Bill James on Dewey Evans and the HOF

markj111 · February 9, 2012 7:10AM

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7555836/an-open-letter-mlb-hall-fame-dwight-evans-rightful-place-cooperstown

Excerpt:

Let us start with the proposition that Dwight Evans is one of the most underrated players in baseball history. There are certain things that make players underrated. The most important of these is that a player who does several things well will always be underrated compared to a specialist, just because of the way the human mind works. We absorb simple concepts more readily than complex ones. If a player hits .325, if he hits 40 homers, if he steals 70 bases, we get that immediately. If a player does many things well but no one thing spectacularly well, he may have equal value but it takes longer for the public to catch on.

Dwight Evans was a player who did many things very well — hitting almost 400 home runs, drawing a lot of walks, winning a long string of Gold Gloves, and even registering pretty decent batting averages, .290 or better five times in eight years. His batting average, however, was not his specialty, particularly early in his career, and given that batting average was at that time regarded as the center of the baseball universe, so to speak, this also caused him to be underrated.

Justacommeman · February 9, 2012 1:40PM

He was one of my favorite players and had a cannon for an arm. Great eye. MJ

DWest · February 9, 2012 11:48PM

He was Dale Murphy with a dozen less HRs and 2 less MVPs. Doesn't belong.

PowderedH2O · February 10, 2012 12:21AM

I see no comparison. Evans had a better overall career than Murphy. His peak was not as publicized, but his overall numbers are better. I don't know if Evans belongs in the HOF either, but I'd put him in ahead of Murphy. Of course, I believe Fred Lynn was better than either one of them.

DWest · February 10, 2012 2:21AM

<< I see no comparison. Evans had a better overall career than Murphy. >>

2 MVPs, Lead the league in HRs, RBIs and Slugging percentage twice each compared to Dewey leading the league in HRs once (only 22 HRs) and none on the others? Obviously he was much better.

Don't give me the Gold Glove argument. Murphy won it 5 straight years at a time when some of the best OFs of the era were playing (Dawson, Willie McGee, Eric Davis, Andy VanSlyke). Who'd Evans have to beat? Rick Miller? Sixto Lexcano? Give me a break.

Does Murphy belong in the Hall? I don't think so but he definitely belongs before Evans.

PowderedH2O · February 10, 2012 5:11AM

Even without the fielding, Evans had a better career. He didn't lead the league in a lot of things. He just went out and kicked butt year after year. Murphy was great for a few years and lousy for a few also. Evans was more consistent. But, to be honest, I wouldn't put either of them in the Hall.

ernie11 · February 10, 2012 7:00AM

The thing that amazed me about Evans was that his best hitting years seemed to be near the end of his career, not the typical arc that you see with many players.

Probstein123 · February 12, 2012 7:46AM

you find his RC in common boxes, enough said

JoeBanzai · February 12, 2012 12:21PM

In looking at three players mentioned, I would give the edge to Evans over Lynn because he had about 2500 more plate appearances than Fred. Lynn's offensive numbers are the best overall highest BA, SLG and OPS+ of all three, while Evans leads in OBP. From 1982-87 Murphy had a great run, better than Evans but not by much. Lynn had monster years in 1975 and 1979, especially '79.

I tend to put more emphasis on overall career numbers rather than "peak" years.

When you look close, Evans seems to blow the other two away in consistency. I don't know if it's because he was able to avoid injury, but he was incredibly consistent from year to year and yes, his "old man years" were very close to his "peak" years.

Lynn was probably the best player, but his last four years were pretty bad. Murphy's last six showed a big decline as well.

I'll take Dewey!

Joe

markj111 · February 12, 2012 1:47PM

<< you find his RC in common boxes, enough said >>

I'll take all you have. The Evans Rookie is one of the highest priced cards in the set per VCP.

Tabe · February 12, 2012 4:23PM

<< When you look close, Evans seems to blow the other two away in consistency. >>

I agree. 8 straight years never topping 70 RBI to start his career was remarkably consistent.

Tabe

PowderedH2O · February 12, 2012 10:16PM

And we all know what a valuable stat RBI's is...

