Options
***SEPTEMBER 2011 Gold and Silver Stocks/Options/Futures trading thread***
ProofCollection
Posts: 5,408 ✭✭✭✭✭
This is a continuation of the monthly thread for discussing relatively short or near term movements in precious metals and related securities.
August was a wild month. What will Sept have in store?
August was a wild month. What will Sept have in store?
0
Comments
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
<< <i>Wow! PC going on record on a $2,400 call on Au for September 2011! >>
It seems incredible, but if we are indeed in a runaway phase then it's possible and likely, althogh it sounds unfathomable at the moment. But with O's "big plan" announcement and the state of the world right now. And think about it. Mr O's plan has to be HUGE. You can't hype up a plan and wait a few weeks to disclose something that isn't mind-blowing. TARP 3, QE 10, whatever, it's going to be huge, and it should be good for gold. One also has to wonder why the US Mint pulled all of their gold offerings off the market. A typical re-pricing, or do they know something we don't?
<< <i>
<< <i>Wow! PC going on record on a $2,400 call on Au for September 2011! >>
It seems incredible, but if we are indeed in a runaway phase then it's possible and likely, althogh it sounds unfathomable at the moment. But with O's "big plan" announcement and the state of the world right now. And think about it. Mr O's plan has to be HUGE. You can't hype up a plan and wait a few weeks to disclose something that isn't mind-blowing. TARP 3, QE 10, whatever, it's going to be huge, and it should be good for gold. One also has to wonder why the US Mint pulled all of their gold offerings off the market. A typical re-pricing, or do they know something we don't? >>
I hope you know I was just funning
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Gapping to new highs in thin overnight trading on a Holiday weekend is the modis operandi of the bull manipulators. >>
Especially on declining volume. Note GLD put in 7 straight days of lowering volume during this $1702-$1900+ move. Today was the first up volume GLD day in almost
2 weeks. But price fell. Miners whipsawed today in as many 3 different directions. I'm dizzy just thinking about it. Regardless, miners are looking a bit on the bearish side right now
even with GDX and Newmont setting all time highs today.
roadrunner
Gold getting clobbered again tonight, but I'm not ready to call this bearish. So far the retracement is healthy for the pattern. We'll have to see. I'm guessing O's big plan on Thursday will bring some new life, and the pattern would matche the one from 8-22. A new high on a day with a red candle, followed by another red candle, then a distinct low coming in on a green candle marking a short-term bottom. Although we do have to be alert that we aren't seeing a double top.
GDXJ has not come close to making new highs on this run so that also lends a little bid of doubt as to whether miners are finally out of the woods. The producing seniors and large
intermediates have lead the most recent charge. GDXJ has already filled it's most recent gap. But there is a deeper one down at 36.1 that it might be considering. Both of these
gaps are within easy reach this morning.
It would appear gold is tracing out a corrective C leg now. Question remains if makes higher low or a lower low ($1702 previous low). The higher low theory probably fits better.
The huge gap at $1665-$1680 still remains. Gold's July-September uptrend line holds to around $1780.
roadrunner
It may not be huge in terms of dollars, but I agree that the implications will probably be wide-reaching. Nothing we can do except wait.
As for the Mint, I'd like to see them react to this drop with a nice decrease in pricing. What are the odds?
I knew it would happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I knew it would happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>It is very possible that miners will outperform the metals going forward. >>
Sure starting to look that way. Miners had an up day while gold was down 3%. How often has that happened it recent memory?
GDX filled a lower gap today but GDXJ did not bother with that deeper one at 36.1 before moving higher. It only got down to the upper 36's.
Note that GDX and GDXJ moved up during the day to fill those large opening gaps. Very impressive. But still not home free. They rode the
tails of the stock market today which helped immensely. Miners ruled the metals today. Something Cohodk thinks might happen more often.
If one doesn't like the added risk of the junior non-producers (ie GDXJ). There is always NUGT which is a 2X bullish GDX ETF. The double leverage makes up
for some of the sluggishness often seen in the larger miners. NUGT will no doubt compete well with GDXJ. Just different ways of applying the leverage.
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
it would probably still have to retreat and back test that break out. I'd be considering a b/o but would not yet be convinced. If I knew what the fundamentals were behind
the chart I'd probably let that sway my judgement on the break. If it were a chart closely related to the dollar, I'd possibly pick the down direction because of those fundys.
The movement upwards in 2011 still looks choppy rather than impulsive indicating it's still in a corrective phase. It's really been in a diamond corrective pattern for the
past 7 yrs and is just now coming out of it. Often times they fake in the opposite direction that they want to move to. If one ignores that 2009 spike, the 9 yr downtrend
would be broken if a level of 3.4 were reached. It still has a ways to go to get there.
roadrunner
As far as gold goes, it looks like there is some more downside in store for it. I'm looking to get in around $1750-1770, but I'm not that confident we'll see it dip that far.
