PSA vs BGS for modern cards

gc1213 · February 17, 2012 12:10AM

On the heals of the BVG crossover to PSA thread, I was wondering everyone's thoughts on BGS vs PSA for new issues.

I recently started putting together an 86-87 Fleer set and decided to get the key cards graded by BGS. I like the sub-grading system and was able to find some great 8.5's and 9s that hold their own against PSA 9s without question. It looks like the pricing is about even. I know PSA has a much larger market share but based on VCP and what I see on ebay it looks like BGS is pretty solid on newer cards, not so much when you start looking pre 1980. I can honestly say I will never be selling this set because it is hands down my favorite cards set of all time. Now that I am nearly complete and will likely move on to another set (Top 50 NBA Player RCs) I was wondering what is the better grading format.

alifaxwa2 · February 17, 2012 12:13AM

If you never plan on selling, your best bet is do whatever you LIKE better. Seems to be BGS.

wallst32 · February 17, 2012 12:19AM

If you're referring to the NBA Top 50 registry set, you'll have an eaiser time finding the cards in PSA vs BGS, as most people would have submitted the older cards to PSA over BGS.

gc1213 · February 17, 2012 12:23AM

That's what I was thinking. Only issue is I have done the 86-87 set in BGS so it looks like I'll have some cards in different slabs. Oh well, there is no way I'm competing with the big boys on the registry anyway. Maybe just get any rookies 86-present in BGS and do PSA for pre 86-87 for continuity.

vladguerrero · February 17, 2012 12:30AM

Lots of success going BGS to PSA here.

gc1213 · February 17, 2012 12:44AM

Vlad,

Do you find they crossover to equal or better grades? I would be curious to see the feedback if I posted some scans this weekend of the BGS 8.5s and 9's I have. The NBA 50 Greatest Players will end up as my ultimate challenge and sometime down the line I would possibly crossover if that set progresses nicely although I'm not so against having a mix of slabs as long as the card presents well. I think a few of my BGS 8.5's compare favorably to any PSA 9s and the few 9's I have look nearly perfect.

vladguerrero · February 17, 2012 1:21AM

PSA is more lenient on modern surface, BGS is tough on it (refractor lines and print marks ...for fleer basketball issues). In general, I find a BGS 9 moderns cards superior to PSA 9's. I've cracked and subbed many BGS 8.5's (which were specifically afflicted with the above ailments) and pulled PSA 10's. Like always buy the card not the holder, I would rather have a better card in a lesser holder for my PC than overpay for a flip. And I will admit that's not always the way I looked at it, a registry is a powerful drug. For vintage stuff I use PSA (Registry, availability of cards, collectors preference).

RipublicaninMass · February 17, 2012 1:23AM

BGSis much better for post-factory sheet cut cards

Meatloaf · February 17, 2012 1:40AM

Everyone makes a big deal about the BGS sub grades and crossing over just to turn a BGS 8.5 into a PSA 9. However, few of these people factor in the short run costs of this endeavor. If you pay to have a raw card graded by Beckett (to s/h, fees, and return s/h) and receive it as an 8.5, why then spend more money to resub for crossover in an effort to get a 9? The value of the card is assumed to me mid-range in this case, so you would either break even or lose money in the short run (after you once again pay for to s/h, fees, and return s/h for PSA cross). And on top of all of this, you may not even get the cross you want! If long run vision is your thing, then I can see executing this process with the intend of maxing value 20 years down the line. However, it is a pain to sub + wait for return from BGS and the resub + wait for return just to get a 0.5 increase in a grade on a $20-$50 card. I could may be see this for a 1986-87 MJ RC, but not junk. Overall, I enjoy BGS for one single reason: the holders. They are consistent, stirdy, and have ey appeal. The holders also accept the thicker modern memorabilia cards; BGS places modern relic cards into the same holders as standard sized cards...PSA does not do this and as a result, losing my business every time with I want to submit a relic for grading PSA uses the ugly, large. and bulky holders for relic cards. Eye appeal is very important to me, so I submit all large relics only to BGS so the holder does not distract people from the beauty of the card. In the end, I think this is the biggest advantage of using BGS, especially if you want to cross from PSA to BGS, other than simply getting your cards returned to you per the exact timelines they put out rather than paying for an estimated 20 business days and on day 40+ you have no word on the status of your order. However, in the end game, like others have said, it is about what you like. If you dislike PSA red flips, then go w/ the BGS and their sub grades on flips. But just don't crossover in an effort to save 0.5 on a modern card. A waste of time and more risk that the card may get lost in the mail and not even grade higher than you wanted.

Also, you mention PSA vs BGS in terms of VCP. Not to beat a dead horse from previous threads, but VCP is not a predictive model for long term value on cards. It can tell you what just happened, but predicts absolutely nothing. So if all you are doing is buying/selling based on VCP, then you are spinning your wheels. No one buys stocks in a market based on what happened in the last 30 days. Rather, they use predictive models (and sometimes gut feelings) on the future of specific stocks performance in future markets. I recommend the same for sports memorabilia. For Example, I could give a crap if the VCP on a PSA 8 MJ RC is $700ish. I have sold 3 in the last 60 days for $823.23, $823.23, and $900. People are making predictions about the card's future value...they don't care what it just sold for...they care that they got the exact card they wanted (no junk) and predict in the long run it will have greater value. And most importantly, they are 100% happy with what they got, why they got it, and the customer service provided.....none of that is accounted for in VCP. VCP is a “guide,” not a bible. The best it can do is make you as the buyer “feel good” or in some cases avoid “buyer’s remorse” when purchasing a card in the here and now by getting a price at or below VCP. It won’t account for poor customer service, high s/h charges, poor packaging, taxes, fees, customs duties, scratches on casings, players popping on drug tests, scams, etc….blah, blah, blah, blah….and I am spent.

