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Win Probability Added...which hitter helped their team's the most with their bats? Who dominated??
Saberman
Posts: 677
in Sports Talk
Hi everyone,
People always talk of dominance...here is a categorization of dominance in a very accurate measurement.
Baseballreference now has it categorized so it is easy to find. Below is a simplistic test on dominance. What are they dominating? They are dominating the category of bringing their team the best chance at winning ball games.
It is a measurement called Win Probability Added, and it is a dissection of the play by play results of each At Bat, and in the context of the game. For example, a grand slam in the bottom of the ninth, and down by three runs is probably the ultimate positive impact. On the other hand, making an out to end the game with runners on 2nd and 3rd and down by one, is about the opposite side of the spectrum!
In short, it is something we always guessed at...but now it is dissected so closely that guessing isn't really necessary.
I said this was a simple test on dominance, and below are the only players to have led all of MLB MORE THAN ONCE in this very comprehensive measurement of their contributions to winning baseball games with their bats. The number is how many times they led MLB.
Bonds 9
Mantle 6
Morgan 3
Murray 2
McCovey 2
Gwynn 2
Boggs 2
Allen 2
Mays 2
J. Robinson 2
THe play by play data is only available from 1950 and onward...hence some prominent names missing. However, this is a very exclusive club. THis is leading ALL of MLB, not just your league, so it is a very difficult accomplishment. To do it once, you have to be great that year(or lucky), to do it twice...it is worth noting, hence this post
Pujols, Aaron, Schmidt, Brett...all only one time MLB leaders.
People always talk of dominance...here is a categorization of dominance in a very accurate measurement.
Baseballreference now has it categorized so it is easy to find. Below is a simplistic test on dominance. What are they dominating? They are dominating the category of bringing their team the best chance at winning ball games.
It is a measurement called Win Probability Added, and it is a dissection of the play by play results of each At Bat, and in the context of the game. For example, a grand slam in the bottom of the ninth, and down by three runs is probably the ultimate positive impact. On the other hand, making an out to end the game with runners on 2nd and 3rd and down by one, is about the opposite side of the spectrum!
In short, it is something we always guessed at...but now it is dissected so closely that guessing isn't really necessary.
I said this was a simple test on dominance, and below are the only players to have led all of MLB MORE THAN ONCE in this very comprehensive measurement of their contributions to winning baseball games with their bats. The number is how many times they led MLB.
Bonds 9
Mantle 6
Morgan 3
Murray 2
McCovey 2
Gwynn 2
Boggs 2
Allen 2
Mays 2
J. Robinson 2
THe play by play data is only available from 1950 and onward...hence some prominent names missing. However, this is a very exclusive club. THis is leading ALL of MLB, not just your league, so it is a very difficult accomplishment. To do it once, you have to be great that year(or lucky), to do it twice...it is worth noting, hence this post
Pujols, Aaron, Schmidt, Brett...all only one time MLB leaders.
Are you sure about that five minutes!?
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Comments
Fans from that era and before have a difficult time accepting that OB% and SLUG% are such key measurements. We were weened on BA, HR, and RBI. Tough to break long standing habbits...but with enough immersion, one can't help but embrace the more accurate measurements, because that is really what we sought back then too...but it was simply impossible to use any form of objectivity to find it.
The Play by Play stuff is simply a blessing...every at bat and its context are known!
It isn't possible to get fielding measures to be as accurate as the hitting measures.
Fielding measurements are more like football measurements...they have their place, but it is difficult to separate the variables.
The more recent fielding measurements where each play is looked at via videotape...is pretty darn good.
The one thing I want people to take note of on that list is how freakin good Mickey Mantle was in his prime!! For the people who think he is overated, get off that box. He is actually underated.
There is a reason why Mays and Aaron combined to have only 3 times as the MLB leader....his name is Mickey Mantle; the King of Kings!
Mantle has FOUR seasons in the top 21 of all time in that measurement. Bonds has four too(including the first three).
Nobody else has more than one.
The biggest 'sports injury tragedy' isn't Sandy Koufax...it is Mantle.
<< <i>Every time I see a new stat, it seems like it just shows how freaking good Joe Morgan was. Proof positive that batting average will mislead you. Joe's lifetime batting average was a mere .271. But the other numbers that don't always show up on the baseball card are off the chart! This stat just backs that up one more time. Just curious, Saberman, is there anything like this that measures fielding? >>
Morgan had a high (;73-'77) peak in terms of a 2B who could slug, but obviously he had an elite batting eye (career 9.0% K rate compared to a 16.5% walk rate) which trumped up his value and propelled his speed. As for his defensive value, there's nothing conclusive for older players yet, but his Total Zone, and UZR stats show that Morgan had surprisingly awful range. -47.0 UZR and -43 Total Zone. So it would appear as though he's in that Matt Kemp category to where one's natural speed doesn't translate to effective range or jumps.