DWest · February 13, 2012 12:33AM

<< And we all know what a valuable stat RBI's is... >>

And 15 straight years of never hitting .300. Guess that stat doesn't matter either.

markj111 · February 13, 2012 3:37AM

And 15 straight years of never hitting .300. Guess that stat doesn't matter either. >>

Correct-it does not matter.

PowderedH2O · February 13, 2012 4:25AM

Six times in the top ten in the AL in on base percentage is a bit more important to me. Four times in the top four of OPS+ is also very impressive. Six times in the top three in Walks. Seven times in the top ten in Runs Created. Basically, Evans was a guy that had good home run power, got on base 225-250 times a season, and played a gold glove outfield. Not quite a HOFer, but probably in the top 25 or so of guys that aren't in that are eligible.

Darrell Evans is another guy that comes to mind that has a mediocre batting average and RBI numbers, but did so many other things to make himself a valuable player. If Schmidt had been an American Leaguer, Evans would have several Gold Gloves, as he was the second or third best 3rd baseman defensively for many years.

Joe Morgan only hit .300 twice. He only had 100 RBI's once. I'd rate him as one of the greatest players of all-time.

DWest · February 13, 2012 4:31AM

<< Joe Morgan only hit .300 twice. He only had 100 RBI's once. I'd rate him as one of the greatest players of all-time. >>

Funny, he is one of the HOFers that usually ends up on the overrated list.

digicat · February 13, 2012 5:34AM

<< Joe Morgan only hit .300 twice. He only had 100 RBI's once. I'd rate him as one of the greatest players of all-time. >>

Morgan played 2nd base. Offensive standards of "greatness" are lower for 2nd baseman than they are for outfielders.

DWest · February 13, 2012 5:44AM

<< 

<< Joe Morgan only hit .300 twice. He only had 100 RBI's once. I'd rate him as one of the greatest players of all-time. >>

Morgan played 2nd base. Offensive standards of "greatness" are lower for 2nd baseman than they are for outfielders. >>

And if he played on any other team at that time, he wouldn't be a HOFer.

markj111 · February 13, 2012 6:35AM

<< 

<< 

<< Joe Morgan only hit .300 twice. He only had 100 RBI's once. I'd rate him as one of the greatest players of all-time. >>

Morgan played 2nd base. Offensive standards of "greatness" are lower for 2nd baseman than they are for outfielders. >>

And if he played on any other team at that time, he wouldn't be a HOFer. >>

I am quite glad you made the above statement. I can now ignore your comments knowing that I have not missed anything useful. You are entitled to your own opinion, but I will listen only to those based in reality. OTOH, maybe you are just a troll. Either way, you are off my radar.

DWest · February 13, 2012 7:22AM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< Joe Morgan only hit .300 twice. He only had 100 RBI's once. I'd rate him as one of the greatest players of all-time. >>

Morgan played 2nd base. Offensive standards of "greatness" are lower for 2nd baseman than they are for outfielders. >>

And if he played on any other team at that time, he wouldn't be a HOFer. >>

I am quite glad you made the above statement. I can now ignore your comments knowing that I have not missed anything useful. You are entitled to your own opinion, but I will listen only to those based in reality. OTOH, maybe you are just a troll. Either way, you are off my radar. >>

Removes his 8 seasons in Cincy which you have to agree was at worst in the top 3 of the best teams in the NL for that period and his stats are garbage.

Honestly, part of my dislike for Morgan is his horrible broadcasting and he is one of the most arrogant former players I have ever met.

PowderedH2O · February 13, 2012 9:50AM

Remove his 8 years in Cincy? Huh? Let's do that with all of the players that played on great offensive teams. Let's remove the years in New York for Babe Ruth. Or the years in Milwaukee for Henry Aaron.

Dude... Joe Morgan is not only NOT one of the most overrated players in the Hall of Fame, I would say he is one of the most UNDERRATED. People just look at batting average and rbi's. Morgan walked 1865 times, while striking out only 1015 times. That is a HUGE lopsided positive stat. He stole 689 bases while being caught only 162 times. Another big plus. He has a lifetime on base percentage near .400, while he played the bulk of his career in the offensively challenged late 60's and 70's. To put that into perspective, Joe Morgan was on base more often than Rod Carew (who hit .328 lifetime). And he was a fantastic defensive second baseman. Bill James rates him as the greatest second baseman of all-time. Higher than Rogers Hornsby and his .358 batting average.

zendude · February 13, 2012 2:07PM

<< Remove his 8 years in Cincy? Huh? Let's do that with all of the players that played on great offensive teams. Let's remove the years in New York for Babe Ruth. Or the years in Milwaukee for Henry Aaron.

