Recent Coin Market Performance
LVGT
Posts: 503 ✭
I would be interested in hearing board members thoughts on the recent relative strength of the coin market (excluding generic morgans and gold) in the last month or so. Obviously the financial markets are a mess right now. Does everyone see prices holding up or is the coin market on the brink of a pullback as well.
The recent auction prices I have seen for CBH's have been fairly strong. Is dealer inventory moving close to ask prices? Have many buyers gone inactive? Just curious to hear some opinions.
Thanks.
The recent auction prices I have seen for CBH's have been fairly strong. Is dealer inventory moving close to ask prices? Have many buyers gone inactive? Just curious to hear some opinions.
Thanks.
0
Comments
The past year or so, collector coins have been dead. Most of the collectors that were working on mercury dimes, indian heads, lincolns, washington quarters, wLH etc have had to liquidate over the past 12-18 months for various reasons. I might have a couple folks who pick up something on occasion but these are retired colonels, retired proffesionals who have solid funds. Now in this area, it has never been strong for coins priced over 500 bucks, but there were various active collectors for the above.
By this time the bullion train was already on a tear!
During the big run-up in silver and gold prices, many people were jumping on the band wagon to get a taste of the action. I had a few strong customers who started buying in large quantities at around 900 gold/ 25 silver. They slowed up and almost went dormant at 1600gold/35 silver , then came the late to the table buyers, to get it on the action chasing silver all the way to 49.00, by then gold was outpriced for several, so they chased silver even more. Then the big drop from 49, which effected silver more so than gold. Scared away quite a few permanetly.
Once it leveled out , several people converted over to gold, even if it was smaller denominations. Still active buyers on silver up till it crossed back at 40. then the buyers virtually stopped. By this time, most of the gold buyers were getting cautious as well.
With all the news of record highs in gold /silver we were buying silver /gold coins, scrap at 15-20 k per day with little to no actual buyers over the counter, everthing had to be shiped. That is a very strong number for a small shop like mine in a smaller sized town.
Then the recent drop, scared the heck out of several, a few were even in panic. However, with the price lower, several of my earlier buyers started coming back around the past two weeks to pick up some more silver at 30, problem is now we are not buying no where near as much and hardly any is coming in the door becuase the price is too low currently for several to sell, and most of the other folks had already sold out. People are still very cautious after two significnat drops, I am curious how this is going to affect folks buying when it starts to rise again!!!!
Back to collectors, they still are not around, we have very limited inventory of collector coins in the store now, and nobody cares, There are days in which I dont even put out the trays of coins, and no one even asks where they are. I used to enjoy going to coin shows to pick up various collector coins , to put in the store to re-sell, but dont anymore becuase its not worth the time , and they wont sell anyway.
Now lately, I have been attending a few shows as a consumer , just for something to do, and if I see something I like , i buy it. Somedealers are willing to deal now based on current market conditions, some are not, and are holding strong on price. However, I see several dealers with the same inventory they had 2 years ago!!
World Collection
British Collection
German States Collection
Prove it you say??
Ever notice how Heritage prices are dropping between auctions on coins that were once strong? do the search and compare.
Teletrade almost always had the last 3-4 sales posted on a current coin so you could see it selling for more each time an example came up. No so much anymore, it is not in their interest to post past results on a decline.
PCGS seems to have dropped the ball on prices realized, again, not in their interest to show downward trends.
I sell on Eaby, anybody bragging about higher than expected sales amounts? Not from what I am seeing.
WS
coins setting new records. We also have the mountains of dipped out dead, lusterless MS coins
dragging the market down by the sheer weight of these fairly ugly zombies. The difficult action
I see is in the 5 - 20,000 range of coins. Collectors in the more advanced status, myself included are
demanding not just more but everything in the coins we are buying. Anything less then full luster, a lot
of originality, nice original color and surfaces flawless for the grade are just not going anywhere.DCAM Proof
coins, require deep black and white fields with deep frost on the devices and very clean devices
free of those pesky frost breaks. These are the coins that will bring the money and easy sales down the road.
The just miss coins are the ones that will suffer losses as the economy suffers yet more tribulations.
