End of the Euro? When?

RedTiger

When will the Euro outlive its usefulness? By end, I mean the major economic powers, not some of the small minor countries perhaps being forced out for a time out. Will that cause average Europeans to focus more on precious metals? As I understanding it, it is only very wealthy Europeans that tend to have any. It is not like the U. S. where there are telemarketers and radio talk shows and ads spreading the message about getting hard assets into the hands of many middle class folks.

For those predicting a quick demise, do understand the nature of Europe (mostly socialist welfare states, some are full time nanny states) and how many in the current political and future class devoted much of their lives towards the dream of the Euro and all it means. For many in the political class the Euro was a 60 year project, a dream, and will not be let go off easily.

Finally, what does it mean for gold and silver? Are citizens in Greece, Ireland, or Italy currently stockpiling gold and silver? I haven't heard of any such news, and would tend to guess no. However, if someone has first hand info to the contrary, I can be educated.

secondrepublic

I don't think the euro is going to disappear in our lifetimes. Sure, some individual countries in the European periphery may leave or be kicked out of it. But the core northern European economies - Germany, Netherlands, France, Austria, Belgium, etc. - will remain in the same currency. Their economies are in synch and it makes no sense for them to have separate currencies, any more than it would make sense for Connecticut, New York, and Massachusetts to each have separate currencies.

I was just in Spain and talked with an older gentleman there about precious metals. He lives in one of the ten biggest cities in Spain, with a population over 300,000 people, and there is not a single place there to buy gold/silver coins or bars. Not one. That's obviously not an easy place to buy gold or silver. My guess is that it's a lot easier in a place like Switzerland or Germany.

Justacommeman

I can see some countries dropping out and others added. The running joke in Europe is that there will be two Euros----The Nero (northern countries) and the Zero (south countries). MJ

Spooly

<< <i>I can see some countries dropping out and others added. The running joke in Europe is that there will be two Euros----The Nero (northern countries) and the Zero (south countries). MJ >>



Now that funny!

derryb

Germany will be the first to bail they have the most to lose with the default of others.

DrBuster

I was having a beer with my Russian and Belarus girls today, showing them the half dollars and slq's that I got the other day as a US history lesson. The euro came up in conversation with the Belarusian - Leena. There's no Euro end anytime soon as the local currency keeps losing value and the Euros get more. Belarus added a zero to the currency recently, and they have no coins at all, the Euro is the dollar...I wouldn't bet against it failing completely anytime soon.

57loaded

good topic
i don't know enough about it to answer thoughtfully

i do feel it is a very complicated financial issue and if the biggest bails, will the US come to the rescue...will the US HAVE to come to the rescue?

massive devaluation in some countries. Germany may need a new, bigger wall.

RedTiger

Oops, I should have added a "just show me the results option." I'm thinking some that voted for the last option, didn't have a strong opinion, and just wanted to see the results. As constructed, I am surprised at 38%+ saying the Euro will last over 40 more years. Has 38% of the forum moved to Euro-Baleyville? The Euro depends on some basic unity remaining with many diverse races that have often hated each other, and many religions, many of which still hate each other.

To me, 40 years seems like a long time in Europe. Their demographics are scary. Almost all Euro countries are seeing population decreases. This means the average age gets higher and higher, with fewer and fewer potential workers available to tax and pay ever increasing healthcare and pensions.

The work ethic has vanished in some parts of Europe if it was ever there. In Spain, 20-somethings often jeer and make fun of people their age that aspire to anything more than a government welfare check or government job. Unemployment runs about 40% for 25 year olds in Spain, and a stunning 21% for the entire economy, and that's the reported number. The reported numbers are likely like the U. S. number, where the real unemployment rate is estimated to be higher than the government number. For the young generation in Spain, work is almost unusual, being on the dole is the new normal. How long can a non-productive country mired in depression stay in the union? I know I asked about major economies, and Spain is on the small side, but it is not a tiny player, like some of the other troubled countries. Greece, wow, what can be said about that. I'm not sure how accurate the picture is, but the reporting seems to paint a picture where the majority seems to think the rest of Europe should pay to support them.

OzzyAndy

<< <i>
I was just in Spain and talked with an older gentleman there about precious metals. He lives in one of the ten biggest cities in Spain, with a population over 300,000 people, and there is not a single place there to buy gold/silver coins or bars. Not one. That's obviously not an easy place to buy gold or silver. My guess is that it's a lot easier in a place like Switzerland or Germany. >>



When I was looking for coin shops in Berlin, came across 2 places selling gold without even looking for them, seemed to be selling exclusively gold so must have a lot of business.


I'd agree that it makes sense for the central countries (Germany, France, Belgium etc) to stay on the euro long term but I'd expect to see other countries drop out in the next 1-2 years maybe.

Bear

If Germany goes, the Euro goes. I do not believe that it was ever a good idea.

Buffalode

I think the survival of the Euro and the EU as they are now will ultimately come down to how much sovereignty the member nations (and their citizens) are willing to cede to a central authority. Eurogroup chairman Juncker said early this month in an interview that "The sovereignty of Greece will be massively limited." I think we will see more countries trade sovereignty for financial assistance over time. Many in those countries will face hardships due to austerity programs and likely see them as "imposed" by the central authority, and resentment and unrest could become worse than has so far been the case in Greeece. It remains to be seen how all of that plays out, but I wonder sometimes if the "unity" is really as strong among the people as it is portrayed by the leadership. My guess is (if it survives) the EU will eventually be a smaller group of the relatively stronger nations with a much more dominant central authority and a stronger Euro.

mrearlygold

When Germany says so