<< <i>cohodk, tell me that gold short was a 2xETF and you are going to Hawaii for vacation. >>
Sorry Spooly, it wasnt. T'was the 3x short etf.
Worse thing was that I had an order for 100 SLV Mar 17 $33 puts on my screen and didnt hit enter. Thought the premium was too high for only 3 more trading days.
While volume did pick up today, it wasnt anything close to being capitulatory. Im thinking much more downside.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
There's still good evidence for both directions. McLellan is looking for a mid-cycle dip this month. Hard to say if we've already seen it or if there is more to come. Nichols has identified 8 other strikingly similar patterns that match this one, all of which proceeded 20-35% moves (up). Another positive sign is a likelihood of strong oil prices (due to middle-east concerns) for those who believe in the oil-gold correlation. Money flowing out of bonds may verywell end up in commodities.
On the downside, it appears that the stock markets are topping and nearing a peak after a pretty long run. Hard to imagine it going too much further. With the market and gold somewhat directly correlated lately, it would be hard for gold to rise in a declining stock market. Also to consider is that gold ETF holdings levels are at record or near-record highs, and prices have always capitulated when ETF holdings are at levels like we are seeing now.
Platinum has actually been doing alright lately, and some have suggested a long plat/short gold trade...
I bought a few GLD calls today on the chance that it takes off because if it does we should see movement Tues or Wed. I didn't go big though.
dumped AGQ at 57.15 right before market close Tuesday, didn't see the strenght I was looking for. Will look for a low this morning to get back in.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I'll re-evaluate SLV if it gets above the 50dma and $33 psych level. Until then, its still a short.
However----We can draw a line connecting the bottoms on GDX over the last 18 months, and guess what, today it hit that line and bounced hard. Maybe, just maybe, miners are close to bottoming. I may sell some GDX puts today to start a long position.
<< <i>Covered gold short and bot GDX at 49. Lets see if I can play the range. >>
Sold the GDX 50 calls that expire this week. If it gets called away at 50 the trade nets a 3.3% return. If it drops then I still took in 1.3% downside protection.
Nichols is predicting a strong ~$50 move in gold this week. I'm a little skeptical, but with the Bernanke scheduled to talk today, that could be the trigger.
It's interesting. Nichols today brought up the gold sentiment is about as low as it gets, and cited http://sentimentrader.com/ and showed some of the charts. I don't know the methodology for how the charts are derived, but the important thing is the historical correlation to price action which is pretty solid. He also notes that many of the blogs are negative in general at the moment, and that this is the recipe for a strong move. So I think I'm still going to hang back and observe and wait, but I'm going to go ahead an lock in my orders for some physical gold buffalos (for long term holding) at these prices. It might go down but I'm not buying a huge quantity so I'm not worried.
Could see a few more days of weakness.....up to a week....as OE hits on Tuesday. Bond auctions Tu-Thursday next week.
GDX for the 6th time since Oct 2010 has bounced off the bottom trend line of an expanding wedge. Can make a lot of reasons for it bottoming here. But the wave count isn't very clear or particularly precise to say a nice ABC is done or 5 waves finally complete. Yesterdays dip gave GDX to SPY ratio (or HUI vs. Gold) at lowest levels in approx 3 yrs. I could see another week, maybe up to 2 weeks for GDX meandering sideways and looking for footing. On a number of those 6 dips over the past 18 months GDX has given the impression it broke trendlines or H&S formations and was heading down deep. All turned out to be head fakes. This doesn't look anything like Sept-October 2008 where gold was headed to $681, the stock market was not far from heading to <7,000, Lehman went bust, QE and bailouts were ineffective and too small.
GDXJ stll had 15 cents more to drop to fill the gap from Dec 30th breakout. So at least one more push down to get that in upper 23's. Note that SIL still has a ways to dip to get its gap down in the upper 20 range.
The 10/2 yr yield ratio bounced off 5.5 which is pretty close to the 3 yr trend line. The current consolidaton has been going on since September and a month or so longer than the previous ones of the past 3 yrs. Each strong move in gold over the past few years tened to coincide with strong rallies in this ratio. A move to 5.0 would complete a parallel channel. But if the trend breaks hard, it won't be very bullish for metals. Looks to be in the last part of the C leg (of an ABC) beginning in September (weekly chart on 2nd page).