Meatloaf

MeteoriteGuy · February 17, 2012 2:22AM

"Everyone makes a big deal about the BGS sub grades and crossing over just to turn a BGS 8.5 into a PSA 9."

I find it funny when people do this selling a card that goes for much more as a PSA 9. At the last show I was at the dealer was trying to get me to buy BGS 8.5 Jerry Rice rookies, which he claimed could be crossed into PSA 9's or 10's. At $65 each he was basically offering to give me a couple hundred or more for taking the cards from him. There are a ton of cards one could, or should be, making a killing on if one truely believes that. I don't see anyone doing it.

"Also, you mention PSA vs BGS in terms of VCP. Not to beat a dead horse from previous threads, but VCP is not a predictive model for long term value on cards."

No, but what it does show is PSA cards outsell BGS in over 9 out of 10 times.

epatmythes · February 17, 2012 2:48AM

<< <i>PSA is more lenient on modern surface, BGS is tough on it (refractor lines and print marks ...for fleer basketball issues). In general, I find a BGS 9 moderns cards superior to PSA 9's. I've cracked and subbed many BGS 8.5's (which were specifically afflicted with the above ailments) and pulled PSA 10's. Like always buy the card not the holder, I would rather have a better card in a lesser holder for my PC than overpay for a flip. And I will admit that's not always the way I looked at it, a registry is a powerful drug. For vintage stuff I use PSA (Registry, availability of cards, collectors preference). >>

Ditto here on subbing BGS 8.5 and getting a PSA 10 back!

However, with that said... and maybe it's just my luck, but I've never had a BGS 9 (with an 8.5 centering subgrade) cross to a PSA 9, and I've never had a BGS 9.5 (with subgrades of 9 on centering or corners) cross to a PSA 10.

My general rule of thumb with buying BGS cards to crack and sub to PSA is to only expect a straight cross if the centering and corners subgrades are equivalent or greater than the cumulative card grade.

digicat · February 17, 2012 2:59AM

<< <i>"Also, you mention PSA vs BGS in terms of VCP. Not to beat a dead horse from previous threads, but VCP is not a predictive model for long term value on cards." >>

True, but it's good estimate for the short term, as in "How much should I expect to pay for X card if I want to go buy it right now?" Of course, if you're dealing with low pop cards, new PSA registries opening up, or player events, there's no model you could possibly create that would tell you anything.

Meatloaf · February 17, 2012 3:32AM

<< <i>

<< <i>"Also, you mention PSA vs BGS in terms of VCP. Not to beat a dead horse from previous threads, but VCP is not a predictive model for long term value on cards." >>

True, but it's good estimate for the short term, as in "How much should I expect to pay for X card if I want to go buy it right now?" Of course, if you're dealing with low pop cards, new PSA registries opening up, or player events, there's no model you could possibly create that would tell you anything. >>

Agreed on low pop issues. I have this issue a lot when selling. Buyers have wanted to pay me what the "price guide" said for a card, even thought the item is pop 1 PSA 10 or BGS 9.5/10. They get all upset because my pricing did not agree with their bible. Low pop cards are outliers that screw up statistical models. Perfect real world example for VCP.

VCP/Beckett/SMR are great “guiding tools” based on the assumptions of each model. Not too get into the weeds, but few people understand the assumptions for each guide and make inaccurate or false claims concerning the framework and objectives of VCP/Beckett/SMR. Each "guide" makes their own assumptions; thus, each guide produces different pricing. The one common thread is that these models focus on the past and in theory, the present. However, they do not at all do anything for you concerning the future. If you collect for fun, the guides are great to enable you to negotiate cards to competitive or below guide value prices. If you collect to invest, they have limited long run applicability. What does all of this mean? If you are looking to cross, do not do it solely because VCP says it is a good idea right now (i.e. PSA sells more than BGS right now, on average - not even sure if that is true, but someone referenced it here). VCP may be a contributing factor to your cross decision, but I would focus on more tangible information (your personal preferences, collecting objectives, eye appeal of holders, registry status, customer service, s/h fees, pricing for crossing, other fixed costs, the attributes of the card inside the flip, etc.) before committing to a cross from BGS to PSA. Final Word: Buy the card, not the flip....VCP can tell you which flips sell for what, but it can't tell you anything about what is inside the flip. This is the heart of the matter: the card itself. For example, if you are a centering addict, may be a BGS 8 1986-87 Fleer MJ with a sub for 9.0-9.5 centering is better than a PSA 8 version of the same card that clearly shows a lack of centering that does not appeal to you.

Meatloaf

MeteoriteGuy · February 17, 2012 5:12AM

I know you claimed the "Final Word", but then you also falsely said, "....VCP can tell you which flips sell for what, but it can't tell you anything about what is inside the flip. This is the heart of the matter: the card itself. For example, if you are a centering addict, may be a BGS 8 1986-87 Fleer MJ with a sub for 9.0-9.5 centering is better than a PSA 8 version of the same card that clearly shows a lack of centering that does not appeal to you."

VCP archives the photos, you can compare the centering of cards. It also keeps seller names, so you can look up feedback.

Also, VCP is not an assumption. It is factual information on what the card has sold for. You could agrue that people make assumptions off of that. I would more say, people use it as a guide. Nobody expects to buy and sell at exactly VCP average.

But yes, in general, you should almost always buy the card, not the grade/grader.

PSA vs BGS for modern cards

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