Dude... Joe Morgan is not only NOT one of the most overrated players in the Hall of Fame, I would say he is one of the most UNDERRATED. People just look at batting average and rbi's. Morgan walked 1865 times, while striking out only 1015 times. That is a HUGE lopsided positive stat. He stole 689 bases while being caught only 162 times. Another big plus. He has a lifetime on base percentage near .400, while he played the bulk of his career in the offensively challenged late 60's and 70's. To put that into perspective, Joe Morgan was on base more often than Rod Carew (who hit .328 lifetime). And he was a fantastic defensive second baseman. Bill James rates him as the greatest second baseman of all-time. Higher than Rogers Hornsby and his .358 batting average. >>

Joe Morgan was a fantastic ballplayer. I totally agree with your assessment.

JoeBanzai · February 13, 2012 11:34PM

If you take away the eight years Harmon Killebrew hit over 40 Home runs he wasn't that much of a slugger.

Joe

DWest · February 14, 2012 1:00AM

<< Bill James rates him as the greatest second baseman of all-time. >>

Wow! Then it must be true since he thinks Dwight Evans is a HOFer

PowderedH2O · February 14, 2012 2:09AM

I guess so then.

digicat · February 14, 2012 3:05AM

Take away Koufax's last 4 seasons, and he's a nobody.

estang · February 14, 2012 2:39PM

Agree he is underrated. He may be in the common box, but he's not a common.

Fred Lynn was great in certain years, but missed a lot of games due to injury -- A Lot!

Steve Garvey, Al Oliver, Tim Raines, Lynn, Dick Allen and Dale Murphy were very solid players.

JoeBanzai · February 14, 2012 3:11PM

Who was better, Dewey Evans or Carl Yastrzemski? Please look close before answering!

Joe

digicat · February 14, 2012 3:55PM

<< Who was better, Dewey Evans or Carl Yastrzemski? >>

Evans: .272/.370/.470, OPS+ 127; 10569 PA
0 batting titles, 2446 hits, 385 hr
3 All Star games, 8 Gold Gloves, 2 top 5 MVP finishes (0 wins).

Yaz: .285/.379/.462, OPS+ 129; 13991 pa
3 batting titles 3419 hits, 452 HR
18 All Star games, 7 Gold Gloves, 2 top 5 MVP finishes (1 win)
1 TRIPLE CROWN (last player to win)

Probstein123 · February 14, 2012 8:27PM

yaz was better , except for the time he slid 2 feet short of second base in 1983

JoeBanzai · February 15, 2012 7:20AM

I don't think you are looking close enough!

Batting titles are nice, but don't prove that much with guys hitting 400 career home runs. Both players lifetime on base percentage was close with Yaz winning by .009.

I will agree that Yaz certainly deserved the MVP in 1967, but he TIED Killebrew for the home run lead with more at bats in his Triple Crown year.

All star appearances are also debatable as they can be popularity contests. Yaz certainly didn't deserve to go in '71, '72, '75, '78 or '79. Looks like Reggie Jackson and Dave Winfield were taking turns beating Dewey out for all-star games. '83 and '84 Reggie's numbers were not as good as Evans' and in '85-'87 Evans' numbers were better than Winfield's.

Using my favorite statistic, OPS lets take a look;

Both players had 9 seasons above their average of .840

Both players had 4 seasons above .900

Both had 3 seasons between .800 and .840

Yaz had 11 seasons below .800, Evans had 8

Yaz had 2 seasons over 1.00 Evans had none

I will admit that Yaz had those two GREAT years and one more year of 40 home runs (in which he batted .255) other than that, he averaged 16 home runs a year. From '78-'89 Evans never hit less than 20 except for one year (with 18).

I give Evans a big edge in his consistency and Yaz a big edge in "monster" years with two and a half. Both were stellar defensive players. No edge for either.

I'll take Dewey!

Joe

CEOBIDMC · February 15, 2012 7:27AM

look at the era that Yaz played compared to evans, fewer teams, better pitching, lower offensive totals.

