All Chartists, tell me what you think...

NumbersUsacom

Nearest Monthly Silver

Put up a Monthly ten year or longer
Put on SMA's simple moving averages of 12 months, 24 months and 36 months (1,2 and 3 year)
Put on MACD Ocillator
Put on Williams percent R

Tell us what you think in regards to current status, short term, mid term and long term Silver.

Hope the chart image worked? Tried it twice, can't get it imported. Please pull up your own and tell us what you think.

cohodk

I dont use the Williams indicator nor do I use monthly charts so I will not comment but will display the chart you requested.





For comparison purposes, here is a chart of the Nasdaq from 1990 to 2000 using the same parameters.

Baley

Interesting parallels in the charts! tell us, do, how did that nasdaq one work out for the next ten years?

roadrunner

Biggest differences is that the silver monthly selling volume has been dropping consistently month over month. That Nasdaq chart shows just the opposite as the
lemmings were trying to jump ship. To me one shows a consolidation approaching its end phase (silver) while the other was just beginning to accelerate downwards.
The Nasdaq had just completed an 18 yr bull run. While silver has had a nice 10 yr run, commodity bull markets usually last a few years longer than that...just like
bear stock markets tend to last more than just 11 yrs. Let's give them both another 3 yrs and see what shakes out by the end of the 60/120 yr cycle in fall 2014.

It took 7-8 months or so to bottom the silver market in 2008. That's when W%R hit rock bottom. The current silver correction is already about at the 7 month stage.
But it could take a few more months to bottom out the macd histogram and W%R. Considering the volume spike that took silver down in May, the current Nov volume is
a blip. We'll need to see that selling volume sprout much higher to line up like the Nasdaq in 2000.

roadrunner

MsMorrisine

I don't like MACD because it gives more false positives than other indicators.


I do like Williams %R on a short term basis, but only on a short term basis. It's really good for reversals.


COMPX had a fundamental reason to continue down from there.


What is the fundamental reason for silver to continue down from here?

There could be a change in safe haven demand, maybe?

cohodk

Charts dont care about fundamentals.

Roadrunner, yes, we will have to wait and see if volume comes in. I dont think I have ever seen 2 charts develop exactly the same, but I have seen many in which the end result was exactly the same.

jmski52

Biggest differences is that the silver monthly selling volume has been dropping consistently month over month. That Nasdaq chart shows just the opposite as the lemmings were trying to jump ship.

That was the first thing that caught my attention. One chart (to me, anyhow) shows hesitation in selling; the other shows flight.

cohodk

<< <i>Biggest differences is that the silver monthly selling volume has been dropping consistently month over month. That Nasdaq chart shows just the opposite as the lemmings were trying to jump ship.

That was the first thing that caught my attention. One chart (to me, anyhow) shows hesitation in selling; the other shows flight. >>



You may have a point. However, it is possible that the NAZ chart just progressed a bit faster than silver. If the downside volume does come for silver then the price will be $20 and everyone will say, "but, but, but...last month there was no volume". "This game is rigged." "The banksters stole all my money."

And the classic, "I thought this time was different."

Baley

Maybe not EVERYONE will say that

roadrunner

If the downside volume does come for silver then the price will be $20 and everyone will say, "but, but, but...last month there was no volume".
"This game is rigged." "The banksters stole all my money."

And that would all be true just like it has since around 2004-2006 when they went from net long silver to net short around the same time as the SLV startup in 2006.
Doesn't matter though, silver is still heading to $100+ even if it goes to $20 first.

roadrunner

Baley

silver is still heading to $100+

Clearly! And Gasoline is headed to $15 a gallon, and the DJIA is headed to 30,000, and a postage stamp is headed to $1.00...

