it will only take 8 minutes to watch.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,790 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's not about which is the best place to live or who has the best hamburgers. It's about China's potential affect on the dollar and its reserve currency status. Indications are (from more researchers than just Willie) that China is preparing to challenge the dollar's dominating need in the world marketplace. Loss of it's pretty much required use in international trade, even between non-US players, will greatly affect its strength. Where the dollar goes, PMs tend to go the opposite direction. Those that pay attention can greatly benefit. Those that ignore because they don't like China will be left behind.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Derry,

    Speaking for myself only. I do not 'dislike' or ignore China. I try to see it as it is not how many others perceive it.

    Fact: there is not enough gold in the world to use it as a basis of world trade. Gold is an insurance policy. Silver is an industrial metal and to a slight extent-an entry into precious metals for newbies and sharp traders. The bloom is off silver.

    Derry, I am able to advance plan and forecast as well as just about anybody from my UC Berkeley peer group. And better than some who have squandered their families wealth the last 37 years.
    I observe Chinese trading techniques and methods DAILY. Most of my business associates on the west coast trade with them and you WANT TO HEAR HORROR STORIES?

    You know why China is the worlds largest importer of cattle? Because it has to be---it killed off most of it's herd due to disease.
    You know why it has a balance of payments surplus? Because the dingbat American consumer hasn't figured out that most cheap Chinese imports aren't even worth what they cost.
    You know why it can sell a FORD aftermarket exhaust manifold for the cost of the raw material in that manifold? Because the Chinese Govt subsidizes the rest.

    How long can they continue with these practices? Not forever certainly. The race to overcome the PETRODOLLAR is a marathon. I don't think they have the ability to finish the race. My bet is on the Yankee.

    Have a nice day
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I love it in China. Plus their Chinese food is better. With that being said, I still prefer my own bed in the US of A...............as derryb alludes China is the lynchpin economically for the forseeable future . If they sneeze we all catch the flu. It used to be said the same about the USA. Not quite the same anymore. Nobody expects much growth from the us. China has to have big sustained growth to keep the economic globe spinning as is.

    <<You know why it has a balance of payments surplus? Because the dingbat American consumer hasn't figured out that most cheap Chinese imports aren't even worth what they cost>>

    American companies that spec out and approve these cheap imports know exactly what they are doing. They know most Americans won't step up to the plate and pay more. The Patriotic Buy in the USA camp always say they will but they almost always vote with their wallets at the cash registers. It's not that China is shipping intentional cheap crap to the US, it's that US companies are. They are the ones that are approving the goods. It's all about margin.

    MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • CCC2010CCC2010 Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭
    I agree pretty much with MJ and the OP. One scary thing about China becoming a Superpower is that it will bully other countries in getting what it will claim as a historical birthright... A good example is the group of Islands in Asia and one of them is called Scarborough shoals near the Philippines. Its about 500 miles away from China and within the 200 mile radius from the nearest PHilippine island. It is reported that according to Maritime law within 200 miles to sea is within a countries territory making that part of the Philippines. Other shoals exist in the area that are reported to be rich in Natural gas and Oil deposits and other Asian countries like Vietnam and Singapore etc. are laying claim to the Other islands within their territory. China wants all of these shoals. China sent in "Observation vessels---basically Chinese Navy warships" and blocked the Philippine fishermen from entering the said shoal to do their fishing as they have done all these years because they said its Chinese territory by Historical birthright. They are building their Chinese Navy,Airforce to be better than ours and just sent their first woman Austronaut into space. Just a scary thought what they will do next. Just saying... OH did i mention China has its OWN Space Station? Not the Intl Space station...Their very own... Its called Temple of Heaven if i am not mistaken.
    References:Coinsarefun,DerryB,Bloodman,Zubie,Gerard,Skyman,Bestclser1,Lakesammman,Yellowkid,PerryHall,Piecesofme,HTubbs,grote15
    Coinfame,Kaelasdad,Type2,UNLVino,MICHAELDIXON
    Justacommeman,tydye,78saen,123cents,blue62vette,Segoja,Nibanny
  • streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    well,
    I see MJ has joined the fracas. MJ, which American company approved the Chinese manufacturing use of melamine for increased protein for American imported pet food?

