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Who is taking profits at this level?

Just thinking to myself, it maybe time for some people to take a profit. If one sold 20% of physical holdings, which covered original investment, the remainder 80% is truly all profit. Not a bad ROI for 3 years.
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  • fishteethfishteeth Posts: 2,245 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I took some profit on gold today. Sold about 20% of my bullion holdings today at ANA.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    For those taking profits:

    When you finish paying the 28% tax on those profits, what are your alternative investment options?

    If you turn around and buy precious metals again, haven't you just forfeited 28% of your position (on the amount you sold)?

    I'm not saying that you shouldn't do it, but I am asking the questions...
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • Great question jmski52.


  • << <i>For those taking profits:

    When you finish paying the 28% tax on those profits, what are your alternative investment options?

    If you turn around and buy precious metals again, haven't you just forfeited 28% of your position (on the amount you sold)?

    I'm not saying that you shouldn't do it, but I am asking the questions... >>



    You are right. At some point you're going to pay the taxman and forfeit some profit. Sell when taxes are low?

    Just asking the question.



  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    At some point you're going to pay the taxman and forfeit some profit. Sell when taxes are low?

    Three observations -

    1) Holding physical precious metals is much like a tax-deferred retirement account, since the tax is only due when you sell and not before. This is one reason why it makes no sense to hold metals in an IRA or a 401K.

    You can't really sell when taxes are low unless they change the status of precious metals from the 28% collectibles category to a lower tax rate category like the current 15% regular capital gains. The caveat is that the tax code is not a static situation and is subject to change brought about by political considerations.

    2) If you are trading back and forth, this is "churning" your own account and the taxes will simply erode your position unless you are permanently exiting your precious metals position.

    (The reason people like ETFs inside a tax-deferred retirement account is because you can use it as a tax-deferred trading account, and it is extremely convenient compared to physical metals. OTOH, there may be some risk inherent in the ETFs if they do not hold actual metals in inventory.)

    3) PMs have the advantage of not leaving a paper trail unless you want to leave one. The flip side is that your record-keeping is essential in order to maintain your tax basis in the event of a sale.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • guitarwesguitarwes Posts: 9,266 ✭✭✭



    << <i>3) PMs have the advantage of not leaving a paper trail unless you want to leave one. The flip side is that your record-keeping is essential in order to maintain your tax basis in the event of a sale. >>




    Cash is quiet but speaks very loudly......if you get my drift.


    @ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work.
    Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
  • OnlyGoldIsMoneyOnlyGoldIsMoney Posts: 3,359 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I am not considerinig taking any profits. I don't know of a better place for my savings at present.

    Since the S&P downgrade I have added additional gold to the stack. I am glad I did.
  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    Who is taking profits at this level?

    I've defintely been selling more than buying the last 10 trading days.
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.


  • << <i>For those taking profits:

    When you finish paying the 28% tax on those profits, what are your alternative investment options?

    If you turn around and buy precious metals again, haven't you just forfeited 28% of your position (on the amount you sold)?

    I'm not saying that you shouldn't do it, but I am asking the questions... >>



    If you've got debt such as a mortgage it may be good to pay a bit off. If they fix the debt problem (a big if), gold could crash and interest rates could start heading up, would then be good to have less personal debt.
    Still thinking of what to put in my signature...
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,793 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>For those taking profits:

    When you finish paying the 28% tax on those profits, what are your alternative investment options?

    If you turn around and buy precious metals again, haven't you just forfeited 28% of your position (on the amount you sold)?

    I'm not saying that you shouldn't do it, but I am asking the questions... >>



    28% this year. I foresee it getting worse in the years ahead. "Trading in" the cheap stuff now at a good price and buying back in at a good price might not be a bad idea. You're gonna pay taxes on profit one way or the other. Might not be a bad idea to take the hit on the bullion showing the highest profit (lowest cost) and replacing it with higher cost stuff that will probably be taxed heavier down the road. This replacement method serves two purposes: it subjects you a tax rate that is probably only going to get worse later and it allows you to reset your basis at a higher dollar amount. Boils down to the additional expense involved with selling and also with replacement buying.

    Which brings up another question. Are coin shops, that use a Schedule C, subject to the 28% on gold and silver coins or do those sales get taxed at the shops regular rate along with the rest of the inventory?