While high grade is important at out level of collecting, the highest grade may not be the most beautiful or well
balanced coin and that is what , at least I am looking for. Coins can be compared to beautiful paintings when one
takes into account color, strike, surface condition, luster and originality , or as much as can be reasonably expected.
This mid range is where I see the big battle between price, vrs grade vrs overall quality, balance and beauty.
The lower grades of coins where about 90% of the action takes place has been over shadowed by the PM values and their
recent rather violent gyrations in price. Remember, Numismatics, is a hobby composed of a number of distinct and separate
categories of coins.
Overall, I would say, taking PMs out of the mix as well as the million dollar type coins, the market is rather static, except for the
mid range catagorie that I have chosen to swim in.
Camelot
jdimmick
+1
spot on analysis of what I am seeing, very well articulated.
gary-
I have seen a good fifty or so Liberty Nickels, all but two of which were imo either marginal for the grade or overgraded. One of the nice Nickels went for stupid money @ a Signature Sale, I bought the other one. I have not found a single SLQ that I thought was anything special. Note, many of the coins I found to be unacceptable had green CAC stickers.
To summarize, if the coin is "all there," someone might pay strong money for it (but don't bet the farm on it). No one wants the other stuff. Note, I ignore the bullion markets, as they don't affect what I collect.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Note, many of the coins I found to be unacceptable had green CAC stickers.
You have offended many Forum members with that blasphmous statement sir, but...
Zombies! Zombie coins. Zombie inventories. Zombie auctions. Zombie shows. Zombie dealers. Perfect!
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i> jdmmnick
Great analysis. I believe what you have experienced is quite accurately the situation for the larger dealer segment.
<< <i>This is a difficult and somewhat confusing market indeed. We have the rare, hyper expensive
coins setting new records. We also have the mountains of dipped out dead, lusterless MS coins
dragging the market down by the sheer weight of these fairly ugly zombies. The difficult action
I see is in the 5 - 20,000 range of coins. Collectors in the more advanced status, myself included are
demanding not just more but everything in the coins we are buying. Anything less then full luster, a lot
of originality, nice original color and surfaces flawless for the grade are just not going anywhere.DCAM Proof
coins, require deep black and white fields with deep frost on the devices and very clean devices
free of those pesky frost breaks. These are the coins that will bring the money and easy sales down the road.
The just miss coins are the ones that will suffer losses as the economy suffers yet more tribulations.
While high grade is important at out level of collecting, the highest grade may not be the most beautiful or well
balanced coin and that is what , at least I am looking for. Coins can be compared to beautiful paintings when one
takes into account color, strike, surface condition, luster and originality , or as much as can be reasonably expected.
This mid range is where I see the big battle between price, vrs grade vrs overall quality, balance and beauty.
The lower grades of coins where about 90% of the action takes place has been over shadowed by the PM values and their
recent rather violent gyrations in price. Remember, Numismatics, is a hobby composed of a number of distinct and separate
categories of coins.
Overall, I would say, taking PMs out of the mix as well as the million dollar type coins, the market is rather static, except for the
mid range catagorie that I have chosen to swim in. >>
There are mountains of zombie coins. I used to buy some of them, and maybe still do for something very rare, but mostly not. NGC has really shot themselves in the foot IMHO, with some of the icky stuff they slab. I still will buy them, but I look twice as hard at a coin in their slab...looking for the problem that they think is "market acceptable".
I'm not a total kool-aid drinker, but I think PCGS is more consistent. I see more overgraded stuff there than I like, but generally they're pretty good.
FYI, I don't see many CAC coins that I disagree with, but am only looking at a few series.
I'm mostly done with sets I was working on, both in coins and numislit, so it might be a slow 2012 for me.
<< <i>Excluding the precious metal factor, I think you will find the market for great pieces very strong, everything else in the doldrums. >>
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< <i>I can only comment locally:
The past year or so, collector coins have been dead. Most of the collectors that were working on mercury dimes, indian heads, lincolns, washington quarters, wLH etc have had to liquidate over the past 12-18 months for various reasons. I might have a couple folks who pick up something on occasion but these are retired colonels, retired proffesionals who have solid funds. Now in this area, it has never been strong for coins priced over 500 bucks, but there were various active collectors for the above.