JoeBanzai · February 15, 2012 8:14AM

Yaz began his career in the early 1960's when expansion had watered down the pitching, he also played in the American League that was much weaker than the National at that time. If anything Evans played in a tougher era against better players.

Joe

Mickey71 · February 15, 2012 8:25AM

Evans only trailed Yaz by 1000 hits. Evans must be better.

JoeBanzai · February 16, 2012 12:40AM

Number of hits is included in OPS in case you didn't know. Yaz had 3000 more at bats than Evans.

Using your logic Yaz was better than Babe Ruth, Willie Mays and Ted Williams. I never knew he was that good.

Tabe · February 16, 2012 9:25AM

<< And we all know what a valuable stat RBI's is... >>

RBI are definitely overrated but they are NOT without value.

Tabe

digicat · February 16, 2012 10:11AM

<< I give Evans a big edge in his consistency and Yaz a big edge in "monster" years with two and a half. Both were stellar defensive players. No edge for either. >>

OPS+ Yaz vs Evans (number of seasons in each range)
190s: 1 / 0
170s: 2 / 0
160s: 0 / 1
150s: 1 / 1
140s: 2 / 2
130s: 2 / 3
120s: 4 / 3
110s: 7 / 5
100s: 2 / 4
090s: 2 / 1

WAR, Yaz vs Evans
8+: 3 / 0
5+: 2 / 3
2+: 13 / 11
0-2: 4 / 6
< 0: 2 / 0

JoeBanzai · February 16, 2012 3:53PM

Thanks digicat, your numbers seem to agree with mine.

Yaz had a couple of monster years with OPS+ of 177 and 193.

Other than that, the numbers are VERY VERY close to being equal, with Yaz having the third highest with a 170 but Dewey comes in with a 162 they tie with 156's and again with 148's, Dewey with a 147, Yaz at140,139,135, Dewey at 136,135 130. The numbers are nearly identical with Yaz having a couple of 112-113 ops+ extra years because of his longer career.

Very very similar players with Yaz having the 2 1/2 huge years.

Lifetime Yaz ops+ 129 Evans 127 pretty close!

Joe

I will still take Mr Evans. There's some extra baggage with Yaz where Carlton Fisk, for one didn't think he was a leader and opposing manager Eddie Stanky was quoted as saying "Yaz may be an all star, but only from the neck down"

digicat · February 17, 2012 4:19AM

<< I will still take Mr Evans. There's some extra baggage with Yaz where Carlton Fisk, for one didn't think he was a leader and opposing manager Eddie Stanky was quoted as saying "Yaz may be an all star, but only from the neck down" >>

I got into baseball in the late 80s and only paid attention to the local teams (A's & Giants), so I only knew of Evans and Yaz because I saw them on baseball cards. My dad was a Red Sox fan growing up in the 40s and 50s, and made a comment once that Yaz was a 'big wimpy cry-baby." I never asked him to explain it, but your comments above seem to go along with what my dad said.

JoeBanzai · February 18, 2012 2:17PM

Well, that was sort of a cheap shot on my part.

In looking over the statistics of many Hall of Famer's I have noticed that a lot of them are inconsistent. Much of the inconsistency is of course due to injury, but some guys, like Yaz, are just all over the place. Others, like Killebrew, are incredibly consistent. I, for one would be frustrated with a star player who wins the Triple Crown and then a few short years later hits 16 Hr's and a BA of .250.

Joe

edmundfitzgerald · February 18, 2012 10:18PM

<< yaz was better , except for the time he slid 2 feet short of second base in 1983 >>

Or the time he fouled out to Craig Nettles.

CEOBIDMC · February 19, 2012 5:13AM

Yaz started his career when pitchers were dominating culminating in the 68' the year of the pitcher. Baseball also expanded by 4 teams in 1969 and added 2 more in 77. So Dewey was playing against better teams? better pitching? Dont think so. Yaz played till he was 43, well past his prime, consider his OPS without his last few seasons.

LodiBrewFan · February 19, 2012 8:53AM

Iread the first five posts and I must say "DWest almost had me at hello". I have a soft spot for Dale Murphy

Bill James on Dewey Evans and the HOF

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