*someday*

roadrunner

<< <i>silver is still heading to $100+
Clearly! And Gasoline is headed to $15 a gallon, and the DJIA is headed to 30,000, and a postage stamp is headed to $1.00...
*someday* >>



If you think back to 2004-2006 we were making these same types of "crazy" calls for gold and silver, but not gasoline, milk or Google stock.
In fact one of those early posts was $500 Google or $500 gold, which would be first? That was about the easiest bet anyone could have ever made.
While gasoline will probably be higher 3 yrs from today, it will fall way short of the rise in silver. Silver can indeed go up
3X to 5X from today's levels in the next few years but the changes in DJIA, stamps, and gas will be tepid in comparison. Those aren't even
close money alternatives. We've already seen a double or triple in gas over the past 10 yrs while silver put in an 8X increase. It did a similar pattern
in the 1970's yet gas and other commodities didn't do a 25X increase like gold and silver. If we do somehow get to Dow 30,000 in the next 3-5 yrs
I would expect gold to reach $10,000 or higher with silver hitting $600 or higher. I just don't think that's the way it will pan out as the 60 and 120 yr
ecomomic and business confidence cycles wind down through 2014. 3,000 Dow and $2,500 gold / $135 silver is a far more likely scenario than 30,000 Dow.
Either way, the PM's will outperform.

roadrunner

jmski52

it is possible that the NAZ chart just progressed a bit faster than silver. If the downside volume does come for silver then the price will be $20 and everyone will say, "but, but, but...last month there was no volume". "This game is rigged." "The banksters stole all my money."

Let's dissect that possibility.

Yes, it is possible that the NAZ chart just progressed faster.

But, the question wasn't "If the downside volume does come and the price drops to $20, what will people be saying?" The question was, "Chartists, tell me what you think" (of the two charts).

I only responded to the question that was asked. So if silver goes to $40 next month, you can bet that I'll be saying "see - there was very little downside selling pressure last month"

Besides, everybody knows that this game is rigged and that the bankers are trying very hard to steal all of our money.

Spooly

Low volume can mean a shortage of buyers also.

Yukoncornelius1

<< <i>silver is still heading to $100+

Clearly! And Gasoline is headed to $15 a gallon, and the DJIA is headed to 30,000, and a postage stamp is headed to $1.00...

*someday*

>>



I don't really understand your continues hostility towards silver, perhaps you are just trying to stir the pot???

Your comparison of silver going up to gasoline, postage stamps and the Dow is not in the least bit valid unless you are talking a hyperinflationary event in which case anything with tangible value would rise exponentially in price with food probably leading the way.

Silver has many unique properties which make it irreplaceable in a vast spectrum of applications including electronics, anti-bacterial, water purification, solar energy and as a store of value vs. fiat currency. Silver was used as money for centuries dating back before Christ, are you really going to tell my that someone is going to go to the local grocery store and pay for food with a 5 gallon can of gasoline or a stock certificate???

Lastly there is the problem of future production as the supply of easily gotten silver is exhausted miners will be forced to dig deeper which in turn will drive production costs significantly higher, so the idea of silver selling for $10 an oz. when production costs are $50 an oz is incredibly ignorant to say the least.

I could argue that the stock market run is largely over though I do not know this any more than you know that silver is a horrible investment. One thing you have got to consider is that the baby boomers have pumped billions of dollars into the stock market and now are starting to retire so where do you think they will get the money to live? The answer is quite obvious that stocks will be sold NOT silver so looking at this all logically I would come to the conclusion that stocks are soon to go into an extended down period while silver will continue shining for years to come.

Baley

No hostility towards silver at all. I love the stuff!

But the OP asked what we think about the chart, and what we predict for short, intermediate, and long term silver prices.

I see a deflating bubble (doesn't mean it can't inflate again someday in the future) and predict short term (a year or so) sideways to slightly down from here. Long term, who the heck knows?

as far as comparisons among asset classes which generally move up in value faster than inflation over very long terms, I tend to favor the prospects of ones that have been underperforming historical returns for a decade, over ones which have had large, nearly unprecedented upward moves every year for the same time period.

Regression toward the mean, it's sometimes called.

Kd5ddo

<< <i>Regression toward the mean >>



This has been seen over and over again... Over time, all things revert to the mean.