OPS...too much given to this stat
Mickey71
Posts: 4,252 ✭✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
I realize this is a touchy subject; but I also think this is very debatable.
Winning run on 2nd... Who do you want up Gonzalez or Bautista? I say Gonzalez.
""""""""""""""""based on past history Who do you want up Ichiro or Dunn? I say Ichiro.
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""Ruth or Cobb? I say Cobb.
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""Aaron or Carew I say Carew.
My point is....too much is given to the HR and walk. I'm not saying that the OPS is not a decent measure....I just don't think it's the end all know all that some think it is. For power guys... walks are very overrated and for speed guys...walks are very underrated.
Here's my best question regarding all of this.....If it's such a great thing.... and such a positive for him and his team for McGwire to take a walk...then why would the defense do this intentionally. It helps the defense.
And yes....most unintentional walks are intentional...the pitchers are being very careful.
Winning run on 2nd... Who do you want up Gonzalez or Bautista? I say Gonzalez.
""""""""""""""""based on past history Who do you want up Ichiro or Dunn? I say Ichiro.
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""Ruth or Cobb? I say Cobb.
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""Aaron or Carew I say Carew.
My point is....too much is given to the HR and walk. I'm not saying that the OPS is not a decent measure....I just don't think it's the end all know all that some think it is. For power guys... walks are very overrated and for speed guys...walks are very underrated.
Here's my best question regarding all of this.....If it's such a great thing.... and such a positive for him and his team for McGwire to take a walk...then why would the defense do this intentionally. It helps the defense.
And yes....most unintentional walks are intentional...the pitchers are being very careful.
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I'll let skin and others address the other points, but this statement is false. The leadoff walk is one of the most frustrating things for any pitching coach.
Edit to add: And I don't think you can ever give too much credit for a HR. It is the best possible outcome regardless of situation, for any batter to accomplish.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>And yes....most unintentional walks are intentional...the pitchers are being very careful. >>
No chance of that. Probably less than 15% of them are. Watch the catcher's glove and you'll see that most pitchers aren't all that accurate with their pitches. They routinely miss their target by 10+ inches.
Just my $0.02.
<< <i>I think if you are talking about a specific situation, i.e. winning run on second, you will probably have a different opinion on who you would want up in that situation. If you are talking about which player you want on your team day in and day out the guy with the higher OPS is going to be the answer a majority of the time (defense and position being equal).
Just my $0.02. >>
Well said.
OPS does not give too much credit for a walk. A walk is only measured once in that measurement....obviously in the OB% portion.
However, singles are measured twice in that equation. Once in the OB% portion, and once in the SLG% portion. Same for the 2B, 3B, and HR.
So in this measurement, singles are given a value that is basically TWICE the value of a walk. IN reality,overall, singles are not twice the value of a walk...they are less than that.
Based on the actual major league baseball play by play data, the average walk has a run value of appx .33 runs above average, and a single .49 runs above average.
In the specific instance YOU gave, you are correct in that a single has MORE value than that, compared to a walk.
However, you are only using one instance. THere are 24 base/out instances possible in a game i.e. Man on 1st, one out. Man on 1st two outs. Bases loaded zero outs, bases loaded one out, etc...
If you just use an example here or there, you will come to all sorts of incomplete and flawed conclusions.
In baseball, hitters go through ALL those situations, not just a specific one here or there. So while there are situations where a high walk guy will have LESS value than what his overall OPS says, there are other situations where the high walk guy will have MORE value than what his overall OPS says.
It is the totality that matters! Unless one can find a way to move their players around the lineup while the game is in progress, and then match their skill set to the exact situation...don't think that will happen though
Everyone wants answers to questions that we sought out about 30 years ago, and never really had a way to know. FOrtunately for baseball fans, most of the questions have been answered to a very high degree. Here is a link from Tom Tango that gives a detailed break down of actual play by play data in MLB from 1999-2002 as an example.
http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html
<< <i>I realize this is a touchy subject; but I also think this is very debatable.
Winning run on 2nd... Who do you want up Gonzalez or Bautista? I say Gonzalez.
""""""""""""""""based on past history Who do you want up Ichiro or Dunn? I say Ichiro.
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""Ruth or Cobb? I say Cobb.
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""Aaron or Carew I say Carew.
My point is....too much is given to the HR and walk. I'm not saying that the OPS is not a decent measure....I just don't think it's the end all know all that some think it is. For power guys... walks are very overrated and for speed guys...walks are very underrated.
Here's my best question regarding all of this.....If it's such a great thing.... and such a positive for him and his team for McGwire to take a walk...then why would the defense do this intentionally. It helps the defense.
