NE Patriots now hold the # 1 spot

pitboss · December 19, 2011 11:17PM

All they need now is to win the final 2 games against the fins and the buffalos

57loaded · December 20, 2011 3:54AM

and the '9ers can clinch #2 in NFC if they win out even if NOLA wins out

jdip9 · December 20, 2011 9:23PM

Sure, the #1 spot is nice, but it doesn't guarantee them of anything. If we've learned anything the past 4-5 years, it's that seeding and home field don't matter, especially in a place like New England, that has the quietest home crowd of any playoff team.

The Pats have gotten spanked the past 2 seasons in a home playoff game, and this defense is worse than in previous years. The AFC is so wide open, so the Pats have just a good a chance of getting to the Super Bowl as anyone, but nobody should be deluded into thinking they are the odds-on favorite.

pitboss · December 20, 2011 11:48PM

The home field advantage matters for any team not just the Patriots.

Every team wants it.

Estil · December 21, 2011 1:16AM

<< Sure, the #1 spot is nice, but it doesn't guarantee them of anything. If we've learned anything the past 4-5 years, it's that seeding and home field don't matter, especially in a place like New England, that has the quietest home crowd of any playoff team. >>

I seriously doubt that. As this link shows,, the top seeds made it to the Super Bowl about half the time, with NFC #1 seeds making it 65% of the time. The two seeds made it to the big dance close to 30% of the time, which only leaves a remaining 20% probability for a 3-6 seed of winning the conference pennant. While it is true that the top seed is no guarantee (just ask the 1996 Broncos who made the most embarrassing #1 seed loss of all time--losing in the conference semis to the Jaguars in only their second year of existence), and that anything can happen in the postseason (especially single elimination format like the NFL or NCAA's) the odds are clearly in your favor if you got the hometown in your corner. Or perhaps just as if not more important, not having the other team's hometown being there against you.

bking · December 21, 2011 1:22AM

<< 

<< Sure, the #1 spot is nice, but it doesn't guarantee them of anything. If we've learned anything the past 4-5 years, it's that seeding and home field don't matter, especially in a place like New England, that has the quietest home crowd of any playoff team. >>

I seriously doubt that. As this link shows,, the top seeds made it to the Super Bowl about half the time, with NFC #1 seeds making it 65% of the time. The two seeds made it to the big dance close to 30% of the time, which only leaves a remaining 20% probability for a 3-6 seed of winning the conference pennant. While it is true that the top seed is no guarantee (just ask the 1996 Broncos who made the most embarrassing #1 seed loss of all time--losing in the conference semis to the Jaguars in only their second year of existence), and that anything can happen in the postseason (especially single elimination format like the NFL or NCAA's) the odds are clearly in your favor if you got the hometown in your corner. Or perhaps just as if not more important, not having the other team's hometown being there against you. >>

Or....... the top seeds made it that much because they were the better teams by a good margin. Aside from weather/dome issues, I think home field matters less in FB than the other big two.

57loaded · December 21, 2011 1:34AM

but.........ask any team what seed they'd like to be in the playoffs

i will give the lack of dominance in the AFC a lot of credence though

jdip9 · December 21, 2011 1:44AM

That article was written in 2008 and covers 40 years of the NFL playoffs...I'm talking recent history, particularly since Bill Polian cried to get the illegal contact rules emphasized after the 2004 season:

2010 NFL: Super Bowl XLV: Green Bay Packers (NFC,10-6, 6th seed) defeated Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC,12-4, 2nd seed), Score: 31-25
2009 NFL Super Bowl XLIV: New Orleans Saints (NFC,13-3, 1st seed) defeated Indianapolis Colts (AFC,14-2, 1st seed), Score: 31-17
2008 NFL Super Bowl XLIII: Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC,12-4, 2nd seed) defeated Arizona Cardinals (NFC,9-7, 4th seed), Score: 27-23
2007 NFL Super Bowl XLII: New York Giants (NFC,10-6, 5th seed) defeated New England Patriots (AFC,16-0, 1st seed), Score: 17-14
2006 NFL Super Bowl XLI: Indianapolis Colts (AFC,12-4, 3rd seed) defeated Chicago Bears (NFC,13-3, 1st seed), Score: 29-17
2005 NFL Super Bowl XL: Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC,11-5, 6th seed) defeated Seattle Seahawks (NFC,13-3, 1st seed), Score: 21-10

So in the last 6 years, 5 of 12 #1 seeds made the Super Bowl. Three of which were transcendent teams that either went undefeated, or lost games only because they sat their starters (except for the NO loss to DAL in 2009). As bking points out, home field had little to do with them getting there, those teams were light-years better than everyone else in the conference (perhaps MIN was close to NO's level in '09). I think clearly the home field advantage helped Chicago and Seattle get there, but that only represents a measly 17% of #1 seeds.

