Larry Fritsch-- 1971 Topps Vending Boxes
Mefer
Posts: 1,163 ✭✭✭
Greetings All--
As I mentioned in another thread (that went unnoticed; I tend to blend in around here
, I have not been following the hobby too closely the last year to two years. Having my interests sparked again, I have been doing a lot of window shopping.
I believe it may have been mentioned on these boards in the distant past, but I was somewhat surprised to see the vending boxes still offered up for sale by Larry Fritsch Cards. Being fond of 1971 Topps, I find it simply amazing the company has a number of different series boxes still available.
On the other hand, perhaps it is not too amazing given the prices. The potentially most valuable box (series one vending with Munson, Jackson, Rose, McCovey, Carlton, Blyleven rookie, Concepcion rookie, Hunter, Orioles team to name a few available) has a sticker price of $18,000.00! I started looking at that from a potential break possibility (all hypothetical)--
1. That works out to $36.00 per card.
2. You would average 3 to 4 of each card.
Accounting for centering and assuming you happened to pull a vendng box that was not dropped at some point in 41 years, and recognizing the toughness of the issue, it might be overly opptomistic to assume you pull 50 cards that are worthy of grading. Of those 50, lets assume two pull a 10 and 15 pull a 9. After grading and selling your nice pulls, I don't see how you can come anywhere near approaching, let alone exceeding, 18k. Conservatively estimating things, I sense the best you could hope for would be a $5,000.00 turnaround. That, I feel, is generous and still $13,000.00 less than the price of the box.
At the end of the day, the only way you could come out ahead would be to pull a 10 on a Rose or Munson. Even then, depending on how the rest of the lot turns out, you may not even break even. The odds of coming ahead on this purchase, through an opening, are next to nil in my opinion.
Of course, all of that may be academic as the value of this item may simply be in its unopened form. If I were to ever buy it (not happening unless I win the lottery), I would probably try to work a deal where it was first sent to PSA for grading and ecapsulation (though correct me if I am wrong, it does not appear PSA grades vending boxes).
When it is all said and done, still a very intriguing and interesting conversation piece!
Matt
As I mentioned in another thread (that went unnoticed; I tend to blend in around here
, I have not been following the hobby too closely the last year to two years. Having my interests sparked again, I have been doing a lot of window shopping.I believe it may have been mentioned on these boards in the distant past, but I was somewhat surprised to see the vending boxes still offered up for sale by Larry Fritsch Cards. Being fond of 1971 Topps, I find it simply amazing the company has a number of different series boxes still available.
On the other hand, perhaps it is not too amazing given the prices. The potentially most valuable box (series one vending with Munson, Jackson, Rose, McCovey, Carlton, Blyleven rookie, Concepcion rookie, Hunter, Orioles team to name a few available) has a sticker price of $18,000.00! I started looking at that from a potential break possibility (all hypothetical)--
1. That works out to $36.00 per card.
2. You would average 3 to 4 of each card.
Accounting for centering and assuming you happened to pull a vendng box that was not dropped at some point in 41 years, and recognizing the toughness of the issue, it might be overly opptomistic to assume you pull 50 cards that are worthy of grading. Of those 50, lets assume two pull a 10 and 15 pull a 9. After grading and selling your nice pulls, I don't see how you can come anywhere near approaching, let alone exceeding, 18k. Conservatively estimating things, I sense the best you could hope for would be a $5,000.00 turnaround. That, I feel, is generous and still $13,000.00 less than the price of the box.
At the end of the day, the only way you could come out ahead would be to pull a 10 on a Rose or Munson. Even then, depending on how the rest of the lot turns out, you may not even break even. The odds of coming ahead on this purchase, through an opening, are next to nil in my opinion.
Of course, all of that may be academic as the value of this item may simply be in its unopened form. If I were to ever buy it (not happening unless I win the lottery), I would probably try to work a deal where it was first sent to PSA for grading and ecapsulation (though correct me if I am wrong, it does not appear PSA grades vending boxes).
When it is all said and done, still a very intriguing and interesting conversation piece!
Matt
0
Comments
Bosox1976
Thats what you are paying for. Its more likely yes you will lose but there is a chance you could pull a 25-50k card and double up.
If they sold the boxes for 5500.00 well then they wouldnt have any.
I'll have to say - the possibility of coming out on top is pretty darn impossible.
Saying it was a crapshoot would be an understatement!
If one had 18K to drop on the set? It would be far better to buy graded and raw "IN" person - and to be frank - a black light wouldn't hurt - many have turned what they thought were super cards to PSA only to find out they missed the fact that the card was 'touched' up.
