State of the Canadian Coin market.

TwoKopeiki

Last weekend I've visited a small B&M store in Toronto, the one I visit once every few months to see if any new stock came in. While looking through his crowns, some are still there from when I started collecting 6+ years ago, we started chatting about the state of collecting in Toronto and Canada in general. From his point of view, coin collecting in Canada has been declining in the last few years, with barely any new blood flowing in. We talked about the ANA in the States and all the TPG's and how the first one was actively working on promoting the hobby, while the second created a niche market by opening up coins to investors and reducing the risk margin for inexperienced collectors, whereas Canada lacks that culture. He made the same comment I thought to myself after visiting TOREX or Niagara major coin shows - it's the same 40 dealers, most in their 50's, with customers that are maybe at most 10 years younger. When I visit TOREX I feel young being 31. It's not felt as drastically when visiting FUN or CICF in the States.

This particular B&M store is located north of downtown and for the last few months his primary traffic consisted of people buying / selling bullion due to recent prices, and nickle and dime customers that try to get a discount on stuff in his 3/$1 box. He hasn't bought anything that he'd be able to put in an album in months. And that's with having pretty good coverage in terms of the next coin dealer being about a 45 mins - hour away. There are 3 B&M dealers in Toronto, the financial center of Canada with 2.48 million people living in the city (5.5 million in the Greater Toronto Area), and some dealers are looking at an exit strategy.

At the same time we have world-class dealers like Randy Weir who are considering moving their business to the States, because it's becoming harder and harder to do business across the border and move inventory without being constantly hassled by border security.

At the end of this wall of text what really worries and surprises me is the lack of the collecting culture in Canada. Kids are not sitting down with their parents and putting quarters into whitman albums, boyscouts are not visiting coin shows to earn their collecting badges, new entrepreneurs are not looking at Canadian coins as a potential business...

So, why do you think this is happening (or do you think it is) and can it be changed?

Thoughts?

OchoReales

Hi Roman,

At 49 years of age (50, in April), I can clearly see that computers, video games and the general fast pace at which kids are growing up (over the past 20 or so years) has dealt a blow to all types of traditional collecting. Most kids don't have to and do not read books or have an interest in newspapers anymore because information is bombarded at them at lightening speed over TV and the WWW. Information comes so quick, each news bite seems to shadow the former. TV is available 24 hours a day. I remember as a kid, listening to the US National Anthem with the Stars and Stripes flying, (on my B&W 17 inch Zenith ((with no remote control back then either)) ) and then precisely at 12 midnight, a screen of snow appeared. I think that today's fast pace creates a NOW frame of mind. Coin collecting is reserved for those with patience, something that is unfortunately not extolled in today's culture. There are simply too many distractions and diversions in society. It is up to us to get involved with youngsters in schools and such and to teach them the value of collecting. As Dave Bowers so aptly wrote to a 15 year old me, collect coins for their beauty, history and lore. We are the KEY to the survival of coin collecting!

DoubleEagle59

The Canadian coin market was flying at full speed through the 1990's all the way to 2008.

After the Financial crisis in the fall of '08, the Canadian market suffered a near fatal blow that to this day is just slowly recovering.

There are very few young collectors.

I'm 52 and find myself right in the middle of the pack, possibly a bit weighted on the younger side.

Personally, I feel the Canadian coin market has only ONE more good boom cycle left, starting anytime now till possibly 15 years out.

Then sadly, I feel it will be similar to the stamp market, with most, if not all collectors passing the time in the old folks homes, sipping on cold soup and dreaming of their 'glory' days.

Gloomy outlook?...Possibly, but that's the way I see it.

TwoKopeiki

Gary, DoubleEagle59, you guys bring up a lot of valid points. One of the biggest opportunities I see is for an organization to come-up with a strategy and commit to executing it for the next X number of years. We have the Royal Canadian Numismatic Association, why aren't they actively going after certain segments of population? What's their plan? If it's not kids, since they have lots of distrations, why not go after young adults? Investors? Why not affiliate with a major TPG and create a price guide that actually reflects current market prices. Have some presence in US to attract that segment of collectors. Showcase top-notch collections at the ANA events, if Canadian conventions are in decline.