<< <i>I really wanna short silver so friggin bad!!!
Why does it have to be such an emotional metal? UGH!!! >>
Ohhhhhhhh Come on!!!!!! Do it Just playing. I think you would be dead wrong. I've been short and looking to liquidate soon. >>
Then you be makin' smoe bacon. Silver down 2% this morn. Nice trading. I shoulda gone all in. Could have another $2 drop in it during this cycle. >>
Well I didn't go all in. Just some slv puts and they are doing ok for sure. My guess is $30.50 as a bottom if my Elliott Wave count is correct. That is a 0.618 retracement.
Currently working with nurmaler. Older transactions....circa 2011 BST transactions Gecko109, Segoja, lpinion, Agblox, oldgumballmachineswanted,pragmaticgoat, CharlieC, onlyroosies, timrutnat, ShinyThingsInPM under login lightcycler
Friday's COT report gave us a 3rd week of the same short to long shift. As of Tuesday, commercials added 15,424 longs and sold 10,126 shorts the past reporting week. Another huge swing. For the last 3 weeks that's an addition of 22K longs and a subtraction of 57K shorts...or a huge net change of 79,000 contracts to the long side. Just since the Feb 28th peak gold futures OI has dropped from 479K to 431K, short to long commercial (banks) ratio has dropped from 2.69 to 1.99, and overall net commercial short position has dropped from 245K to 166K contracts. These current levels are nearly identical to those of the Dec 30th report when gold bottomed. The silver short ratio is also in the historical bottoming range as well at 1.85 with OI of 111K.
Definitely a more bullish than bearish picture with the banks totally reversing out of their long positions from late February. If they're piling more to the long side, a big move down in gold seems unlikely right now. They made all their money over the past 4 weeks. They don't seem to be positioned too well for next Tuesday's OE (Tbond auctions Tu-Thurs). Note too that they continue to feed their dollar short position, now back to a cyclically fat 11.4 ratio, a level not seen since the first half of Feb. But it did peak at an insane 14.45 in late January.
The market for gold did seem to put in a bottom in the last two days. Nichols is expecting a strong finish to this month, and certainly with so much negative sentinment toward gold that the market is ripe for a nice run.
Im encouraged by the action in the miners with them finding support--so far. Probably too early to start a major uptrend, but should be very tradeable for next few weeks. Support in the miners may mean support for PMs. Still looking sideways range, but the range is quite large.
The ISDA came out today and declared that the Greek credit haircut was not a default....just like JS said it would be. Those owning CDS protection might as well burn them. #### Good thing they didn't. The default was declared and they will receive their money. Between 2.4 and 3.2 billion dollars. Not enough to shake the economic foundations of the world unless of course that's what one is selling and then it fills a few monthly paid subscription newsletters with 'that was no acorn pard, I know a falling sky when I see one" pronouncements. ####### Wonder if a 99% debt haircut would be ruled on "non-credit default" event as well? ### As I read the ISDS rules, rules the debt holders agreed to, yes provided all parties agree. In this case, not all parties agreed to the restructuring or haircut and those who didn't now get paid. It was nowhere near 99% either or they would have held out. They are after all greedy bankers, no? But in no sense are they 'American' banks. That is a conceit we seem to have that I find little factual support to maintain. But even supposing that each and every one were incorporated here and staffed from top to bottom with yankee doodle dandies, their corporate and personal loyalties would still be elsewhere. Because there is them and there is us and we, not them, are the Muppets. It's a law of nature, like lions and lambs. Baaaaaa. ###### >>
Many, many perfect transactions with other members. Ask please.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
We've all heard this before. But what I like in this article are the 2 charts provided. The author is not surprised that gold is managed. After all, everything out there is (ie interest rates, food prices, energy prices, stock prices, bond prices, home prices, etc.). Leaving gold out of the picture would be negligent on the part of govt.
1. One shows how well would have done over the past 10 yrs if trading in gold each day on the Comex from open to close (ie buy at the open, sell at the close). 2. Second chart shows how one would have fared shorting gold on the Comex each day, and then going Long overnight (buy at open, sell at close).
Gains on the above scenarios:
1. -70% 2. +5,000% 3. +590% (buy on Jan 1st 2001 and held straight for 10 yrs).
