A discussion on the art of patience in searching and buying and the difference a day makes...
Stone193
Posts: 24,438 ✭✭✭✭✭
We all know that sometimes it's probably best to let something go when it's spinning out of control.
Well here's my recent story.
Henry Yee from PSA has some of the best pics for sale in his auction but does have other items for sale. I'm sure his auction attracts some deep pockets also.
I like baseball skill games - but they don't come up in good shape very often from my perspective.
Here's one that Yee had in his auction: Ruth's Base Ball Game - 1930s - as one can see - it's a "play" on the Ruth name - if this had "Babe" on it? Who knows what they would've paid.
I was driven out when it passed the 75 buck range - and then proceeded to go thru the roof!
Well - I was searching games a few weeks later and this one came up:
And instead of over 180 bucks - I picked it up for 46 bucks! Boy was I glad I had patience - it sure seems to pay off - don't ya think?
Here's another interesting game I picked up - Hasbro Baseball Spin-A-Game. 1960s.
Here's an earlier more durable version of a game like this - The Great American Game: 1920s
Thanx for viewing and to those who've encouraged me to bring one of my passions to the board - wish I had card pickups to show but haven't been looking lately. I am still doing a 1963F BB set. And a T3 set - but I usually only pick up maybe a card a year right now.
Well here's my recent story.
Henry Yee from PSA has some of the best pics for sale in his auction but does have other items for sale. I'm sure his auction attracts some deep pockets also.
I like baseball skill games - but they don't come up in good shape very often from my perspective.
Here's one that Yee had in his auction: Ruth's Base Ball Game - 1930s - as one can see - it's a "play" on the Ruth name - if this had "Babe" on it? Who knows what they would've paid.
I was driven out when it passed the 75 buck range - and then proceeded to go thru the roof!
Well - I was searching games a few weeks later and this one came up:
And instead of over 180 bucks - I picked it up for 46 bucks! Boy was I glad I had patience - it sure seems to pay off - don't ya think?
Here's another interesting game I picked up - Hasbro Baseball Spin-A-Game. 1960s.
Here's an earlier more durable version of a game like this - The Great American Game: 1920s
Thanx for viewing and to those who've encouraged me to bring one of my passions to the board - wish I had card pickups to show but haven't been looking lately. I am still doing a 1963F BB set. And a T3 set - but I usually only pick up maybe a card a year right now.
Mike
0
Comments
any new additions to the TMOTTBG collection?
Dodgers collection scans | Brett Butler registry | 1978 Dodgers - straight 9s, homie
Firstly, nice pickups.
Secondly, great topic to discuss. I always find myself walking that thin line deciding between the impulse to purchase something I am interested in versus
purchasing it at a reasonable price. For example, I am working on some older PSA 9-level registry sets, and I always run across Ebay listings for some of the
lower pop cards I need with BIN prices that are super-inflated to market (based on similar sales data that can be found through sources like VCP) or for which
there is no information at all to form any reasonable basis for understanding if the price is fair.
Usually my approach is to avoid situations that involve pure BINs for an item that has not sold recently (if even ever). If the BIN has a best offer option then
I sometimes take a stab at what I feel is what I think is fair (I try to lead with my best offer and not lowball...it avoids wasting a lot of time haggling). On the
other hand, when such an item goes up in an auction format I usually find myself willing to bid and even allowing my emotions to push my bidding a bit stronger
on that last second snipe to get the item.
But ultimately, I think I always keep the relative scarcity of the item in the back of my mind as the "gating factor" on whether to really chase it now or whether to
wait. As long as it seems to come up every year or two I tend not to chase it. If it hasn't been seen for several years then I do.
Not much of a science to it I guess.
Dave
<< <i>Not much of a science to it I guess. >>
I agree David - not much to lean on - scientifically.
Emotions are killer aren't they? I did that with a Denny Mclain board game - I got excited - didn't even realize it was the mail in version - so no cover with graphics and paid over 200 for the game.
There's a brand new version - like mine that I could pick up for a bit less - don't know why I did it? This wasn't ebay and I couldn't set a snipe and walk.
So - let's talk about the Snipe. I like it as the great equalizer against my damn emotions.
If one is willing to set the ceiling and walk - and let the snipe take over? It does take a bit of the emotion out of it - at least for me.
My rationalization? If I overpay by 50 or 100 bucks - I think of all the dinners I've eaten with nothing to show for them!
A big negative is that as a seller it limits potentially higher bids that could come as a result of people getting emotional about something (like in
traditional auctions). If you get a bidding war going on one of your items it would be great if you could let it die out naturally instead of being artificially
stopped at a point in time. There have been a number of times where my snipe lost out (I thought I had put in some outrageous number for something
that I just had to have) to someone else who was even more outrageous, but I probably would have topped the winner who beat me if there was a 15-minute
rule capability
Another thing that can be problematical about the snipe, as a buyer, is that the fixed stop time can be more tricky to deal with when you are on a slow connection
(e.g. sometimes on a smart phone) or when the broadband is acting up. You either have to:
a) Send your snipe earler than you would like to and hope no one tops it (or pushes you unnecessarily higher) during the extra time you left to get around the technical issue
b) "Schedule" your snipe through one of the available engines, which means you lose the real-time ability to increase the snipe bid if it got surpassed between
the time you scheduled it and when it was supposed to go "off"
The other thing that a lot of people seem to dislike about the snipe is that it often gets used by someone who has not bid yet, so as buyers we dont know how many potential
competitors there might be for the item. It's easy to see how many other bidders there are, but its not so easy to see how many watchers there are. There are
some new sites that do provide info on number of watchers, but that is still early days. With that kind of additional info it would definitely change the amount of
many snipe bids IMO.
