Overproduction killed the hobby in the early 90's ?
edmundfitzgerald
Posts: 4,306 ✭✭
Did it not ? Guys would walk around shows in the early 90's with hundreds upon hundreds of rookie cards, and realized that dealers
stopped buying because there were just too much of it going around. Heck, even guys in their early 20's had at least 10-100 Gregg
Jefferies and Eric Lindros rookie cards.
What year did the hobby come to a screaching halt ? What year did card overnight card shops begin to shut down ?
What year did the card shows begin to lose attendance, and many fall by the wayside.
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I got out November of 1990. My lease expired and I could not keep up with all the sets.
That was around the time of the error craze.
Add the increased use of the Internet in the later 1990's and the introduction of eBay, and the show market was pretty much becoming a thing of the past. Dealers could sell online and not waste a weekend at a show and not have the expense of hotels, travel, showcases and stagnant inventory.
As far as a specific date, I'm thinking the death knell coincided with the baseball strike of 1994 and was revived, albeit for a short period, during the home run barrage of Sosa and McGwire and Ripken's pursuit of Gehrig's consecutive game record during the summer and fall of 1998.
<< <i>What year did the hobby come to a screaching halt ? What year did card overnight card shops begin to shut down ?
What year did the card shows begin to lose attendance, and many fall by the wayside. >>
From what I recall, the thing that started the downhill turn was when, in 1999, UD started short printing(as chase cards) their top prospect/draft pick rookie cards. Bowman/Bowman Chrome soon afterward started doing the same. People like myself quickly tired of dishing out $50 to $100 a box to have nothing more than a slight chance at pulling the rookie card we were looking to pull. At that point, I totally stopped buying the new cards as they came out.
so many different brands/packs to buy at all kinds of prices that it became hard to put sets together by
buying packs. It also become very difficult to buy product to sell in shops, you had dozens of product, and
every customer wanted something different.
Also, once wholesale clubs starting selling cases of product, it hurt the small card shop (like mine) in the
late 80's. They were selling cheaper than I was buying through candy wholesalers and other dealers.
I closed my card shop in 91, did the show thing for a while with all my old inventory and then found Ebay.....
In 89 hot baseball was Upper deck, 90 it was Leaf, 91 Stadium Club, 92 Bowman, and then it just got crazy and
I was glad I was out.
A guess? Over-production - too many companies - sets - inserts - confusion - disappointment - may have been ignited by the strike in 1994 IMO.
Quote by a card shop owner:
<< <i>My sales from ‘88 to ‘92 were $10,000 to $13,000 a month, and the cost of goods was only $1,000 to $2,000 a month. Then they started putting out so much product, raising the price on packs and putting chase cards that caused people to stop trying to make sets. Kids ran away. Hobbyists got aggravated because they couldn’t afford everything, and speculators backed off because of oversaturation. By ‘94 my sales were $3,000 a month, and new products were up to $5,000 a month. I had to get out.
- Bruce Gershenoff, a former baseball card shop owner >>
When there started to be multiple companies putting out multiple sets along with their parallel sets, sub-sets and ultra-rare inserts, I was done collecting the new stuff.
<< <i>I would have to say the the 94 strike didn't help baseball one bit. By then, all the friends that were collecting with me growing up weren't into collecting anymore but started different hobbies such as playing baseball for there local recreational parks, buying cd's (Nirvana/STP) and playing guitars and getting gf's. 94 was the year that I knew the hobby was changing. Also happened to be the year that I bought my last pack so I also said goodbye to baseball cards. >>
Sosa and McGwire brought collectors back in a hurry.
1985 Topps racks were going for 20.00+, 90 Leaf Series I boxes were selling for 350.00+
I remember every person(average joe that decided he wanted a McGwire rookie) was paying around 250.00 a pop.