I agree, the stock market looks poised for much more upside.
Gold is likely to struggle for a few more days, but it does seem like it is getting ready for a heck of a move. There's a lot of speculation of a formal QE announcement coming really soon, and that should launch gold up a few hundred like it has in previous times.
<< <i>I agree, the stock market looks poised for much more upside. Gold is likely to struggle for a few more days, but it does seem like it is getting ready for a heck of a move. There's a lot of speculation of a formal QE announcement coming really soon, and that should launch gold up a few hundred like it has in previous times. >>
Stock market filled its Monday gap today as did GLD. But one last GLD gap down around $1639 could be hit before this OE week expires. I'd be surprised if they didn't take another stab to hit gold tomorrow morning. Part of the game plan for re-election is to keep the SM fairly high. And by that I think 13,000 is a line in the sand to some degree. I'm not sure we ever get another formal announcement of QE, but rather some substitute like "operation twist." The FED has probably learned their lesson that commods/energy skyrocket when they do that. But never fear, they've been pumping like crazy behind the scenes for the past 9 months even after QE2 officially docked. The banksters action of this week was quite well done after last week's thrashing. They "allowed" a nice run up in gold that was aided by BB's FEDspeak and then proceeded to shave $40 off it as everyone was getting excited. Lather, rinse, repeat. The volume today behind the dollar's small upmove was pitiful. But it's rallied from similar circumstances before. It's just touched the 20 day lower BB and could have some more upside. With end of quarter rebalancings Thurs/Friday there's still plenty of ammo out there to be fired.
There were 13-1/2 weeks between the 9/26 and 12/29 gold lows. Next Monday/Tuesday would mark the same time difference from the 12/29 low. The COT so completely shifted their longs and shorts the past 3 weeks that it would seem hard to believe they have another sharp round of gold hits in store. Short to long commercial ratio dropped from 2.68 to 1.99 and net short position dropped to around 430,000....levels nearly identical to the Dec 29th bottom at $1533. But it doesn't mean they couldn't drive them even lower.
Roadrunner, im sure if you could find similar research on the equity market, the finding would be very nearly the same.
PC, interesting as im beginning to think gold could "fail miserably". Broke the 200dma a few weeks ago. This rally has only taken back to test the 200dma. It also failed at the 20dma. RSI barely reached 50 on the bounce. Other momos in still pointing down. The 50dma will begin to turn lower in a few weeks and could trade below the 200.
<< <i>Roadrunner, im sure if you could find similar research on the equity market, the finding would be very nearly the same.
PC, interesting as im beginning to think gold could "fail miserably". Broke the 200dma a few weeks ago. This rally has only taken back to test the 200dma. It also failed at the 20dma. RSI barely reached 50 on the bounce. Other momos in still pointing down. The 50dma will begin to turn lower in a few weeks and could trade below the 200. >>
You mean Apple (or some other hot stock over the past 10 yrs) trading in NY would show a 70% decrease over the past 10 yrs and a 5,000% increase if shorted in NY, and long overseas each day? In other words all of the Dows or big cap gains each year come from overseas?
If one looks at Head and Shoulder and other technical patterns it's not hard to come up with a gold price price down in the $1300-$1450 range and HUI in the $300's. Gold has essentially put in the same time consolidating since the $1900+ peaks as it did in 2008 after hitting $1033. Depending on whether one uses the August or Sept $1900 peak suggests either the time period is now matched, or is within 2 weeks of it. Considering that the move from $681 to $1921 took just under 3 yrs, but the move from 2001-2008 took 7 yrs, one would think that the amount of time to consolidate this most recent leg would be proportionally less (ie completed back in late Dec at $1523). Both would have been about a 10% time corrections. Seasonal March weakness "should" be ending this week. April through May has typically been a stronger period. Would think that a 2nd leg into the $1700's would be feasible now. Sentiment in gold/pms is still in the toilet and probably the lowest by far of any major sector. Miners are even worse (ie flushed down the toilet). Gold comex OI dropped by 20,000 contracts from yesterday as no doubt many longs were closed out in the $1680's and $1670's.
I definitely could make a case for either direction. They cycle that RR speaks of is very prominent and a low is due right now +/- a few weeks. With sentiment already highly negative, this recent negative price action is exactly what's needed to send prices soaring.