On the positive side, as a buyer the snipe bid lets you "steal" the lot at the last minute and leaves competition with no way to react in time to beat you. I think most of us have
benefited from that.
I think it would be a neat idea if Ebay offered another auction format where the snipe was not possible. Maybe a 10 or 15 minute rule approach for people who had already bid
in case someone wants to move things still higher. They wouldn't even need to charge extra for it, because any higher bid would push up their final value fee too. Give the seller the option of which auction style to choose. It's not like keeping the auction alive like that is going to have much incremental cost for them once they develop the code to do it, is it?
Anyway, there are some ideas to chew on. Would love to hear others' thoughts on these subjects. Perhaps some higher-ups at ebay might even be lurking and get inspired from a few things discussed here
Dave
Dave
Regarding the snipe, it's great only if you set it to what
you are willing to pay. Some people set it at a higher amount
hoping to get the win that way, trouble happens when two like minded
individuals set to the moon snipes!
Steve
Great game, Mike! Congrats again. You have an outstanding collection.
<< <i>Hi Mike, another great game.
Regarding the snipe, it's great only if you set it to what
you are willing to pay. Some people set it at a higher amount
hoping to get the win that way, trouble happens when two like minded
individuals set to the moon snipes!
Steve >>
Hiya Steve
Can't argue with that.
Like I said - the snipe can keep ya from going all emotional - if when setting it - one is not emotional and says - "this is all I'm gonna pay." Even if the guy beats me by a penny. And I've been there many times.
I guess - for me - I just can't afford to ride on emotion and still pay the electric bill.
It is like an analyst trying to call a super strong stocks top. In many cases once emotions get involved people will pay a lot more for an item then you can imagine in some cases when they don't know when another one is coming or when they perceive it to be more rare then it is.
The other draw back as stated before is the snipe is commonly used and many times two parties throw up a really high snipe and one takes out the other at a record price that is much higher then the other bidders involved. A perfect example is the 1993 Finest where the snipe bids were $4,000 higher then the natural bidders.
I think the concept that Stone raised as a max bid and almost like a limit order in stocks where you are only willing to pay a certain price and if you can't get it there you move on is the most valid argument I have heard yet. The concept of sneaking up on someone and bidding at the end is pointless for hotly contested items because if one other person wants it bad enough they will post their best bid and it will be higher anyway.
The other perfect scenario is when an item has a relatively high opening bid and you don't want to tip off other buyers you are willing to pay that price. Many times it is won at the opening bid and if a bid was placed earlier the buyers would have a better idea of their downside risk and bid slightly higher then the opening bid.
All in all the snipe is over rated and I stand behind my belief that while there are a few instances where it is great, the negatives out weigh the positives in the end and I think if you really want an item post a regular bid.
lol
<< <i>Oh no, not this again.
lol >>
It's a test of your skills in "the art of patience."
Doug
Liquidating my collection for the 3rd and final time. Time for others to enjoy what I have enjoyed over the last several decades. Money could be put to better use.
http://www.unisquare.com/store/brick/
Ralph
<< <i>nice pickups, Mike!
any new additions to the TMOTTBG collection? >>
Hiya Geordie.
Good question - still nothing new as of late - I did find a variation of the same portrait of Henry Fink - which brings it up to 27 variations and missing 2 that the HOF gave me.
This collection will preside at the HOF some day down the road - I'm just wondering if it will be on display? That would be cool.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>Mike, you are on a roll. I'm glad you are back to posting. I for one missed you.
That's very kind of you Mike!
This is a great subject. I have to keep reminding myself to stick to my guns. If I don't win there will be another listed another day.
<< <i>I think the concept that Stone raised as a max bid and almost like a limit order in stocks where you are only willing to pay a certain price and if you can't get it there you move on is the most valid argument I have heard yet. The concept of sneaking up on someone and bidding at the end is pointless for hotly contested items because if one other person wants it bad enough they will post their best bid and it will be higher anyway.
<< <i>
Overall, I'm a huge fan of sniping. I know my max, and I generally stick to it and don't chase. Put it in the snipe application and be done with it--no need to worry about internet connectivity at the auction's conclusion. One can sneak up on an item many times this way. I experience it time and again.
Is it pointless for a hotly contested item? Well, many times there is no way to really know the answer to whether or not an item is "hotly contested" until the final seconds. Sniping allows me to win on my terms at a price that I'm comfortable with. I lose a heckuva lot more than I win with sniping, but I'm generally very pleased with my final price. Many times it's much lower than my snipe. Many times the high bidder probably hasn't upped his bid because he didn't foresee my snipe coming. That means I get it at a lower price (assuming no other snipers come in at the same time I do which is definitely not always the case)
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
I kind of find it ironic that political stuff can't be discussed to the possibility of contention? Heck - just bring up grading, who's in the HOF, and - now - sniping - and we can have a pretty heavy debate!
I do think I remember when snipe services started to get popular - some saw it as immoral?
Like the merit of a PSA 10 - I'm in Switzerland I guess.