Inflation: Not as low as you think
Spooly
Posts: 2,108 ✭✭✭
Si vis pacem, para bellum
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
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Thanks for posting the article.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>All depends on who is counting and how they count. Official numbers are hard to compare over time because the method to calculate them mysteriously gets changed to give a lower percentage. Liars figure and figures lie. >>
Indeed. This reminds me of a quote attributed to "Uncle Joe" Stalin. It goes like this: It does not matter who does the voting. What matters is who does the counting.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
Anybody notice the girl scout cookies, thin mints in particular, are about 8-10 cookies less than last year.
<< <i>The new hidden non-inflation: you're losing ounces of product in the same size box for the same price. But we won't count that since that's not what the sheeple need to hear right now.
Anybody notice the girl scout cookies, thin mints in particular, are about 8-10 cookies less than last year. >>
Thats been going on for quite some time. Companies think consumers are less likely to notice smaller packages then higher prices but the prices eventually go up and the packages stay smaller so we get both.
<< <i>All depends on who is counting and how they count. Official numbers are hard to compare over time because the method to calculate them mysteriously gets changed to give a lower percentage. Liars figure and figures lie. >>
Sure enough. Using 1990 CPI methodology gives a number just above 6%. And using 1980 methods produces a number just above 10%.
Deflation is built into official govt inflation statistics while inflation is built into GDP stats. Would we expect it any other way?
Chips Ahoy cookies back in 1969 came in a pretty robust full size bag with cookies about 30-40% larger and with 2X as many chips. Cost was around $2-$3 as I recall.
Even today's bag is a midget compared to the original one. And cookie man is probably 30% fatter than he was back then (the only true inflation).
Box of 20
<< <i>I will not even buy the Reese Peanut Butter Cups anymore. What a joke. Not worth putting in your mouth anymore. Too much effort for such a small crumb. >>
<< <i>The one that really annoys me is the shrinkage of Cadbury Creme Eggs. It's well documented. Cereal, too. It's happening everywhere. >>
We stopped buying commercial cereal. The muesli and granola we make ourselves is not loaded with sugar, fat and salt. We save a bundle and it tastes much better.
Unfortunately we have not worked out a substitute for Cadbury Creme Eggs.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
What goes up...
The fact is inflation was about 2% for the 10 years since this thread was created.
Maybe the NEXT decade will be different but looking back, this was a waste of cyberspace.
We won't have to wait a decade. Another year of this and the damage will be enormous.
Those in the bottom half of income/wealth in the U.S. are being hammered by inflation. Doubt that includes many people on CU Forums but times are tough for a great many people.
Count yourself lucky if you're above that median income listed above or have a modest net worth north of 6 figures. 170 million Americans don't and are struggling and being hammered from all sides.
The really inflation is much more then announced at least 75 % then publish.
NEVER ARGUE WITH AN IDIOT.
FIRST THEY WILL DRAG YOU DOWN TO THEIR LEVEL.
THEN, THEY WILL BEAT YOU WITH EXPERIENCE.
MARK TWAIN
But, but it's transitory.
fka renman95, Sep 2005, 7,000 posts
It depends on which CPI index you use........the "real" one or one of the fake ones.
Here's info on it. Inflation over the past 10-15 years has been averaging about 10% if you go by the 1980 CPI-U methodology which is currently 13%.. It peaked at 17% a few months ago.....higher than the 1980 peak of 15%. If govt stats don't lie why aren't we using the 1980 or 1990 models of CPI-U? 30 yr Govt T-Bonds were paying upper teens % back in 1980/81. That's high inflation. And using the same CPI model of that period.....we exceeded the 79/80 peak. The US Govt had to pay those high interest rates in 1980 because unlike today they didn't have $150+ TRILLION in interest rate swaps/derivatives to help keep the percentage "low." That's the biggest difference from then to now.
The only waste of cyber space was your unsupported comment. There's always more to govt stats than meet the eye. Accept them at face value at your own risk.
Click on the "inflation" charts for CPI info.
shadowstats.com/alternate_data
Because that's when they used to play music on MTV? When folk read magazines? When David Hasselhoff was the man!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Rumour has it he still is the man in some parts of Germany. RGDS!
I don't think you understand economic statistics. I started out as a Fed Watcher and compiler of government data so I know all about inflation adjustments, cost of goods vs. cost of living, hedonics, etc. Yes, changes in methodologies, substitutions, hedonics, etc....are all interesting. I've read the debates for 40 years.
You can't use inflation methodologies from a different time period. In 1960 it took 150 hours at the average hourly manufacturing wage to buy a washer & dryer. It takes about 30 of those same wage hours to buy a modern washer & dryer.
A laptop in 2000 cost $2,000 for B- or C+ performance. A laptop in 2023 cost $800 for A+ performance.
Interest rates swaps and derivatives do not "keep" rates low. That's not how they work in a modern financial economy. You focus on notional values and not market values which are 1/10th to 1/30th that amount and largely NET OUT. The futures and options markets do not cause the DJIA and SPX to go up.
