Home Precious Metals

About Deflation...

2»

Comments

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,155 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Base your opinion on what you see

    I like basing my opinion on cartoons.

    Made it all the way down without falling. Whew. image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Inflation over the past year (official BLS data):

    Beef and veal +22.5%
    Ground beef +21.0%
    Steaks +14.9%
    Pork +7.4%
    Ham +11.5%
    Whole Chicken +6.1%
    Fresh Fish +3.5%
    Eggs +8.2%
    Cheese +7.8%
    Fresh Vegetables +4.3%
    Lettuce +12.2%
    Tomatoes +9.6%
    Coffee +6.7%
    Butter +19.5%
    Restaurant food +3.1%
    Housing +2.9%
    Hotels +7.6%
    Owners Equivalent Rent +2.6%
    Homeowners Insurance +5.6%
    Electricity +2.5%
    Water & Sewer +5.5%
    Home Repairs +4.4%
    Footwear +2.6%
    Car Insurance +5.0%
    Parking Fees & Tolls +2.3%
    Medicinal Drugs +4.2%
    Prescription Drugs +5.6%
    Hospital Services +4.3%
    Veterinarian Services +3.2%
    Sporting Events +3.6%
    Newspapers & Magazines +4.6%
    College Tuition +3.6%
    Educational Books & Supplies +6.5%
    Grade School & High School Tuition +4.0%
    Childcare & Nursery School +3.0%
    Postage +3.6%
    Cigarettes +2.5%
    Financial Services +5.7%
    Tax Return Prep +9.3% >>



    So this Govt data is true, but all other Govt data is false? >>



    The point the author was making was that the stuff above is a very large % of what he spent in 2014. Sure, there are things on the "official" BLS numbers that went down....probably energy prices, appliances, clothing, computers and TV's. My savings in 2014 on those 5 items was <$800....nearly all of it energy (gas + heating oil). Haven't bought a major appliance in over 10 years. And even averaged out over their typical life of 10-20 years, it isn't a lot of savings. Taxes and govt fees don't show up on the BLS list, and those tend to usually go higher. The "other " govt data is official/true too....but it doesn't come close to off-setting those items that I spend most of our money own. It's great that raw commodity prices have come way down the past 3 years (softs, energy, grains, metals, etc.). Too bad very little of that actually shows up in the final "finished" prices paid by the consumer. Yeah, raw grains are "way" down in price per lb., and what I pay for them at the store has never been higher....lol. image

    Received a new prescription today, the most expensive thing I've ever taken in my life....by a factor of >3X - $9.10 per pill taken daily....$3321 annually. I'm hoping that it doesn't work for me so I can try something else. There are no generic substitutes for it. Funny how that is. image
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,155 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Too bad very little of that actually shows up in the final "finished" prices paid by the consumer. Yeah, raw grains are "way" down in price per lb., and what I pay for them at the store has never been higher....lol.


    Thats a pretty good argument for the stock market to be higher. Lower raw material costs and higher selling prices equals fat margins.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,834 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,834 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Unintended consequences

    Easy Money = Overcapacity = Deflation

    "Cheap money sends a “borrow and spend me” signal to the markets, just as expensive money (i.e., high interest rates and government surpluses) says “save and invest me”. So when money is made artificially cheap by cluelessly expansionist governments, it leads people to overborrow and overbuild.

    The resulting overcapacity leads to price cuts as marginal producers sell for whatever they can get just to keep the lights on. Falling prices for individual products in the aggregate create systemic deflation. In other words, we’re getting exactly what we should have expected from “inflationary” policies — which is deflation."


    Read the link to find out what happens next. image

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,155 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: derryb
    Crude Parallels: A River of Denial

    " As we saw in 2008-09, oil liquidations were entirely appropriate for economic conditions; how can “everyone” deny outright something even slightly similar?"



    Been a year and economy didnt crash. Only thing denied in the authors article was knowledge. The messenger should know better by now.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,834 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: cohodk
    Originally posted by: derryb
    Crude Parallels: A River of Denial

    " As we saw in 2008-09, oil liquidations were entirely appropriate for economic conditions; how can “everyone” deny outright something even slightly similar?"



    Been a year and economy didnt crash. Only thing denied in the authors article was knowledge. The messenger should know better by now.


    Been a year and they're still floating the economy with new money. Money likely to crash first.

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,155 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: derryb
    Originally posted by: cohodk
    Originally posted by: derryb
    Crude Parallels: A River of Denial

    " As we saw in 2008-09, oil liquidations were entirely appropriate for economic conditions; how can “everyone” deny outright something even slightly similar?"



    Been a year and economy didnt crash. Only thing denied in the authors article was knowledge. The messenger should know better by now.


    Been a year and they're still floating the economy with new money. Money likely to crash first.



    Quit blaming poor prognostication on something other than what it is. image

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,834 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The poor prognosticators underestimated the willpower of the money printers.

    Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,155 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: derryb
    The poor prognosticators underestimated the willpower of the money printers.


    Yeah, those darn, evil ........THEM!!!
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • s4nys4ny Posts: 1,569 ✭✭✭
    Just when I was stacking "first class forever" stamps, the USPS is lowering
    postage rates for the first time in 97 years.

  • mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭
    Originally posted by: s4ny
    Just when I was stacking "first class forever" stamps, the USPS is lowering
    postage rates for the first time in 97 years.



    Yeah...I recall someone here at one time saying they could be a good investment statagy.
    May still be someday for someone.....not me.

    Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
  • dpooledpoole Posts: 5,940 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The only good investment strategy is to assume nothing, to discount the prognosticators, and to diversify your boing-yoing off.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,867 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The only good investment strategy is to assume nothing, to discount the prognosticators, to spread your market risk over time, and then to invest your boing-yoing off in PMs.

    FIFY!
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
Sign In or Register to comment.