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • piecesofmepiecesofme Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭
    Which brings up another question. Are coin shops, that use a Schedule C, subject to the 28% on gold and silver coins or do those sales get taxed at the shops regular rate along with the rest of the inventory?

    Nice rhetorical question.

    Cash is quiet but speaks very loudly......if you get my drift.

    That drift is so big, it's more like a dune. image
    To forgive is to free a prisoner, and to discover that prisoner was you.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    As far as I know schedule C sales get lumped in as regular income, bullion included. It's short term dealer inventory. But that's just mho. Oreville may have something to add.
    A dealer friend of mine is doing about $50,000 per week average on bullion purchases. He has a good accountant and if he were paying 28% + 15% soc sec for being self-employed,
    I think he would be screaming about it.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • PokermandudePokermandude Posts: 2,713 ✭✭✭
    If by profit taking, you mean increasing my bottom line of ounces before it goes higher, then yes. I am image



    << <i>1) Holding physical precious metals is much like a tax-deferred retirement account, since the tax is only due when you sell and not before. This is one reason why it makes no sense to hold metals in an IRA or a 401K. >>



    I'm not familiar with tax law, but what would be the result if (theoretically) you bought 1000oz of silver at $35/oz, sold some at $42/oz for a profit of $7000. Silver drops to $40 and you take all the proceeds and buy 1050 ounces. If all within a calendar year technically you have netted $0 (or -$35,000 if you count that initial buy). Are there still tax consequences for that "profit" of $7000? And what if silver were then to tank to $20/oz and your investment is worth $21,000?
    http://stores.ebay.ca/Mattscoin - Canadian coins, World Coins, Silver, Gold, Coin lots, Modern Mint Products & Collections
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,793 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I'm not familiar with tax law, but what would be the result if (theoretically) you bought 1000oz of silver at $35/oz, sold some at $42/oz for a profit of $7000. Silver drops to $40 and you take all the proceeds and buy 1050 ounces. If all within a calendar year technically you have netted $0 (or -$35,000 if you count that initial buy). Are there still tax consequences for that "profit" of $7000? And what if silver were then to tank to $20/oz and your investment is worth $21,000? >>



    Taxes are always due on income (profit in this case) in the year earned regardless of what you do with the proceeds. You would start the profit process all over again with the cost of the new purchase being the basis from which you would calculate profit the next time you sell. Note that the IRS expects quarterly payments for income that is not subject to other tax withholding such as your paycheck. Owe them enough taxes at the end of the year because taxes were not withheld upon payment to you or you did not pay enough quarterly taxes and you will pay an additional penalty.



    << <i>Which brings up another question. Are coin shops, that use a Schedule C, subject to the 28% on gold and silver coins or do those sales get taxed at the shops regular rate along with the rest of the inventory?

    Nice rhetorical question. >>


    Question was presented as a possible means to legally enable one to pay less taxes on gold and silver coin sales if he were to be a business (schedule C) instead of a collector (schedule D). In the first case it's business income subject to the business's tax rate based on total income and in the second case it's personal capital gains subject to the higher 28% "collectible" tax.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • IRS Capital Gains info.

    Lots of fun stuff there.
    Successful transactions with keepdachange, tizofthe, adriana, wondercoin
  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 46,111 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I am not considerinig taking any profits. I don't know of a better place for my savings at present./q]

    That's the way I feel. Unless you feel PM prices are going to fall or you need the money to make a purchase, why sell?

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Are there still tax consequences for that "profit" of $7000?

    Yes, about 28% worth. It doesn't matter what you do after you sell an asset. The mere act of selling concludes that investment and you have to take the loss or gain at that moment. It doesn't matter if the rest of your stash goes down by 90% - you've already cemented your deal on the part you sold. If you made a gain on the portion you sold, you owe the tax on that gain.

    That's why you shouldn't consider gold much more than a protection against inflation, and by the way - it does THAT very well - but only if you don't churn it and keep eroding your physical position via repeated taxable events.

    Consider this - the illusion here is that when gold goes from $300 to $1,800 you start believing that you are so smart to have multiplied your worth by 600%. Not true. All you've done is avoided an 83% loss compared to what would have happened if you held dollars instead of gold.

    The fact that you are able to protect what you've earned while most people are having their assets destroyed doesn't make you richer. It only means that you will be able to mostly maintain your current lifestyle while many of your neighbors and family will not. Who wants that? I don't.

