Fine line when buying low pop commons?

bosoxphan

How do you know when to spend the big bucks on low population commons? Seems like there's a fine line between overspending if new cards come on the market in high grade. Or passing on a card to have it locked up in a collection never to come up for sale again. Where's the line?

Vargha

Your checkbook, the population, the number of serious bidders and how often they come on the market. The newer the card however, the more restraint one should exercise.

1960BUCS

I think total number graded should be the main criteria. Compare the card to other cards in its series or set. If it is from say the 3rd series of a set and the average number of cards graded from that series is say 12 and the card in question has only 4 graded then I would pass on paying the premium because more than likely more will be graded. If the average or more have been graded and there are still very few high grade commons available then the premium is probably worth it. Consider the number of serious sets listed in the registry in that year as the number of people needing the card and decide how many high grade copies need to exist before the premium will no longer apply.

FB

I agree with David,

You need to think of what the odds are that its coming up again in the near future. Do you have the cash to win it now? Are there better values available. If its a 50's or early 60's card, your decision is tougher than if its a late 60's on up. For 72's, I know that there are plenty out there. So, I don't go bananas.

Just my two cents...

helionaut

For instance, there is a PSA 8 1975T #617 Rookie Infielders (DeCinces, Trillo) on ebay right now. It's currently bid up to $152.50. My most recent pop report (from 3/8) shows 5 of these cards graded, with 2 8s. I'm not so familiar with the intricacies of that set that I understand that bidding, but it seems that there are at least a couple people on there who no longer have their feet on the ground.

Vargha

The money being realized in these auctions will bring the raw cards out. Even in the 1951 Bowman set, I was stunned that card #289 (Cliff Mapes) had a population of 2 in PSA 8 only two years ago. I bought the third one ever graded PSA 8 and now there are 6 of them! Mind you, that is for a 51 year old card. I imagine that the population of cards from the 70's will soar in top condition as the prices do. Then the prices will drop to a more reasonable level. It's Econ. 101 baby -- supply and demand.

purelyPSA

Don't forget, that 75 topps is Reggie Sanders' rookie too! I wonder when old Reggie decided to cut off those mutton chops.....

Treetop

I can guarantee you that the reason that 1975 card went for that price was its Trillo's rookie card. He's a CUB.........the winner bidder "rseegs@aol.com" is quite the Cub fan. Has bought a few high grade cub cards in the past fom me and he'll pay a preimum, if he decides he wants that card

purelyPSA

Trillo's rookie is '74 as an Athletic.