>> In other words all of the Dows or big cap gains each year come from overseas? >>
Really it makes sense when 80% of demand for physical gold is from Asia and maybe 7% is domestic. Physical dominated trade overseas drives prices higher, and when New York opens, hedge funds and futures traders that trade both sides seek an equilibrium. If 80% of the demand for equities was from overseas, there would be similar patterns.
Another factor is that major U.S. economic indicators are released just before the New York open. If any market is being driven by U.S. economic news, the predicted pattern would show similar distortions.
Shortly into the above link is a 57 page report discussing cartel tactics during the 24 hrs per day of the gold market. Some of that stuff I've mentioned here from time to time. What I found most interesting was the repetition of the same cartel algo's running time and time again in a short time period. The author shows several algo's being used via Kitco daily charts. This should come as no surprise as this is what HFT computers are programmed to do. These just happen to be programmed to cap or dump the gold price at various points during the trading day.
Next lower GLD gap at 159.71 nearly filled today but missed by .1 (ie gold to $1644). SIL still has a nice gap at 21.11 and today's low got a bit closer at 21.60. SLV has a deeper Janaury 2012 gap as well that would need silver in the $29's to fill. If silver continues to follow the chart symmetry from late Oct/early Sept, it will get filled. 5 legs down on GDX over the past 3 days with some decent volume in the last hour of trading. But the selling volume over the past couple of days in the gold seniors has been low as well. GDX now showing some slight pos divergences on the daily chart.
Afternoon today metals moving up, stocks too. PPT may be at work. Nice hammer candles on GDX and GDXJ today. GDX dipped deeper than any of the previous 7 days, yet it closed higher than 5 of the previous 7 day lows. GDX also looks to have put in 5 waves down over the past 3 days. Much fear put in during today's dip. Even CDNX showing a decent hammer candle which it rarely does. Transports too. The cyclical bottom may have occurred on the 20th or 22nd. But why not scare everyone to death with a final lower low in miners during end of quarter OE week? We've seen it before. Have to go back to early November to find a similar looking white, long stemmed, GDX hammer candle.
The 2/5/7 yr TNote auctions this week fetched a solid $100 BILL. The bid to cover ratios of the 2 yr and 7 yr were quite strong at 3.6 to 3.8. The FED is certainly an aggressive buyer.
metals will continue to move with the dow, at least in the short term.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Afternoon today metals moving up, stocks too. PPT may be at work.
No PPT today. Just end of qtr window dressing and painting of the tape. ... >>
My theory is that the PPT is now splitting its focus, with one eye on keeping oil prices in check, because polling is showing that issue is hurting the chief. The stock market has had a big up move this year, so has room to fall before that will hurt the polling.
Comments
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
<< <i>cohodk, tell me that gold short was a 2xETF and you are going to Hawaii for vacation.
Sorry Spooly, it wasnt. T'was the 3x short etf.
Worse thing was that I had an order for 100 SLV Mar 17 $33 puts on my screen and didnt hit enter. Thought the premium was too high for only 3 more trading days.
While volume did pick up today, it wasnt anything close to being capitulatory. Im thinking much more downside.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
But I never go "all in", but am thinking "thats all she wrote".
Did just buy some SLV puts. ETF was at 31.99 at the time.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
On the downside, it appears that the stock markets are topping and nearing a peak after a pretty long run. Hard to imagine it going too much further. With the market and gold somewhat directly correlated lately, it would be hard for gold to rise in a declining stock market. Also to consider is that gold ETF holdings levels are at record or near-record highs, and prices have always capitulated when ETF holdings are at levels like we are seeing now.
Platinum has actually been doing alright lately, and some have suggested a long plat/short gold trade...
I bought a few GLD calls today on the chance that it takes off because if it does we should see movement Tues or Wed. I didn't go big though.
Shoulda gone "all in".
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I'll re-evaluate SLV if it gets above the 50dma and $33 psych level. Until then, its still a short.
