Home Precious Metals

Inflation: Not as low as you think

SpoolySpooly Posts: 2,107 ✭✭✭
Real inflation


PM should rise with inflation
Si vis pacem, para bellum

In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
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Comments

  • OnlyGoldIsMoneyOnlyGoldIsMoney Posts: 3,250 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I believe inflation is well in excess of the official party line but by how much I don't know.

    Thanks for posting the article.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,013 ✭✭✭✭✭
    All depends on who is counting and how they count. Official numbers are hard to compare over time because the method to calculate them mysteriously gets changed to give a lower percentage. Liars figure and figures lie.

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • OnlyGoldIsMoneyOnlyGoldIsMoney Posts: 3,250 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>All depends on who is counting and how they count. Official numbers are hard to compare over time because the method to calculate them mysteriously gets changed to give a lower percentage. Liars figure and figures lie. >>



    Indeed. This reminds me of a quote attributed to "Uncle Joe" Stalin. It goes like this: It does not matter who does the voting. What matters is who does the counting.
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,300 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The new hidden non-inflation: you're losing ounces of product in the same size box for the same price. But we won't count that since that's not what the sheeple need to hear right now.

    Anybody notice the girl scout cookies, thin mints in particular, are about 8-10 cookies less than last year.
  • slincslinc Posts: 480 ✭✭


    << <i>The new hidden non-inflation: you're losing ounces of product in the same size box for the same price. But we won't count that since that's not what the sheeple need to hear right now.

    Anybody notice the girl scout cookies, thin mints in particular, are about 8-10 cookies less than last year. >>



    Thats been going on for quite some time. Companies think consumers are less likely to notice smaller packages then higher prices but the prices eventually go up and the packages stay smaller so we get both.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>All depends on who is counting and how they count. Official numbers are hard to compare over time because the method to calculate them mysteriously gets changed to give a lower percentage. Liars figure and figures lie. >>



    Sure enough. Using 1990 CPI methodology gives a number just above 6%. And using 1980 methods produces a number just above 10%.
    Deflation is built into official govt inflation statistics while inflation is built into GDP stats. Would we expect it any other way?

    Chips Ahoy cookies back in 1969 came in a pretty robust full size bag with cookies about 30-40% larger and with 2X as many chips. Cost was around $2-$3 as I recall.
    Even today's bag is a midget compared to the original one. And cookie man is probably 30% fatter than he was back then (the only true inflation).
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • johnny9434johnny9434 Posts: 27,306 ✭✭✭✭✭
    just like the weatherman, dont believe everything ya hear. jmo
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,503 ✭✭✭
    I will not even buy the Reese Peanut Butter Cups anymore. What a joke. Not worth putting in your mouth anymore. Too much effort for such a small crumb.
  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I will not even buy the Reese Peanut Butter Cups anymore. What a joke. Not worth putting in your mouth anymore. Too much effort for such a small crumb. >>



    image Have you seen a package of Reese Easter eggsimage My annual addiction to these was cured $6 for a bag that was $3 last yearimage
    Avid collector of GSA's.
  • secondrepublicsecondrepublic Posts: 2,619 ✭✭✭
    The one that really annoys me is the shrinkage of Cadbury Creme Eggs. It's well documented. Cereal, too. It's happening everywhere.
    "Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
  • OnlyGoldIsMoneyOnlyGoldIsMoney Posts: 3,250 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The one that really annoys me is the shrinkage of Cadbury Creme Eggs. It's well documented. Cereal, too. It's happening everywhere. >>



    We stopped buying commercial cereal. The muesli and granola we make ourselves is not loaded with sugar, fat and salt. We save a bundle and it tastes much better. image

    Unfortunately we have not worked out a substitute for Cadbury Creme Eggs. image
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,013 ✭✭✭✭✭

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,749 ✭✭✭✭✭

    What goes up...

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,143 ✭✭✭✭

    The fact is inflation was about 2% for the 10 years since this thread was created.

    Maybe the NEXT decade will be different but looking back, this was a waste of cyberspace. :D

  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,768 ✭✭✭✭✭

    We won't have to wait a decade. Another year of this and the damage will be enormous.

  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,768 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    Those in the bottom half of income/wealth in the U.S. are being hammered by inflation. Doubt that includes many people on CU Forums but times are tough for a great many people.

