Anatomy of a choke/comeback

halfcentman

Being a former professional poker (fixed limit hold'em) player, I am very interested into examining things and people in various fashions.

Two games that caught my attention were NCAA basketball games. I chose college hoops for a reason, and watching it is easier to look at body language and facial reactions - along with crowd reactions.

1) 1994 UK-LSU (LSU was up 68-37 with around 15 minutes to go in the 2nd half).

2) Miami-UNC in the ACC Quarterfinals (UM was up 53-34 with around 10 minutes to play in the 2nd half).

I would be interested in your thoughts on these, especially if you watched them at the time in their entirety.

Greg

Brick

I don't remember seeing those particular games but I have observed teams with big leads quit playing the other team and start playing the clock. Nearly all the time this allows the other team to make a run. Kind of like how "Prevent defense" prevents the team with the lead to win without great apprehension.

halfcentman

<< <i>I don't remember seeing those particular games but I have observed teams with big leads quit playing the other team and start playing the clock. Nearly all the time this allows the other team to make a run. Kind of like how "Prevent defense" prevents the team with the lead to win without great apprehension. >>



In the LSU game, they were up by 31 points and lost by 4. Once the lead got below 18, you can see them tightening up and the crowd starting to rumble. Yes, Kentucky went on a ridiculous tear, but one 3-point swing (6 points) would have won the game for LSU.

The other game was last year. Miami up by 19 got over-exuberant and started celebrating like it was over. I turned to my daughter and said "I don't think the fat lady has sung quite yet!" Turns out I was right as Harrison Barnes and UNC went on a 27-6 run, which included hitting four, 3-pointers in something like 90 seconds. Zeller put in a putback with one second left, and that was the only lead that UNC had - and the only one they needed.

I think the management of emotion is a tremendous problem in athletics, both professionally and college. You have players going OVERLY giddy for essentially accomplished mediocre tasks at best, instead of maintaining an even keel. Many of these teams who choke tend to me the underdogs. In order to increase their chances of success, they need to have more of a business-like, stealthful attitude. Good teams love overconfidence and prey on it like sharks to chum. This is a major component why underdogs usually don't win.