2011 Red Sox...Where will they play in 2012?

Barndog · October 13, 2011 11:28PM

How about some predictions on these people? Do you think they will still be on the Red Sox in 2012, retired, or on another team (name the team if you have a crystal ball!)?

Lackey
Beckett
Papelbon
Bard
Ortiz
Youkilis
Saltalamacchia
Wakefield
Varitek
Drew
Crawford

PowderedH2O · October 14, 2011 12:01AM

I'll take a shot...
Lackey - released or traded. Probably will sign on with someone that has a genius pitching coach that thinks it can fix him
Beckett - stays
Papelbon - stays
Bard - stays
Ortiz - stays
Youlilis - traded away - Detroit? They could use him at third.
Salty - stays
Wakefield - retires
Varitek - stays
Drew - released
Crawford - stays (who do you trade him to with that contract?)

Just my guesses. I know nothing.

Sam

jdip9 · October 14, 2011 12:10AM

Are you making the assumption that Ellsbury is going to be with the Sox in 2012? I'm not sure that is going to be the case. He is leaving in 2 years when free agency arrives, and his value will never be higher than it is right now.....I think in order to get rid of either Beckett or Lackey, they will have to package Ellsbury up with one of them. What they get in return....I have no idea.

One scenario I would be OK with - Ellsbury and Beckett to the Mets for David Wright + prospect(s). Mets have team option for $16M for Wright in 2013, after which he would be a free agent, just like Ellsbury. Then you could trade Youk for a CF. There are some servicable starters that will be free agents that you could sign with the $17 million freed up from Beckett's contract.

From your list, I think Papelbon, Bard, Ortiz, Salty and Crawford are back.

Lackey, Beckett, Youkilis are playing for somebody else.

Wakefield, Varitek, Drew are retired.

digicat · October 14, 2011 12:30AM

SF Giants will sign J.D. Drew to a 5 year, $75m contract.

Barndog · October 14, 2011 12:31AM

I did make the assumption that Ellsbury stays. I figured that the owners really screwed the pooch on their handling of the team and PR over the last month and there is no way that they are going to take away the fan favorite (die hards and pink hats). If anything, I think Cherington (assuming he's the new guy) will try to sign him to a long term deal...yes, even though he is a Boras client.

Here's my take:

Lackey: Gone. Jed Hoyer steps in and helps out the Sox. PETCO helps to drop Lackey's ERA by at least 1.50 runs
Beckett: Stays
Papelbon: Gone. He will want three or four years and I think they won't pay him for that. Toronto Blue Jays need him.
Bard: Stays (still a set up guy)
Ortiz: Stays (two year deal)
Youkilis: Gone. No idea where, but I trust he will be shopped heavily.
Saltalamacchia: Stays
Wakefield: Retired
Varitek: Free agent, will sign with another team for one year and "mentor" young catcher and pitchers...at least that's the signing team's intent.
Drew: Retired
Crawford: Stays, has a better year, hits second in the order most of the year

Barndog · October 14, 2011 12:31AM

<< <i>SF Giants will sign J.D. Drew to a 5 year, $75m contract.

>>

jdip9 · October 14, 2011 1:54AM

Boras usually likes his guys to get to free agency...the ONLY way Ellsbury signs a long term deal before then is if he's offered Carl Crawford money....which would be ANOTHER mistake by the Sox. I hope I'm wrong, but I find it very hard to believe that Ellsbury can duplicate what he did this season.

Barndog · October 14, 2011 2:06AM

I think what will be in the Sox favor with Ellsbury is his injury year in 2010. More than most young players, Ellsbury realizes one play can end a career. So he can sign guaranteed now for more money than he will ever need in ten lifetimes or he can chance it that he won't suffer a career-ending or contract-killing injury in 2012 or 2013.

MCMLVTopps · October 14, 2011 10:28AM

my 2 cents...

