Your opinion of the 1909-S VDB market future

oneor11

Hi all,

I found a nice MS64 RB 1909-S VDB Lincoln cent that I'd like to use as a type coin for the Wheat 1909 - 1958 slot in my 1793 - 1964 circulation strike type set. I like the coin and story around it. When I was a kid, this was the first coin my dad told me about when I expressed an interest in collecting. But I am feeling a bit of a challenge separating myself from 2000+ dollars. But I will if I have to I suppose.

What do you guys think the market future of this coin is? I don't buy coins for an investment at all, but wow it's tough to see almost 13,000 1909-S VDB coins certified by PCGS (plus some unknown number in NGC), a 61,000 total extant estimate, and over 80 sitting in Collector's Corner and not think that the coin may be overvalued at current market price. Do you experts see it only going up in value?


Jacob

TomB

The 1909-S VDB might be the most famous coin in US numismatics. Not only that, but it might be the most heavily pushed coin as a key date in US numismatics, too. The extant population is huge, but the demand has always been able to make the coin liquid at a fairly high price. If you want the coin then you should be aware that it will likely always be easy to sell at some level, but if you want to hold off you should at least take comfort in knowing that there should always be a ready population of pieces at all grade levels for you to obtain later.

shorecoll

It's just one of those coins. FYI, I've been waiting for 15 years for an 1815 Bust half in AU to drop to a "reasonable" price. They are now at $7500 and I've been waiting since they were $2k. I think I lost that game.

Sonorandesertrat

<< <i>The 1909-S VDB might be the most famous coin in US numismatics. Not only that, but it might be the most heavily pushed coin as a key date in US numismatics, too. The extant population is huge, but the demand has always been able to make the coin liquid at a fairly high price. If you want the coin then you should be aware that it will likely always be easy to sell at some level, but if you want to hold off you should at least take comfort in knowing that there should always be a ready population of pieces at all grade levels for you to obtain later. >>

yellowjacket

This is why the 09-S VDB is the last coin for me to add to my registry set. It's not the most expensive; however, I'm just biding my time until I find the one I want at the price I like.

And there are many very nice, scarce Lincolns you may buy that aren't over $2000 that would make a nice addition to a type set. But if it HAS to be the 09-S VDB, then don't buy it as an investment, buy it because you want it.

Garrow

Lakesammman

You don't want my advice.

I was buying nice MS66Rd's in the mid 1990's for $2800-$3000 and didn't see any real future in them, so sold them.

lasvegasteddy

my opinion of the 09-s vdb...well...it changed through the years shall i say...as a kid though...man did i dream about git'n one
today...not my coin...at all...yeah it'd be great to find in truly unsearch stock to sell is about all
"that's the crowd i'm in"

tightbudget

They've slumped a bit since 2009-2010, but that's mainly because of the hype they received for the 100th anniversary of the Lincoln cent and the 200th anniversary of Lincoln's birth.

As for the long term, I see it holding steady for the next several years, maybe a small increase could be likely if there is renewed interest. If you're looking to pick one up, take your time as others have said.

illini420

I agree that prices on the average coins have dropped in the past couple of years, but for the rock solid examples of a given grade you can still get top dollar. For example, there are hundreds of gem MS65RD examples out there. Some of them are really junky with lots of spots or aren't really even RD coins anymore. Of course, some of them are just awesome too. You can buy the lower end examples for as low as $4000 or so, and you can pay as high as $6500 and up for something really special. In 2009 that spread was quite a bit tighter but it seems that the demand for these coins at pretty much any grade is, and has been strong since the year they were minted. Same goes for the MS64RB grade... there are plenty of ugly 64RBs and there are plenty of awesome examples. As long as you're being patient and hunting down one of the good 64RBs then I think you'll be much better protected than if you just get the first one you find or the "best deal" you can find. Good luck.

AnkurJ

In that I feel the value will remain stagnant for a long time to come.

oneor11

Thanks for all the input guys. I think I will take your advice and hold off and be patient. And nice pic AnkurJ. My wife saw it and casually mentioned that would be my heartbeat if the 09-S VDB came in the mail heh. For some reason she doesn't get excited about coins unless the date begins with "17".

Jacob

ambro51

The coin has legitimate Rarity in only TWO grades...PCGS MS 66RD and MS67 ( and + grades also). This puts the population at less than 200 coins. They will always be the ones that collectors will upgrade to

Walkerguy21D

Frankly, for a type set, I'd buy a gem 09 VDB, and use the savings for a choice large cent or some early bust piece. Much more potential with coins like that, IMO.
If you really want an 09S VDB, I'd consider looking for a nice AU 58, one with no spots and some red highlights. Half the price of a 64, and will always command some kind of offer when it's time to sell.

ambro51

Yeah you Don't buy these things sight unseen regardless of the grade or holder. Lots of uglee 64 and 65 coins

lkeigwin

I have more faith in the value of my attractive 65RD S-VDB than most any other coin in my collection.

Sure, I have pricier, scarcer coins more interesting to me and other senior collectors. But for all the reasons Tom cited there's no question that there will always be a strong market for it.