    I'm not thrilled about that, in any sense. That is exactly why the big banks, Congress and the Administration need to be given their own pink slips asap. None of them are our friends.

    This is also why it is essential to understand the relationship between inflation (currency debasement) and taxes. It's essential to know how to minimize it, and it's essential to educate everyone you know. It's in everyone's best interest to know how the government and politicians are keeping people from benefiting even when they are working their fingers to the bone. It's essential to spread understanding.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.


  • << <i>
    Consider this - the illusion here is that when gold goes from $300 to $1,800 you start believing that you are so smart to have multiplied your worth by 600%. Not true. All you've done is avoided an 83% loss compared to what would have happened if you held dollars instead of gold.

    . >>




    I'm confused on this one. When gold was at 1,200 last summer.......

    Person A bought 1 ounce of gold
    Person B kept their money in the bank.

    A flat screen HD tv was selling for 1,200 last summer.
    That same tv is selling for 1,000 this summer.

    Person A sells his gold for 1750 after taxes and buys that big screen tv and has money left over for a few other nice items.
    Person B buys that same tv and has not as much money left over.

    What am I missing ?
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm confused on this one. When gold was at 1,200 last summer.......

    Person A bought 1 ounce of gold
    Person B kept their money in the bank.

    A flat screen HD tv was selling for 1,200 last summer.
    That same tv is selling for 1,000 this summer.

    Person A sells his gold for 1750 after taxes and buys that big screen tv and has money left over for a few other nice items.
    Person B buys that same tv and has not as much money left over.

    What am I missing ?


    First, you are missing the point that an ounce of gold is still an ounce of gold and everything else changes, but the gold does not.

    Assuming a 35% marginal tax rate.........

    If you bought an ounce of gold at $1,200 and sold with $1,750 left after taxes, that means the gold was sold for about $1,750/.65 = $2,692. So you paid about $942 in taxes. Then you bought the TV for $1,000 and had $750 left over. Good enough.

    The TV sold for $200 less than last year because it was last year's model and it was being discounted to make room for this year's model.


    But that's not what happened - because gold is not at $2,692/ounce.

    You didn't sell that ounce of gold for $2,692. More likely, you sold it for $1,750 and paid $192.50 in taxes on the gain of $550, yielding a net profit of $357.50. That $357.50 plus your original capital of $1,200 totals $1,557.50.

    If you bought the TV this year for $1,000 then you have $557.50 left over. If you had bought it last year for $1,200 - you would have $0 left over, but you'd have been watching big screen TV for the past year as a trade-off. What you've done is to have sacrificed some luxury for a year, in return for $557.50 in net savings. That's not a bad tradeoff, because now you have $557.50 left over to blow on women and fun - and after you are done, you will still have your TV!image

    However - your decisions had nothing to do with gold. If you decided not to buy the TV after all and then decided to buy your gold back, you wouldn't be able to buy your original ounce of gold back with your $1,557.50 because your position got eroded when you sold and paid tax on the gain.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Consider this - the illusion here is that when gold goes from $300 to $1,800 you start believing that you are so smart to have multiplied your worth by 600%. Not true. All you've done is avoided an 83% loss compared to what would have happened if you held dollars instead of gold.

    The fact that you are able to protect what you've earned while most people are having their assets destroyed doesn't make you richer. It only means that you will be able to mostly maintain your current lifestyle while many of your neighbors and family will not. Who wants that? I don't.


    Gold and Silver have so far outpaced the dollar's purchasing power loss since 2002 that they have gained considerable purchasing power even with taxes factored in. Gold up 7.3X and
    silver up about 9X it's a safe bet that you're up plenty after taxes. And if one has limited income otherwise (esp. retirees or those close to it), a basic set of deductions can wipe out most of today's taxability if one is using these gains to live off of. So one's personal working/tax situation certainly plays a role in this. While gold has increased 7X in the past 10 yrs, the dollar index has dropped from 121 to 74, a 39% drop. Since that 39% drop has occurred against other falling paper money one can't say the dollar has lost just 39% PP. But's it not far off. Other than PM's, oil, and some other commodities, today's average price levels are probably within 40-80% of 2001. Food might be about doubled in price and oil tripled (CCI commodity index up 3.6X). But autos, homes, clothing, appliances, furniture, computers, etc. have changed far less than 39% and probably closer to 0%. The BLS's CPI shows only a 27.6% change since 2001 so we know that it doesn't even catch the nominal paper vs. paper decline in the USDX. The USDX could technically stay at .74 if the competing basket of currencies fell by the exact same amount year after year. After 10 yrs the USDX would still be at .74 but PP could be half of what it was.