    How are the Chinese going to deal with the 'one child' doctrine that encourages euthanasia and abortions of females whereby China has a disproportionate amount of fighting age males with no mate? This doctrine will turn China on it's head within 20 years.

    What will happen to the Chinese real estate market when it is currently acknowledged at least 50 million housing units have not had power turned on within the last six months? And another 50 million are being finished or are in the pipeline? That's a 100 million vacant units. How do you say REAL ESTATE BUST in Chinese?

    What will be the cost of 400 million people with no medical care? Do they have enough gold to pay for this? Is there enough gold on the planet to pay for this?

    For a country's financial system to take over the honor/responsibility of being the worlds reserve currency...don't they first have to get along in the world?

    MJ, BTW--prepare now for silver at the payment level. image Start building that wooden crate for shipment. I anxiously await your reply.

    regards, your obedient servant
    Have a nice day
  • joefrojoefro Posts: 1,872 ✭✭
    Maybe they are checking them all for tungsten.
    Lincoln Cent & Libertad Collector
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,790 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Maybe they are checking them all for tungsten. >>


    Read the OP link.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Like people respect PhDs? I've met more than my share of whacky PhDs, as im sure you have >>



    So, next we will hear how some people are much more intelligent and they dont need that "fancy" education......

    I've heard that comment so many times from those who couldnt even get admitted to college - much less graduate - i'd like to puke.
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>well,
    I see MJ has joined the fracas. MJ, which American company approved the Chinese manufacturing use of melamine for increased protein for American imported pet food?

    How are the Chinese going to deal with the 'one child' doctrine that encourages euthanasia and abortions of females whereby China has a disproportionate amount of fighting age males with no mate? This doctrine will turn China on it's head within 20 years.

    What will happen to the Chinese real estate market when it is currently acknowledged at least 50 million housing units have not had power turned on within the last six months? And another 50 million are being finished or are in the pipeline? That's a 100 million vacant units. How do you say REAL ESTATE BUST in Chinese?

    What will be the cost of 400 million people with no medical care? Do they have enough gold to pay for this? Is there enough gold on the planet to pay for this?

    For a country's financial system to take over the honor/responsibility of being the worlds reserve currency...don't they first have to get along in the world?

    MJ, BTW--prepare now for silver at the payment level. image Start building that wooden crate for shipment. I anxiously await your reply.

    regards, your obedient servant >>



    1) American Pet Food companies in your example should be inspecting the product. BTW- my dog's expensive American made dog food was recalled about about six weeks ago for possibly being tainted. I'm still waiting on the check.

    2) My assistant in China (Zita Huang) is expecting her second child in December. Her first child was a girl. My driver has three girls and one boy. His name is Wing Ding. Terrible name, great driver. I work out of a factory that has 200 females. Half of them are with child or so it seems. I don't drink the water their for that reason.

    3) There was massive over building in the "hot areas". Most of this was a result of investment/developers going for big scores so don't feel sorry for them. They were late to the game. The Chinese Government is not on the hook. Capitalism, God Bless it.. They learned from us. I suppose we are both in the same predictiment real estate wise.

    4) Medical care? I wouldn't want to be treated in China that's for sure. However, I trust they will figure it out just like we will figure out or Social Security/Medicare problem. Seems like there isn't enough gold for that either. FWIW- The Chinese culture honors their elderly.

    5) no way will China be the worlds reserve currency. However, they will have a major say in what is.

    China is big. China has big problems no doubt. However on a class curve they are still in the current cat birds seat. Their biggest problem will be water in the future IMO.

    As far as our silver bet is concerned I think I'm still winning in the bottom of the fifth inning. All is good either way.

    MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,100 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Like people respect PhDs? I've met more than my share of whacky PhDs, as im sure you have >>



    So, next we will hear how some people are much more intelligent and they dont need that "fancy" education......

    I've heard that comment so many times from those who couldnt even get admitted to college - much less graduate - i'd like to puke. >>




    Do you have a PhD?image

    College is a great place to drink beer, play with girls and make potential business associates. There is no substitute for practical experience in ones chosen field. Some of the most successful people in this country either never went to or dropped out of college.


    no way will China be the worlds reserve currency

    Of course I agree.image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • joefrojoefro Posts: 1,872 ✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Maybe they are checking them all for tungsten. >>


    Read the OP link. >>



    Yep, checking for the tungsten was my first thought. Maybe with enough they could find out where they are coming from. Or maybe making their own tungsten bars!? image
    Lincoln Cent & Libertad Collector
  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 32,115 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>At $20.67 an ounce, or $35 an ounce, 400 ounce bars made good sense.

    At $1600 an ounce, kilo bars (32.15 tr. oz) are more practical. >>



    I guess the practical answer (above) wasn't interesting enough.

    Back when I was working for Harlan Berk in Chicago, we sold a LOT of kilo gold bars. We sold exactly ONE of the traditional 400 ounce bars, to a customer who specifically ordered one just to have one, and he later sold it back because it was tying up too much money.

    TD
    Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,790 ✭✭✭✭✭
    No way China will become the world's second largest econony.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,100 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>No way China will become the world's second largest econony. >>




    China better watch their backs cuz India will be an the run. Better demographics and economically where China was 20 years ago. Also much better relationship with the rest of the world.

    My money going forward would be on India over China.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • tneigtneig Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭
    I understand all points. I'm not under estimating the impact that China has and could have on the US and rest of the world. Everything, everywhere is already interelated and external things already affect us. I work here in the US in a major corp, and surrounded by foreign workers from many places and off shore support groups. All nice folks. Just see that its not the US standing alone anymore, and we are all very interelated.

    Pick up almost anything and read the stamp of where it was manufactured.
    They are storing more gold which gives them extra security. Recasting to their system is slick!
    They are working on international exchange systems outside the us dollar.
    Likely not as concerned about defaulting on obligations outside their nation.
    Flood us with counterfeits of all sorts.
    Is their over inflated growth boom which they hope to grow into, any less stable then our national dept issues.
    In an international crisis, I'd rather see them siding with us or neutral, than with or as the opposition.
    COA
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,790 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>My money going forward would be on India over China. >>


    Point of the OP that you seem to be missing is that China will have a major affect on the value of that money you will be betting on India.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,100 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I get the point. I just dont see the world wholeheartedly adopting an Chinese currency. I think most reasonable countries view the Chinese Govt with skepticism. Look who China is making agreements with--Iran and Russia. Certainly not countries with stability. Only reason they are doing something with Japan (and it is small) is due to geographic proximity.

    A Chinese currency would only be embraced by those countries that have a "beef" with the USA and/or Europe. The US dollar will be the defacto standard for generations to come. Gold and silver are already 6-8x their prices of a decade ago. It is very possible that future events are already reflected in current pricing.

    And I really dont view a currency having a backing via gold as having more clout than one backed by a military, technology and natural resources. You obviously feel differently, and thats what makes a market. Gold only has value because people think it does. Corn has value cuz it keeps you alive. China can have all the gold, I want all the corn.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>My money going forward would be on India over China. >>


    Point of the OP that you seem to be missing is that China will have a major affect on the value of that money you will be betting on India. >>



    Which means "China" will have a major effect on the value of the money we're betting on anything, anywhere, presumably?
    No one is "missing" the point, we're saying, "so?" there's always a shifting monetary context to economic activity.

    Won't individual performance of various securities, commodities, and other assets (Including "the precious", <gollum gollum&gtimage versus the currencies be what matters to wealth accumulation?