    Count yourself lucky if you're above that median income listed above or have a modest net worth north of 6 figures. 170 million Americans don't and are struggling and being hammered from all sides.

  • silviosisilviosi Posts: 444 ✭✭✭
    edited March 27, 2023 11:51PM

    The really inflation is much more then announced at least 75 % then publish.

    NEVER ARGUE WITH AN IDIOT.FIRST THEY WILL DRAG YOU DOWN TO THEIR LEVEL.THEN, THEY WILL BEAT YOU WITH EXPERIENCE. MARK TWAIN

  • D808LFD808LF Posts: 386 ✭✭✭✭✭

    But, but it's transitory.

    fka renman95, Sep 2005, 7,000 posts

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 13, 2023 12:59PM

    @GoldFinger1969 said:
    The fact is inflation was about 2% for the 10 years since this thread was created.

    Maybe the NEXT decade will be different but looking back, this was a waste of cyberspace. :D

    It depends on which CPI index you use........the "real" one or one of the fake ones.

    Here's info on it. Inflation over the past 10-15 years has been averaging about 10% if you go by the 1980 CPI-U methodology which is currently 13%.. It peaked at 17% a few months ago.....higher than the 1980 peak of 15%. If govt stats don't lie why aren't we using the 1980 or 1990 models of CPI-U? 30 yr Govt T-Bonds were paying upper teens % back in 1980/81. That's high inflation. And using the same CPI model of that period.....we exceeded the 79/80 peak. The US Govt had to pay those high interest rates in 1980 because unlike today they didn't have $150+ TRILLION in interest rate swaps/derivatives to help keep the percentage "low." That's the biggest difference from then to now.

    The only waste of cyber space was your unsupported comment. There's always more to govt stats than meet the eye. Accept them at face value at your own risk.

    Click on the "inflation" charts for CPI info.

    shadowstats.com/alternate_data

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,493 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 13, 2023 4:59PM

    @roadrunner said:
    If govt stats don't lie why aren't we using the 1980 or 1990 models of CPI-U?

    Because that's when they used to play music on MTV? When folk read magazines? When David Hasselhoff was the man!!

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,278 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @roadrunner said:
    If govt stats don't lie why aren't we using the 1980 or 1990 models of CPI-U?

    When David Hasselhoff was the man!!

    Rumour has it he still is the man in some parts of Germany. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,143 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 8, 2023 10:03PM

    @roadrunner said:

    @GoldFinger1969 said:
    The fact is inflation was about 2% for the 10 years since this thread was created.
    Maybe the NEXT decade will be different but looking back, this was a waste of cyberspace. :D

    It depends on which CPI index you use........the "real" one or one of the fake ones.
    Here's info on it. Inflation over the past 10-15 years has been averaging about 10% if you go by the 1980 CPI-U methodology which is currently 13%.. It peaked at 17% a few months ago.....higher than the 1980 peak of 15%. If govt stats don't lie why aren't we using the 1980 or 1990 models of CPI-U? 30 yr Govt T-Bonds were paying upper teens % back in 1980/81. That's high inflation. And using the same CPI model of that period.....we exceeded the 79/80 peak. The US Govt had to pay those high interest rates in 1980 because unlike today they didn't have $150+ TRILLION in interest rate swaps/derivatives to help keep the percentage "low." That's the biggest difference from then to now.

    I don't think you understand economic statistics. I started out as a Fed Watcher and compiler of government data so I know all about inflation adjustments, cost of goods vs. cost of living, hedonics, etc. Yes, changes in methodologies, substitutions, hedonics, etc....are all interesting. I've read the debates for 40 years.

    You can't use inflation methodologies from a different time period. In 1960 it took 150 hours at the average hourly manufacturing wage to buy a washer & dryer. It takes about 30 of those same wage hours to buy a modern washer & dryer.

    A laptop in 2000 cost $2,000 for B- or C+ performance. A laptop in 2023 cost $800 for A+ performance.

    Interest rates swaps and derivatives do not "keep" rates low. That's not how they work in a modern financial economy. You focus on notional values and not market values which are 1/10th to 1/30th that amount and largely NET OUT. The futures and options markets do not cause the DJIA and SPX to go up.