    Bottom line is that PM's have plenty left over after taxes though future gains may not (and probably will not) match past performance. The "easy" money has been made.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold


  • << <i>Are there still tax consequences for that "profit" of $7000?

    Yes, about 28% worth. It doesn't matter what you do after you sell an asset. The mere act of selling concludes that investment and you have to take the loss or gain at that moment. It doesn't matter if the rest of your stash goes down by 90% - you've already cemented your deal on the part you sold. If you made a gain on the portion you sold, you owe the tax on that gain.

    That's why you shouldn't consider gold much more than a protection against inflation, and by the way - it does THAT very well - but only if you don't churn it and keep eroding your physical position via repeated taxable events.

    Consider this - the illusion here is that when gold goes from $300 to $1,800 you start believing that you are so smart to have multiplied your worth by 600%. Not true. All you've done is avoided an 83% loss compared to what would have happened if you held dollars instead of gold.

    The fact that you are able to protect what you've earned while most people are having their assets destroyed doesn't make you richer. It only means that you will be able to mostly maintain your current lifestyle while many of your neighbors and family will not. Who wants that? I don't.

    I'm not thrilled about that, in any sense. That is exactly why the big banks, Congress and the Administration need to be given their own pink slips asap. None of them are our friends.

    This is also why it is essential to understand the relationship between inflation (currency debasement) and taxes. It's essential to know how to minimize it, and it's essential to educate everyone you know. It's in everyone's best interest to know how the government and politicians are keeping people from benefiting even when they are working their fingers to the bone. It's essential to spread understanding. >>








    "Consider this - the illusion here is that when gold goes from $300 to $1,800 you start believing that you are so smart to have multiplied your worth by 600%. Not true. All you've done is avoided an 83% loss compared to what would have happened if you held dollars instead of gold."


    This is wrong jmski. In 2001 at gold $300, the prices of goods and services were NOT 1/6th of what they are today at gold $1800. While your worth did not increase 600% (there has been some inflation), gold has far outpaced inflation since 2001. So your actual worth did increase......alot...in that time frame.


    Lets just look at it in a microscopic way to make it easy to understand. Say in 2001 you bought 1/100th oz of gold at $3. What could a person have bought in '01 with $3?

    A Mcdonalds value meal.......2 gallons of gas......a gallon of milk that was not on sale......a pack of cigarettes........3 dozen eggs.


    Now, in 2011...that 1/100th oz of gold is nominally worth $18. For $18 today you could buy:

    4 value meals.........5 gallons of gas........4 gallons of milk.......3 packs of cigarettes.......and 9 dozen eggs.



    So although gold has increased 600% in that time, inflation hasnt even come close to that and your purchasing power was not just preserved....but dramatically increased!
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    And so that amount of increase in gold value beyond inflation is the frothy bubbly part, right?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Those are good questions. And Gecko's actual numbers are closer to being technically correct. But as roadrunner points out, the gauge by which these things are measured keeps changing. The dollar index is virtually meaningless for measuring gold's rise with inflation factored in - in my opinion. The index itself is falling too, and I'd have to lean in on roadrunner's top end of the range with inflation at about 80% since 2001.

    So, even then - you say - it's not that bad and gold's potential is mostly spent. The fact is that I don't really know. Neither does anyone else. I see gold now as a nominal protection against sovereign default risk, which is rising - obviously.

    Maybe the easy money has been made, and maybe you could consider the price rise over the true rate of inflation as being "froth". And maybe after a string of government defaults occurs - which they surely will, in my opinion - the price of gold will settle at the price that reflects the true rate of inflation. And maybe that price will be considerably lower than today's nominal price in dollar bills.

    Maybe, maybe, maybe. In the meantime, I can only see it as a safety measure and go on about my life - hoping for the best, as it were. And possibly finding a new way to deploy my assets, but not seeing anything else that constitutes a good risk vs. reward tradeoff until the ultimate level of government obstruction and intrusion into our affairs becomes more settled.