I think there is a possibility that the dollar could be breaking out bigtime against this rather important emerging(ed) economy/currency. Possibility exists for a massive inverse head and shoulders pattern. If indeed a breakout then the target would easily be 10 years highs. Interesting that as money flowed from the Euro into the Swiss Franc, virtually nothing went to the Polish zloty. Why didnt money flow to one of the fastest growing economies on the planet? We will need to closely watch money flows into other emerging markets--Brazil, Russia, India, Turkey, very closely over the coming months. It may tell a lot about future global growth rates and expectations for inflation and the value of the dollar and PMs.
The dollar is currently testing 6 year highs agains the Turkish Lira and Indian Rupee chart is similar to the Zloty so it certainly looks as though money is leaving emerging economies.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Gold is currently on the 20dma, a level it has not closed below since June.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
A very sobering thought from David Galland
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
And their still blaming everything on Nixon, Poor guy.
Those words were echoed just a few weeks ago, when both former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and Obama economic advisor Larry Summers, in separate interviews, said almost the same, paraphrased as, “There is no chance of the US defaulting on its bonds, not when our government can borrow dollars and print new dollars to meet any future obligations.”
Of course, Greenspan and Summers were referring to an overt default – of just not paying – and not to a covert default engineered by inflation.
This has been the conventional wisdom. The fact that they continue to mouth the same old promises about fiscal responsibility while creating more than $4 Trillion in new debt in 2 1/2 years, while asking, no - demanding another $ 1/2 Trillion for more political campaign spending "work projects" leaves me cold.
If the dollar is going to get stronger, it's only because most other major currencies are going into the crapper faster. These money flows that you speak of are the same thing that we've been conditioned to believe are real. Greenspan and Summers still believe that fiat is real and that their stash of fiat is the end game.
Their goal is to make you believe in a fabrication so that you continue to support their scheme. You can play that game and hope not to get burned, or you can acknowledge that you are going to get burned anyway and go down swinging.
Your charts simply show what you would normally expect when several currencies are in the final throes of capitulation. The dollar might make it through Phase One, but so will gold. Silver will do what it always does - it will function as a highly excitable, highly speculative indicator and ultimately as a form of money.
That's my opinion until I see some significant change in how the moneymen work their system. They aren't going to change.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Former VP Cheney, who fashions himself a fiscal conservative, let the mask drop when, in 2002, he stated that “Reagan proved deficits don’t matter.” >>
Regan did prove that deficits don't matter - to the politicians that create them. Unfortunately they do matter very much to the hard working taxpayer who sees the value of everything he has, including his savings and takehome pay, be driven into the ground while the cost for new things continues upward.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
exchange. That model worked for almost 20 yrs after Reagan left office. Unfortunately, it's now totally dead. The world finally caught on. 25-30 yrs of deficits not mattering, now matter a lot.
Some good gap filling by GDXJ just under 36 the past couple of days. It will probably go a bit lower into Thursday as the standard options expiration "whacking" occurs before Friday.
TBond auction week was shifted a day this week (Mon-Wed on 3/10/30 yr TBonds). I attribute some of the PM weakness to that. Gold and silver still coiling....a move is coming.
roadrunner
Gold has crashed thru the 20dma and is now threatening to break the uptrend from July.
I hope the breakouts in $HUI and GDX were not bull traps. The $XAU which I believe has more credibility did not push to new highs.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Only this time they aren't letting the "Lehmans" go down.
roadrunner
Looks like your train is about to pull into the station...
The dollar is is right up against the 200dma on the daily charts. A fall below it puts it right back into a gravity situation. Down. Watching with interest. MJ
dollar chart at the 200
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Excellent up to date gold charts for Elliot Wave/TA enthusiasts. The last 2 charts on today's update gives a detailed window. Gold appears to be marking an ABCDE
consolidation triangle with $1702 as the probable low already in. The previous 2 wave was a sharp pull back, hence the call for this 4th wave to be a sideways move.
This is only Quad's best guess on what the action presents. It's not a price prediction as he clearly states. This is some of the best detailed charting on the web.
roadrunner
I turn to you on the Wave reporting. The only waves I was ever good at were of the tasty variety in Hawaii in a previous life time. I should have accepted that volleyball scholarship at U of H back in the day. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
be stronger so I'm not convinced yet of a new bullish move. I'm beginning to like this "Ted" NUGT thing.
Some JPM silver manipulators aired out in today's dirty laundry. A wrist slap is in order!
King World news update on silver manipulation case
____________________________
With gold OE only 7 trading days away (9/27) we might still get some more downward influences to gold. Fed meeting next Tues/Wed as well as TBond auctions (9/27-9/29) could all exert negative influences. Also toss in the usual end of quarter and end of month bashing that is often seen. While September is usually not the bashing month, the normal cycle has been pushed up several weeks to a month. So this end of Sept is more like an end of August. Sinclair site has noted that a corrective trend usually lasts from a minimum of 18 to a typical max of 34 days. We're now at day 19. TPTB in US and EUland are still working out the bugs in their new currency deal....and pushing back on gold seems to be part of that.
