<< <i>So far it looks like the reversal is holding, I'm still watching for a decisive breech of $1600 to know that we're probably there... >>
Yeah. Today's peak at $1597 marked a 49% retrace of this last drop from $1671. Gold moving back up the last 3 days while base metals and materials (XLB, XME) got hammered was the not the norm. The last time I can think of this divergence was where PM's and gold/silver miners bottomed in October 2008, and the rest of the commods bottomed in Nov/Dec.
<< <i>SLV held $28 today which was a very good sign for the bulls. The miners reversed earlier on heavy volume and held the gains. This is probably a few day rally for the miners. Metals under 1600/30 is another story. Have to get back above. I think the miners outperform metals for the rest of the year. >>
I wrote the above on May 9. Once 28 broke we saw how fast silver broke. But now today SLV is testing that $28 broken support from below which is typical. The bulls now need to show what makes them bulls.
Incredible how quickly the sentiment changed on the markets.
Very nice reversal in GDX today with the metals down. GDX now close to breaking a downtrend. Im still long, after sitting through a brutal downdraft last week.
<< <i>Very nice reversal in GDX today with the metals down. GDX now close to breaking a downtrend. Im still long, after sitting through a brutal downdraft last week. >>
Dumped my NUGT yesterday at $10.52 after GDX ran into the 20 dma (HUI around 413)...and after realizing that gold OE was this Thursday. It didn't help that the 2/5/7yr bond auctions are this week as well. So figured a dump was going to happen either Tues, Wed or Thursday. Bought back 2/3 of that NUGT today at $9.20 after it bounced off $8.95. Gold futures volume was quite high. Maybe we still get a bounce to the HUI 425-450 level again...or not. Next higher gap at $45 for GDX (tiny), then one at $48 (larger). Still more time this week for some downside. For now, GDX will try to backtest the breakdown that occurred weeks ago. It may still put in a much lower low later this year. Miner strength today was good considering SM, Cando, and AUD were all well down. It just may be that with lower oil costs they might get some relief on their rising expenses. Miners actually like a little bit of deflation (ie 2001-2003). Dollar was up strong today though on lousy UUP volume.... while Euro broke below a key support line going all the way back to 2003. Dollar doesn't have much resistance here above the 82 level but it doesn't look all that exciting here either. It seems like it's only going up because the Euro is going down, not because anyone wants to own it. The move down today in GLD and SLV did a nice job in filling their gaps from last Wed's open. Finally, a GDX Aroon(10) cross in the up direction. It's been a month since the last one. If today's dip was the half way point, then projects to around 47. The DUST-buster trade fell apart today as it crashed through its 3 month uptrend line. During the accumulation phase of NUGT the past couple of days the volume ratio of NUGT/DUST was obscene....around 15 to 18 to 1. It's back to a more reasonable 8-9 today.
GDX leading the mining sector. Now 3 days in a row closing above the 20 dma. The 3 ema, 10 ema, and 20 dma are now stacked in a bullish order....first time in 3 months. But that doesn't mean they can't get hammered again next week either. Very low volume today but probably expected on the day before a holiday weekend. Quite a change of pace to see the large miners leading metals up. +15% GDX on this bounce vs. +4% for gold. They've had no problem leading the way down since end of Feb.
There's a tiny gap just above GDX 48 and the 20 dma is at 46.0. So I think those should get tested before the rally ends. Aroon(10) suggests at least 3 more days to reset the bear line to zero. BPGDM is > 5 dma which is also a requirement for an extended up move. BPGDM W%R is already maxed out waiting for RSI to hit 70. Could happen with one more up day. Once maxed out rallies tend to last another 1-3 weeks with 2 being the norm. But those are bull market rallies. We are probably still in bear mode bounce. Another thing that bothers me is the fat gap in Anglogold's chart at 33 from last Friday's jump. The other majors all dipped far enough to fill their gaps, but AU didn't. Even GDX dipped on Monday and Wed. to fill it's Friday gap. Maybe it's nothing.
COT report was pretty tame for gold and silver. I do note that the gold commercial ratio continued to hang quite low at 1.78....a bottom feeding level. The dollar on the other hand was very surprising. Commercials added a whopping +15,000 net shorts this week. Include last week's net +8,000 shorts and they've taken the dollar from a net 14,000 short to a net 37,000 short. Open interest has increased from 46K to 74K. The short to long ratio has jumped from 3 to 5. Clearly the commercials are thinking the dollar's rally has some weak spots left to probe. In 2 weeks comm's have gone from 7K Long & 21K Short....to 9K Long & 46K Short. A massive move. For reference, the banks took the dollar to a net short of 50K contracts in late Dec and early January before turning it down. Open interest peaked at 69,000. Today's report was at 74,500! So the OI is there but maybe another net 13,000 shorts is needed. So while the longer term stochastics suggest the dollar is going to run wild, the banksters are positioning to the other side. Some other analysts have continually mentioned the huge Long position that the commercials are carrying in the Euro.