And yes....most unintentional walks are intentional...the pitchers are being very careful. >>
that's quite the cherry picking, but I'm not sure why you'd take Cobb over Ruth when Ruth was a .342/.474/.690 career to Ty Cobb 366/.433/.512. If the object is to drive in a run from 2b, I'll take Ruth's massive edge in the ability to leave the yard over Cobb's 24 point edge in BA. Like the other guys have noted, it's about value across a season. You can make instances like these across all spectrums. ie. 9th inning, Joey Votto at the plate with the bases loaded and 1 out. Do you want Roy Halladay or Jonny Venters or Craig Kimbrel on the mound. In this one instance probably Kimbrel or Venters. But who do you want the rest of the time...Halladay who will give you 240 IP...or Kimbrall or Venters at say 70-80 IP across the entire season? Probably Halladay.
<< <i>Grote...I agree with the leadoff walk thing. I said walks for speed guys...top of the order guys that they are underrated. You never want to walk Vince Coleman, Ichiro, Ozzie Smith, Raines in the leadoff spot, etc... >>
well you usually don't/didn't have to worry about walking guys like Ichiro, Juan Pierre, or post-1987 Vince Coleman given that they are/were both largely allergic to taking walks. In nearly 8,000 PAs Ichiro has only walked 490 times....which doesn't necessarily crush his overall value, because he also doesn't strike out much, but it also leads to a lot of Juan Pierre-esque empty ABs of soft rollers to the infield or pop-outs or any various other methods of not moving along runners or driving runners in. Juan Pierre - 7,400 PAs, 418 BBs. Ozzie Smith who generally spent the majority of his career hitting in the 2-hole, also spent about 30% of his career hitting at the bottom of the order 7th & 8th, and was one of the premier out-makers in recent history along with Juan Pierre and Omar Vizquel. Among those you listed, Tim Raines is the exception. An on-base machine (career OB% of .385 and OPS of .810) who could also drive runners in batting leadoff in the NL for the majority of his career with nearly (980) 1,000 career RBIs. (season average of 63 RBis to Ichiro's 56 RBI's despite having a pitcher hitting in front of him for 13 years).
Raines - 10359 PA, 8872 ABs - 2502 Games
Ichiro - 7923 PA, 7326 ABs - 1718 Games
that's the value of taking walks. 11+% higher rate of getting on base despite Ichiro's .327 - .294 edge in career BA. So Raines was better at getting on base, and better at driving in runs than Ichiro despite having a BA 33 points lower, and having a pitcher hitting in front of him for the majority of his career.
That doesn't mean that speed guys like Ichiro, Coleman, or Juan Pierre don't have value, but I'd much rather have those types of players at a more premium defensive position such as 2b or SS or to a lesser extent CF. A healthy Brian Roberts, or Jose Reyes or Ozzie Smith for example. You can live with Ozzie's .666 OPS when he's playing elite defense at a premium position. I'd have no problem with Brett Gardner playing CF for my team, but I wouldn't want Ichiro at a corner OF position making $18M a year regardless of how good he was defensively in his prime. Regardless, it's all about runs created which is what OPS does for you. Whether than means getting on base via BB, or single or XBH. Of course you also have to factor in skill decline...and when you have an aging speed/singles hitter/non-walk-taker like Ichiro, it's what leads to a -0.6 WAR because they can't do much else...incidentally this season also includes a decline defensively with a woeful -1.2 defensive WAR. Conversely, you could look at someone like David Ortiz, over the previous two seasons when it looked like he was close to finished - ie 2009's .238/.332/.462, he was still able to post a positive+ 0.3 WAR because his contact rate decline that led to a .238 BA, could at least be off-set by drawing 74 BBs while running into a HR 28 times
Statistics are a generalization, they show what has the best chance to happen, not what WILL happen every time..........I like OPS!
Joe
I don't watch ESPN much anymore, but the times I do watch, I have noticed talk and mention of more metrics too. Some local sports radio guys even talk about it(a nearly IMPOSSIBLE feat to expect just ten years ago!).
THe great thing is that thirty years ago, we wanted this stuff, but just didn't have all the play by play info. Now it is all there.
Many questions posed on this board from people who are anti-advanced metrics, are answered there for them. They just have to get used to new terms and benchmarks...but the stuff they crave is what these measurements are about.
<< <i>Tie game, bottom of the ninth. Two outs, runner on 3rd. Hard hit ball to to the right of the SS. Only a great play can save the game. Who do you want at SS, Mark Belanger or Cal Ripken? >>
Belanger based on the defensive stats. I never really heard of him prior to your post, but he seems to be the second rated defensive SS behind Ozzie. It looks like he may have been a better fielder in his peak, but could not match Ozzie's tenure.