Great set - good discussion!
The problem I have with the "Brewster's Millions" scenario, in all candor, is there is a a lot of collector in me so I would have difficulty parting with all of these cards were I to theoretically buy it (following the Brewster's Millions plot line to the letter). LOL So I am not sure it would work for me!
I think the price is set so high because, in a way, the company apparently has no burning interest to sell the boxes. Even the more "common" vending boxes are priced higher than those for sale at BBCE. They can obviously set the prices at the level they want but it seems more like the "little old antique shop" mentality. As far as "true value," it would be interesting to see what such a box would bring at auction-- I can only assume it would be well less than 18k. Using Handyman's post as a starting point, it would probably be close to guaranteed to bring the $5,500.00 you mention and perhaps a little higher (I could see it going for $7,500 but even a bit higher would not be surprising).
Stone, you raise a good point as well. Obviously with 18k to drop the smarter investment would be to do as you suggest (and you could put together a very nice graded set with that type of capital). However, and I still do this today on a smaller scale, there is something appealing to me at least of building sets with unopened product. I have build a few 78 sets that way. Yes, a lot more expensive than just buying a nice raw set but 10 times the fun!
Matt
The Fritsch Museum/Hoard will have these for awhile, so buy up some lotto tickets and hope for the best. I would love to see a live rip on youtube if anyone here gets one.
<< <i>there is something appealing to me at least of building sets with unopened product. I have build a few 78 sets that way. Yes, a lot more expensive than just buying a nice raw set but 10 times the fun! >>
It's appealing to me also Matt - but as you alluded - it would have to make sense - i.e. - also be affordable.
I could see cracking an affordable vending case or rack case to see what I could put together.
i did open 4 vending boxes of 83T - but I sure got a lot of OC cards!
<< <i>
<< <i>the only way you could come out ahead would be to pull a 10 on a ... Munson. >>
i'll go out on a limb and say psa will NEVER grade a 10 on a munson. never. >>
It is, for sure, a very tough card from the set with notoriously bad centering. With that said, and at the risk of causing "Bieber Fever," "never say never." I think it is still possible and it would be a site to behold should it ever turn up.
On your point fattymacs, I do agree vending boxes really are nothing to look at especially compared to wax, rack and cellos. However, the allure of whats under the clothes is pretty enticing!
Matt
<< <i>On your point fattymacs, I do agree vending boxes really are nothing to look at especially compared to wax, rack and cellos. However, the allure of whats under the clothes is pretty enticing! >>
Not sure I want to be looking under the Fritsch's clothes...
to market sales. They have been very careful in letting this material go out into the market
for years. They offered several of these boxes through some of the auction houses last year
but the reserve prices were not met.
While there is little doubt that this inventory is authentic, the notoriety for bad centering makes
the thought of buying such a box and nailing a 1 of 1 PSA 10 less that your odds of winning the
Powerball lottery. Even PSA 9s are likely to be few and far between in these boxes IMO.
If a legitimate way to do a card by card break of one of these boxes could be figured out, then perhaps
a break could be contemplated if Fritsch would come down to only slightly above market on the price.
However, as they have very little tied up in this inventory there is very little incentive for them to change
their historical behavior.
My bes t guess is that short of putting a very large dollar order in front of them that makes it very tempting you will probably still
see this inventory in their warehouse for many years to come.
Dave
<< <i>I would imagine you could put together a real nice PSA 8+ set for the price of one of their vending. >>
AND probably have a decent amount left over.
Dave
<< <i>I would imagine you could put together a real nice PSA 8+ set for the price of one of their vending. >>
Close. A PSA 8 set would set you back about $23k-$25k if you put it together card-by-card based on VCP average prices.
You can get asset backed credit lines for 2.12%. Why on earth would you budge on rare product in this interest rate environment?
It is wishful thinking for collectors to think deep pocket sellers are going to budge. If I owned product of this kind I would be raising prices dramatically with rates this low. The cost to hold this product is so low and you could sit on it for years at these rates and still win.
Wake up guys this market is going to move much higher and you better start buying. Low cash rates are forcing people to make investments and the sellers are in a winning position with the current rates.
I don't collect baseball cards but markets are markets and their is a deep enough collector base of baseball cards to know this belief is true.
I also agree with his business model. If you have something that you know is a quality product, and it's rare, then why sell for less ?
There are many times in this hobby when product is more important then cash. I too have stuff in my collection that I would never sell
at today's prices. So I just don't sell it. I hold onto it.