<< <i>It's too early to call today a reversal but it could be the beginning with the bounce off of $1526.70, I don't have my hopes up just yet. The fractal energy shows that this pattern is at or near its end, although on rare occasions it can keep going. Also at this point, it would appear that all of the selling would have to be complete. Public opinion is about as negative as it gets, though I suppose it could go always go down further. >>
IMHO, and someone else had a similar view, that we're looking at the lows in sentiment we saw in 2008. From my perspective, gold is going to draw out a sideways pattern here in the 1525-1600 range and then move higher. This particular pattern will resemble the pattern that started in mid 2009 that drew out until Spring of 2010, at which point it rallied from the mid 1200s up into the 1500 by mid 2011.
"Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
For Jmksi52. Read this and you'll may want to stay away for good.
In a nutshell areas of rising costs, a shrinking qualified labor pool, geo-political risks, and just plain poor management make gold stocks akin to swimming with the sharks.
For Jmksi52. Read this and you'll may want to stay away for good.
In a nutshell areas of rising costs, a shrinking qualified labor pool, geo-political risks, and just plain poor management make gold stocks akin to swimming with the sharks.
The last time I was into gold mining stocks (30 years ago), I became acutely aware that the management is a paramount consideration in any individual gold mining or gold exploration company. (Which is why I wouldn't go back there, but instead I may go with GDJX - simply **because** of the higher betas, and only in a rising gold price scenario.)
I like mining and oil because they actually represent production of something real. I would consider GDJX in terms of buyout potentials within their portfolio, and I would lean on Casey Research a bit before dipping in my toe. I trust the market to sort some of the individual stock idiosyncracies out, even before I jump into a GDJX pool.
I ain't skeered. Then again, I ain't done it yet.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Comments
<< <i>So far it looks like the reversal is holding, I'm still watching for a decisive breech of $1600 to know that we're probably there... >>
Yeah. Today's peak at $1597 marked a 49% retrace of this last drop from $1671. Gold moving back up the last 3 days while base metals and materials (XLB, XME) got
hammered was the not the norm. The last time I can think of this divergence was where PM's and gold/silver miners bottomed in October 2008, and the rest of the commods
bottomed in Nov/Dec.
<< <i>SLV held $28 today which was a very good sign for the bulls. The miners reversed earlier on heavy volume and held the gains. This is probably a few day rally for the miners. Metals under 1600/30 is another story. Have to get back above. I think the miners outperform metals for the rest of the year. >>
I wrote the above on May 9. Once 28 broke we saw how fast silver broke. But now today SLV is testing that $28 broken support from below which is typical. The bulls now need to show what makes them bulls.
Incredible how quickly the sentiment changed on the markets.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
we are back above the 72 hour ema on the hourly lets see if it can remain above it we will be in a sustainable uptrend for a week or so.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Very nice reversal in GDX today with the metals down. GDX now close to breaking a downtrend. Im still long, after sitting through a brutal downdraft last week. >>
Dumped my NUGT yesterday at $10.52 after GDX ran into the 20 dma (HUI around 413)...and after realizing that gold OE was this Thursday. It didn't help that the 2/5/7yr bond auctions are this week as well. So figured a dump was going to happen either Tues, Wed or Thursday. Bought back 2/3 of that NUGT today at $9.20 after it bounced off $8.95. Gold futures volume was quite high. Maybe we still get a bounce to the HUI 425-450 level again...or not. Next higher gap at $45 for GDX (tiny), then one at $48 (larger). Still more time this week for some downside. For now, GDX will try to backtest the breakdown that occurred weeks ago. It may still put in a much lower low later this year. Miner strength today was good considering SM, Cando, and AUD were all well down. It just may be that with lower oil costs they might get some relief on their rising expenses. Miners actually like a little bit of deflation (ie 2001-2003). Dollar was up strong today though on lousy UUP volume.... while Euro broke below a key support line going all the way back to 2003. Dollar doesn't have much resistance here above the 82 level but it doesn't look all that exciting here either. It seems like it's only going up because the Euro is going down, not because anyone wants to own it. The move down today in GLD and SLV did a nice job in filling their gaps from last Wed's open. Finally, a GDX Aroon(10) cross in the up direction. It's been a month since the last one. If today's dip was the half way point, then projects to around 47. The DUST-buster trade fell apart today as it crashed through its 3 month uptrend line. During the accumulation phase of NUGT the past couple of days the volume ratio of NUGT/DUST was obscene....around 15 to 18 to 1. It's back to a more reasonable 8-9 today.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
But that doesn't mean they can't get hammered again next week either. Very low volume today but probably expected on the day before a holiday weekend. Quite a change
of pace to see the large miners leading metals up. +15% GDX on this bounce vs. +4% for gold. They've had no problem leading the way down since end of Feb.