    Listen to Sinclair's interview with James Turk and decide whether or not you think that gold is topped out. I agree with Sinclair until I see some *strong* indications to the contrary that we are not in serious territory.



    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • Fundamentally im with jmski all the way. I dont view each oz of gold bought as a "get rich quick" endeavor. Rather, I view it as locking away real money in anticipation of the likely event that today's fiat currency system reaches a point of total failure.

    Theres a reason why central banks and sovereign governments still actively stockpile gold. Could that reason be that even they themselves know that fiat will be a significant fail? Do they know that eventually, people will require some form of backing to future currency systems? Why in the hell else would the SAME entities that produce and distribute fiat also keep huge amounts of the "barbarous" yellow metal?
  • tydyetydye Posts: 3,894 ✭✭✭
    I sold a little bit this morning - problem stuff or ones I did not like.


  • << <i>Fundamentally im with jmski all the way. I dont view each oz of gold bought as a "get rich quick" endeavor. Rather, I view it as locking away real money in anticipation of the likely event that today's fiat currency system reaches a point of total failure.

    Theres a reason why central banks and sovereign governments still actively stockpile gold. Could that reason be that even they themselves know that fiat will be a significant fail? Do they know that eventually, people will require some form of backing to future currency systems? Why in the hell else would the SAME entities that produce and distribute fiat also keep huge amounts of the "barbarous" yellow metal? >>



    +1
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  • This and EVERY other level.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>And so that amount of increase in gold value beyond inflation is the frothy bubbly part, right? >>



    No, that's the confidence part of the fiat currency or more directly the loss of confidence in sovereign/state debt plus otc derivatives.
    Gold has been on a 10-15 yr mission to balance foreign debt accounts. In the US that number is around $7500. It did the same thing in
    the 1970's by going to a "crazy" number...that "coincidentally" balanced our sovereign debt within 3-5% ($850-$875 gold vs. $900/oz estimate).

    The GAO recently announced that between 2008-2011 the FED dumped $17 TRILL in liquidity into the world's financial system. Obviously <10% of that
    showing up in M0, M1, M2. And that doesn't even include the otc derivative debt-money portion. Anyone tracking monetary aggregrates the old fashioned way
    is not seeing the forest for the trees. Yup, minor money supply increases. image

    Out of that $17 TRILL probably half went to large US banks. Did anyone see banks post TRILLION dollar profits in any of the last 3 years? I know I didn't. Where did that
    money flow to? It had to go somewhere and buy something. What's interesting is that about $40 TRILL in otc mbs and cds derivatives were resolved/unwound during the
    2008-2011 period. And probably most of that $17 TRILL went to pay off the losing side on those derivative bets. Possibly a 20-40% loss rate. So what happens when
    the other 96% in otc derivatives (>$1 QUAD) that are not yet unwound come to the bargaining table?

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • The question is best answered before the run up occurs, to have a plan in place. I see nothing wrong with taking 10% or 20% off the table, especially if a price correction of 20% (a run of the mill average correction) would cause the loss of sleep. I have always advocated gradual accumulation, and gradual distribution. Be happy with an average price when getting in or getting out, because most timers do worse than average. This thread reminds me of another recent thread when silver went to $49, that someone started saying that they were extremely nervous, it turned out to be a good time to be nervous on silver, even if they never did buy back in when silver pulled back to $32.

    For those that are "all in" I see they continue to believe that they will hear that magic bell that rings when it is time to get out. They must lead a charmed life to be that confident, because in my many years in the markets, I've never heard the bell, never been lucky enough to get out or get short at the top. As with all major market tops, 80% of participants will ride the gold rocket all the way back down, though most of that 80% will be late comers to the game, and won't have any profits, only losses that they may sit of for decades. Keep in mind that fundamentals tend to look the best at the top, so fundamentals are among the worst timing tools for calling market turns.

    With all that, I'm not taking profits, though understand that my gold and silver holdings are only a fraction of what I have.
  • JCMhoustonJCMhouston Posts: 5,306 ✭✭✭


    << <i>gold could crash and interest rates could start heading up, would then be good to have less personal debt. >>



    If you look at businesses these days they are loading up on cheap debt, if you believe inflation is coming this is actually the right time to load up on fixed interest debt, mortgages etc. That way you will be paying the debt back with inflated dollars in the future. I am not trying to argue about whether debt is good or bad, just pointing out that if you don't mind having debt this is a good time to take it on. Debt is like margin though, it can be very dangerous if not properly managed.

