Negative outlook on silver from a reputable metals bug

derryb

"Silver is over priced, and has experienced a bear market rally of ~20%. It is clearly demonstrating that it is not a store of value in times of uncertainty. At today's price, Silver is again a strong sale."

Schmidt's Gold Thoughts

DrBuster

Let silver go down to his projected $33 so I can get more for my usual allotment.

tincup

Would not upset me if it goes to $33 per ounce. Not that I personally think it will....

mrearlygold

So he thinks the dollar is in good shape? The debt is no problemo ( USA USA USA ). Right. Check.

There's an a ss for every seat






The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can't pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government's reckless fiscal policies.
March 16, 2006 Senator Obama

carew4me

I see your expert and raise you one:

Goldman Sachs on the GDP in Dec 2010:
We have raised our sights for US growth in 2011 and expect further acceleration in real GDP in 2012. Specifically, our revised view calls for growth to remain at last quarter’s 2.5% annual rate through early 2011 and then increase over the next year to a 4% annual rate. On an annual average basis, we now expect real GDP to increase 2.7% (annual average basis) in 2011, versus 2.0% previously, and to increase 3.6% in 2012.

1QTR GDP numbers were recently released (the revised number...you know the real one that comes out about 2 months after the initial lie of %1.9 when they have all the factual data)...
You may have read about it ,

let me save your time: .04%


Go with your gut.

jmski52

Until maybe 2006 or so, I'd have bought into the idea that the usual market forces were at work. If that were still true, then maybe silver and gold would have been considered overbought.

However, it bears repeating that this isn't really about gold and silver at all. This is about the dollar, and this is about the bond markets. The bond markets are the elephant in the room, and they will react to policy. Right now, there is no policy - period. This makes the bond markets unhappy.

In Weimar Germany, circa 1921 - you could have made the arguments that precious metals were "overbought".

We aren't in Kansas anymore, and in fact we aren't in 1985 USA anymore.

roadrunner

Ned Schmidt?

I stopped following him altogether over a year ago. Like Prechter, Rosen, Nadler and others, his calls on gold and silver became mostly bearish, and in many cases just wrong. I'd like to see what he was recommending when silver was at $18 last summer. Of the several dozen analysts that routinely post on the major PM sites, I'd place him near the bottom. I'd much rather see what Downey, Maund, Radomski, Bannister, Bevan, Roy-Byrne, Thompson, Droke, Grandich, Jesse, O'Connor, Zeal, etc. have to say first. If there's any doubt after that, I'll read Schmidt too. If I want the bearish and most conservative viewpoint possible, I know who to read. Does it matter that gold is 6.5X since 2001? Heck, the stock market was up around 18X when it finally gave up the ghost in 2000. Oil was up some 12X during its run to $144. I would certainly agree that gold is due for a pullback. Still, it's only 11% above the 200 dma. The last 2 intermediate runs of the past year or so ended at 17%. And the blowouts of 2006-2009 ended at 25-33%. Maybe gold will continue to wind down the distance between itself and the 200 dma on future runs, at least until the final blow off top.

Schmidt will keep on pumping out literature that gold and silver are over-extended. Yeah, they've been like that since $1200/$18. And eventually he'll be right. At that point Ned,
Nadler, and Prechter will all take a bow like they did in 2008 saying they called it right.....yeah, once every 3-5 yrs.

And it's also about $1.14 Quad in bankster bets that they cannot possibly cover without a system wide debt default. The gold price has not even begun to factor in the full unwinding
of this mess. For now, it's just a bunch of numbers marked to model that is kept out of sight and out of mind. But it's still there, esp. the $200 TRILL in otc interest rate contracts that our biggest 25 banks carry.

roadrunner

57loaded

one needs to remember; the tail never wags the dog.

mrearlygold

<< <i>
We aren't in Kansas anymore, and in fact we aren't in 1985 USA anymore. >>




Buy this and read it one night
America's March Toward Communism [Paperback

lightcycler

<< <i>Ned Schmidt?

I stopped following him altogether over a year ago. Like Prechter, Rosen, Nadler and others, his calls on gold and silver became mostly bearish, and in many cases just wrong. I'd like to see what he was recommending when silver was at $18 last summer. Of the several dozen analysts that routinely post on the major PM sites, I'd place him near the bottom. I'd much rather see what Downey, Maund, Radomski, Bannister, Bevan, Roy-Byrne, Thompson, Droke, Grandich, Jesse, O'Connor, Zeal, etc. have to say first. If there's any doubt after that, I'll read Schmidt too. If I want the bearish and most conservative viewpoint possible, I know who to read. Does it matter that gold is 6.5X since 2001? Heck, the stock market was up around 18X when it finally gave up the ghost in 2000. Oil was up some 12X during its run to $144. I would certainly agree that gold is due for a pullback. Still, it's only 11% above the 200 dma. The last 2 intermediate runs of the past year or so ended at 17%. And the blowouts of 2006-2009 ended at 25-33%. Maybe gold will continue to wind down the distance between itself and the 200 dma on future runs, at least until the final blow off top.

Schmidt will keep on pumping out literature that gold and silver are over-extended. Yeah, they've been like that since $1200/$18. And eventually he'll be right. At that point Ned,
Nadler, and Prechter will all take a bow like they did in 2008 saying they called it right.....yeah, once every 3-5 yrs.

And it's also about $1.14 Quad in bankster bets that they cannot possibly cover without a system wide debt default. The gold price has not even begun to factor in the full unwinding
of this mess. For now, it's just a bunch of numbers marked to model that is kept out of sight and out of mind. But it's still there, esp. the $200 TRILL in otc interest rate contracts that our biggest 25 banks carry.

roadrunner >>



I agree roadrunner. I used to follow prechter. Don't any more. Markets will always move in waves. There will always be pullbacks. I'm not bearish silver but I do think it will drop into the high $20 range. I hold a lot of silver and really dont care. If I'm wrong.....so be it.........wohooooooooooo. If I'm right I will buy a lot more silver. One guy I have followed for 5 plus years that usually has it right is Robert McHugh. Its a subscription service but very reasonable.

halfhunter

<< <i>"I'm not bearish silver but I do think it will drop into the high $20 range." >>



OK . . . Now I'm REALLY confused . . . How the heck is a drop into the 20s NOT bearish ? ! ? !

HH

57loaded

this guy, no about Ag.

RR i did look back for a few minutes in his archives to see if he mentioned anything about silver and could not, just some talk about gold going lower (this was last Jun-Aug 2010)

he could be sorta right about silver short term, but that's all he's said that i could find about silver.

roadrunner

Silver's actual mining costs

Ned Schmidt gets a big ole negative plug in the 3rd to last paragraph. Good timing on this article on showing how miner cash costs are generally useless.
According to the author current all-in costs for a typical silver miner are in the $17-22/oz range.

roadrunner

DuCrozat

<< <i>Silver's actual mining costs

Ned Schmidt gets a big ole negative plug in the 3rd to last paragraph. Good timing on this article on showing how miner cash costs are generally useless.
According to the author current all-in costs for a typical silver miner are in the $17-22/oz range.

roadrunner >>



Makes one wonder if these guys dumped their metals a while back, and just want others to join in their mistake. Misery loves company.