However----We can draw a line connecting the bottoms on GDX over the last 18 months, and guess what, today it hit that line and bounced hard. Maybe, just maybe, miners are close to bottoming. I may sell some GDX puts today to start a long position.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Really not seeing anything bullish in this chart.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Covered gold short and bot GDX at 49. Lets see if I can play the range. >>
Sold the GDX 50 calls that expire this week. If it gets called away at 50 the trade nets a 3.3% return. If it drops then I still took in 1.3% downside protection.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Why does it have to be such an emotional metal? UGH!!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
GDX for the 6th time since Oct 2010 has bounced off the bottom trend line of an expanding wedge. Can make a lot of reasons for it bottoming here. But the wave count isn't very
clear or particularly precise to say a nice ABC is done or 5 waves finally complete. Yesterdays dip gave GDX to SPY ratio (or HUI vs. Gold) at lowest levels in approx 3 yrs. I could see
another week, maybe up to 2 weeks for GDX meandering sideways and looking for footing. On a number of those 6 dips over the past 18 months GDX has given the impression it broke trendlines or H&S formations and was heading down deep. All turned out to be head fakes. This doesn't look anything like Sept-October 2008 where gold was headed to $681, the stock market was not far from heading to <7,000, Lehman went bust, QE and bailouts were ineffective and too small.
GDXJ stll had 15 cents more to drop to fill the gap from Dec 30th breakout. So at least one more push down to get that in upper 23's. Note that SIL still has a ways to dip to get its gap
down in the upper 20 range.
Treasury ratio yield curve
The 10/2 yr yield ratio bounced off 5.5 which is pretty close to the 3 yr trend line. The current consolidaton has been going on since September and a month or so longer than the previous ones of the past 3 yrs. Each strong move in gold over the past few years tened to coincide with strong rallies in this ratio. A move to 5.0 would complete a parallel channel.
But if the trend breaks hard, it won't be very bullish for metals. Looks to be in the last part of the C leg (of an ABC) beginning in September (weekly chart on 2nd page).
<< <i>I really wanna short silver so friggin bad!!!
Why does it have to be such an emotional metal? UGH!!! >>
Ohhhhhhhh Come on!!!!!! Do it
<< <i>
<< <i>I really wanna short silver so friggin bad!!!
Why does it have to be such an emotional metal? UGH!!! >>
Ohhhhhhhh Come on!!!!!! Do it
Then you be makin' smoe bacon. Silver down 2% this morn. Nice trading. I shoulda gone all in. Could have another $2 drop in it during this cycle.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I really wanna short silver so friggin bad!!!
Why does it have to be such an emotional metal? UGH!!! >>
Ohhhhhhhh Come on!!!!!! Do it
Then you be makin' smoe bacon. Silver down 2% this morn. Nice trading. I shoulda gone all in. Could have another $2 drop in it during this cycle. >>
Well I didn't go all in. Just some slv puts and they are doing ok for sure. My guess is $30.50 as a bottom if my Elliott Wave count is correct. That is a 0.618 retracement.
<< <i>I really wanna short silver so friggin bad!!!
Why does it have to be such an emotional metal? UGH!!! >>
This thing gets whipsawed so much..I get short and they rally or I pile on and they go down....and shake
the bejeezuz out of me.
<< <i>
<< <i>I really wanna short silver so friggin bad!!!
Why does it have to be such an emotional metal? UGH!!! >>
This thing gets whipsawed so much..I get short and they rally or I pile on and they go down....and shake
the bejeezuz out of me. >>
You are not alone. Thats why I HATE trading silver and only hold my trades for 5 min -2 days. Gold is much more liquid and less prone to whiplash.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Definitely a more bullish than bearish picture with the banks totally reversing out of their long positions from late February. If they're piling more to the long side, a big move down in gold seems unlikely right now. They made all their money over the past 4 weeks. They don't seem to be positioned too well for next Tuesday's OE (Tbond auctions Tu-Thurs). Note too that they continue to feed their dollar short position, now back to a cyclically fat 11.4 ratio, a level not seen since the first half of Feb. But it did peak at an insane 14.45 in late January.
Im encouraged by the action in the miners with them finding support--so far. Probably too early to start a major uptrend, but should be very tradeable for next few weeks. Support in the miners may mean support for PMs. Still looking sideways range, but the range is quite large.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>......
The ISDA came out today and declared that the Greek credit haircut was not a default....just like JS said it would be. Those owning CDS protection might as well burn them.