    Back to the original question, my wife finally sold all her junk gold last week, she had gathered up some broken jewellry, chains, earings etc. and sold them on the day gold hit $1780. She whined a little this week but I explained that no one, even the so-called experts, can actually call the top or bottom, you get lucky sometimes but that's it. So now she is happy with her little piles of $100's.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,793 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>This is also why it is essential to understand the relationship between inflation (currency debasement) and taxes. It's essential to know how to minimize it, and it's essential to educate everyone you know. It's in everyone's best interest to know how the government and politicians are keeping people from benefiting even when they are working their fingers to the bone. It's essential to spread understanding. >>


    Inflation is a tax - a hidden tax. Only real difference is that you get no credit for it when it comes to documenting expenses. While the IRS does not recognize this cost nor allow it to be deducted as an expense, the investor should always take it into consideration when evaluating real return on personal investments. With high enough inflation it is possible to show a profit per IRS rules, but in reality suffer a loss. A person earning 2% for the year on a savings account will pay income taxes on that 2% and get no credit for his actual loss of 1% with 3% inflation. The government operates under the incorrect assumption that a dollar has the same value at the end of the tax year that it had at the beginning of the tax year. What sucks is that the inflation tax is a result of policies that it and its central banking arm are responsible for. The least they could do is recognize it's affect on taxable income by allowing us to claim it as a valid expense.

    The true measure of an ounce of gold is what it will buy. Measuring it with declining dollars gives a false indication of actual value. In the long run gold is a protector of value with little "real" profit. The IRS will not let you document the "real" gain, they require you to report the higher "on paper" gain. The difference between the two can be considered the "hidden inflation" tax or in other terms the "dollar devaluation" tax.

    To the OP, Gold is currently overbought. This however does not mean it is in a bubble or that it will not see new highs. It means a healthy correction is in order.


    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I have always advocated gradual accumulation, and gradual distribution.

    I agree with that now, more than ever. My personal inclination however is still in the accumulation mode. I've been wrong before, but hardly ever when it concerns precious metals. Probably just dumb luck.

    For those that are "all in" I see they continue to believe that they will hear that magic bell that rings when it is time to get out.

    It's possible that the bell will start ringing and that we will hear it. In 1980, my gold dealer started ringing that bell when gold was at $675-$725, and I listened to him, dumping all of my leveraged positions but keeping my physical. It worked out great. Nowadays, I don't have any leveraged positions.

    Keep in mind that fundamentals tend to look the best at the top, so fundamentals are among the worst timing tools for calling market turns.

    I'm more concerned about the political game than I am about the gold market's fundamentals at this point.

    With all that, I'm not taking profits, though understand that my gold and silver holdings are only a fraction of what I have.

    It's strange, Red Tiger. I started accumulation in 1998 and I've been "all in" since 2008. I'm not concerned, but I will tell you one thing - I watch my basket of eggs "very carefully". I make my own decisions but I try to remain objective. I'd like to become optimistic about the US economy. I'd really like that.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This time could be different than 1980. Gold crashed in 1980 because it was not needed to be linked to the world's monetary system, which was not in shambles.

    If gold is ultimately needed to play a role in backing new currencies, or a world currency, even if a limited or shared role with other fiat and commodities, then it will not
    crash in price as it did in 1980-1982. Maybe it's a 50-50 bet. Sinclair seems to think gold will retain about 80% of its final peak value as it assumes a role in a new monetary
    system. That's a stance that makes sense to me. I think once we see a final metals blow off in the next few years that $30-$50 silver and $1800-$2500 will be the lowest
    they will ever go again. A blow-off within the next 6-9 months will not be the final one, just another interim step before the next one.

    One thing everyone with an inkling of monetary knowledge is familiar with is that central banks' monopoly over the issuance of fiat currency is a destructive process of wealth redistribution - ultimately enslaving nations under a perpetual sea of debt. International money power ends up controlling the targeted nations' media, government (including the courts) and, via mercantilist corporate activities, its natural resources and productive capacity.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • percybpercyb Posts: 3,324 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>For those taking profits:

    When you finish paying the 28% tax on those profits, what are your alternative investment options?

    If you turn around and buy precious metals again, haven't you just forfeited 28% of your position (on the amount you sold)?