By this time the bullion train was already on a tear!
During the big run-up in silver and gold prices, many people were jumping on the band wagon to get a taste of the action. I had a few strong customers who started buying in large quantities at around 900 gold/ 25 silver. They slowed up and almost went dormant at 1600gold/35 silver , then came the late to the table buyers, to get it on the action chasing silver all the way to 49.00, by then gold was outpriced for several, so they chased silver even more. Then the big drop from 49, which effected silver more so than gold. Scared away quite a few permanetly.
Once it leveled out , several people converted over to gold, even if it was smaller denominations. Still active buyers on silver up till it crossed back at 40. then the buyers virtually stopped. By this time, most of the gold buyers were getting cautious as well.
With all the news of record highs in gold /silver we were buying silver /gold coins, scrap at 15-20 k per day with little to no actual buyers over the counter, everthing had to be shiped. That is a very strong number for a small shop like mine in a smaller sized town.
Then the recent drop, scared the heck out of several, a few were even in panic. However, with the price lower, several of my earlier buyers started coming back around the past two weeks to pick up some more silver at 30, problem is now we are not buying no where near as much and hardly any is coming in the door becuase the price is too low currently for several to sell, and most of the other folks had already sold out. People are still very cautious after two significnat drops, I am curious how this is going to affect folks buying when it starts to rise again!!!!
Back to collectors, they still are not around, we have very limited inventory of collector coins in the store now, and nobody cares, There are days in which I dont even put out the trays of coins, and no one even asks where they are. I used to enjoy going to coin shows to pick up various collector coins , to put in the store to re-sell, but dont anymore becuase its not worth the time , and they wont sell anyway.
Now lately, I have been attending a few shows as a consumer , just for something to do, and if I see something I like , i buy it. Somedealers are willing to deal now based on current market conditions, some are not, and are holding strong on price. However, I see several dealers with the same inventory they had 2 years ago!! >>
Spot on I have had a harder time as the past two years have gone by to get rid of the numismatic material Ive been picking up, lots has no interest or has to be severely underpriced for it to get moving.
rarity plus high grade plus nice overall appearance.
Camelot
magnificent specimens, of a degree of rarity and extraordinary
beauty, will be moving upwards in demand. Ordinary gems, more
common material ,will be static to a downwards bias. It's gonna be a
tough market to make a buck in. Perhaps and I really hope I am wrong,
the worst is yet to be in economics as well as coin values. As the
market turns and changes, I continue to prune my Legacy Collection, to stay
on top of this rapid moving hobby. While the collection remains reasonably large, for a
salmon size collector, I am moving more towards an increased cash position,
keeping only the best of the best, in the Collection.
Camelot
Just FYI last night an eBay auction closed for a 1964-D Kennedy half-dollar it was raw and would grade 64-65 for sure with nice toning. The final price was $12.50 Im pretty sure the melt value is greater than that.
Then I sold a 1900 Lafayette dollar PCGS MS63 w/nice color, I think grey sheet is about $1700 mine sold for $1250 and after I deduct the 12+% that eBay gets I’m at $1100
I think if all coins were being sold as true auctions and not as BIN, then we would be seeing prices drop like a stone across the board on coins, except for ultra rare coins that are not affected since people at the top are not affected by this “recession”.
<< <i>Good time to be a buyer? >>
Next year will be even a better time to be a buyer.
roadrunner
<< <i>Good time to be a buyer? >>
If you have the sustainable funds, then yes I would say so
perhaps the later part of 2012.
Camelot
must be defined and the action for that segment(s) specified.
Camelot
I know a ditty nutty as a fruitcake Goofy as a goon and silly as a loon Some call it pretty others call it crazy but they all sing this tune: Mairzy Doats And Dozy Doats and liddle lamzy divey A kiddley divey too, wouldn't you? Yes! Mairzy doats And Dozy Doats and liddle lamzy divey A kiddley divey too, wouldn't you? If the words sound queer, and funny to your ear, a little bit jumbled and jivey, Sing "Mares eat oats and does eat oats and little lambs eat ivy" Oh! Mairzy Doats and Dozy Doats and liddle lamzy divey A kiddley divey too, wouldn't you - oo? A kiddley divey too, wouldn't you?