    The fact of the matter is that if you made financial decisions based on the factors you cite, you'd be fired as a professional money manager in short order. The market doesn't care about politics, race, skin color, ideology, height, sex, sports teams, etc...etc...etc. You can be RIGHT about the valuation and the economy and the Fed and interest rates and the global situation....and if you get the market WRONG, that's all that matters.

    The numbers and links you cite -- while interesting -- are simply not valid or relevant for modern day investing in PMs, gold, bonds, or stocks.

    Sorry........ :'(

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,143 ✭✭✭✭

    The numbers in the Median Minimum Wage chart are cherry-picked and all over the place. No median home price is $450,000 except near major metropolitan areas like SanFran, NYC, etc. Gas prices are 30% cheaper. Movie prices didn't jump that much from 2019 to 2021.

    Starting with 1975 before the Carter Inflation Years also distorts the charts.

  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,131 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk: excellent set of links; the diversity of sources coming to the same or similar conclusions is impressive.

    Higashiyama
  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,143 ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 9, 2023 7:34AM

    @roadrunner said:
    If govt stats don't lie why aren't we using the 1980 or 1990 models of CPI-U?

    Because technology and substitution models change over time.

    Do you still rent 2 or 3 videos a week at $3.99 each from BlockBuster -- or do you stream for $15/month ? :)

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,013 ✭✭✭✭✭

    fortunately my 1964 quarter still buys a gallon of gas. Too bad my doctor wants "new" money,

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • percybpercyb Posts: 3,295 ✭✭✭

    @Spooly said:
    Real inflation

    PM should rise with inflation

    Not sure that’s quite accurate. I suppose interest rates might be part of the equation.

    "Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,263 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If one's livelihood depends on the narrative of low inflation, it only makes sense that they will try to "debunk" John Williams' work.

    These are the same people who change the rules if they find themselves on the losing side of the transaction. Because they can.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • @GoldFinger1969 said:

    Starting with 1975 before the Carter Inflation Years also distorts the charts.

    Doesn't it make sense to start before the Carter years? Wasn't the WIP (Whip Inflation Now) program the big focus for the Ford administration? Also, if I remember correctly Nixon froze all wages and prices to try and get things stabilized. I think that just set up the economy to have pent up demand to raise wages and prices when that stopped. But I'm certainly not an expert. Just remembering what was going on back then. The oil shock was a huge part of this too obviously.

    Kelly

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,493 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    If one's livelihood depends on the narrative of low inflation, it only makes sense that they will try to "debunk" John Williams' work.

    These are the same people who change the rules if they find themselves on the losing side of the transaction. Because they can.

    No one in those links "changed the rules".

    For your consideration......The more fervently one follows a narrative, the more easily they are controlled and manipulated.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,263 ✭✭✭✭✭

    My opinions are my own. I don't know how you function, but I think for myself.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,013 ✭✭✭✭✭

    deflation in the works?

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • percybpercyb Posts: 3,295 ✭✭✭

    Who said inflation is low?

    "Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,493 ✭✭✭✭✭

    .

    @percyb said:
    Who said inflation is low?

    A gallon of gasoline is the same as 15 years ago. Is that inflation?

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • percybpercyb Posts: 3,295 ✭✭✭
    edited May 18, 2023 10:43AM

    Huh? Where I live gas is $4 a gallon. I’ve paid more but not 10-15 years ago.. last year I paid $4.70 a gallon.

    "Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,013 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 18, 2023 10:45AM

    @cohodk said:
    .

    @percyb said:
    Who said inflation is low?

    A gallon of gasoline is the same as 15 years ago. Is that inflation?

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

    not when neither supply and demand are inflated.

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,143 ✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    My opinions are my own. I don't know how you function, but I think for myself.

    Fine...but realize that John Williams work -- while interesting -- is NOT accepted as say Milton Friedman's Quantity Theory Of Money.

    People always try and stress conspiracies, control, monopoly -- sometimes it's just the free market at work.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,143 ✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    .

    @percyb said:
    Who said inflation is low?

    A gallon of gasoline is the same as 15 years ago. Is that inflation?

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

    not when neither supply and demand are inflated.

    Huh ? What does that mean ?

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,143 ✭✭✭✭

    @Newbiedoobiedoo said:

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    Starting with 1975 before the Carter Inflation Years also distorts the charts.