There's a tiny gap just above GDX 48 and the 20 dma is at 46.0. So I think those should get tested before the rally ends. Aroon(10) suggests at least 3 more days to reset the bear line to zero. BPGDM is > 5 dma which is also a requirement for an extended up move. BPGDM W%R is already maxed out waiting for RSI to hit 70. Could happen with one more up day. Once maxed out rallies tend to last another 1-3 weeks with 2 being the norm. But those are bull market rallies. We are probably still in bear mode bounce. Another thing that bothers me is the fat gap in Anglogold's chart at 33 from last Friday's jump. The other majors all dipped far enough to fill their gaps, but AU didn't. Even GDX dipped on Monday and Wed. to fill it's Friday gap. Maybe it's nothing.
COT report was pretty tame for gold and silver. I do note that the gold commercial ratio continued to hang quite low at 1.78....a bottom feeding level. The dollar on the other hand was very surprising. Commercials added a whopping +15,000 net shorts this week. Include last week's net +8,000 shorts and they've taken the dollar from a net 14,000 short to a net 37,000 short. Open interest has increased from 46K to 74K. The short to long ratio has jumped from 3 to 5. Clearly the commercials are thinking the dollar's rally has some weak spots left to probe. In 2 weeks comm's have gone from 7K Long & 21K Short....to 9K Long & 46K Short. A massive move. For reference, the banks took the dollar to a net short of 50K contracts in late Dec and early January before turning it down. Open interest peaked at 69,000. Today's report was at 74,500! So the OI is there but maybe another net 13,000 shorts is needed. So while the longer term stochastics suggest the dollar is going to run wild, the banksters are positioning to the other side. Some other analysts have continually mentioned the huge Long position that the commercials are carrying in the Euro.
<< <i>It's too early to call today a reversal but it could be the beginning with the bounce off of $1526.70, I don't have my hopes up just yet. The fractal energy shows that this pattern is at or near its end, although on rare occasions it can keep going. Also at this point, it would appear that all of the selling would have to be complete. Public opinion is about as negative as it gets, though I suppose it could go always go down further.
IMHO, and someone else had a similar view, that we're looking at the lows in sentiment we saw in 2008. From my perspective, gold is going to draw out a sideways pattern here in the 1525-1600 range and then move higher.
This particular pattern will resemble the pattern that started in mid 2009 that drew out until Spring of 2010, at which point it rallied from the mid 1200s up into the 1500 by mid 2011.
<< <i>Sold tomorrows GDX 45 call against position just after the open. >>
Calls expired so I kept the premium and the ETF. Sold this weeks 45 call as I think there is considerable resistance in the 46 area.
Another attempt at 28 on SLV. Its gonna need Advil soon.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Sold tomorrows GDX 45 call against position just after the open. >>
Calls expired so I kept the premium and the ETF. Sold this weeks 45 call as I think there is considerable resistance in the 46 area. >>
Bought back the call. Made 83% of what I could have. Maybe the FED or ECB does something stupid tonight.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
For Jmksi52. Read this and you'll may want to stay away for good.
In a nutshell areas of rising costs, a shrinking qualified labor pool, geo-political risks, and just plain poor management make gold stocks akin to swimming with the sharks.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Sold tomorrows GDX 45 call against position just after the open. >>
Calls expired so I kept the premium and the ETF. Sold this weeks 45 call as I think there is considerable resistance in the 46 area. >>
Bought back the call. Made 83% of what I could have. Maybe the FED or ECB does something stupid tonight. >>
Sold todays 46 call. Should expire as I think we have seen the highs for the day. Probably shoulda sold the 45.50 though.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
In a nutshell areas of rising costs, a shrinking qualified labor pool, geo-political risks, and just plain poor management make gold stocks akin to swimming with the sharks.
The last time I was into gold mining stocks (30 years ago), I became acutely aware that the management is a paramount consideration in any individual gold mining or gold exploration company. (Which is why I wouldn't go back there, but instead I may go with GDJX - simply **because** of the higher betas, and only in a rising gold price scenario.)
I like mining and oil because they actually represent production of something real. I would consider GDJX in terms of buyout potentials within their portfolio, and I would lean on Casey Research a bit before dipping in my toe. I trust the market to sort some of the individual stock idiosyncracies out, even before I jump into a GDJX pool.
I ain't skeered. Then again, I ain't done it yet.
I knew it would happen.