Home Precious Metals

flashback to 1999

Now that gold has climbed so high, it's informative to look back at a 1999 article from the BBC. If anything this shows how in a single decade things can change so dramatically. I read it as a cautionary tale -- while we can celebrate the climb let's not assume anything about the future 5 or 10 years out.

Gold prices slide to 20-year low

Gold prices have slipped below $270 an ounce in London for the first time for more than 20 years. Gold was fixed at 269.50 dollars an ounce, down more than two dollars from Tuesday.

The price of the precious metal has slumped more than 6% over the last month following the Bank of England's announcement that it plans to sell more than half of its gold stocks. The precious metal was then hit further by signs that the US monetary authorities might raise interest rates, which would boost the yields returned on holding dollars.

"Gold is reacting like a currency rather than a commodity, finding a new equilibrium", said Andy Smith, a gold expert at Mitsui Bussan Commodities. "The damaging reverberations of such a symbolically-charged action by the Treasury will be felt for many months to come," said the World Gold Council, which represents producers and users.

Tarnished attraction of gold

Gold was once one of the most valuable assets in the world but as more and more of the shiny metal swills around its value drops. Critically, for banks it now gives relatively poor returns and several have been selling off their reserves, including the Australians, Belgians, Dutch and the Swiss. Even the International Monetary Fund is planning to sell up to 300 tonnes of gold to help fund debt relief for poor countries.

The significance of Switzerland is that its 2,600 tonnes of gold are the third-biggest reserve of holdings in the world, after the US and the eurozone area. Over the last 20 years bonds and shares have given better returns and many banks and finance institutions are now replacing gold with better yielding investments. The Swiss reckon the cost of lost interest in holding gold rather than US Treasury bonds is equivalent to around $400 a year per household.

The value of gold has failed to keep pace with inflation, it has underperformed shares and bonds and has been expensive to store. Banks, like everyone else, are under pressure to improve the returns on their reserves.

The European Central Bank has decided to hold only 15% of its reserves in gold, well below the 30% average of most of the countries in the eurozone. Gold prices soared in the 1970s when investors were worried about inflation and feared that paper money would lose value.

The fall in the gold price now is a reflection of the non-inflationary climate in the world economy.

Link.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
Sign In or Register to comment.