how long can a bull market run?
secondrepublic
Posts: 2,619 ✭✭✭
There seems to be a lot of talk about the precious metals bull run, which began around 2000, being "long in the tooth" and therefore due to end soon. Is there any research on how long bull runs typically last? It seems to me that 12 years doesn't mean it's over. Didn't stocks have a 18-year bull run from about 1982 to 2000? Aren't we still in the midst of a 30-year bull market in US Treasuries? And finally, didn't the previous PM bull run really begin in the early- to mid-1960s, when silver price increases caused the US to stop making silver coinage in 1964, and governments set up the London Gold Pool to control gold prices? If all that is true, don't we probably have at least a couple more years and blow-off top ahead of us, like previous bull markets?
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
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Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
eventually, the constant drumbeat that it will happen, and that right soon, grows tiresome and folks "get busy livin', or get busy dyin'", to quote Red and Brooks from Shawshank
It is starting to look like those who want to hold metals, hold enough metals (I know I have enough, you probably do, too) and when there are no new buyers to support current prices, much less fuel a continued rise, like a tree growing up to the sky?
i dunno
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
There are lots and lots of extremely stable companies with rock solid balance sheets that pay fat dividends. Old people like to get a check in the mail. Gold doesnt pay dividends. And speculators are a flightly bunch. This aint rocket science.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
China is an iffy deal. Their GDP growth is equal to their counterfeit quotient --- Kinda like a criminal having $5,000 in his pocket after he just robbed a liquor store.
The little choo-choo train that is gold is having a hard time returning to that $2,000 summit.
There is no shame being long the stock market and pm's. The shiny stuff is never more then 20% of my personal port.
<Old people like to get a check in the mail. Gold doesnt pay dividends>
Old people are afraid of the stock market. There is still a ton of retail money on the sidelines. While this move in the stock market is quite real it's with really low volume and without conviction. It bears watching. You have a lot of companies buying their own stock. In the meantime I'm enjoying the ride. Follow the tide. It is what it is. It's really hard convincing a lot of folks to get back in the market after what they went through in 2008. They have been told cash is king. Time will tell.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>To answer the OP's question twenty years would not out of the question.
There is no shame being long the stock market and pm's. The shiny stuff is never more then 20% of my personal port.
<Old people like to get a check in the mail. Gold doesnt pay dividends>
Old people are afraid of the stock market. There is still a ton of retail money on the sidelines. While this move in the stock market is quite real it's with really low volume and without conviction. It bears watching. You have a lot of companies buying their own stock. In the meantime I'm enjoying the ride. Follow the tide. It is what it is. It's really hard convincing a lot of folks to get back in the market after what they went through in 2008. They have been told cash is king. Time will tell.
MJ >>
Did you know that most large dividend paying companies are trading at ALL TIME HIGHs when dividends are included? Smart $$$$ is in the market. Scared money isnt. Scared money always underperforms in the long run. I expect the history to repeat. You should know better about volume trends. I think the low to average volume is a good sign. Because heavy volume usually occurs at the end of moves. Check out any chart, or just start with GLD in Aug.
PMs being "held down"? I think rather "propped up".
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I think that this will be a classic run-up to an election. In my opinion, the Fed will be a-pumpin', and everything will be lookin' good until about August 31st.
When the leaves start to turn colours, people start to sober up. Unless we get some unpleasant surprises related to world events, nobody will care until then.
Remember that 2013 brings in a whole new tax structure unless major political moves happen this November & December. It's not just that obamacare contains several tentacles involving higher taxes, but several other tax hikes are in the works now as well - including those on dividends and capital gains. Businesses and stocks & bonds investors will all see this coming before the taxes have their impacts, and the markets will be set up for a major problem. It's the resultant change in investor psychology that worries me most, especially because it can change quickly.
Next year, Cash probably will be King unless Ben hyperinflates in order to compensate for flagging economic numbers - which is why I'm staying in physical metals with cash on the side.
Europe isn't fixed, neither is social security, medicare or the financial system. I'm aware of more people are facing layoffs now, and their finances are already in shambles - this is not geographically isolated.
It's true that the stock market climbs a wall of worry and that the money is made early on, when people are gun-shy about taking risk. I think this is comparable to one of the stock market rallies during the Great Depression - there were several. I think this is one more cycle of "lather, rinse, repeat".
Until the big banks are brought to heel, nobody wins.
I knew it would happen.
I was just pointing out the obvious for folks playing the board game at home. Scared money is usually money that should be just lit on fire.
I'm pretty sure I don't agree that this low volume move is necessarily good. I like conviction. If sideline money starts moving in then the market could rocket.
<PMs being "held down"? I think rather "propped up">
I'm not sure where this came from and I don't want to be associated with the quote. I normally and intentionally stay clear of this subject matter and have my own feelings on this. It's a small market especially silver and it "could' be easily manipulated up or down. One of the only plausible reasons that gold would be propped up if is large institutions needed to mitzy out of their positions over time and they organized an orderly exit strategy. I also guess the Chinese could put a floor under the physical market. However, all one really has to do to time the market is watch what 80 dealers at a monthly show in Illinois are doing as they are the true market makers. Everything else is pure conjecture.
FYI- I've been short silver that past week or so and covered yesterday. I'm long now just for a quick trade. However it has just stalled here. I will close this out today no matter what as I'm heading overseas today. FYII- I just got back from two weeks in Europe. Milan, Brussels, Antwerp, Paris and London. Outside of London Europe is very gloomy.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The "held down" quote was referenced to derryb, not you. Sorry if you took it that way.
