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Elliott Wave Principle and AU

57loaded57loaded Posts: 4,967 ✭✭✭
in Precious Metals
i don't subscribe to any forecasts or applications of Wave Theory/Principle to POG, but my understanding is it (AU) is still on the tracks of the wave?

Comments

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gold is still on the uptrend line from October 2008. But should it lose its grip and fall well below, it would probably have to penetrate $1,033 to inflect a mortal wound per
    EW theory. That would be a violation of the rule that wave 4 cannot pull back below the peak of wave 1.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,101 ✭✭✭✭✭
    So it would still be in an uptrend but in the meantime you lost 50%? Ugh. Thats why I dont subscribe to EW theory.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    No, see, you're playing withhouse money because you bought below $1000.

    Even if it falls to $1000, you're still ahead because you bought right and held on image

    Plus, it could "go back up" someday, maybe even soooooon

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's got nothing to do with holding on. That's a personal decision for each individual. Anyone could have bailed out of their gold at the first
    run up near $900-$1,000 as there were 3 fairly tradeable opportunities to do so. Same comment for $1800-$1900 gold. While an EW 4th can
    retrace to almost the top of a wave 1 you don't see it happen very often. It's pretty rare, especially in commodities. And if you went short on that
    50% downtrend, then you did just fine using EW Theory.

    A duplicate 34% correction like 2008 would result in $1265 gold. Considering that the 2008 2nd wave correction was a sharp (C leg ending much deeper than
    the A leg) it's typical that the 4th wave follows a flat shape based on its position in the total wave set (C leg ends about same depth as the A or shorter). While
    it's typical that 2nd waves pull back a long ways, 4th waves more often follow a sideways consolidation pattern. So if this is a major 4th, sideways makes more
    sense. Then again, this may not be a major 4th, but only an intermediate 4th.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    No, see, you're playing withhouse money because you bought below $1000.

    I don't consider it house money. And I don't think this correction is a big deal, consolidation is necessary or else it's just a bubble. This ain't no bubble.




    Yet.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • yellowkidyellowkid Posts: 5,486 ✭


    << <i>No, see, you're playing withhouse money because you bought below $1000.

    I don't consider it house money. And I don't think this correction is a big deal, consolidation is necessary or else it's just a bubble. This ain't no bubble.




    Yet. >>

    image
    At least with the second part of your statement. IMHO "wave theory" is useless.
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