The fact of the matter is that if you made financial decisions based on the factors you cite, you'd be fired as a professional money manager in short order. The market doesn't care about politics, race, skin color, ideology, height, sex, sports teams, etc...etc...etc. You can be RIGHT about the valuation and the economy and the Fed and interest rates and the global situation....and if you get the market WRONG, that's all that matters.
The numbers and links you cite -- while interesting -- are simply not valid or relevant for modern day investing in PMs, gold, bonds, or stocks.
Sorry........
The numbers in the Median Minimum Wage chart are cherry-picked and all over the place. No median home price is $450,000 except near major metropolitan areas like SanFran, NYC, etc. Gas prices are 30% cheaper. Movie prices didn't jump that much from 2019 to 2021.
Starting with 1975 before the Carter Inflation Years also distorts the charts.
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-deconstructing-and-debunking-shadowstats.aspx?article=6811386002H11690&redirect=false&contributor=Mish
https://www.thestreet.com/economonitor/emerging-markets/deconstructing-shadowstats-why-is-it-so-loved-by-its-followers-but-scorned-by-economists
https://www.fullstackeconomics.com/p/no-the-real-inflation-rate-isnt-14-percent
https://www.pragcap.com/three-things-i-think-i-think-shadowy-stuff/
https://www.brightworkresearch.com/how-accurate-is-shadowstats-on-the-understatement-of-us-inflation-with-the-new-cpi/
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/2021/11/19/shadow_stats_debunked_804325.html
https://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/2014/10/17/shadowstats-and-the-alternate-inflation-myth
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
@cohodk: excellent set of links; the diversity of sources coming to the same or similar conclusions is impressive.
Because technology and substitution models change over time.
Do you still rent 2 or 3 videos a week at $3.99 each from BlockBuster -- or do you stream for $15/month ?
fortunately my 1964 quarter still buys a gallon of gas. Too bad my doctor wants "new" money,
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Not sure that’s quite accurate. I suppose interest rates might be part of the equation.
If one's livelihood depends on the narrative of low inflation, it only makes sense that they will try to "debunk" John Williams' work.
These are the same people who change the rules if they find themselves on the losing side of the transaction. Because they can.
I knew it would happen.
Doesn't it make sense to start before the Carter years? Wasn't the WIP (Whip Inflation Now) program the big focus for the Ford administration? Also, if I remember correctly Nixon froze all wages and prices to try and get things stabilized. I think that just set up the economy to have pent up demand to raise wages and prices when that stopped. But I'm certainly not an expert. Just remembering what was going on back then. The oil shock was a huge part of this too obviously.
Kelly
No one in those links "changed the rules".
For your consideration......The more fervently one follows a narrative, the more easily they are controlled and manipulated.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
My opinions are my own. I don't know how you function, but I think for myself.
I knew it would happen.
deflation in the works?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Who said inflation is low?
.
A gallon of gasoline is the same as 15 years ago. Is that inflation?
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=m
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Huh? Where I live gas is $4 a gallon. I’ve paid more but not 10-15 years ago.. last year I paid $4.70 a gallon.
not when neither supply and demand are inflated.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Fine...but realize that John Williams work -- while interesting -- is NOT accepted as say Milton Friedman's Quantity Theory Of Money.
People always try and stress conspiracies, control, monopoly -- sometimes it's just the free market at work.
Huh ? What does that mean ?
Yes, Nixon's W&P controls were stupid and ridiculous. But my point is that if you started the chart at 1980 or 1982, the trend is much less inflationary.
I think you’re pulling my leg. You buy groceries lately? Or pay for services anywhere? Have you dined out?
it means there is usually no price change when supply and demand do not change.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
And how is using an older, OFFICIAL formula a conspiracy theory?
You sound like coho - if you don't agree with a narrative it must be a conspiracy theory. LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
You complained about inflation now let me guess you are going to start complaining about deflation? Which is it man?? Something other than the destruction of 'merica has to float your boat??? Let us know. THKS!
Did you even bother to open the link and see for yourself that the average national price in summer 2008 was the same today?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You find conspiracy in everything. Lol
Dang Henry Ford. Pushing cars on us when older modes of transportation worked just fine.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Large grade AA eggs $1.99 a dozen... and those pallets in the cooler at he store not getting any fresher... next stop 1.29...
Isn't supply and demand an amazing phenomenon?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I could ask you if you bothered to answer my questions?
Just to keep it polite here
you and I simply disagree on the trajectory of inflation.
Cheers.
No I don't. I simply pointed out that gasoline is the same price as 15 years ago.
To your point, yes, other goods and services have increased. So has real median income and most assets. Social security benefits have icreased. And now, even my idle cash is making money.
Inflation is no longer accelerating.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Inflation and debt are a little like blowing up a balloon. Slowly it grows larger and larger. At some point it even looks like it is not getting much larger, even with tiny increases, but the pressure keeps building, until it finally pops.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set