I expected so much from Europe. Would be interested in conditions (sentiment) in Germany. Any thoughts? Australia appears to be going backwards as well--in expecting some good volatility in copper over the next few weeks.
Cheapest and most productive assets in the world are in the USA. Money will flow here.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Check back with me in 10 years.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>MJ,
The "held down" quote was referenced to derryb, not you. Sorry if you took it that way. >>
No worries. I just didn't want to be attached to it! MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>As long as the ink stays full in the presses. >>
and the paper holds up, which ever comes first
My daddy taught me the value of a dollar. He never said it was zero. He said having a dollar (or many of them) result from a person's purposeful effort to earn and grow them.
He also taught me never to just sit on a dollar (or any inanimate, inherently useless object) and hope it grows. A dollar, or anything else, is only useful if it is put to use
It is in no way surprising that a thing allowed to sit, unused, becomes worth less due to the passage of time and the growth of everything else that does something
a dollar is a tool, nothing more, nothing less. It is up to the tool-using ape to decide how to use the tool, or not. To stare in frustration at the tool, or to curse it, or to decry how many tools are being made, would not be the way my daddy would choose to use it. Nor would it be mine.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Okay then. Gold or a dollar are both *potentially useful*, even when not in use.
But is the debate whether or not you should keep something in reserve or deploy all of it? And if you don't deploy all of it, at what point are you being irresponsible by not plowing it back into the economy?
If you think that your savings will erode more by putting the money into stocks, you have the right to find your own lifeboat - don't you?
To stare in frustration at the tool, or to curse it, or to decry how many tools are being made, would not be the way my daddy would choose to use it.
I see the analogy differently. I find that some tools are now very cheaply made, don't work well, and only last a short time - when they used to be made to last a lifetime. I occasionally find myself buying the same tool every few years because the tools are now poorly made and represent a poor investment for the money. Our dollar is now very much like a cheaply-made tool.
Please note the potato peeler I grew up with (pictured on the right), made of hardened steel and built to last. Now see the same potato peeler design, made by the same company over 50 years later, with cheap aluminum alloy, slotted sides to use less metal, a worthless "eye" remover that isn't even a blade (pictured on the left), not to mention that the new potato peeler doesn't even peel very well. The old one still works like a charm.
The company had "no comment" when I found them on the internet and voiced my complaint. Would your daddy choose the cheap peeler that doesn't work worth a darn? I don't think so.
I knew it would happen.
Mama peels the potatoes
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The real question is how much you can weather through, and if you are trying to make a killing, or have it as a hedge for when the dollar value goes south. It really affect the answers.
Nothing to say it's not at the top in this election year, and if a few big things happen, by the end of the year it could dip $500 bucks.
Anyone can enjoy a climb. So, could you bear through such a bid drop until it comes back again?, if ever? Do you have the time? Will it keep you awake until you do something rash or foolish? Or can you weather the storm for a long time?
If you are hedgeing, you expect it to swing with the dollar value, like two glasses of water, pouring back and forth between the glasses.
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I think it will creep higher, but I also expect big dips (drops). Hard to imagine it at $3000, but then, we could not imagine it being $1700 ish now.
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Ok, let's try this. Since we're having a somewhat recovery and China's manufacturing activity has shrank for a fifth straight month? I mean, if retail is up here, how much of it is from China? >>
Doesn't look like even a "somewhat" recovery. And this is using "their" data:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I believe the bull run will be extended as we see more realistic trading platforms become available and the COMEX looses its grip on price controls. >>
derryb ... do you still subscribe to your statement from March of 2012? If we are in a gold bull run, I would hate to see what a bear run would look like
<< <i>
<< <i>I believe the bull run will be extended as we see more realistic trading platforms become available and the COMEX looses its grip on price controls. >>
derryb ... do you still subscribe to your statement from March of 2012? If we are in a gold bull run, I would hate to see what a bear run would look like
I still believe we are going to see new highs. The nice "bear" turn in 09 didn't turn out to be the bear run that many expected. Since fundamentals remain intact I believe the long term bull run is intact.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I agree, but my time frame is on the long side; how about yours. Take care. jws
For one, silver rallied from 1993 to 2011......18 years. Gold would have probably done the same thing but ran into the 1990's Gold Carry trade and the Rubin/Summers strong dollar
policy along the way....forcing a lower low in 1999. In looking back to the last century silver actually rallied from 1932 to 1980.....48 years. A smaller rally within that was from
1947-1952 to 1980. Depending on one's time frame these rallies can last a long time.
<< <i>"I still believe we are going to see new highs. The nice "bear" turn in 09 didn't turn out to be the bear run that many expected. Since fundamentals remain intact I believe the long term bull run is intact". derryb
I agree, but my time frame is on the long side; how about yours. Take care. jws >>
Since my money in metals is not needed for anything else, time is not pressing. However, I plan on cashing in at a very nice profit within the next five years, but only if dollars are still worth having.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>"I still believe we are going to see new highs. The nice "bear" turn in 09 didn't turn out to be the bear run that many expected. Since fundamentals remain intact I believe the long term bull run is intact". derryb
I agree, but my time frame is on the long side; how about yours. Take care. jws >>
I believe we will see all-time highs set within 5 years also. In USD terms of course.