On the charting side it's a mixed bag for gold, but overall more items on the bearish side imo.
Bearish:
Gold (and Ag) rebounded to touch the 10 ema today but closed on the 3 ema.
3-10-20 ema/dma ribbon is inverted in bearish orientation
Trix 9/9 and 6/9, macd, stoch still headed sharply down with momentum
ROC 12 no real turn yet
Aroon10 still on bearish X-over. Usually the + line hits zero before the turn
ADX still on downtrend
W%R has briefly touched the -80 line. More often than not the -80 line gets tagged twice, even if a higher low occurs.
*Parallel down channel still points to the $1650-1680 area. Today's high of $1822 touched the upper channel line for the 3rd time. Note the lower channel line only has one touch so far on 6 Sept at $1790. If that line is extended back it also runs near the $1912 high back around 22 August. It also runs through the sharp breakout/swing point on Sept 1st.
Bullish:
QuadG's ABCDE correction chart on his blog suggests $1702 should remain the low. $1762 early today could have been the next higher low.
Gold bounced above it's July-Sept uptrend line after piercing it both yesterday and again today (silver is still below its line and backtested it today - bearish)
RSI and CCI have turned up as of today and showed a bounce
BB20's and Slope20 both have flattened out...ready for a direction/trend change
MFI, Accumulation/Distribution turned upwards again
Volume today showing a slight increase and large enough to have begun a new trend. But not a bold volume change by any means.
*If channel described in the bearish case is instead a contracting wedge, then the necessary two touches on upper and lower lines are satisfied. The lower wedge line doesn't seem to backtrack to any key transistion pts.
GDX and GDXJ came back strongly in the afternoon today after a strong morning bounce. GDX closed above the 10 ema which is surprising after yesterday's deep dip during the peak of OE bashing. One more positive day and the 3-10-20 ribbon will be back in bullish alignment. Gold miners continue to rule over the metal with a >2X gain vs GLD today. Silver miners didn't manage the same move as Silver which is a bearish talking point. GPL had a strong day but the other silvers seemed lackluster with 3 of them posting losses (CDE, HL, and SSRI).
roadrunner
<< <i>Dave
The dollar is is right up against the 200dma on the daily charts. A fall below it puts it right back into a gravity situation. Down. Watching with interest. MJ
dollar chart at the 200 >>
Im really not concerned about that at all. The dollar ripped up thru the 200dma and got overbought. Overbought is a sign of strength. The only way the dollar index can go lower is if the Euro goes higher. That aint gonna happen. The ECB will be cutting rates to near nothing very soon. Europe is already in a recession. The Swiss have pegged their currency to the Euro, so a "strong" currency has now become weak. As the dollar rises, commodities will fall thus weakening the rock currencies. Right now the US dollar has no competition among currencies.
I believe the dollar is probably going higher, a lot higher.
For disclosure I am short the Euro, silver and base metals. "IT", may be starting.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Seems like a reasonable strategy right now. I still think silver can be a wild card. It just finished a bounce off the lower 2 hr BB this morning so a move back upwards
would fit in the pattern. GDXJ made a nice move down basically independent of GDX, couldn't help but pick some up at under $35.10. The quick rebound to $35.90 was
too tempting, so I unloaded it an hour later. GSR moved back above 45 suggesting more headwinds for PM weakness. We're not far from end of month/qtr negative influences
on the PMs'. And with weakness already being shown, odds are good it's only going to accelerate. Bob Hoye had some interesting charts on copper this week suggesting it's
pretty ripe for at least a 10% correction.
roadrunner
RE:copper--FCX hit a 52 wk low. Since peaking in Feb, copper has been on a slow and steady decline--maybe accelerating now?
Also for disclosure, my trades are mostly very short term oriented so I may or may not hold these positions tomorrow.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
1. In 18 of last 22 years, gold has rallied between Labor Day and Xmas.
2. The announcement by Swiss Natl Bank to buy Euros removes the Swiss Franc a "safe have" or alternative.
3. The announcement by five major central banks to provide liquidity for Europe.
4. The current negative real interest rate environment.
5. The True Money Supply continues to rise exponentially.
Finally a fitting quote I'll pass on:
First a quote by President Andrew Jackson: “Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time, and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in bread-stuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits among yourselves, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves. I intend to rout you out and by the Eternal God, I will rout you out.” (Spoken to a delegation of bankers requesting the extension of the 1832 Bank Renewal Act).
Will probably not be posting too much after this week as I'll be doing some international travel. First about 10 days in France, and then a few weeks later 3 weeks in Australia. Will have my eyes and ears open to see what good information I can pick up.
Roger that. But we've also probably never seen such a wild July/August since the 1970's. It may well trump/net out any of the usual strong
Sept-Nov seasonality. Then again, it might not.
roadrunner
<< <i> These metals have a mind of their own now.
roadrunner >>
Agreed, and its really good to see.