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If gold keeps a steady pace up, At What Price Will You Call "Bubble" ??

MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,091 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Precious Metals
If it keeps climbing without a serious correction, what price will you call the price in bubble territory??



I'm thinking 2200-2300.


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Comments

  • storm888storm888 Posts: 11,701 ✭✭✭

    Something over $2500+.

    Tho, it will likely go MUCH higher.

    A $200+ pullback between now and October would be a VERY
    healthy thing.

    2012, when/if it becomes apparent that a DC shakeup is on
    the way, will tank gold; but, the new gang will be unable to
    save America and gold will continue to be fashionable between
    2013 and 2016.

    Any time is a good time to be an accumulator.





    Folks Who Bite Get Bitten. Folks Who Don't Bite Get Eaten.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,863 ✭✭✭✭✭
    When the governments who keep pumping out fiat money and out-of-control monetized debt bring their budgets under control and start paying down their debt levels, then gold will be in a bubble.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • pmcollectourpmcollectour Posts: 1,211 ✭
    The bubble will occur in the $10,000 to $20,000 range.

    I know it sounds crazy, but $1750 gold sounded crazy when gold was at $300/oz.
  • SonorandesertratSonorandesertrat Posts: 5,695 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>If it keeps climbing without a serious correction, what price will you call the price in bubble territory??



    I'm thinking 2200-2300. >>




    Much higher, I think. Probably above $3K/oz. Economic problems in the U.S., Europe, Japan aren't going to be solved in a few years. Meanwhile, the Chinese and Indians will continue to buy gold, forcing the price upward.
    Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA

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  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If it goes up steady with the usual mini pullbacks a bubble is less likely to form obviously. I don't know the answer to your question. It's a moving target in a non-static enviroment. MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
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  • DoubleEagle59DoubleEagle59 Posts: 8,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
    $8000
    "Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)

    "“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)

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  • WegWeg Posts: 544


    << <i>When the governments who keep pumping out fiat money and out-of-control monetized debt bring their budgets under control and start paying down their debt levels, then gold will be in a bubble. >>



    Bingo.
    Remember, I'm pullen for ya; we're all in this together.---Red Green---
  • 57loaded57loaded Posts: 4,967 ✭✭✭
    ~ $2k for THIS month, but it would only be a correction, not a bubble-gold-go-bye-bye

  • cladkingcladking Posts: 28,657 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I was just talking about this earlier.

    "Bubbles" exist when everyone is on board. If everyone were parking much wealth in gold
    it would be at about $30,000. If we remonetized gold it would be at about $250,000. Anything
    over $1,000,000 per ounce would have to be called a bubble.

    In the real world everyone isn't going to get on the same page on this issue unless there is a
    collapse and then gold wouldn't be denominated in US dollars anyway.

    I'm looking for $2100 near term still. If it overshoots this significantly then it's a bubble.
    Tempus fugit.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It'll top out at about $1920 and head down from there over the next couple of years, will probably be about $1250 by July 2013 image

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,825 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>It'll top out at about $1920 and head down from there over the next couple of years, will probably be about $1250 by July 2013 image >>


    It'll bottom out around $1250 in July 2013 and head on up to $2000+ from there. image

    Realizing the historical role of gold as real money, I don't believe it can even achieve a bubble - it only reflects sentiment on the value of alternatives. Sure, it will reach highs, revisit lows as that sentiment changes, but unlike tulip bulbs or dot.coms it will always serve as a baramoter of economic certainty/uncertainty. Maybe it is shiny so it can reflect economic conditions.

    I wouldn't call $1800 gold a bubble when in fact that is less than twice it's production cost. When you look at historical bubbles and the peak prices vs. cost/valuation, $1800 gold is far from being legitmately declared a bubble.

    Besides, the FED would never let gold reach a bubble. image

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,141 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Assets are usually in a bubble when their prices increase 6-8x over a 5-10 yr period. If the price increase is greater and over a shorter period of time the resulting crash will be more pronounced. Gold and silver are excellent examples of this as are/ were the DOW and NASDAQ. China, Russia and oil are other great case studies.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • guitarwesguitarwes Posts: 9,266 ✭✭✭


    << <i>It'll top out at about $1920 and head down from there over the next couple of years, will probably be about $1250 by July 2013 image >>



    Great call. Now, if your crystal ball had only given you this information 2 years ago we'd all be better off.....

    Dang time stamp.
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  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,863 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Do you think that there might possibly be a debt bubble?
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,141 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Do you think that there might possibly be a debt bubble? >>



    No, not yet. Debt is an interesting asset as it has a finite life.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,825 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Do you think that there might possibly be a debt bubble? >>



    No, not yet. Debt is an interesting asset as it has a finite life. >>


    One man's asset is another man's liability.

    What's the shelf life on this debt?

    There is a debt bubble and it has been popping on the personal level since 2008. The soverign debt bubble continues to be fueled by make believe money and taxpayer sacrafice. Let's hope there is no finite life to this one, it can only be ugly.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,141 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I don't believe it can even achieve a bubble

    It did 33 years ago.

    Gold has proven to be both a good and terrible investment or store of value and it will continue to do so in the future. The same can be said for real estate, bonds, stocks and most other assets. The timing of such investments is the key. Dont rely on hype or religion or fundamentals to preserve wealth.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,863 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Debt is an interesting asset as it has a finite life.

    Apparently, if it's managed poorly enough the rollovers will compound and grow exponentially. Hence, the creation of even more debt to keep rates low on subsequent rollovers.

    If you don't think that the dollar is toast, you are ignoring the trade equation. How long do you figure the rest of the world will tolerate financing the US and US consumption, especially when they get burned every time? The only remaining alternatives are 1) massive cutbacks in services & entitlements or 2) high rates of monetary inflation.

    Ths math doesn't lie. Politicians and bankers do, but the math doesn't.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,141 ✭✭✭✭✭
    especially when they get burned every time?

    Can you please explain this to me?

    No I don't think the dollar is toast. But if you want to see what happens when your currency is based in a pile of rocks, check out the Aussie dollar-- in free fall the last 2 months. Australian assets just got 15% cheaper for those with toasted US dollars.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,825 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Banks survive because of debt. It is their purpose in life. They finance homes, toasters, educations, governments and even wars. If there is not enough demand for it, they are powerful enough to create demand. The housing crash proved that.



    << <i>Australian assets just got 15% cheaper for those with toasted US dollars. >>


    The best looking contestant in the ugly pig contest is still ugly.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,141 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Banks survive because of debt. It is their purpose in life. They finance homes, toasters, educations, governments and even wars. If there is not enough demand for it, they are powerful enough to create demand. The housing crash proved that.



    << <i>Australian assets just got 15% cheaper for those with toasted US dollars. >>


    The best looking contestant in the ugly pig contest is still ugly. >>



    And that other "currency" got 25% cheaper for those with toasted US dollars. So who's the ugly pig now? LOL Come on derryb, thats funny. Laugh a little. The weekend is here. Grab a few beers, fire up the grill, invite a few friends, and talk about something other than ugly pigs, conspiracies and crooked politicians. It will be good for your heart--well, unless you are drinking Guinness and cooking Polish kielbasi--then go in moderation.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    does the sun ever shine in derrybville? imageimage

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • yellowkidyellowkid Posts: 5,486 ✭


    << <i>Do you think that there might possibly be a debt bubble? >>

    image

    My biggest worry regarding the nation's economic outlook.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,825 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>does the sun ever shine in derrybville? imageimage >>


    sunny florida? All the time except when it comes to the nation's economic outlook.

    Did catch a few economic rays yesterday with this one.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

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