Other than 2009, every year has seen a team in the Super Bowl that had to play Wild Card weekend. If I had to bet on one of the #1 seeds making it to the Super Bowl this year, it certainly wouldn't be the Patriots.

PowderedH2O · December 21, 2011 1:48AM

That data doesn't mean a whole lot. There are certain seasons where there is a clearly dominant team or two. Where there is very little chance that anyone is going to go into their home field and beat them. Or on any field for that matter. For example, when the Saints and Vikings met in the NFC Championship Game a couple years back. They were by far the best two teams in the NFC. But this year isn't like that. The AFC has four teams that are within a game of the top spot. I will discount the Texans a bit because of their injuries. But, would anybody be surprised to see the Steelers win the AFC from the 5 seed? The NFC has three top tier teams. Would it be that big of a shock to see the Saints win a couple games on the road in SF and GB? If they win out, the Saints would be one year removed from Super Bowl Champs and have a 13-3 record. Hardly a weak sister. Also, in some cases, the 5 seed is the second best team in that conference, but they just didn't win the division. So, I throw it all out this year. I'd make the Packers the NFC favorites, but I would not be surprised to see NO or SF win it. In the AFC, it is wide open.

jdip9 · December 21, 2011 1:50AM

<<<but.........ask any team what seed they'd like to be in the playoffs>>>

No doubt home field and a bye are nice to have. But I've been listening to Boston sports radio for 3 days now, and since the Pats now have the inside track to the #1 seed, it's like suddenly, everyone here thinks no team can come into Foxborough and beat them. It's crazy - it's like people here have completely dismissed the beat-downs they've received at the hands of the Ravens and Jets at home the last two years.

jdip9 · December 21, 2011 1:56AM

Well said, H2O....although, I'd argue that NO will have a tough time dealing with Lambeau in January.

PowderedH2O · December 21, 2011 2:00AM

Probably. But, that is also assuming that GB makes it that far. A bad matchup would be the Falcons. They can run and play defense. The Giants could also pose some matchup issues. You never know. Brees played his college ball at Purdue. Colston went to Hofstra, etc... They can handle the weather. Whether they could handle the Packers is the real issue.

jdip9 · December 21, 2011 3:59AM

No doubt. In today's NFL, anything is possible.

I'll buy the Giants if their defensive front line is healthy (big IF right now), but the Falcons seem like a fraud team. Their strength of victory is .365...and they don't rush the passer very well. If they couldn't beat the Pack at home with a 14-0 lead, I don't think they'll go on the road and do it now.

pitboss · December 21, 2011 10:25PM

This has gotten way off topic as none of this has anything to do with the NE Patriots deciding their own destiny with 2 games remaining.

stown · December 21, 2011 11:48PM

<< 

<< Sure, the #1 spot is nice, but it doesn't guarantee them of anything. If we've learned anything the past 4-5 years, it's that seeding and home field don't matter, especially in a place like New England, that has the quietest home crowd of any playoff team. >>

I seriously doubt that. As this link shows,, the top seeds made it to the Super Bowl about half the time, with NFC #1 seeds making it 65% of the time. The two seeds made it to the big dance close to 30% of the time, which only leaves a remaining 20% probability for a 3-6 seed of winning the conference pennant. While it is true that the top seed is no guarantee (just ask the 1996 Broncos who made the most embarrassing #1 seed loss of all time--losing in the conference semis to the Jaguars in only their second year of existence), and that anything can happen in the postseason (especially single elimination format like the NFL or NCAA's) the odds are clearly in your favor if you got the hometown in your corner. Or perhaps just as if not more important, not having the other team's hometown being there against you. >>

That's kinda misleading since it's based from 1990 to 2008. The playoff seeding was changed in 2002, where division winners got home field regardless of record. Just off top of my head: NO lost to SEA last year, PIT was a 5 or 6 seed when they went to the SB, and 07 was really messed up (think 2 road winners).

Edited: DOH! I should have read the replies first.

PowderedH2O · December 22, 2011 2:34AM

This has gotten way off topic as none of this has anything to do with the NE Patriots deciding their own destiny with 2 games remaining.

What the "off-topic" is trying to show is that even if the Pats have home field throughout the playoffs, it doesn't mean a whole lot. It beats playing on the road, and it beats playing a first round game, but this isn't the 2007 Patriots. They are not so far superior to the competition that a home game assures them of a trip to the Super Bowl. I would say that any team (maybe not Denver) that gets into the playoffs could beat the Pats in their stadium. This would include the Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Bengals, Chargers, and even the hated Jets. And it is just as possible that the Pats could destroy any of those teams. The Patriots are the Tiger Woods of football. Still dangerous, but no longer feared.

pitboss · December 23, 2011 2:37AM

The home field advantage can give them the little extra edge that I feel they will need to advance.

