Investment scorecard for 2011

Justacommeman

Back of the envelope calculations Dec 31, 2011 vs Dec 31, 2010.

All in all most of us could have taken a long nap last New's Years Eve and woke up tonight and nothing much on balance would have changed portfolio wise. This is provided that you had a stock and currency portfolio or a balanced silver/gold port. The S & P benchmark index and US Dollar index basically ended the year flat. If you owned equal amounts of silver and gold you ended up just a tick for the year.

Gold and oil were the shinning stars with the Aussie dollar and Yen the currency stalwarts. Silver, Platinum and Palladium had rough year. Platinum brought up the rear.

DOW +5.5%
S & P flat
Nasdaq -2.0%

Gold +11.0 (eleven years of gains in a row )
Silver -9.0%
Platinum -19.0%
Palladium -17.3%

Oil +8.6%

Currencies vs the dollar

Euro -3.0%
Aussie +4.6%
Yen +5.3%
Canadian -2.0%
Pound -0.4%
Swiss Franc- flat

My single biggest % gain was in 25th Anniversary Silver Eagles Sets and biggest percentage loser was in silver bullion. Go figure

Happy New Year to all. MJ

derryb

I think we all did well with the 25th sets. Of course the first to market got the moon money. Glad you got your piece of the pie.

RedTiger

Let me add:
TLT +29% US Treasury ETF
EEM -20% Emerging markets ETF

Some folks on this forum wonder why I like to hedge, why I don't like to go "all in" as they often like to do. A short answer can be found in the above. More than a few financial pundits, here on this forum, on TV, and across the Internet, thought that shorting U.S. Treasuries was as close to a sure thing as ever occurs. That was last year, and if they did it, they would be down 30% on a straight basis, and more like down 60% if using TBT (double short ETF), and possibly wiped clean to zero or worse if using leveraged futures and/or options. On the equity side, more than a few that were on the bullish side for equities leaned heavily towards emerging markets. After all, fundamentals still looked good, and emerging markets have recently way outperformed U.S., Japan and Euro stock markets (1st world).

/edit to add: I missed out on the 25th anniversary sets. That said, I probably would have signed up to sell to one of the dealers for $80 profit, and that may have been more aggravating than rewarding for $80 worth of profit.

piecesofme

I made 7% in my 401k, less than what I contributed to it. This is the exact reason why I took a loan against my 401k at 3% with the sole intent to use that money to buy & sell precious metals. Something my 401k doesn't even come close to offering.
I did far better than the 3% I am having to pay back the loan with, which I am really just paying myself back. I'm considering doing it again this year with the money that I have contributed into it (the 401k) to increase my buying power even more.
I'm not buying heavily right now because I think the metals are in for some more pain, but I would if offered deals, and cash is still king no matter how badly some of you don't want to admit it. You flash cash in someones face, they reconsider what their asking price pretty quickly.

Justacommeman

RT

I'm guilty of hedging also. Pushing all in doesn't work for me. The irony is that I did play TBT twice this year both as hedges. I unwound those quickly and found a new avenue.

I almost picked TBT in the 2012 forum contest just because it's been beaten to pulp so badly.

MJ

carew4me

<< <i>RT

I'm guilty of hedging also. Pushing all in doesn't work for me. The irony is that I did play TBT twice this year both as hedges. I unwound those quickly and found a new avenue.

I almost picked TBT in the 2012 forum contest just because it's been beaten to pulp so badly.

MJ >>




MJ,
The predictions for TBT appear to be 1 year off.

I think bonds will unwind as the economy grows stronger this year.
love the current entry point , almost the 52 low.

I am going soft on metals this year, wait for the March stock market correction and then long S&P.

My short bond position will be established by the end of this month.

Justacommeman

I've been rather bond heavy and I've used TBT in small amounts to hedge at what I thought would be the right spots. I'm faced with some interesting choices this year.

I've also used TBT for DT's or ST's. I used to profit from this trade in the past. In 2011 it sucked for me.

MJ

streeter

In 2011 I watched several of my competitors bite the dust. Sales are easier now than at any time I can remember in the last 3-4 years.

2012 will be a good year to increase inventory because as soon as this economy picks up steam, if ever, costs are GOING UP. UP. UP. Money is cheap right now. Real estate is cheap right now. Labor is available right now. Only commodities are expensive right now. I do not think any of the previous FOUR factors are going to get cheaper. Maybe commodities might slide in the near term ...but not much.

Fedex, POSTAL rates, UPS have planned increases. Money cannot get much cheaper. Real Estate is basically free right now(owning is cheaper than renting) and labor is almost abundant.

Here's to a good 2012.

Baley

Here are the 2011 results in the Wall Street Journal, great paper IMO





I notice there's a collectibles "classic rarities" index as a major asset class on this table above, wonder what is on the list?

this Link lists it as "Rare coins, top investment grade"

Here are the winning stocks



and the big losers



I had a good but not great year, back of envelope up maybe 11% overall
(I too got stuck in some hedges)

jmski52

My company just implemented a 5% price increase.

Justacommeman

Yes, it was a very good year for bonds even those stinking muni's

MJ

Baley

Here is a 1 year chart of the top performing Nasdaq stock for 2011:

Pharmasset VRUS

Wow.

Great fundamentals, good technicals, and then an aquisition at a high premium.

perfect storm.

Sure looked like a risky and/or boring stock in January 2011

Baley

Business Summary

Pharmasset, Inc., a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, engages in discovering, developing, and commercializing novel drugs to treat viral infections. The company primarily focuses on the development of nucleoside/tide analogs as oral therapeutics for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Nucleoside/tide analogs are a class of compounds, which act as alternative substrates for the viral polymerase, inhibiting viral replication. The company has three clinical stage product candidates, including PSI-7977, an uracil nucleotide analog polymerase inhibitor, which is initiating a Phase III clinical trials; PSI-938, a guanine nucleotide analog polymerase inhibitor that is in Phase IIb clinical trials; and RG7128, a nucleoside analog polymerase inhibitor, which is in three Phase IIb clinical trials. It has a strategic collaboration with F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd and Hoffmann-La Roche Inc. for the development of RG7128, and PSI-6130 and its prodrugs; and a collaboration and licensing agreement with Apath, LLC. Pharmasset, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is based in Princeton, New Jersey.

Wow, what a bunch of technical jargon. Something about viral infections, but difficult to comprehend.

Oh well, Hoffmann-La Roche Inc. and Gilead seem to understand it, I guess that's what matters most to the investors
(who are probably glad the company didn't fire everyone, sell all of it's lab equipment, and buy Silver Bars to sit on, which had just finishing increasing in value 80+% in 2010)