U.S. Palladium Bullion coin?
CaptHenway
Posts: 31,544 ✭✭✭✭✭
There is a thread on these over on U.S. coins, and I just posted this there. I am copying it here for discussion.
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The joke is, the study is being/will be done in the current environment with the following conditions applying:
A: No U.S. palladium coin exists;
B: Demand for palladium in the U.S. is relatively light; and
C: Palladium is currently trading in a range we shall call "X."
Let's say they do a wonderfully competent study and determine that the coin should be struck. That changes condition A.
Condition B would change because some people would buy it just because it is an American coin, and other people would buy it just because it was something new. I remember when Canada introduced its Palladium Maple Leaf; we sold a lot of them at the coin shop because it was something new. Same way with the American Buffalo gold coin. We sold a couple hundred of them in the first few months. Now most people buy eagles again, though perhaps it is selling well in the overseas market it was supposedly ceated for.
Condition C would change upwards before the coin was first offered because of the anticipated demand. Let's say for the sake of argument that Palladium increases by $150/oz. before the first coin is sold, so that it is now X+$150. How does this affect the demand for the coins which was calculated back when Palladium was at X?
Being an old fart, I remember how the spot price of gold almost doubled to near $200/oz. back in 1974 in anticipation of the increased demand everybody was sure to develop once Americans were allowed to legally own gold again on Dec. 31, 1974. However, the demand was very slow to develop (we had gotten out of the habit), and gold fell back close to $100/oz. before things changed.
Therefore, the decision will have to be made based upon conditions that do not exist at the time the decision is made, and will only exist if the decision is made a certain way.
Aren't you glad that you are not one of the people making the decision?
TD
--
The joke is, the study is being/will be done in the current environment with the following conditions applying:
A: No U.S. palladium coin exists;
B: Demand for palladium in the U.S. is relatively light; and
C: Palladium is currently trading in a range we shall call "X."
Let's say they do a wonderfully competent study and determine that the coin should be struck. That changes condition A.
Condition B would change because some people would buy it just because it is an American coin, and other people would buy it just because it was something new. I remember when Canada introduced its Palladium Maple Leaf; we sold a lot of them at the coin shop because it was something new. Same way with the American Buffalo gold coin. We sold a couple hundred of them in the first few months. Now most people buy eagles again, though perhaps it is selling well in the overseas market it was supposedly ceated for.
Condition C would change upwards before the coin was first offered because of the anticipated demand. Let's say for the sake of argument that Palladium increases by $150/oz. before the first coin is sold, so that it is now X+$150. How does this affect the demand for the coins which was calculated back when Palladium was at X?
Being an old fart, I remember how the spot price of gold almost doubled to near $200/oz. back in 1974 in anticipation of the increased demand everybody was sure to develop once Americans were allowed to legally own gold again on Dec. 31, 1974. However, the demand was very slow to develop (we had gotten out of the habit), and gold fell back close to $100/oz. before things changed.
Therefore, the decision will have to be made based upon conditions that do not exist at the time the decision is made, and will only exist if the decision is made a certain way.
Aren't you glad that you are not one of the people making the decision?
TD
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
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Comments
2005 -- 62,919
2006 -- 68,707
2007 -- 25,109
2009 –- 40,000
There are a number of modern U.S. coins with lower mintages (the platinum proofs, etc.). Unless palladium prices shoot through the roof, I think they could easily sell over 100,000 in the first year, especially given the novelty of the coin and the much bigger U.S. collector base compared to Canada. In future years, it's harder to predict.
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I like the different curve on Palladium, to buy at different times and different dips. I like the price range.
Just don't know how well I can sell some later. Spot and pre range doesn't mean much
if that market is too thin. I was thinking I might dabble a bit, but why if the other PMs exist.
Coin wise:
Of course it depends on good choosing.
<< <i>I found the following mintages for the Canadian palladium maple leaf:
2005 -- 62,919
2006 -- 68,707
2007 -- 25,109
2009 –- 40,000
>>
The 2007 should be approx 15K.
I found a website that shows 9K for 2008 but I wasn't aware of any produced that year.
Having said that, I would love an American Palladium coin.
WSJ yesterday had an article saying that will result in positive movements in the palladium market due to increased demand.
Seems like a good idea to mint palladium eagles or whatever.
Best.
<< <i>I like the palladium maples (over Palladium in bar form) although I wonder if they have ever been confused with silver maples? >>
That would be a nice surprise on an ebay purchase.
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