    In other words, if someone has no time to watch the "crisis!" news or read the "catastrophe!" papers or "we're smarter than you" blogs, because their work is booming and they're busy taking care of customers and cashing checks, then they won't give a care to such big issues except in an abstract way, for entertainment.

    It's quite possible for an American to prosper and completely ignore China, India, the Moon, and Mars too. "Ignore China at your peril!" makes them laugh image

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,790 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>And I really dont view a currency having a backing via gold as having more clout than one backed by a military, technology and natural resources. You obviously feel differently, and thats what makes a market. Gold only has value because people think it does. Corn has value cuz it keeps you alive. China can have all the gold, I want all the corn. >>


    Gold backing means little. It's the illusion of stability that matters, and the illusion of the dollar, in foreign eyes, is wearing off as demonstrated by their efforts to removing it from non-US transactions. While Iraq and Libya's efforts/plans to cut the dollar out of trade for oil were met with military force, China will be a different story. Look for economic warfare with China to try to curb their effort.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,790 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>My money going forward would be on India over China. >>


    Point of the OP that you seem to be missing is that China will have a major affect on the value of that money you will be betting on India. >>



    Which means "China" will have a major effect on the value of the money we're betting on anything, anywhere, presumably?
    No one is "missing" the point, we're saying, "so?" there's always a shifting monetary context to economic activity.

    Won't individual performance of various securities, commodities, and other assets (Including "the precious", <gollum gollum&gtimage versus the currencies be what matters to wealth accumulation?

    In other words, if someone has no time to watch the "crisis!" news or read the "catastrophe!" papers or "we're smarter than you" blogs, because their work is booming and they're busy taking care of customers and cashing checks, then they won't give a care to such big issues except in an abstract way, for entertainment.

    It's quite possible for a American to prosper and completely ignore China, India, the Moon, and Mars too. "Ignore China at your peril!" makes them laugh image >>



    "So?"

    My neighbor the successful realtor ignored the brewing real estate crisis because he was making money. Now he's still looking for work.

    It's unlikely for a PM holder to prosper without paying attention to what affects the value of his PMs. We are discussing PMs on this forum, correct?

    Ignore China's affect on your PMs at your peril.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Cutting to the chase, I have a pocketfull of gold coins, how can China affect them? Make them change value?

    Not ignoring, au contraire, if they go up in dollars I'll sell some and spend the dollars on something else, if they go down I'll sell something else and buy more gold.

    What more do experts recommend I do, what actions should I take, in my process of not ignoring China? Serious question I'd like to know because I do care what this gold is worth.
    Not overmuch, as they are not big pockets and my other stuff is worth more than this gold, but the value of the gold is not negligible so I'd like to know what action to take vis a vis China today, next week and next year, thanks

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,790 ✭✭✭✭✭
    As the thread says many times, China is in a position to affect the dollar, dollar affects PM price. PM price affects the gold in your pocket. It's that simple.
    Surely if you own GE stock, news concerning GE concerns you.

    "A powerful China is coming, and we have two choices. Either we're at the table, or we're on the menu." --- Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think China is aware that physical properties and hard assets around the world are going to be worth more than the dollars that are constantly being devalued by overspending and gross financial mismanagement in the US. China has big incentives to disperse their dollars around the world in exchange for other things of value.

    Any trend towards regional currencies is a trend that is negative for the dollar and positive for gold (in dollar terms). Any divestment by China of their holdings in Treasuries (dollars) is a trend that is negative for the dollar and positive for gold.

    The demographics in China may not be as good as in the US or in India, but that still doesn't change the fact that our balance of trade with China is negative. That, and the overhang of Treasuries in China bode ill for the dollar especially when the national debt can't be serviced without a ZIR policy. Zero interest rates are normally a reflection of risk, and with the financial structure of today's US banking system - that premise is a ridiculous assumption. Interest rates normally reflect risk and most of our banks should be paying much higher rates as a reflection of their insolvencies. Our Treasury is backstopping the big banks with more new money, artificially-created just for the occasion. China can figure that much out.