<< <i>
<< <i>I would have to say the the 94 strike didn't help baseball one bit. By then, all the friends that were collecting with me growing up weren't into collecting anymore but started different hobbies such as playing baseball for there local recreational parks, buying cd's (Nirvana/STP) and playing guitars and getting gf's. 94 was the year that I knew the hobby was changing. Also happened to be the year that I bought my last pack so I also said goodbye to baseball cards. >>
Sosa and McGwire brought collectors back in a hurry.
1985 Topps racks were going for 20.00+, 90 Leaf Series I boxes were selling for 350.00+
I remember every person(average joe that decided he wanted a McGwire rookie) was paying around 250.00 a pop. >>
Yep. This is why the '85T boxes are still over $70 (when they certainly shouldn't be)
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
By 1992 the environment at weekend shows got really weird. Less shows, less people, more new product, higher prices. The quantity-based buying habits that had supported the boom were replaced by scarcity-based buying habits, and that undermined the confidence that casual collectors had in the cards they had purchased a year or two years prior. Raw prices on recent vintage (post 1969) boomed as the buying habits changed in 1992-93, and the prices for recent vintage peaked a couple of years after the initial boom for casual collectors.
I got out in 1993. I saw no future in the way I had sold cards previously and had no interest in breaking down new product for big hits and didn't have access to high quality vintage cards. I sold my 30+ 5000 count boxes of cards from my PC and selling inventory from 1985-1992 for 2 cents a card. I was very lucky.
So to summarize, the hobby shift from quantity to scarcity based buying habits killed the boom, but nothing will ever kill the hobby for good. There are always collectors.
-Nathanael
Year -- # of Sets
1980 -- 40
1981 -- 48
1982 -- 54
1983 -- 77
1984 -- 81
1985 -- 72
1986 -- 131
1987 -- 132
1988 -- 185
1989 -- 165
1990 -- 184
1991 -- 193
1992 -- 252
1993 -- 278
1994 -- 267
1995 -- 277
1996 -- 311
1997 -- 336
1998 -- 434
1999 -- 423
2000 -- 531
I mean honestly, how many place were there to buy cards (shops/partial shops, not k mart etc) in 1985? I can only remember one in my area. By the time 1990 came around, there were 3 within a 5 mile drive and by 1993, there were 5...and I live in a smaller town.
Granted, overproduction, premium products, chase cards, etc may have been the spark in the proverbial gas tank, but in the end, I think it was the money chasers that left and went on to new things....like oil futures
<< <i>Like most collectibles, the truly valuable stuff is that which wasn't produced as a collectible, but for actual use (coins, stamps, cards (gum), tulips). Once the balance shifts from the consumer to the collector/investor and the producer shifts toward production with the collector/investor in mind, the market is bound to crash because that which made the item valuable (its rarity due to it being largely consumed) no longer exists. >>
This is the heart of the matter.
The overproduction was a result of the idea being put forth on a grand scale that baseball cards were investments, and great wealth was waiting for you by holding those cards for many years. Demand increased and cards were sold as collectibles, not as a throw in any more with gum. You could say that the cards were a victim of their own success. Much like the housing market, a correction was inevitable. At least everyone needs a roof over their head, not so much an '89 UD Griffey
working on 1956 Topps in PSA 6-7
<< <i>I know that the first Topps Stadium Club packs were too rich for my blood. Not sure which year they came out? ('91/'92?). What were they, $3-$5 a pack? For me, personally, I was into the hobby from '80 through '90/'91, left the hobby, came back in '95 for a few years, left again, came back in '04 and haven't left (yet)... >>
When you do feel free to mail me your refractor sets, you have my address, thanks.