Lackey - stuck with him
Beckett - stays but needs to improve
Papelbon - gone, he has stated before he'd like to play for you know who.
Bard - stays
Ortiz - gone, especially after the recent ESPN interview. He's tired of all the "drama".
Youkilis - I'm on the cusp here, but I'm leaning gone.
Saltalamacchia - stays
Wakefield - retires. Only wants to stay for selfish reasons, to set a record.
Varitek - gone
Drew - DEFINITELY GONE
Crawford - stuck with him too

Like Sam above, just my guesses, I have no real reasons. I'm still in mourning over the September disaster.

Ellsbury - stays
Aceves - stays
Lowrie - stays
Jenks - drives the bus Drew leaves on

Treetop · October 14, 2011 1:17PM

Lackey - traded to Angels for Vernon Wells
Drew - Released to make room for Wells
Beckett - He'll be back
Papelbon - Signs 3 year 28.5 million contract with Angels
Bard - Stays
Ortiz - Tampa Bay - 1 year 8.5 million team option 2nd year @ 8.0 mill
Youkilis - Traded to White Sox with 2 minor league players and cash for Danks if Danks contact is for two years or less (not sure on contract length)
Saltalamacchia - Stays
Wakefield - retires but comes out of retirement June 2012
Varitek - Signs minor league deal, doesn't make it back to the big club retires end of spring trading
Crawford - back next year, and the real "stuck with him" won't begin until the 4th year of his contract

PowderedH2O · October 14, 2011 1:47PM

I hear that the Cubs are working on 'compensation' for signing Epstein. How about the Cubs taking Lackey as compensation?

pitboss · October 14, 2011 7:40PM

You must think they are stupid.

Garabaldi · October 14, 2011 11:32PM

Lackey..........Gone traded or released
Beckett........stays
Papelbon....resigned
Bard...in the rotation
Ortiz....gone
Youkilis....stays
Saltalamacchia....stays
Wakefield....gone retires
Varitek....gone
Drew...gone
Crawford....where is he going

TheVon · October 17, 2011 6:54AM

Lackey - some National League team will take him if the Sox pay 75% or more of his salary.
Beckett - stays but might be moved by the end of July
Papelbon - Mets
Bard - stays
Ortiz - stays for two more years.
Youkilis - traded to the Reds - his hometown.
Saltalamacchia - stays
Wakefield - retires
Varitek - one more year as a backup/mentor
Drew - retires
Crawford - stays
Ellsbury - stays until he's a free agent in a couple years

jdip9 · October 18, 2011 9:12AM

and the hits just keep on coming.....now it's rumored the beer drinking occurred in the DUGOUT!

this is getting uglier by the day....

Garabaldi · October 18, 2011 10:25AM

Don't believe all the stories

Dboneesq · October 18, 2011 12:58PM

<< <i>and the hits just keep on coming.....now it's rumored the beer drinking occurred in the DUGOUT!
this is getting uglier by the day.... >>

TheVon · October 19, 2011 2:16PM

Sounds like some of us may have predicted correctly that Lackey will end up in the NL as the Padres have stated they are interested in him. I think it's a good move for both teams if it happens. His ERA should drop a full 2.00 playing half his games in Petco and facing lesser hitters more often.

jdip9 · October 19, 2011 10:26PM

This is interesting, because there are reports that Epstein wants to bring Jed Hoyer aboard. Probably the reason why the "compensation" part of the Epstein deal is taking so long. My prediction of how this shakes out:

Sox trade Lackey for Zambrano, and agree to eat $15m of the Lackey contract (much less than the $30m that they would probably have to eat otherwise)
Cubs send Lackey to the Padres as compensation for Hoyer, and agree to eat $15m of the contract, leaving SD on the hook for 3 years/$16m.

MCMLVTopps · October 19, 2011 10:32PM

Zambrano? You gotta be kidding, that guy is a nut case.

jdip9 · October 19, 2011 10:42PM

Topps, I know that, but here's the thing - Zambrano will be a free agent after next year - so you hope to catch lighting in a bottle. I think he'll be motivated to keep his head screwed on straight.