What they have done in past years has nothing to do with what they will do this year.

Also what other teams have done in the past has no bearing either.

GO PATS !!!

perkdog · December 23, 2011 8:09AM

<< Sure, the #1 spot is nice, but it doesn't guarantee them of anything. If we've learned anything the past 4-5 years, it's that seeding and home field don't matter, especially in a place like New England, that has the quietest home crowd of any playoff team.

The Pats have gotten spanked the past 2 seasons in a home playoff game, and this defense is worse than in previous years. The AFC is so wide open, so the Pats have just a good a chance of getting to the Super Bowl as anyone, but nobody should be deluded into thinking they are the odds-on favorite. >>

Agree 100%

Bottom Line is Im not getting my hopes up for anything, also none of us Pats fans can realisticly think Super Bowl with our awful Defense in place.

grote15 · December 23, 2011 8:16AM

Pats D is rather weak and they've had a fairly soft schedule. I agree that #1 seed is really rather meaningless, especially in their case, as the deficiencies on defense which still exist today may very well be their undoing again this postseason. That said, the Jets D, which was clearly superior last season has been exposed this season, so I don't see the Jets winning at NE like I saw them doing it last year. NE or Pitt or Bal, though? Any one of those teams could do it.

pitboss · December 23, 2011 9:28PM

I disagree, home field advantage means a lot and hopefully it will rally the good guys in this case.

They need all the help they can get.

pitboss · December 24, 2011 6:16AM

My goodness!!!

BRADY BRADY BRADY

grote15 · December 24, 2011 6:42AM

Brady is great but the Pats secondary continues to get torched..

perkdog · December 24, 2011 10:31AM

Still not excited or planning any Super Bowl party but happy to have a chance

pitboss · January 1, 2012 5:49AM

Allow 21 points in the 1st quarter and come back with 49 unanswered in the next 3 quarters. I hope they don't do that against the better teams

in the playoffs because it will be a rough go of it if they do.

Connecticoin · January 1, 2012 2:55PM

The Patriots have proven they can win close games and come back from large deficits. I don't see any AFC team giving them a game -- the Steelers are crippled and the Raven's offense stinks. So we will have a shootout Super Bowl with the Pats versus NO or GB.

My prediction: Patriots 45, Packers 38

pitboss · January 12, 2012 1:14AM

Are we ready for some home field advantage football?

Patriots 45

Broncos 28

soundgard · January 12, 2012 3:29PM

<< The Patriots have proven they can win close games and come back from large deficits. I don't see any AFC team giving them a game -- the Steelers are crippled and the Raven's offense stinks. So we will have a shootout Super Bowl with the Pats versus NO or GB.

My prediction: Patriots 45, Packers 38 >>

Pittsburgh beat them and i have no reason to believe Baltimore cant do the same.

perkdog · January 13, 2012 7:49AM

<< 

<< The Patriots have proven they can win close games and come back from large deficits. I don't see any AFC team giving them a game -- the Steelers are crippled and the Raven's offense stinks. So we will have a shootout Super Bowl with the Pats versus NO or GB.

My prediction: Patriots 45, Packers 38 >>

Pittsburgh beat them and i have no reason to believe Baltimore cant do the same. >>

I completely agree, in all honesty getting past Denver is their easiest task going forward, Baltimore will be very tough if we play them and the thought of playing Green Bay or NO if we get that far scares Me even more however I thought we had zero chance of losing in 2007 so maybe a lil reverse of my thought process will be a good thing

SanctionII · January 13, 2012 8:05AM

I would like to see Denver win the game tomorrow [duh!!!!!], but I am a realist and do not drink Tebow Koolaid (not yet anyway).

So most likely Denver will lose to the Patriots.

I just hope that the game is competitive and entertaining. One with lots of scoring and big plays by both teams.

The game will probably be one of the highest rated playoff games this weekend [TV viewership] due to the star quality of Brady and the Patriots; and due to the public's fascination with Tim Tebow (people like him or dislike him with no middle ground; and uncertainty over whether he will play lousy or play great).

If Denver does somehow win the game tomorrow, how do you think they would match up with either the Ravens or the Texans for the AFC crown?

PowderedH2O · January 13, 2012 9:12AM

If the Broncos and Texans win, then the AFC Championship would be a marquee matchup of Tim Tebow vs T.J. Yates. If the 49ers win, Alex Smith would be starting in the NFC Championship. Yep, pretty much like I figured at the beginning of the season.

SanctionII · January 13, 2012 10:54AM

Just did some research into the history of games between the Patriots and the Broncos on Wikipedia.

Surprising results.