<< <i>I know that the first Topps Stadium Club packs were too rich for my blood. Not sure which year they came out? ('91/'92?). What were they, $3-$5 a pack? For me, personally, I was into the hobby from '80 through '90/'91, left the hobby, came back in '95 for a few years, left again, came back in '04 and haven't left (yet)... >>
I made a killing on the first year stadium club cards. Baseball, football, hockey..it didnt matter! I worked for K-Mart at the time and I remember that each store got an allotment of at least 5 cases and I made an arrangement to buy all five cases from my store WITH my 10% discount. The retail price was much much less than the going rate being paid in card shops and I bought all I could, even from other stores to fulfill the shop requests. The hockey Stadium Club was perceived as super scarce but I had no problem getting rid of nearly 20 cases for top dollar. I knew that if each K-Mart was getting 5 cases of each sport that this stuff could not be as limited as the hobby thought it was going to be. So the K-Mart store managers were happy to make a huge sale (and a few extra bucks from the kick back I gave them)and I was even happier to make a huge profit myself. The card shop owners were happy to pay the going rate for these boxes because they could not get them from distributors and they easily sold them to pack rippers. Of course we all know what happened with the prices on this stuff!
Now if only I had the same knack for picking stocks or other investments I wouldn't be a 48 year old full time employee/college student.
If "video killed the radio star" - then "inserts" - production driven rarity collectibles may have killed the card business.
But - I do agree - with those who believe - the investor mentality didn't do the hobby any good.
I wonder how ebay played into this?
from time to time, and we will always have pick and valleys BUT make no mistake the sports card hobby will NEVER DIE!!.
Jose
I remember Topps came out about the time of opening day. When Fleer and Donruss entered the market, the release dates seemed to move forward each year to beat out the others.
<< <i>What would have happened if Topps were able to keep their "monopoly" on the bubble gum card market? i.e. Only one set per sport per year with the old cardboard stock and horrible centering on cards.
I remember Topps came out about the time of opening day. When Fleer and Donruss entered the market, the release dates seemed to move forward each year to beat out the others. >>
For a few years during the boom I felt like the product Topps was putting out was the least desirable of all. I thought Upper Deck had such a strangle hold on the industry that Topps would never regain the top spot.
<< <i>Actually the sports card hobby keeps evolving all the time, no it hasn't been killed and it will never die!! many greety pretenders get eliminated
from time to time, and we will always have pick and valleys BUT make no mistake the sports card hobby will NEVER DIE!!.
Jose >>
Totally agree with the hobby evolving.
I think the use of "kill" is more rhetorical. Back around 1992 - I believe - the new card industry was grossing around a Billion dollars! I think I remember reading that the industry is more in the 3 to 400 million range?
The hobby has to be better defined in this issue.
I don't collect much in the world of cards anymore - but I'm collector all the way!
Getting a fix was easy. We had a small Friday evening show at the community center. Saturday and Sunday the malls had a rotating show. Twice a month, a really large show at the trade center was the place to be. You would have thought it was Christmas Eve shopping with all the people.
Card shops were everywhere. Meyers had one whole isle devoted to cards and merchandise. Kmart and Toys R US also sold a lot of cards. Every checkout isle, gas station and hole in the wall sold packs.
Too many sets by too many companies started the decline. The strike was another nail in the coffin. Completing a set is the goal for many collectors. It became harder because even the base sets were super sized along with inserts and chase cards. Prices went up. Some got discouraged and quit.
Glad I was able to experience it because I doubt it will ever come back.
Jim
<< <i>
<< <i>Actually the sports card hobby keeps evolving all the time, no it hasn't been killed and it will never die!! many greety pretenders get eliminated
from time to time, and we will always have pick and valleys BUT make no mistake the sports card hobby will NEVER DIE!!.
Jose >>
Totally agree with the hobby evolving.
I think the use of "kill" is more rhetorical. Back around 1992 - I believe - the new card industry was grossing around a Billion dollars! I think I remember reading that the industry is more in the 3 to 400 million range?
The hobby has to be better defined in this issue.
I don't collect much in the world of cards anymore - but I'm collector all the way! >>
Correct. You can compare any field, product, hobby or pretty much subject with it's peak, and come up with less then numbers.
Cards being hirer priced now is likely a good thing, since most are moved through the internet. I remember when cards that booked at $0.50 or more always went in the nice pile. I'm not sure I would like a hobby where I paid $2.00 shipping on $0.50 items.
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.