    Everything in the US is being glued together with artificial debt financing, and China clearly understands this. Who can fault them for being wary of how these dollars are being created, especially when they are being paid with so many of them?

    Baley, consider this - you and I are still working hard and cashing checks. The Treasury has refinancings all the time, and one can imagine that they can roll their debt issuings over and over, ad infinitum. The problem is what happens when the numbers no longer work. We are there. We were probably already there in 2008, judging from the rash of emergency decisions that were made then.

    Normally, you would think that such a large number of major bank insolvencies would be a problem, but all the government had to do was to press a few magic buttons, and everything "evened out". Right? And since that time, we've had a Congress and a President that have poured free money into pet projects like never before, with no resulting boost to the economy or employment numbers.

    So, while you and I are still cashing checks the government can render everything we've ever worked for meaningless, simply by creating another $16 Trillion or so to make the debt problem less urgent. We don't get to see how and when they do that, or where the extra $Trillions are sent, but they are diluting the value of our savings and earnings as surely as a 2 for 1 stock split dilutes the value of a stock.

    Your gold isn't worth any more or less. Your dollars are worth less and less. Add to your gold and stitch yourself a few extra pockets.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭
    jmski52
    really good summary of the issue and hits the nail right on the head.
    Going out to trade more dollars for PM now!
    Best.
    Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What will be the cost of 400 million people with no medical care? Do they have enough gold to pay for this? Is there enough gold on the planet to pay for this?

    If those 400 MILL people are in the remote areas of China then more than likely their diets are not fast/processed food based as is the diet of most Americans.
    Americans then go to see physicians for prescriptions to help them combat the various diseases brought on by poor diet. Those 400 MILL Chinese might just be better
    off not getting hooked on the processed Western diet followed by 20-50 years of prescriptions for heart and vascular disease, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes,
    insulin resistance/metabolic syndrome/obesity, etc. What's the cost to treat 100-150 MILL Americans with chronically bad diets compounded by drugs that only make things worse in
    the long term? There are 100 MILL Americans that would likely do far better by adopting a typical Asian diet and never seeing a doctor again. But since that won't bring money
    into the HC system, don't expect it to happen within our lifetimes. By sending our fast and processed food companies to China, we're sending them the same rope that we
    started using in the 1950's.

    Relatively speaking there's not enough gold on the planet to do squat long term. The US has its health care hands full just dealing with a rapidly growing obesity epidemic.
    The cost of that will be many multiples of what the rural Chinese will have to deal with.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • TheBigBTheBigB Posts: 942


    << <i>What will be the cost of 400 million people with no medical care? Do they have enough gold to pay for this? Is there enough gold on the planet to pay for this? >>



    I doubt that the Chinese leadership is seriously concerned about this issue. Chairman Mao mentioned many times that perhaps a quarter of the population could be lost without a problem.
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭


    << <i>either never went to or dropped out of college. >>



    enough said. You've answered my question.

    I guess im ready to puke again.
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>No way China will become the world's second largest econony. >>




    China better watch their backs cuz India will be an the run. Better demographics and economically where China was 20 years ago. Also much better relationship with the rest of the world.

    My money going forward would be on India over China. >>



    Send your money to me instead. Less then zero chance. MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    Any pictures yet of these new China bars?
    Avid collector of GSA's.
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>No way China will become the world's second largest econony. >>



    I don't follow. As a country China is already the worlds second largest economy. US, China, Japan and then India.

    MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,100 ✭✭✭✭✭
    MJ, Check in the mail.image

    I think derryb was being facetious.


    But the more I think about it, the more I think the OP may be correct. As China suffocates under its own weight, and spends it reserves on trying to maintain the unsustainable, PMs will be influenced by the Chinese economy----negatively.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

Sign In or Register to comment.