The outlook might be grim, but I think there's an opportunity to turn it around.

DoubleEagle59

I sometimes think it'll take a major celebrity like Wayne Gretzky to say "I collect coins for fun" to kickstart a new generation of collecting, but I'm not counting on it.

1960NYGiants

I agree that the Canadian market is very slow right now. I do not believe that it is dying. The 2008 financial crash / crush has hurt many blue collar collectors. Right now they cannot afford to purchase the key dates or the upgrades for their sets. Because most dealers are "locked up" with their inventory they will not discount and as long as they hold their prices the price guides will remain high. Add to it, the problem with an erratic bullion market. Cash flow is what dealers need. Current conditions are not cash flow friendly.

That said, I believe this is a buyers market if one can afford to sit on inventory. There are some decent collector coins coming to market. As one generation passes on the next steps up. We all have our blinders on. I remember when I started. I was gung ho. Lost the fever during my 20s + 30s as the career was built. Then as I settled coins came back into focus. Every generation goes thru this process.

There are plenty of young collectors out there. The RCNA sponsors a YN treasure hunt and auction at its conventions - the YN auction in Ottawa 2 years ago was strongly attended and very lively. I've read that the RCNA Executives are working with the ANA to learn how the US market works / trains / promotes (whatever the term) to strengthen its collector base. Every RCNA meeting I've attended has this subject matter addressed.

I set up at the local Hartford show yesterday. Only half of the regular dealers were there. Why? Because there were 2 other local shows (w/in a 100 mile radius) competing with each other. Along with Baltimore. Too many shows in one geographical area, IMHO. The commercial shows, monthly or bi-monthly around here, have pushed the annual or semi-annual coin club shows out. The folks running these shows need to collectively get their heads together and create a schedule that maximizes both dealer and collector attendance.

Anyway, there were a bunch of YNs that came thru. Granted some were tag alongs but some were actively working on their sets. The most popular dealer feature was the bargain bins. The kids love 'em!

So, it's part of the cycle. Eventually it will rise again. As said previously, we silver haired ole timers need to be patient. The yougin's are comin', eventually . . .

DoubleEagle59

Gene, for the good of the hobby, I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

coinkat

There realy needs to be a different and bold move to spark an interest in coins- I previosuly suggested that a series documentary by someone like Ken Burns and having it air on PBS would be a great start- Coins and the history behind them are ready for prime time and it could easily be done through the cooperation

Jinx86

Over the weekend here in Fargo there were several buyers from Canada that I knew of. Most bought a wide variety of items, not a whole lot of selling.

bidask

sell me some gems that are discounted now.....

DoubleEagle59

<< <i>sell me some gems that are discounted now..... >>



What are you looking for in ICCS ms65's?

rec78

I think that too many issues have turned a lot of collectors off. To have a complete set of anything you now need a lot of coins. Minting a commemerative coin once in while is one thing, minting the amount of different coins that Canada issues for collectors is another. Way too many. And now painted coins? Come on. I know more than one collector that just gave up because they could not keep up collecting all the coins that the Canadian mint issues. I have cut back myself. Bob

KUCH

I do enjoy our Northern Border coins!

I've got a 1965 Proof Set in the original envelope.

bidask

<< <i>

<< <i>sell me some gems that are discounted now..... >>



What are you looking for in ICCS ms65's? >>

not a iccs fan....I tried crossing a few to pcgs unsuccessfully....