    I'm not saying that you shouldn't do it, but I am asking the questions... >>



    It's foolish to sell, as you well note. It's foolish to trade back and forth, as with exchange traded funds, and trying to time
    market fluctuations. It can't be done successfully. Those who profit are the brokerage firms who receive commissions
    on transactions.
    "Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley


  • << <i>I sold a little bit this morning - problem stuff or ones I did not like. >>


    I've yet to meet a piece of gold I didn't like. image
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,793 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>I sold a little bit this morning - problem stuff or ones I did not like. >>


    I've yet to meet a piece of gold I didn't like. image >>


    I always turn away customers who want to sell old, nasty gold crowns from grandpa's mouth.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • MoneyLAMoneyLA Posts: 1,825
    We could all drive ourselves crazy trying to analyze and rationalize and explain why gold goes up and down and its performance vs the dollar, the pound, the euro and whatever...

    but what it all comes down to is this:

    are you making a profit or taking a loss putting your dollars into gold or silver or platinum? and that is the only question -- and answer -- that matters.

    put all the philosophy aside because in this big world of ours your opinion and my opinion means nothing. the only thing that matters is how much did you pay for the gold and how much will you get when you sell it.

    And with that said here is my feeling regarding the original question:

    if you need the money sell. if you don't need the money hold. and no one ever went broke selling at a profit.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    All due respect, Alan - the best way to not get blindsided is to pay close attention. That's what all the analysis is about in the first place. Nobody's predicting anything - what I see is people discussing the possibilities so as not to overlook something important.

    One thing everyone with an inkling of monetary knowledge is familiar with is that central banks' monopoly over the issuance of fiat currency is a destructive process of wealth redistribution - ultimately enslaving nations under a perpetual sea of debt. International money power ends up controlling the targeted nations' media, government (including the courts) and, via mercantilist corporate activities, its natural resources and productive capacity.

    from Kitco forums - roadrunner


    All that becomes more obvious the older I get, rr. The concern I have as a precious metals retirement investor - is that the international banks will find ways via our court system and government to block our attempts to shield our assets from irresponsible governmental policies (by holding precious metals) while their destruction of wealth and redistribution of wealth takes place.

    In the case of gun control, when they can't outlaw the weapons, they require onerous registration and put as many restrictive rules in place as possible. Relating this type of government drone mentality to gold & silver - the failed attempt at required reporting of transactions over $600 is just the beginning, I fear. We need another administration to further legitimize gold and silver as real money.

    The roadblock in government is the pathological need to give freebies away in order to buy cheap votes. You can't create gold & silver out of thin air in order to give it away. You have to steal it or tax it first, and that would bring the issue of government overreach to the forefront in a big hurry. I think the voting right should require a modicum of literacy, tax payment history and proof of I.D. Sound money and basic common sense would solve about 75% of our problems overnight.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    if you need the money sell. if you don't need the money hold. and no one ever went broke selling at a profit.

    There is an exception to this. That is, selling at a "profit" during periods of inflation/fiat depreciation can easily give you a net loss. We've witnessed this in the stock market
    from 2000 to 2007 where stocks reached new nominal highs (14,000 vs 12,000) yet when inflation was factored in, you lost money (dollar depreciated 38% along with
    capital gains taxes of 15%). So yes, one can go broke selling at a profit as inflation eats into those imaginery and very taxable gains. This is the intended purpose behind our
    current economic/financial system....the little guy is generally going broke playing by the rules with 401K's, IRA's, etc. Paying taxes on imaginery gains is the final insult.

    Jmski52, that quote you attributed to me was taken from the Kitco gold forums. I put it in italics so it wouldn't be attributed to me. Wish I could have come with something so
    well put on my own though. If Kitco would allow links to their threads I would have linked it directly.

    roadrunner


    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • JulioJulio Posts: 2,501
    I'm not I already took mine when it was higher. I sold 20% of what I had and am patiently sitting on the rest. Silver is starting to run and lately is outperforming gold. I can't say what my sell price is yet but it might get here faster than I think. The price of Gold and silver are getting a boost from the flight to safty. jws
    image
  • hammered54hammered54 Posts: 750 ✭✭✭

    I walk into my local b&m (or whatever) plop down my silver/gold and ask....how much? if I agree he hands me CASH I walk away...pretty simple.
    now if I'm buying I just reverse said rule.

