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"Double D's"

renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
Double Dip recession?

It looks more and more like a 50-50 chance according to some of the t-heads.

If so, will we revisit some of those Fall 2008 PM lows?

Maybe not "those" lows. But relative lows, let's say $1,200 and $18 respectively before reaching higher highs.

Comments

  • If unemployment has gone up, with housing prices continuing to fall, the government spending more and more every day; when pray tell, did the first recession end?
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>If unemployment has gone up, with housing prices continuing to fall, the government spending more and more every day; when pray tell, did the first recession end? >>



    Exactly.

    The benchmarks have been so manipulated the numbers have been trained to lie.

    I heard Sen. Rand Paul say yesterday that inflation would be around 10% if calculated by 1970's standards.

    Stag-cession?
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,102 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The economy will continue to behave this way for another 10-15 years. Fits and starts.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,378 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yeah, I'm of the mindset that we're still in the "first recession". Just driving around my neighborhood, a low-mid 100s hood in the burbs, seeing the stream of foreclosures/short sales/for rent tells me the real story.

    Stuff is going for half of what we paid, not a big amount at all, in 2003. Coincidentally, about where the original prices were when this subdivision was built in 83/84.
  • dpooledpoole Posts: 5,940 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Yeah, I'm of the mindset that we're still in the "first recession". Just driving around my neighborhood, a low-mid 100s hood in the burbs, seeing the stream of foreclosures/short sales/for rent tells me the real story. >>



    ...not to mention all the empty shells in the strip shopping centers.
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,378 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Yeah, I'm of the mindset that we're still in the "first recession". Just driving around my neighborhood, a low-mid 100s hood in the burbs, seeing the stream of foreclosures/short sales/for rent tells me the real story. >>



    ...not to mention all the empty shells in the strip shopping centers. >>



    Yup, all the while they're building more new ones across the street, that sit empty as well.
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The economy will continue to behave this way for another 10-15 years. Fits and starts. >>



    Rhyming Japan from 1989 and on. It's a demographic issue also. Japan's aging population had a 20 year head start on us.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,793 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Have VXX in the bullpen warming up. 11,000 Dow and I'm jumping in. In 09 when DJIA bottomed at around 6500, VXX peaked at around $475. VXX is currently selling for around $23. If Dow repeats it's low that's a 20X return on the investment.

    Edited, added the missing zero to 11,000 Dow.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There will be as many "dips" in this recession/depression as there are QE-esque programs. As Cohodk said, it's basically going to be one long recession.

    derryb, do you mean S&P 1100 or Dow 11,000?

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,793 ✭✭✭✭✭
    sorry, left off a zero. Dow 11000 is my buy signal for massive quantities of VXX.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    derryb, I like that VXX chart...nice bottoming. I may give it a tumble when time comes.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    << Yeah, I'm of the mindset that we're still in the "first recession". Just driving around my neighborhood, a low-mid 100s hood in the burbs, seeing the stream of foreclosures/short sales/for rent tells me the real story. >>

    ...not to mention all the empty shells in the strip shopping centers. >>

    Yup, all the while they're building more new ones across the street, that sit empty as well.


    Sounds like an interesting area. May we ask what general location of the country this is?
    Edit: checked yer profile, is it still Atlanta GA? The real story observed there is unlikely to be the same the real story everywhere in the USA

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,378 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i><< Yeah, I'm of the mindset that we're still in the "first recession". Just driving around my neighborhood, a low-mid 100s hood in the burbs, seeing the stream of foreclosures/short sales/for rent tells me the real story. >>

    ...not to mention all the empty shells in the strip shopping centers. >>

    Yup, all the while they're building more new ones across the street, that sit empty as well.


    Sounds like an interesting area. May we ask what general location of the country this is?
    Edit: checked yer profile, is it still Atlanta GA? The real story observed there is unlikely to be the same the real story everywhere in the USA >>



    Burbs of Atlanta, yeah. But the general area where I'm at has a flipside to it, the neighborhood across the street from me is Sugarloaf Country Club, chock full of professional athlete millionaires. They're fine, it's the lower middle class hoods like mine that are failing (we're in a smaller house than we really should be in but that's fine by me - starter home).

    The new subdivision they've been building for 4-5 years now right next to me is building again after a long break, but the same size houses that are going up new are now 100-150k less than the initial round of homes they built/sold.
  • nam812nam812 Posts: 10,579 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This thread could have had potential with such an exciting title. image
  • johnny9434johnny9434 Posts: 28,307 ✭✭✭✭✭
    kinda saw this coming. i really dont think we were out of the first one totally. jmo
  • morgansforevermorgansforever Posts: 8,461 ✭✭✭✭✭
    <<not to mention all the empty shells in the strip shopping centers. >>

    Nothing in my local strip mall but a Dollar Store, and a Chinese run nail salon, that's it.
    20 vacant store fronts, been that way for 5+ years.
    World coins FSHO Hundreds of successful BST transactions U.S. coins FSHO
  • 57loaded57loaded Posts: 4,967 ✭✭✭


    << <i>kinda saw this coming. i really dont think we were out of the first one totally. jmo >>



    i agree, we never were.

    even after 2000 there was a masquerade party where no one wanted to take their masks off.

    the dotcom thingy sorta was a catalyst to the mess we are in now.

    and i suppose one could go further back and blame Japan before that

    then did we do the right thing in the 80's

  • We will become a Federal State: No one will be working but the Fedeal Gobernment, you and your family will become the servents of what the Guberment wants you to be, a servant to their forces which will police the world.....Sound familiar....it has been working on us for the last 35 years...it is just comng to a head when the people are the dumbest in all of American History.....If people are to lazy to work are mentally disadvataged because the system has let them down....then Look at China's army...they just might come a calling....
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