PLUS, to get rid of Lackey, you'll need to eat minimally $30m anyway, so why not spend $33m, and bring in a #4 or #5 starter - at least you are getting something for your money.

It's not as if the Sox have major-league ready arms in the minors, or else I think we would have seen one of them in September.

pitboss · October 19, 2011 11:15PM

<< <i>Zambrano? You gotta be kidding, that guy is a nut case. >>

So is Lackey, at least Zambrano can pitch if he wants to and a change of venue cant hurt any worse than having Lackey for 3 more years.

TheVon · October 20, 2011 12:18AM

Honestly, I'd rather keep Lackey than have Zambrano come aboard. Zambrano was supposedly focused last year too and look what happened. He is a bigger clubhouse cancer than Manny Ramirez ever was. Even as bad as the Cubs were they thought they were better off disqualifying Zambrano and suspending his pay. The Red Sox would be stupid to invite that kind of a personality into a clubhouse that desperately needs a character makeover.

Connecticoin · October 20, 2011 12:59AM

OK, my guesses:

Lackey - traded to NL team, eat $10mm per year of salary
Beckett - stays, stops eating fried chicken and listens to trainer
Papelbon - stays - 3 years, $12 million per year
Bard - stays
Ortiz - 2 years, $20mm, bats .252 in 2012 and .209 in 2013
Youkilis - traded
Saltalamacchia - stays
Wakefield - retires
Varitek - stays, may retire mid-year to make room for Lavarnway
Drew - retires
Crawford - stays

pitboss · October 20, 2011 1:03AM

That guess is as good as I could come up with.

jdip9 · October 20, 2011 3:56AM

Most of Zambrano's blowups are due to COMPETITIVENESS....something that seems to be lacking (no pun intended) with this current group of chicken and beer pitchers. I'll take that kind of fire any day.

But, I'll play along with your way of thinking for a minute...say they bring on Zambrano and he melts down again - they simply release him and move on!! In the trade I proposed, they've wasted $33m ($15m eaten for Lackey and $18m for Z).

Since the Sox have ZERO leverage trying to trade Lackey because everyone knows how desperate they are to get rid of him....the alternative is to trade Lackey for a Single A prospect and eat $30M (or more).

Why wouldn't you roll the dice with Big Z???

Moot point anyway, since rumors are the compensation will be minor league players.

TheVon · October 20, 2011 5:28AM

Sorry, I think I misunderstood you originally. I thought you were proposing that the Red Sox pay $15 million for Lackey each year, not just a one-time hit. That makes more sense to me. Still though . . . I'm not a fan of Zambrano and while I agree that he's got some competitive fire, I don't think he's got his head screwed on straight and I think he'd have a really hard time playing in Boston. Besides his mental problems, he hasn't been able to pitch 200+ innings since 2006 and his ERA/WHIP aren't exactly impressive either.

jdip9 · October 20, 2011 5:46AM

No doubt Z has definitely fallen off since his hey day, which frankly, wasn't even all that great back then (sort of like Lackey - both got obnoxious contracts for the less than elite stats they put up).

I just think he's got more in the tank than Lackey does right now, and I would do anything to see Lackey not pitch for the Sox next year - even if it means bringing on a headcase.

fiveniner · October 20, 2011 5:48AM

Lackey, Released,Boston will pay someone portion of contact.
Beckett,Stays
Papelbon,Stays
Bard,Stays
Ortiz,Stays
Youkilis,Detroit
Saltalamacchia,Stays
Wakefield,Kansas City
Varitek,Retire
Drew,Released
Crawford ,Stays

MCMLVTopps · October 20, 2011 11:14AM

Zambrano is unstable, we don't need another whack job like a former Red Sox player who wore # 24 running around and pulling a nutty when things don't go his way.

Say what you will, I think we're stuck with Uber Toad. I doubt his 2011 record and his insane contract make him a viable trade candidate.

I think the Red Sox are facing a serious dry spell and major changes are in the wind above and beyond the current events of Theo and Tito.

2011 Red Sox...Where will they play in 2012?

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