You can wait, knowing there will always be good examples to buy. You'll just pay a bit more for them over time.
Lance.

joebb21

Prices for the coin have fallen tremendiously in the last 2 years with the discovery (or unrolling) of a couple of unopend rolls.
I know one dealer that in the last year sent in 2 shotgun type rolls to pcgs and got many 65 and 66 RD coins.

RYK

I have never been a huge fan. I wonder that as collectors who grew up searching for them in pocket change die off, if there will be a decline in interest.

MidLifeCrisis

<< <i>a type coin for the Wheat 1909 - 1958 slot >>


While I acknowledge the validity in TomB's post above, I'd much rather have a nice 1955 Doubled Die Obverse Lincoln Cent as my type coin for that slot.

roadrunner

<< <i>It's just one of those coins. FYI, I've been waiting for 15 years for an 1815 Bust half in AU to drop to a "reasonable" price. They are now at $7500 and I've been waiting since they were $2k. I think I lost that game. >>



An AU 1815 (or even a F-XF) has little in common with a 1909-s VDB. There aren't enough nice 1815's to go around and the number of bust half collectors keep on growing. I would imagine that the #of total Lincoln collectors is barely growing and possibly on the decline. There are more than enough s-vdb's to meet the current and future demand of all collectors. The high prices are possibly due to the demand that dealers add by trying to keep extras in inventory. If dealers all had to unload their 93-s dollars and 09-s vdb cents all at once....look out below!

pennyannie

<< <i>I have neve been a huge fan. I wonder that as collectors who grew up searching for them in pocket change die off, if there will be a decline in interest. >>




I too think the above may be the case. I am about 50 years old and i see things that i had or wanted when i was a kid bringing good money for low priced goods, but doubt there will be a lot of intrest in 20 more years for a lot of it.

My parents gave me a nylon 66 remington 22 when i was about 10 years old, they cost around 50 bucks new. I see them at every gun show for about 400 if fairly clean and 250 for the ones that lead a rough life. I am always tempted to sell the 4 i have...

Overdate

<< <i>

<< <i>a type coin for the Wheat 1909 - 1958 slot >>


While I acknowledge the validity in TomB's post above, I'd much rather have a nice 1955 Doubled Die Obverse Lincoln Cent as my type coin for that slot. >>


Or how about a 1943 bronze? (It would make a great upgrade for my 1958-D!)

originalisbest

Personally, I'd rather have my 09-S VDB than an 1815 half - don't care about and never really have cared for bust halves. Have a really nice common one for type purposes but that's it. I would wonder about the idea of growing bust half collectors vs. lincoln cent collectors - the lincoln cent is far more accessible and if I were pressed on the issue, probably all coin collectors generally are on the decline, never mind delineating them by favored denomination. That's OK though, turn to absolutely any field of collecting and you'll hear the exact same complaint from the "old guard", without fail.

droopyd

No downside, that's for sure.

joeykoins

Oh yes,the 1909svdb. Let me put it this way. My "Wife" agreed that I should get it.My 'wife"!!! That's all I'm going to say. I have one in a PCGS holder. In fine12.

streeter

It may not work for your purpose but I can say from personal experience, the wheatie lincoln that I have never grown tired of looking at is the 55DDO.

SeattleSlammer

I was just going to comment that for similar money I'd much rather snag a nice 55 DDO.

ClosedLoop

Does anyone think these might go up in price when the mint either
Changes the composition or stops making the cent altogether and sparks a whole
New generation of cent collectors?

NewParadigm

I would rather have a 1955ddo.

coolest

You need several Lincoln cent coins for the type set: 09-S VDB, 1955/55 DDO, 1943-S, 1972/72 DDO.
That is where I stoped. It took me a few minutes to pick the 55DDO over the 14-D, as my key date wheat cent.

Nic

<< <i>You don't want my advice.

I was buying nice MS66Rd's in the mid 1990's for $2800-$3000 and didn't see any real future in them, so sold them. >>



I was buying MS66 RB's a bit later and did the same thing.

K

braddick

<< <i>I have never been a huge fan. I wonder that as collectors who grew up searching for them in pocket change die off, if there will be a decline in interest. >>



I don't think so.
Those collectors who grew up searching for 1793 large cents from pocket change have died off yet the coin remains popular.

I like the 1909-S VDB.
As a youngster I hungered for this date to complete my worn Lincoln cent album.

As an adult I still admire the ANACS PO1 (details) I own along with the PCGS (SecurePlus) MS64 RED.
They'l be some of the last coins I sell, if I really ever do.

Overdate

<< <i>You need several Lincoln cent coins for the type set: 09-S VDB, 1955/55 DDO, 1943-S, 1972/72 DDO.
That is where I stoped. It took me a few minutes to pick the 55DDO over the 14-D, as my key date wheat cent. >>


Why not both? The 14-D has no designer initials and the 55DDO should show a smallish VDB under Lincoln's shoulder (maybe two of them?).

cameron12x

<< <i>Frankly, for a type set, I'd buy a gem 09 VDB, and use the savings for a choice large cent or some early bust piece. Much more potential with coins like that, IMO.
If you really want an 09S VDB, I'd consider looking for a nice AU 58, one with no spots and some red highlights. Half the price of a 64, and will always command some kind of offer when it's time to sell. >>

+1. This is the approach I would take.