Denver leads the series with New England 25-17; and Denver has played New England twice in the playoffs, winning both games. The first playoff game was a divisional round game on 1-4-1987 and Denver won 22-17 giving Elway his first playoff win. The second playoff game was a divisonal round game on 1-14-2006 and Denver won 27-13 giving Tom Brady his first playoff loss.

I did not know that Denver has had that much success against New England.

pitboss · January 13, 2012 10:02PM

I believe most of that success came early in the 60's and 70's before they both came into the NFL.

grote15 · January 14, 2012 2:48AM

NE pretty much sucked until the late '90s..

perkdog · January 14, 2012 5:35AM

Well enough of the talking! Lets see if the Pats can shake that playoff monkey off their back!

lawnmowerman · January 14, 2012 5:52AM

<< NE pretty much sucked until the late '90s.. >>

I beg to differ Tim. The early to mid 90's were awesome. I'm sill stuck in that time period because the Cowboys have sucked ever since

The NFL has basically sucked since 1996

grote15 · January 14, 2012 6:07AM

NE pretty much sucked until the late '90s.. >>

I beg to differ Tim. The early to mid 90's were awesome. I'm sill stuck in that time period because the Cowboys have sucked ever since

The NFL has basically sucked since 1996

At least you had the 90s...I was in my mother's belly the last (and only) time the Jets won the Super Bowl, LOL..

pitboss · January 14, 2012 6:29AM

<< NE pretty much sucked until the late '90s.. >>

I beg to differ Tim. The early to mid 90's were awesome. I'm sill stuck in that time period because the Cowboys have sucked ever since

The NFL has basically sucked since 1996

At least you had the 90s...I was in my mother's belly the last (and only) time the Jets won the Super Bowl, LOL.. >>

And hopefully you will be old and gray before they win another one.... GO PATRIOTS.

grote15 · January 14, 2012 9:49AM

< NE pretty much sucked until the late '90s.. >>

I beg to differ Tim. The early to mid 90's were awesome. I'm sill stuck in that time period because the Cowboys have sucked ever since

The NFL has basically sucked since 1996

At least you had the 90s...I was in my mother's belly the last (and only) time the Jets won the Super Bowl, LOL.. >>

And hopefully you will be old and gray before they win another one.... GO PATRIOTS.

Better than being old and gray already, LOL..

pitboss · January 14, 2012 10:54AM

FIVE TOUCHDOWN PASSES FIRST HALF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NFL play off record!

35-7

What can I say!

Brick · January 14, 2012 11:02AM

WOW

SanctionII · January 14, 2012 11:09AM

Absolutely awful. Reminds me of denver's losses to washington and sf in the superbowls by 42-10 and 55-10.

grote15 · January 14, 2012 11:15AM

I don't think even the most avid Denver fan expected the 14-point underdog Broncos to have a chance in this game. Brady has time to eat a sandwich back there in the pocket. Still impressive for a 1-4 team to get as far as they did.

MeteoriteGuy · January 14, 2012 12:17PM

Tebow did bring something new to the game.

The headless chicken play...you run around in a circle inside the pocket until you are tackled.

perkdog · January 14, 2012 1:39PM

Justacommeman · January 14, 2012 1:50PM

Tom Brady is the best NFL QB ever. MJ

grote15 · January 14, 2012 3:45PM

Tom Brady is the best NFL QB ever. MJ

Montana is/was, imo.

Tabe · January 14, 2012 6:19PM

<< Tom Brady is the best NFL QB ever. MJ

Montana is/was, imo. >>

Joe wishes he had the rocket arm that Brady has. Joe was fortunate to have Roger Craig running for him and Jerry Rice & John Taylor catching for him. Brady has had...well...Randy Moss for a year. And Wes Welker.

Joe was great Brady is better in every way.

And I'd argue that Steve Young was better, too.

Tabe

bigreddog · January 14, 2012 8:42PM

Joe "cool" gets my vote. Not even close

jay0791 · January 14, 2012 9:26PM

poor Tebow. he looked like a rat in a maze without an opening.

Brady vs. Joe?

I have always said joe as he was at his very best when it mattered.
however brady is right there also. one bad throw all of yesterday. Like a machine.
Rob G has become an unstoppable force. Nice to be able to find him when the WR's are not open.

perkdog · January 14, 2012 10:53PM

<< Joe "cool" gets my vote. Not even close >>

This type of statement makes me laugh and puke at the same time.

Ok PLEASE tell me how its not even "Close" seriously lets hear it, I want to hear your statements and insight on how Brady is not near Montana.

pitboss · January 14, 2012 11:02PM

Montana was a great quarterback but does not hold a candle to Mr Brady.

Maybe we should be like England and make him Sir Brady!

NE Patriots now hold the # 1 spot

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