YQQ

Hello,
whatever the RCM turns outthese days is outright garbage, specifically designed for the Asian and European markets. I know one dealer in Europe he lives well of the automatic subscriptions for the Canadian issues: he sells thousands of these overpriced items with a healthy profit. to the best of my knowledge, the importer pays less than face value. again is this legal?
The legal tender issues are wide open here also. is this stuff legal tender? what do you think would happen if you walk into a Timmies and pay for your coffee and donought with a 8 dollar coin? Handcuffs are lurking...
there is everything from triangular 3 dollar coins to snakes with swarovsky eyes, even real diamonds. We all get the drift.
THEn, every once in a while they use the old trick:
they "purposely" make an error! They then make sure that a known collector discovers this error and writes about it in Canadian Coin news or a similar publicatrion.
result: everyone asks for and searches for "the error coin" and hence creates interest!

REAL collectors stick with Canadian coins from 1967 and back to 1858. that is where the real treasures are. Many of them are sleepers to be woken up.
a very good example are the very scarce Newfoundland coins. Just check out the mintages of the $ 2 gold coins. If these were US coins, the value would easy be 10-foldand more for some!
The real problem is being able to get Canadfian coins in top grades for reasonable money.
Graded or not. Personally my choice is NOT graded. Who want to pay for an opinion? Grading will only help if you wish to sell the coin.
When the day comes that an established and accepted norm exists, anchored by law, then TPGS will have a much better place.
then they will have to demonstrate professional responsibility, which does carry a guarantee.
right now, NO such a thing exists. they all say : in our opinion. and we pay for it...
they do not say : "in our professional opinion"

enough rambling for the day...

mrpotatoheadd

<< <i>I know more than one collector that just gave up because they could not keep up collecting all the coins that the Canadian mint issues. >>

I quit collecting modern Canadian coins years ago for exactly this reason. I tried to keep up with just the dollars for a while, but the last straw was when the mint started issuing different dollars in different sets, so you had to buy coins you didn't want to get all the dollars for that year. No more.

7Jaguars

Yes they have quite the Pandora's Box now open. I can only imagine that their total sales will begin to decline. Shame that.

DoubleEagle59

YQQ, I'm with you.

I don't and will never collect clad coinage (modern).

Pre 1968 for me.

I don't even check my change for the odd modern variety/error. I wouldn't even know what to look for!

coinkat

There are treasures for Canadian coins to be had a cheap prices- I still suspect that Canadian silver coinage has for has been dramatically impacted by melting- I will go on record as saying Victorian and Edward VII coinage in high end circ is much tougher than most think- and I will even add certain George V issues

YQQ

coinkat, YOU are dead on the money..
just try to get an 1890 50 cent piece above VF30.. need to get a loan to buy it..

coinkat

And that is just one example- there are several others that are just not appreciated for their true rarity

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS

Modern Crap ....that is what young people collect everywhere...in Canada,the United States and even China. Why do you think PCGS and NGC have opened up foreign offices ?

Another factor to consider is how loose,all over the place, is how Brians grading has become. He has in the past few years graded copper
In grades unheard of five years ago. Don't forget ICCS has no monetary guarantee where PCGS does guarantee their grades with market value.

Perhaps if more Canadians get hooked on the Set Registry and participate actively the Canadian market will BOOM AGAIN.

Stewart Blay

7Jaguars

IMO -I don't see how 30-40 more collectors at most will move the market all that much, and that's an optimistic number....
Good advert for our hosts though.

7Jaguars

PS - contrived varietals from Canada aren't new - how about issues such as the 1939 "matte" dollars that are not even matte?

DoubleEagle59

<< <i>Modern Crap ....that is what young people collect everywhere...in Canada,the United States and even China. Why do you think PCGS and NGC have opened up foreign offices ?

Another factor to consider is how loose,all over the place, is how Brians grading has become. He has in the past few years graded copper
In grades unheard of five years ago. Don't forget ICCS has no monetary guarantee where PCGS does guarantee their grades with market value.

Perhaps if more Canadians get hooked on the Set Registry and participate actively the Canadian market will BOOM AGAIN.

Stewart Blay >>



With all due respects, Brian at ICCS, over the years, is so much more consistent in grading than any other TPG.

Why? Because the main reason is it's only a two man team grading ICCS coins (and the two never change).

Whereas PCGS, NGC and others, I'm sure go through a turn over of graders over the years, hence more inconsistent grading.