    Doesn't it make sense to start before the Carter years? Wasn't the WIP (Whip Inflation Now) program the big focus for the Ford administration? Also, if I remember correctly Nixon froze all wages and prices to try and get things stabilized. I think that just set up the economy to have pent up demand to raise wages and prices when that stopped. But I'm certainly not an expert. Just remembering what was going on back then. The oil shock was a huge part of this too obviously.

    Kelly

    Yes, Nixon's W&P controls were stupid and ridiculous. But my point is that if you started the chart at 1980 or 1982, the trend is much less inflationary.

  • percybpercyb Posts: 3,295 ✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    .

    @percyb said:
    Who said inflation is low?

    A gallon of gasoline is the same as 15 years ago. Is that inflation?

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

    I think you’re pulling my leg. You buy groceries lately? Or pay for services anywhere? Have you dined out?

    "Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,013 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    .

    @percyb said:
    Who said inflation is low?

    A gallon of gasoline is the same as 15 years ago. Is that inflation?

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

    not when neither supply and demand are inflated.

    it means there is usually no price change when supply and demand do not change.

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,013 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @jmski52 said:
    My opinions are my own. I don't know how you function, but I think for myself.

    Fine...but realize that John Williams work -- while interesting -- is NOT accepted as say Milton Friedman's Quantity Theory Of Money.

    People always try and stress conspiracies, control, monopoly -- sometimes it's just the free market at work.

    And how is using an older, OFFICIAL formula a conspiracy theory?

    You sound like coho - if you don't agree with a narrative it must be a conspiracy theory. LOL

    "Do you hear alarm bells ringing? Neither do I. And that’s a huge problem." - Simon Black

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,278 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    deflation in the works?

    You complained about inflation now let me guess you are going to start complaining about deflation? Which is it man?? Something other than the destruction of 'merica has to float your boat??? Let us know. THKS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,493 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @percyb said:

    @cohodk said:
    .

    @percyb said:
    Who said inflation is low?

    A gallon of gasoline is the same as 15 years ago. Is that inflation?

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

    I think you’re pulling my leg. You buy groceries lately? Or pay for services anywhere? Have you dined out?

    Did you even bother to open the link and see for yourself that the average national price in summer 2008 was the same today?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,493 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @jmski52 said:
    My opinions are my own. I don't know how you function, but I think for myself.

    Fine...but realize that John Williams work -- while interesting -- is NOT accepted as say Milton Friedman's Quantity Theory Of Money.

    People always try and stress conspiracies, control, monopoly -- sometimes it's just the free market at work.

    And how is using an older, OFFICIAL formula a conspiracy theory?

    You find conspiracy in everything. Lol

    Dang Henry Ford. Pushing cars on us when older modes of transportation worked just fine.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Large grade AA eggs $1.99 a dozen... and those pallets in the cooler at he store not getting any fresher... next stop 1.29...

    Isn't supply and demand an amazing phenomenon?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • percybpercyb Posts: 3,295 ✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @percyb said:

    @cohodk said:
    .

    @percyb said:
    Who said inflation is low?

    A gallon of gasoline is the same as 15 years ago. Is that inflation?

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

    I think you’re pulling my leg. You buy groceries lately? Or pay for services anywhere? Have you dined out?

    Did you even bother to open the link and see for yourself that the average national price in summer 2008 was the same today?

    I could ask you if you bothered to answer my questions?

    Just to keep it polite here
    you and I simply disagree on the trajectory of inflation.

    Cheers.

    "Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,493 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 19, 2023 5:11AM

    @percyb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @percyb said:

    @cohodk said:
    .

    @percyb said:
    Who said inflation is low?

    A gallon of gasoline is the same as 15 years ago. Is that inflation?

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

    I think you’re pulling my leg. You buy groceries lately? Or pay for services anywhere? Have you dined out?

    Did you even bother to open the link and see for yourself that the average national price in summer 2008 was the same today?

    I could ask you if you bothered to answer my questions?

    Just to keep it polite here
    you and I simply disagree on the trajectory of inflation.

    Cheers.

    No I don't. I simply pointed out that gasoline is the same price as 15 years ago.

    To your point, yes, other goods and services have increased. So has real median income and most assets. Social security benefits have icreased. And now, even my idle cash is making money.

    Inflation is no longer accelerating.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 3,558 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Inflation and debt are a little like blowing up a balloon. Slowly it grows larger and larger. At some point it even looks like it is not getting much larger, even with tiny increases, but the pressure keeps building, until it finally pops.

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