####
Good thing they didn't. The default was declared and they will receive their money. Between 2.4 and 3.2 billion dollars. Not enough to shake the economic foundations of the world unless of course that's what one is selling and then it fills a few monthly paid subscription newsletters with 'that was no acorn pard, I know a falling sky when I see one" pronouncements.
#######
Wonder if a 99% debt haircut would be ruled on "non-credit default" event as well?
###
As I read the ISDS rules, rules the debt holders agreed to, yes provided all parties agree. In this case, not all parties agreed to the restructuring or haircut and those who didn't now get paid. It was nowhere near 99% either or they would have held out. They are after all greedy bankers, no? But in no sense are they 'American' banks. That is a conceit we seem to have that I find little factual support to maintain. But even supposing that each and every one were incorporated here and staffed from top to bottom with yankee doodle dandies, their corporate and personal loyalties would still be elsewhere. Because there is them and there is us and we, not them, are the Muppets. It's a law of nature, like lions and lambs.
Baaaaaa.
######
>>
Mining stocks still probing lows. They gotta hold.
I bot GDX at 48.98 but sold it it 48.90. Not comfortable holding overnight. Tomorrow always brings more opportunity.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
We've all heard this before. But what I like in this article are the 2 charts provided. The author is not surprised that gold is managed. After all, everything out there
is (ie interest rates, food prices, energy prices, stock prices, bond prices, home prices, etc.). Leaving gold out of the picture would be negligent on the part of govt.
1. One shows how well would have done over the past 10 yrs if trading in gold each day on the Comex from open to close (ie buy at the open, sell at the close).
2. Second chart shows how one would have fared shorting gold on the Comex each day, and then going Long overnight (buy at open, sell at close).
Gains on the above scenarios:
1. -70%
2. +5,000%
3. +590% (buy on Jan 1st 2001 and held straight for 10 yrs).
Gold is likely to struggle for a few more days, but it does seem like it is getting ready for a heck of a move. There's a lot of speculation of a formal QE announcement coming really soon, and that should launch gold up a few hundred like it has in previous times.
<< <i>I agree, the stock market looks poised for much more upside. Gold is likely to struggle for a few more days, but it does seem like it is getting ready for a heck of a move.
There's a lot of speculation of a formal QE announcement coming really soon, and that should launch gold up a few hundred like it has in previous times. >>
Stock market filled its Monday gap today as did GLD. But one last GLD gap down around $1639 could be hit before this OE week expires. I'd be surprised if they didn't take another
stab to hit gold tomorrow morning. Part of the game plan for re-election is to keep the SM fairly high. And by that I think 13,000 is a line in the sand to some degree. I'm not sure we
ever get another formal announcement of QE, but rather some substitute like "operation twist." The FED has probably learned their lesson that commods/energy skyrocket when they
do that. But never fear, they've been pumping like crazy behind the scenes for the past 9 months even after QE2 officially docked. The banksters action of this week was quite well
done after last week's thrashing. They "allowed" a nice run up in gold that was aided by BB's FEDspeak and then proceeded to shave $40 off it as everyone was getting excited.
Lather, rinse, repeat. The volume today behind the dollar's small upmove was pitiful. But it's rallied from similar circumstances before. It's just touched the 20 day lower BB and
could have some more upside. With end of quarter rebalancings Thurs/Friday there's still plenty of ammo out there to be fired.
There were 13-1/2 weeks between the 9/26 and 12/29 gold lows. Next Monday/Tuesday would mark the same time difference from the 12/29 low. The COT so completely shifted
their longs and shorts the past 3 weeks that it would seem hard to believe they have another sharp round of gold hits in store. Short to long commercial ratio dropped from 2.68
to 1.99 and net short position dropped to around 430,000....levels nearly identical to the Dec 29th bottom at $1533. But it doesn't mean they couldn't drive them even lower.
PC, interesting as im beginning to think gold could "fail miserably". Broke the 200dma a few weeks ago. This rally has only taken back to test the 200dma. It also failed at the 20dma. RSI barely reached 50 on the bounce. Other momos in still pointing down. The 50dma will begin to turn lower in a few weeks and could trade below the 200.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Roadrunner, im sure if you could find similar research on the equity market, the finding would be very nearly the same.
