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The Ageing of Baseball Players-Posnanski
markj111
Posts: 2,921 ✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
I highly recommend the article at http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2012/02/aging-with-chart.html#more
The first big decline in the number of great seasons comes at age 30.
The first big decline in the number of great seasons comes at age 30.
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The number of players that played MLB when they were 26 is about 7,500.
The number of players that played MLB when they were 32 is about 3,500.
A better chart would show the average WAR for each age.
<< <i>Isn't that chart severely flawed?
The number of players that played MLB when they were 26 is about 7,500.
The number of players that played MLB when they were 32 is about 3,500.
A better chart would show the average WAR for each age. >>
How is it flawed? Assuming your numbers are correct, they offer additional evidence that players are better at 26 than at 32.
<< <i>
<< <i>Isn't that chart severely flawed?
The number of players that played MLB when they were 26 is about 7,500.
The number of players that played MLB when they were 32 is about 3,500.
A better chart would show the average WAR for each age. >>
How is it flawed? Assuming your numbers are correct, they offer additional evidence that players are better at 26 than at 32. >>
How do you figure that?
His chart shows the number of great seasons for each age. 7,500 26 year-olds have had a chance to have a great season, but only 3,500 32 year-olds have had a chance.
According to his chart, the number of 26 year-olds that had great seasons is about 115. That's 115 out of 7,500 or 1.5%.
According to his chart, the number of 32 year-olds that had great seasons is about 70. That's 70 out of 3,500 or 2.0%.
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Ralph
According to his chart, the number of 26 year-olds that had great seasons is about 115. That's 115 out of 7,500 or 1.5%.
According to his chart, the number of 32 year-olds that had great seasons is about 70. That's 70 out of 3,500 or 2.0%.
There are more people in the Bigs at age 26 because they are better, as a rule, than 32 year olds. Many players in the league at 26 are gone by 32 because they are not good enough.
<< <i>I remember an expert saying the peak age for a baseball player was 29. He was saying that Dale Murphy was almost that age and he expected him to just be tremendous. Don't remember who the expert was. That seems to be about right. There are some late bloomers and some who you know are HOF bound when they are rookies. Logic would say at 26, three years before peak and at 32, 3 years after peak there may not be a big difference between them other than the 26 year old has more good years ahead of him. >>
Sabermetrics in general, and Bill James in particular, have plenty of evidence that a player's peak (on average) is at age 27.
<< <i>His chart shows the number of great seasons for each age. 7,500 26 year-olds have had a chance to have a great season, but only 3,500 32 year-olds have had a chance.
According to his chart, the number of 26 year-olds that had great seasons is about 115. That's 115 out of 7,500 or 1.5%.
According to his chart, the number of 32 year-olds that had great seasons is about 70. That's 70 out of 3,500 or 2.0%.
There are more people in the Bigs at age 26 because they are better, as a rule, than 32 year olds. Many players in the league at 26 are gone by 32 because they are not good enough. >>
That's probably true, but that doesn't change the fact that his chart is flawed.
I feel like a dog chasing its tail. How is it flawed?
The reason it looks like the older players have a better percentage than the younger, is that only the very best players are still playing at 32. Many of the players that were merely very good are retired by 32.
That's my thought on it anyway.
Joe