    what tax do we speak of.............
    call me crazy but I thought that was the whole reason for holding physical.
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  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,793 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I walk into my local b&m (or whatever) plop down my silver/gold and ask....how much? if I agree he hands me CASH I walk away...pretty simple.
    now if I'm buying I just reverse said rule.

    what tax do we speak of.............
    call me crazy but I thought that was the whole reason for holding physical. >>


    We speak of capital gains tax that the IRS says is owed on all income. When you sell you have income. Bullion is taxed as a "collectible" at the 28% rate. You get to reduce the income by your cost. Save purchase records. A lot of people don't claim the income. Any sale done with the computer (ebay) or deposits of money into the bank leave a trackable trail to your income. Best to review the IRS site on capital gains and at least know the rules. Swim at your own risk. Me, I just give them their share and sleep better.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • mrearlygoldmrearlygold Posts: 17,858 ✭✭✭
    Actually the opposite and am sitting on a pile of capital to buy more in the form of a bunch of kilo bars ( gold ).
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    roadrunner, attribution fixed.image

    The sooner people understand taxation of imaginary gains due to inflation, the sooner our elected representatives will be held responsible for their spending and taxing.

    You can do all the cash transactions you want and fail to report the tax on any of those gains, but that doesn't relieve you of the penalties if you should eventually be caught up in a tax evasion charge. There is a legal difference between tax avoidance (legal) and tax evasion (illegal). It would be wise to brush up on the differences between the two.

    Having said that, let's be clear about it - many of the politicians who make these laws are the first to break them. Our chief enforcer of the tax law was never penalized for his tax evasion of 4 years running and only paid the last two of those years when he knew that he was going to be confirmed as SoT. Our chief law enforcement guy won't prosecute criminals because he is too busy running political inquisitions for his political bosses.

    I don't have the answer to the bigger problems, but I have the answer to the smaller ones that affect me personally. First on my list - don't keep alot of assets in paper until the system is fixed - and that might be awhile.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • MoneyLAMoneyLA Posts: 1,825
    The problem with being "philosophical" about your investing is that you could plant your feet in quicksand thinking you are doing the "right thing."

    This is why philosophical investing is actually emotional investing.

    Take the emotion out of it.

    That is the beauty of technical analysis -- there is no emotion in it.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,793 ✭✭✭✭✭
    IMHO technical analysis of PMs is highly overrated. Simple economic analysis/understanding and a knack for human behavior (crowd mentality) serve me much better. Fear and greed drive markets, PMs included.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • percybpercyb Posts: 3,324 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>if you need the money sell. if you don't need the money hold. and no one ever went broke selling at a profit.

    There is an exception to this. That is, selling at a "profit" during periods of inflation/fiat depreciation can easily give you a net loss.

    roadrunner >>



    Good reminder!
    "Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
  • hammered54hammered54 Posts: 750 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>I walk into my local b&m (or whatever) plop down my silver/gold and ask....how much? if I agree he hands me CASH I walk away...pretty simple.
    now if I'm buying I just reverse said rule.

    what tax do we speak of.............
    call me crazy but I thought that was the whole reason for holding physical. >>


    We speak of capital gains tax that the IRS says is owed on all income. When you sell you have income. Bullion is taxed as a "collectible" at the 28% rate. You get to reduce the income by your cost. Save purchase records. A lot of people don't claim the income. Any sale done with the computer (ebay) or deposits of money into the bank leave a trackable trail to your income. Best to review the IRS site on capital gains and at least know the rules. Swim at your own risk. Me, I just give them their share and sleep better. >>




    that all good and all but.....just put cash in pocket...spend it when needed....makes no sense to put money in bank where it makes no money anyhow.

    its not income I would think it would be a capital gain ..no? and that would be only 15% yes?
    and who...really who does this ? you all can say you do but I do not believe it one bit...were talking physical now not paper silver.
    I refuse to give the Gov. one penny that they do not deserve so they can piss it away on some ( in Algores own words ) bull ship!

    if your a "stacker" you stack for that day......if you "invest" then play the game.
    no one need know what I do........well untill now.............but prove it.
    Successful Transactions.
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  • mrearlygoldmrearlygold Posts: 17,858 ✭✭✭
    So if it hits $2500/oz will anyone wish......."if I only knew" image
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    So if it hits $2500/oz will anyone wish......."if I only knew"image

    if?image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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