Also and more to the point, I will admit ICCS has become a little more 'loose' in its grading, however this does not compare in any meaure to
the bouncing back and forth from strict, to easy, back to strict again, that one famous US TPG has done through its history.

One thing about ICCS that PCGS is so much better at doing, is grading 'Red' and 'Red-Brown' copper coins. ICCS is very bad at this.

YQQ

all fine what u guys bring up her.
BUT,
consider the cost.
it costs me $ 7 to have Brian or Louis grade a canadian Coin...($ 12 or so in a hard slab with CCCS)
the cost to have a Canadian coin graded at PCGS is apparently prohibitiv compared to ICCS or CCCS.
And it seems to be impossible to submit directly and without going through another dealer who is an agent.
then there is customs....
all adds up to a lot of $$$$$$$$$
does that make sense?
raises the question WHY????????????????????
and, it is commonly known that PCGS is downgraded in canada by at least 1 grade. Others even more.
Maybe PCGS should open in canada.. easy to do..
as a side note i know of at least one case where 5 high end coins were taken physically to a PCGS "depot dealer" here in Canada.
what happened? the dealer wanted to buy , in a sneaky way, 3 of the 5 coins before submitting................
does anyone know the pricing structure that PCGS is using for canadian coins?
H

TwoKopeiki

<< <i>...
Then there is customs....
>>



I am yet to be asked to pay to receive my coins back from PCGS or NGC. I believe since their services are considered professional evaluation and the coins are yours to begin with, import tax does not apply.

TwoKopeiki

Also, no offense to ICCS, but having been to their office in Toronto to do an in-person evaluation, I did not get a lot of confidence in the process. The place was very cluttered with evaluations done under a single, rather dim table lamp. Plus their heat-sealed soft plastic flips are not exactly employing the latest tamper-proof technologies. I guess it's ok for them, since they don't have a buy-back or grade guarantee, but that's one of the reasons why investors would shy away from their product.

coinkat

I sort of see the Canadian Market as a Tale of Two Cities- it was the best of times- it was the worst of times

Few can afford pre 1910 MS examples and the surviving population is low. Then there are those that look to be G6 on a good day with slim pickins in between and there lies the problem- there seems to be no middle ground- its like listening to the US Collectors that look for Barber coinage in 35 to 58, except the Victorian and Edwardian collectors- especially for quarters and halfs don't seem to share their frustration in the lack of available original coins

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS

AREN't there many new Canadian collectors assembling sets of PL's and MS coins that are post 1950 ?

I also miss Michael Walsh AKA The Canadian Coinoisseur. He had so many fresh collections.

There is also a deep Black Hole in Canada known as the George Cook collection

Indeed Canadian Coins are rare!

Stewart Blay

amwldcoin

My experience with the Canadian market.

During the boom from around 06-08 I sold more coins to Canadian dealers than here. Before and after I have always had a reasonable base of collectors in the Southeast. IMO there is and always will be a strong collector base for Canadian coins in the US.

I hope you Canadian Dealers don't take this the wrong way. Most of the Canadian dealers I have met want to make a whole lot more on a transaction than most US dealers. I owned the Norweb 90-H 1/2 for awhile that was in a PCGS-45 holder. I was appalled at how little I was offered and the tactics a few dealers used trying to pry the coin from my possesion! Of course since it was PCGS it just barely made a VF! The funny part was I was willing to trade down the coin as it was more grade than I was really after. Funny how their scrubbed up VG's where solid Fines but my lusterous,original rainbow toned PCGS graded coin was only worth $500 more than their lock Fines! That coin now resides in an investor's safe Deposit Box here in the states.

On a positive note I purchased and placed a great coin with a customer last month. In the process shocked a little old lady with her small handful of coins in a sock. In that sock was the only Canadian 1/2 I didn't have in my collection before I sold it! It was a wonderful original 1870 No LCW which on the low side would be an ICCS 30 and had a good shot at 40 with PCGS!

The Canadian market is alive in the states.