Posnanski on Dewey and the HOF
markj111
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in Sports Talk
The article is about HOF standards in general. The part about Evans is copied below.
http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2012/02/3000-hits.html#more
You could argue, persuasively I think, that Dwight Evans was a better offensive player than Lou Brock. Yes, Brock's batting average was 20 points higher, but Evans on-base percentage was 27 points higher, his slugging percentage was 60 points higher, his OPS+ was 127 to Brock's 109.
But Brock got 3,000 hits -- Evans did not even reach 2,500. How did that happen? Well, it really comes down to something simple: Yes, Brock had the better batting average, but that's not even 200 hits of difference between the two. No, the much bigger difference is that Brock 1,300 more at-bats -- two plus years worth.
And how did he get more at-bats? Well, one is a statistical quirk: Brock walked 550 fewer times than Evans, and of course those walks don't count as at-bats. Here's a statistic that might blow your mind: Dwight Evans actually reached base more often in his career than Lou Brock.
But, beyond that, Brock was a leadoff hitter for the vast majority of his career -- a leadoff hitter because he was such an amazing and wonderful base stealer. Evans, meanwhile -- probably because of his versatility and his amenable nature -- hit ALL OVER the batting order. Evans in his career had more than 400 plate appearances in every spot in the lineup.
So that made a pretty big difference. Brock, hitting in the leadoff spot, would get 60 to 70 more plate appearances per year than Evans in their primes. Brock had seven seasons with more than 700 plate appearances. Evans, despite being a durable player, had only three.
I'm really not trying to compare Brock and Evans as players -- Bill James wrote a wonderful piece at Grantland about Evans as a Hall of Fame candidate if you are interested -- but to talk specifically about 3,000 hits. Brock, because of his great ability to steal base and a nice series of batting averages, was penciled into the top of the lineup for many years. The at-bats piled up. So the hits piled up. And Brock got to 3,000. And he sailed into the Hall of Fame first ballot.
http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2012/02/3000-hits.html#more
You could argue, persuasively I think, that Dwight Evans was a better offensive player than Lou Brock. Yes, Brock's batting average was 20 points higher, but Evans on-base percentage was 27 points higher, his slugging percentage was 60 points higher, his OPS+ was 127 to Brock's 109.
But Brock got 3,000 hits -- Evans did not even reach 2,500. How did that happen? Well, it really comes down to something simple: Yes, Brock had the better batting average, but that's not even 200 hits of difference between the two. No, the much bigger difference is that Brock 1,300 more at-bats -- two plus years worth.
And how did he get more at-bats? Well, one is a statistical quirk: Brock walked 550 fewer times than Evans, and of course those walks don't count as at-bats. Here's a statistic that might blow your mind: Dwight Evans actually reached base more often in his career than Lou Brock.
But, beyond that, Brock was a leadoff hitter for the vast majority of his career -- a leadoff hitter because he was such an amazing and wonderful base stealer. Evans, meanwhile -- probably because of his versatility and his amenable nature -- hit ALL OVER the batting order. Evans in his career had more than 400 plate appearances in every spot in the lineup.
So that made a pretty big difference. Brock, hitting in the leadoff spot, would get 60 to 70 more plate appearances per year than Evans in their primes. Brock had seven seasons with more than 700 plate appearances. Evans, despite being a durable player, had only three.
I'm really not trying to compare Brock and Evans as players -- Bill James wrote a wonderful piece at Grantland about Evans as a Hall of Fame candidate if you are interested -- but to talk specifically about 3,000 hits. Brock, because of his great ability to steal base and a nice series of batting averages, was penciled into the top of the lineup for many years. The at-bats piled up. So the hits piled up. And Brock got to 3,000. And he sailed into the Hall of Fame first ballot.
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