PC, interesting as im beginning to think gold could "fail miserably". Broke the 200dma a few weeks ago. This rally has only taken back to test the 200dma. It also failed at the 20dma. RSI barely reached 50 on the bounce. Other momos in still pointing down. The 50dma will begin to turn lower in a few weeks and could trade below the 200. >>
You mean Apple (or some other hot stock over the past 10 yrs) trading in NY would show a 70% decrease over the past 10 yrs and a 5,000% increase if shorted in NY, and long
overseas each day? In other words all of the Dows or big cap gains each year come from overseas?
If one looks at Head and Shoulder and other technical patterns it's not hard to come up with a gold price price down in the $1300-$1450 range and HUI in the $300's.
Gold has essentially put in the same time consolidating since the $1900+ peaks as it did in 2008 after hitting $1033. Depending on whether one uses the August or Sept
$1900 peak suggests either the time period is now matched, or is within 2 weeks of it. Considering that the move from $681 to $1921 took just under 3 yrs, but the move
from 2001-2008 took 7 yrs, one would think that the amount of time to consolidate this most recent leg would be proportionally less (ie completed back in late Dec at $1523).
Both would have been about a 10% time corrections. Seasonal March weakness "should" be ending this week. April through May has typically been a stronger period.
Would think that a 2nd leg into the $1700's would be feasible now. Sentiment in gold/pms is still in the toilet and probably the lowest by far of any major sector. Miners are
even worse (ie flushed down the toilet). Gold comex OI dropped by 20,000 contracts from yesterday as no doubt many longs were closed out in the $1680's and $1670's.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
In other words all of the Dows or big cap gains each year come from overseas?
>>
Really it makes sense when 80% of demand for physical gold is from Asia and maybe 7% is domestic. Physical dominated trade overseas drives prices higher, and when New York opens, hedge funds and futures traders that trade both sides seek an equilibrium. If 80% of the demand for equities was from overseas, there would be similar patterns.
Another factor is that major U.S. economic indicators are released just before the New York open. If any market is being driven by U.S. economic news, the predicted pattern would show similar distortions.
Shortly into the above link is a 57 page report discussing cartel tactics during the 24 hrs per day of the gold market. Some of that stuff I've mentioned
here from time to time. What I found most interesting was the repetition of the same cartel algo's running time and time again in a short time period.
The author shows several algo's being used via Kitco daily charts. This should come as no surprise as this is what HFT computers are programmed to do.
These just happen to be programmed to cap or dump the gold price at various points during the trading day.
Next lower GLD gap at 159.71 nearly filled today but missed by .1 (ie gold to $1644). SIL still has a nice gap at 21.11 and today's low got a bit closer at 21.60. SLV has a deeper Janaury 2012 gap as well that would need silver in the $29's to fill. If silver continues to follow the chart symmetry from late Oct/early Sept, it will get filled. 5 legs down on GDX over the past 3 days with some decent volume in the last hour of trading. But the selling volume over the past couple of days in the gold seniors has been low as well. GDX now showing some slight pos divergences on the daily chart.
Afternoon today metals moving up, stocks too. PPT may be at work. Nice hammer candles on GDX and GDXJ today. GDX dipped deeper than any of the previous 7 days, yet it closed higher than 5 of the previous 7 day lows. GDX also looks to have put in 5 waves down over the past 3 days. Much fear put in during today's dip. Even CDNX showing a decent hammer candle which it rarely does. Transports too. The cyclical bottom may have occurred on the 20th or 22nd. But why not scare everyone to death with a final lower low in miners during end of quarter OE week? We've seen it before. Have to go back to early November to find a similar looking white, long stemmed, GDX hammer candle.
The 2/5/7 yr TNote auctions this week fetched a solid $100 BILL. The bid to cover ratios of the 2 yr and 7 yr were quite strong at 3.6 to 3.8. The FED is certainly an aggressive buyer.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
No PPT today. Just end of qtr window dressing and painting of the tape. Watch how the leading stocks trade in the final hour tomorrow.
OMG---computers buying and selling gold. Well, that convinces me then.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Afternoon today metals moving up, stocks too. PPT may be at work.
No PPT today. Just end of qtr window dressing and painting of the tape. ... >>
My theory is that the PPT is now splitting its focus, with one eye on keeping oil prices in check, because polling is showing that issue is hurting the chief. The stock market has had a big up move this year, so has room to fall before that will hurt the polling.